pcd impact assessment on food security in tanzania• oecd, eu and member states have strong...

Consultation Workshop Module 2

Economic and Social Research Foundation (ESRF) & European Centre for Development Policy

Management ECDPM,

17 September 2014 Dar Es Salaam

PCD Impact Assessment on Food Security in

Tanzania

!

I. Introducing the PCD IA pilot in Tanzania: rationale and history, scope and objectives

-Coffee break- II. Module 2: the Tanzania Food Security Profile

•  Rationale •  State of food and nutrition security •  Food security System

•  The agro-food sector: characteristics and challenges •  The agricultural trade profile •  The policy framework

III. Outstanding issues and identifying relevant OECD policies

On the menu today

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I. Introducing the PCD Impact Assessment on food security in

Tanzania

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•  The Rationale Domestic policies of OECD member countries (e.g.

agriculture, trade, investment, science, migration) can have a spill-over impact on developing countries,…

… that impact is not necessarily coherent with the objectives formulated under the policy for development

cooperation of that OECD country

Policy coherence for development (PCD)

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PCD is a conceptual tool aimed at addressing such incoherencies to the benefit of development objectives, e.g.

food security

For example

ECDPM Source: OECD, 2014.

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Prevalent definitions: PCD = … EU

“The EU seeks to minimise contradictions and to build synergies between policies other than development cooperation that have an impact on developing countries, for the benefit of overseas development”

OECD

“The pursuit of development objectives through the systematic promotion of mutually reinforcing policy actions on the part of both OECD and development countries”.

Two-fold implication: “do no harm” and beyond:

1. Make sure all policies are development-friendly 2. Ensure the proactive promotion of development objectives in other policies: exploit synergies

Diverging interpretations and use of the concept of PCD.

PCD IS NOT (only):

•  Coordination with other policies •  Harmonization with other donors •  Adjustment of development policy to other

policies (it is PC for Development)

Prevalent definitions: PCD ≠ …

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Measuring PCD = one of the key PCD building blocks

•  OECD, EU and Member States have strong commitments to enforce PCD, frontrunners include: NL, SE, FIN, DK

•  2008 OECD Ministerial declaration confirmed

commitment to promote PCD, incl. measuring the effects of OECD members’ policies on international development objectives.

•  EU 2012 Council Conclusions on PCD ask for ‘a more evidence-based approach, to further improve monitoring, implementation and follow-up. Relevant baselines, indicators and targets should also be developed including for measuring the impact of PCD in a way which demonstrates clear development results’.

Context

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• Ex-ante check lists and impact assessments of OECD member countries’ policy proposals • Ex-post assessments of OECD policy impact at country-level

Different ways to monitor PCD

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This is where this research project comes in

•  2012: OECD asked ECDPM to develop “a methodology for country-level impact assessments

of PCD on food security” •  July 2013: presentation of a draft toward a

methodology

•  Now two pilot projects to apply, test and fine-tune this methodology in:

•  Tanzania (FIN & OECD) •  Burkina Fasso (SWISS & OECD)

The project: how did we get here?

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General objective: to develop a methodology for identifying and assessing the impacts (+/-) of OECD policies on food security in individual developing countries

Specific objectives: 1.  Help OECD DAC members in pursuing their PCD policy

objectives through providing evidence for policy change domestically and for programme design at country level (e.g. more information to address trade-offs between internal goals & negative externalities on developing countries)

2.  Enable partner countries and civil society to advocate for improved PCD and to address the impacts of incoherencies.

Objectives

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•  5 key principles: i) stakeholder involvement; ii) deductive reasoning; iii) disaggregation of impact; iv) mixed methods.

•  For a variety of audiences and users: public

good •  Meant to be done relatively quickly and with

limited resources. •  Modular and flexible. No straightjacket that

researchers have to follow to the letter.

•  Designed to pick up on the effects of public policies. •  While acknowledging the effects of other

external factors beyond the scope of this study (e.g. Climate Change)

The Methodology: how does it look like?

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1. Getting started: considerations and decisions before launching the exercise

A modular, step-by-step approach

2. The country food security profile: the FS system, determinants and FS situation

3. Establish a route of impact: causal linkages with OECD policies

4. In-country contextualisation and verification of causal linkages > response strategies

5. Communication strategy and follow up

•  Very straightforward: key factors to consider before starting the assessment: •  What country/ group of countries? •  Country buy in/ local partners. •  Team composition.

Module 1: Getting started

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Module 2: Country food security profile Output

indicators

OECD Policies

Other factors

(e.g. other policies, Climate

change,…)

•  The idea is to take the potentially relevant OECD policies, identified in module 2, and to draw linkages “on paper” of how the impact would be transmitted.

•  Main aim of the module is to make the IA

solid from a “theoretical” point of view

•  Relatively straightforward for some effects (e.g. tariffs), very complicated for others (e.g. agricultural subsidies and price transmission).

Module 3: Verifying causal linkages

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•  Verify theory through field research •  Three aims:

ü  Contextualize and further explore the theoretical causal chains developed in module 3

ü  Formulate conclusions. ü  Define response strategy options.

- for OECD country policies. - for adaptation/advocacy strategies by local partners.

Module 4: In-country research

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•  Messages will differ depending on the targeted audience (NGOs, in country embassies, partner govnts, etc).

•  Communication Plan should formulate -What information is relevant to which stakeholder audience -  How to best approach which audience, through which

communication channels

Module 5: communication

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•  Stakeholder involvement is one of the 5 overarching principles of the methodology:

•  Not an (exclusively) desk-based project •  Should be a “process” as much as a study. •  Inclusive, consultative process per module to enhance

chances of follow-up.

Today: •  We present the methodology, •  … discuss initial findings of Module 2… •  and pick your brains on what could be the potentially

relevant OECD policy externalities for analysis in Module 3.

So, where does this workshop come in?

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Q & A - coffee break -

II. Module 2

The Tanzania Food Security Profile -initial findings for discussion-

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•  Rationale •  The food security situation •  The food security system

- The agro-food sector - Agricultural trade flows - The policy framework

•  What? A comprehensive, yet straightforward profile of the

country’s food security situation and the key underlying dynamics that determine that situation.

•  How? i) Mapping key socio-demographic dynamics of food

insecurity ii) Snapshot of the food security system: Agro-food

sector; Trade; Should allow to identify key crops, consumption and

production patters, trade flows and (N)TBs, price trends, etc.

Rationale Module 2

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The Food and Nutrition Security Situation of Tanzania

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At national Level: •  +- 15.7 million people undernourished •  62nd out of 78 on the GHI (IFPRI, 2013) •  Prevalence of undernourishment is improving in the

last decade

The food security situation

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Prevalence of undernourishment (%, 3-year average)

Source: FAOSTAT, 2014

•  Stunted growth: 42.5% > 5yr olds; too short for their age, indicates chronic malnutrition, poor feeding practices and regular intestinal infections.

•  Wasting: 4.9% > 5 yr olds; low weight-for-height, indicates acute malnutrition

•  Underweight: 16.2%; low weight-for-age, indicates a combination of chronic and acute malnutrition (TDHS, 2010)

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Rain-fed agriculture > hunger is seasonal and climate dependent Two rainfall regimes: i) Unimodal (S, C, W; Dec-April) ii) Bimodal (N, E,NE, N Coast; Sept-Oct & Feb/March – June)

Spatial, temporal and demographic dimensions of food

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-  Bimodal zones = more draught prone, but more food diversity

-  Food shortages (price spikes) most common running up between Oct – March

Source: Fewsnet, 2014

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Source: USAID, 2010.

At household level: WFP Comprehensive Food Security Vulnerability Analysis

(CFSVA, 2012):

•  8.3% of households (HH) has Poor Dietary Intake (PDI) = insufficient calorie intake and dietary diversity

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Daily per capita energy intake by food groups, selected households, (CFSVA, 2010-11)

•  In rural areas (87% of Tanzania’s PDI HHs were in rural areas vs. 69% of all Tanzania’s households);

•  Among poor HHs (66% of poor dietary intake households fell below the poverty line vs. 28% of all households in Tanzania);

•  Among HHs in which the head worked in the farming sector (82% of PDI HH-heads worked in farming vs. 64% of all household heads);

•  Among households in which the head was unemployed (8.0% of poor dietary intake household heads were unemployed vs. 5.4% of all household heads in Tanzania).

•  In female-headed households - slightly more prone to food insecurity (in 2010/11, 11% of the female-headed households suffered from PDI, compared to 7% of the male-headed households)

PDI over-represented:

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Food security Situation = outcome dimension

Access Availability Utilization

Stability

Tanzania Food Security System

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Trade Pattern

Regulatory frame work

Tanzania agri food

sub sector

The Agro-food sector

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•  Role of agriculture sector within Tanzania economy

•  Identifying key consumption and production commodities

•  Identifying key characteristics and challenges in production and processing

Rationale

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•  Crop production takes up the bulk share of agricultural activity and total GDP share, as food and cash crops account for 65% and 10% of the agricultural GDP respectively.

•  Crop production also accounts for about 70% of rural incomes, which largely depend on the production of staple foods.

•  Crops sub sector contributes 17.6% to the national GDP

•  Livestock sub sector contributes 4.6% of the total GDP

•  Fisheries sub-sector contributes about 2.6 percent of the Tanzania GDP (URT, 2013a)

Tanzania Agri food system

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Tanzania agri food system cont…

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Share of agriculture sector is declining over time……is it structural transformation or lack of agriculture sector diversification and low productivity?

•  Agri-food system is made up of 80% of subsistence farmers producing on 0.2-2.5ha of land, using rudimentary technologies

•  Tanzania is rich with natural resources, an abundance of arable land (44 million ha), 29.4 million ha potential for irrigation and adequate water sources for both gravity-fed and well-based resources (Binswanger-Mkhize and Gautam, 2010).

•  Indeed it has a potential to become a major exporter of food crops, especially maize and rice, to the East Africa region and the Horn of Africa

•  Widely consumed food commodities are maize, cassava, rice, banana, pulses

•  Low consumed food commodities but important source of diet are meat&milk and fish

Tanzania Agri food system cont…

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Cassava has high productivity compared to rice and maize

Production and consumption pattern

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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Yie

lds

ton

/h

a

Cassava Maize Rice, paddy


But cassava is not highly subsidized compared to rice and maize

Livestock production

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Source: MAFC, 2013

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Thou

san

ds

Eggs, hen, in shell (N) Meat cattle (ton) Meat sheep and goat (ton) Milk, whole fresh cow (liters) Milk, whole fresh goat (liters)

Whole milk production from cow is relatively higher than from goat

Number of eggs produced is still very low

Beef production is below 350,000 tons despite of having more than 18,000,000 herd of cattle

Food commodities consumption

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Crops


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

kcal

/ca

pit

a/d

ay

Bananas Cassava Maize Pulses, Other Rice (Milled Equivalent) Wheat

Maize consumption is higher than other crops followed by cassava and rice

Food commodities consumption cont….

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Livestock products


Livestock consumption equivalent is high for whole fresh milk than other livestock products in the country

0 200 400 600 800

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Dom

esti

c su

pp

ly (

ton

s)

Thou

san

ds

Bovine Meat Eggs Fish Meal

Food prices trends

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Maize

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2004

-20

04-

2004

-20

05-

2005

-Av

erag

2006

-20

06-

2007

-20

07-

2007

-20

08-

2008

-20

09-

2009

-20

09-

2010

-20

10-

Aver

ag20

11-

2011

-20

12-

2012

-20

12-

2013

-

Pri

ce (

US

D/

MT)

Arusha

Dar-Es-Salaam

Iringa

Mbeya

Rukwa

Tabora

Int' Price

Despite subsidization of maize production, local maize prices are higher than international prices

Food prices….cont

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Rice

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

20

04

-01

2

00

4-0

6

20

04

-11

2

00

5-0

3

20

05

-08

A

vera

ge

20

06

-05

2

00

6-1

0

20

07

-02

2

00

7-0

7

20

07

-12

2

00

8-0

4

20

08

-09

2

00

9-0

1

20

09

-06

2

00

9-1

1

20

10

-03

2

01

0-0

8

Ave

rag

e 2

01

1-0

5

20

11

-10

2

01

2-0

2

20

12

-07

2

01

2-1

2

20

13

-04

Pri

ce U

SD

?MT Arusha

Dar-Es-Salaam

Mbeya

Morogoro

Shinyanga

Tabora

Int' Price

Rice prices similarly are higher than international prices

q  In adequate access to improved inputs • Tanzanian farmers use fertilizer on average 19.3 kg/ha, compared to 100 and 120 kg/ha in Kenya and South Africa respectively • Only 16.8% of households used improved seeds and many farmers retain seed from their prior year cereal or vegetable crop and are therefore less likely to buy new seed every year

Underlying challenges facing agro food sub sector

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q  Lack of irrigation infrastructure • only 490,392 ha are currently under irrigation while the total potential area for irrigation development is 29.4 million ha.

q  low level of value addition and storage infrastructure • Tanzania exports unprocessed agricultural and livestock products • MAFC estimates such post harvest losses at 30% to 70% due to lack of storage and processing facilities for cereals, vegetables and fruits

q High inflation of food prices hampers access to adequate food

Underlying challenges facing agro food sub sector

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•  The state of Tanzania’s infrastructure for transport connecting major regions has improved but feeder roads to trunk roads and also to railways is relatively poor and forms a major impediment to connect surplus and deficit regions

•  Transport costs for international trade with Tanzania are very high as well, despite its favourable geographic position alongside the Indian Ocean (URT, 2013a).

Underlying challenges facing agro food sub sector cont…

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Trade in agricultural commodities

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•  Traditional Agriculture exports contribute 13 percent of total export earnings to Tanzania (BoT,2013)

•  These include tobacco, tea, coffee, cotton, sugar, sisal,

and horticultural crops (eg vegetables)

•  The main trading partners include India, China, Japan, EU member countries, United Arab Emirates, and USA EU member countries trading with Tanzania depending on specific agricultural commodities

•  Maize and rice are widely traded within the region to

DRC, Kenya, and Horn of Africa

Trade in Agriculture

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There has been a general increase in export earnings from cash crops since early 2000s

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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1992 1997 2002 2007 2012

US

D M

illio

n

Cash Crops Export Earnings

Coffee

Cotton

Tea

Tobacco

Cashewnuts

Source: NBS, 2013

•  Tanzania’s tobacco sub-sector is a success story in the country’s agricultural domain and this success has been facilitated primarily through the introduction of contract farming (ESRF, 2013)

•  It is the leading traditional export, bringing

about USD 350 million in 2012

•  It employs about 70,000 farmers; mostly smallholder farmers

Tobacco

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Tobacco attracts good market to the OECD Countries

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0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

OECD REGIONAL (SADC+EAC) ROW

Per

cen

tag

e

Leading Export Destination blocs for Tobacco

Source: UNCOMTRADE 2014

Belgium and Germany taking the lead

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Belgium Germany Netherlands UK Zimbabwe

Leading Export destination States for Tobacco


•  This is the fifth leading cash crop in Tanzania

•  Employs not less than 50,000 families and Directly or indirectly affects as many as 2 million Tanzanians

•  On average brings about USD 25 million; with recent leap to USD 50 million in 2012

Tea

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Tea…Relatively traded regionally

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%


Per

cen

tag

e

Leading Tea Export Destination Partner Blocs


….Kenya and UK getting the most

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0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

Netherlands Kenya Pakistan South Africa UK

Leading Tea Export destination States


•  Tanzania’s second most important export commodity, after Tobacco

•  Accounts for 14% of its agricultural exports and 4% of its total exports during the period 2004-2011

•  More than 90% of the coffee is produced by smallholder farmers and provides direct incomes to some 80 000 households and livelihoods to 2.5 million people

Coffee

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Coffee…OECD’s favorite

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0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%


Coffee Export destination Blocs


More than 50 percent going to Germany and Japan

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Germany Japan Italy USA Netherlands

Leading Coffee Export destination States


•  Constitute only a small share of agricultural production in Tanzania

•  But, represents on average 10% of the country’s total agricultural exports.

•  Only marginal shares of the production are consumed domestically

•  Warehouse receipt system has been put in place in 2008; where all cashew nuts produced is to be auctioned via cooperatives at auctions managed by the Cashew Board of Tanzania

Cashewnut

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Cashewnuts…thinly traded with OECD Countries

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OECD 1%

REGIONAL (SADC+EAC)

0%

ROW 99%

Cashewnuts Export destination blocs


……India taking it all

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India 96%

Singapore 2%

UAE 1%

Canada 1%

Leading Export destination states


•  One of Tanzania’s largest export crops after coffee and tobacco

•  Contributes to 24% of the total agricultural exports and 4% of total exports (MAFAP, 2013)

•  An estimated average of 400 000 ha of Tanzanian arable land is dedicated to cotton production

•  Cotton production takes place in the western zone (Shinyanga, Mwanza and to a lesser extent Mara and Tabora

•  On average 70% of the total cotton lint production is exported (2005-2010)

Cotton

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Cotton…Little going to the OECD

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

OECD Regional (SADC+EAC) ROW

Per

cen

tag

e Cotton Export destination blocs

…..Asia taking the most of it

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Indonesia China India Pakistan Thailand Vietnam

Leading Cotton Export destination States


•  “The most serious NTBs relates to the border administrative procedures such as Border Operating Hours and delays at border posts.” (TCCIA)

•  Other NTBs/NTMs are: 1.  Existence of several weight bridge stations to

neighbouring countries 2.  Several police road blocks particularly for food

movements and trading across markets 3.  Corruption at various administrative sites,

weight bridges and police road blocks 4.  SPS measures put on horticulture commodities

such as carbon footprint issues

However, there exist Trade Barriers:

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The policy framework

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This section of the module aims to: 1.  Identify key policies in place guiding agricultural

development; 2.  Map out the domestic agricultural policy context

in which foreign investors and donor countries operate.

3.  Provide a better understanding of the effects of domestic policy on agricultural development and food security;

v  Understanding of the domestic policy context will help to attribute changes in Tanzanian food security and agriculture caused by OECD policy externalities

The Policy framework

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v  Tanzania Development Vision 2025 v Goal:the transformation of the predominantly agriculture dominated with low productivity to a modernized and high productivity one

Ø  The Agriculture Sector Development Strategy (ASDS) -2001 & Revised 2013 Ø Goal: Contribute to the national economic growth, household income, food and nutrition security

Ø  The Agriculture Sector Development Programme (ASDP) -2006-2013 • Kilimo Kwanza (Agriculture first): Window for OECD linkages • SAGCOT- Pilot model for PPP, Commercial Agric • Big Results Now (BRN)- is a delivery and monitoring tool. For ASDP II focusing on sugar, Rice, and maize

Ø  The (CAADP) – TAFSIP Irrigation, productivity & commercialization

The Policy Framework

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TANZANIA MAINLAND ZANZIBAR

LONG TERM

Tanzania Development Vision (TDV) 2025 Vision 2020 MEDIUM TERM National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty (MKUKUTA I) 2005/06-2009/10

MKUKUTA I I 2010/11-2014/15

F i v e Y e a r Development Plan (FYDP)

Zanzibar Strategy of Growth and Reduction of Poverty

SECTOR LEVEL Agricultural Sector Development Strategy (ASDS) 2001; Revised 2013

PRIVATE INVESTMENT FRAMEWORK

Kilimo Kwanza (Agriculture First) 2009.

Ag r i cu l t u re Trans fo rma t i on Initiative

Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT)

PUBLIC INVESTMENT FRAMEWORK: Agricultural Sector Development Programme (ASDP) 2006- 2012/13; Revised 2014

A g r i c u l t u r e S t r a t e g i c P l a n 2002-2011

•  District Agriculture Sector Investment Project (DASIP) •  Agricultural Marketing Systems Development Programme

(AMSDP) •  Rural Financial Services Programme (RFSP) •  Marine and Coastal Environment Management Project

(MACEMP)

COMPREHENSIVE AFRICA AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME (CAADP) Tanzania Agriculture and Food Security Investment Plan (TAFSIP) 2011/12–2020/21

Wrap Up!

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•  (Direct and indirect) Competition in reg’l and int’l

commodity markets between OECD exports and

Tanzanian exports

•  Competition with OECD and RoW commodities in

Tanzanian domestic markets

•  Barriers to Tanzanian cash crop and processed food

exports (competition in OECD domestic markets)

•  Foreign direct investments in agriculture and related

sectors in Tanzania

•  Food assistance

Transmission of OECD policy effects to Tanzania

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•  Other linkages: Input market linkages, non-

agricultural market linkages (access to basic

non-food goods and basic services important for

maintenance of livelihoods)

•  Policy linkages? Examples: EPAs, WEF-sponsored

SAGCOT, quality/geographic labeling (organic

cotton), corporate tax policy in OECD countries,

etc.

Transmission of OECD policy factors in Tanzania

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•  Where OECD-borne external factors have the

most economically significant impacts over

extended periods of time? Which OECD-borne

external factors can be omitted?

•  Changing int’l context: increasing imports/

exports from/to emerging and developing

countries

Way Forward: Selecting OECD-Tanzania market linkages

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Product Prod (t)

Cons (kcal/cap/

d)

Imp Regio

n (t)

Imp OEC

D (t)

Imp RoW (t)

Exp Regio

n (t)

Exp OEC

D (t)

Exp RoW (t)

Cassava 5,462,453

149 0 0 3 2,786 0 0

Maize 5,104,248

511 1,803 4,050 1,744 65,855 18 286

Sweet potato

3,018,175

116 0 0 0 0 0 0

Banana 2,524,740

78 0 0 0 275 2 2

Rice 1,800,552

192 1 627 39,284

15,271 1 3,251

Irish potato 1,235,041

38 589 207 96 1010 0 0

Beans 1,199,267

111 1,434 190 285 8,352 823 305

Milk 1,738,683

38 3,945 884 3,494 320 3 9

Product Prod (t)

Cons (kcal/cap/

d)

Imp Regio

n (t)

Imp OEC

D (t)

Imp RoW (t)

Exp Regio

n (t)

Exp OECD

(t)

Exp RoW (t)

Sugar cane 2,900,000

0 0 523 22,570

0 2 0

Cotton seeds 225,938 9 1,227 0 23 1,301 1,102 121,740

Tobacco leaves

126,624 - 1,579 511 225 2,567 90,647

14,379

Cashew nuts 122,274 - - - - - - -

Coffee 33,219 1 16 2 11 98 50,175

3,365

Tea 32,812 0 36 8 33 10,797 8,462 8,525

•  Food and nutrition security measurement issues;

measurement issues for other variables

•  Geographical disaggregation (disaggregation of

impacts); timeframe

•  Aggregation of effects of multiple OECD policies

•  Mixed quantitative-qualitative analysis

•  Need to take into account domestic policies, domestic

business environment (incl. regional markets) as well

as social and natural environment

Way Forward: Empirical challenges

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Thank you www.ecdpm.org

www.slideshare.net/ecdpm

pcd impact assessment on food security in tanzania• oecd, eu and member states have strong...

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