paul m. murphy senior counsel bechtel power corporation vienna, austria november 8, 2007
DESCRIPTION
International Atomic Energy Agency: Milestones for Nuclear Power Infrastructure Development Opening Remarks - Finance. PAUL M. MURPHY Senior Counsel Bechtel Power Corporation Vienna, Austria November 8, 2007. National Position Management Legislative Framework Regulatory Framework - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
1
PAUL M. MURPHYSenior Counsel
Bechtel Power Corporation
Vienna, Austria
November 8, 2007
International Atomic Energy Agency:
Milestones for Nuclear Power Infrastructure Development
Opening Remarks - Finance
2
The Journey: 19 MilestonesThe Journey: 19 Milestones
National Position
Management
Legislative Framework
Regulatory Framework
Stakeholder Involvement
Site & Supporting Facilities
Environmental Protection
Nuclear Fuel Cycle
Industrial Involvement
Procurement
Nuclear Safety
Safeguards
Radiation Protection
Electrical Grid
Human Resources Development
Emergency Planning
Security & Physical Protection
Radioactive Waste
Funding & Financing
Role of Government
Leadership / Commitment
Legal Framework & Rule of Law
Institution Building
3
Key MotivationsKey Motivations
Overall Growth in Demand for Energy Linkage between energy and development
Energy Security / Self-Reliance
Energy Diversity
4
World OverviewWorld Overview
Global electricity demand to increase 50% by 2025 1.6%/yr for
industrial world 3.6%/yr for
developing world
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Bil
lio
ns
(p
eo
ple
)
Year
ICA
PP
04
1850 1900 1950 2050 21002000
6.4
9
0
10
20
30
40
50
ICA
PP
04
Tri
llio
n k
Wh
1850 1900 1950 2050 21002000Year
13
31
5
0
100
200
2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
World Overview
Percent Growth in Nuclear CapacityWorld Overview
Percent Growth in Nuclear CapacityPe
rcen
t Gro
wth
(GW
e) 137%
Developing Nations
Industrial Nations
6
World Overview
Forecasted Nuclear CapacityWorld Overview
Forecasted Nuclear Capacity
0
100
200
300
400
2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GW
e C
apac
ityy
Asia Western Europe North America
Asia
WesternEurope
NorthAmerica
Mature Market Economies (industrial nations)
7
0
50
100
150
2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
World Overview
Forecasted Nuclear CapacityWorld Overview
Forecasted Nuclear CapacityG
We
Cap
acity
y
Other Asia Europe and Eurasia
Other
Asia
EuropeAnd
Eurasia
Emerging Economies (developing nations)
8
World Overview
U.N. Human Development IndexWorld Overview
U.N. Human Development Index
4,000 8,000 12,0000.3
1.0
India
China
Pakistan
Russia
GermanyAustralia
Canada
UKFrance Japan
U.S.
Annual Electricity Use kWh/Capita
0.6
9
Key MotivationsKey Motivations
Overall Growth in Demand for Energy Linkage between energy and development
Energy Security / Self-Reliance
Energy Diversity
Economics Low operational costs relative to other forms of power
10
United States Perspective
Electricity Production CostsUnited States Perspective
Electricity Production Costs
1995–2005 (averages in 2005 cents per kWhr)
Production costs = operations and maintenance costs + fuel costs
Source: Global Energy Decisions
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
05
2005
Oil 8.09
Gas 7.51
Coal 2.21
Nuclear 1.72
11
Key MotivationsKey Motivations
Overall Growth in Demand for Energy Linkage between energy and development
Energy Security / Self-Reliance
Energy Diversity
Economics Low operational costs relative to other forms of power
Emissions / Global Warming
12
16% of world’s electricity Displaces 2.5 billion metric tons of CO2 /year 38 GW brought on line or under construction
since 2000
World Overview
Quick Facts—NuclearWorld Overview
Quick Facts—Nuclear
13
1041
622
17 46 14 39 15180
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
NaturalGas
Hydro Wind Geo-thermal
Tonn
es C
O2-e
quiv
/GW
eh
Coal Nuclear Biomass SolarPV
World Overview
Life Cycle CO2 Emissions AnalysesWorld Overview
Life Cycle CO2 Emissions Analyses
14
Key MotivationsKey Motivations
Overall Growth in Demand for Energy Linkage between energy and development
Energy Security / Self-Reliance
Energy Diversity
Economics Low operational costs relative to other forms of power
Emissions / Global Warming
Note: Drivers are different, depending on national situation
15
Financing IssuesFinancing Issues
High Capital Costs
Long Construction Periods Return on Investment is an Issue
First-of-a-Kind Risk
Sustainability of Government Commitment
Regulatory Uncertainty
Commitment to International Regimes
Supply Chain
Fuel Cycle
Operational Success & Safety Culture
Human Resources
16
What makes nuclear power unique?What makes nuclear power unique?
Scale Cost Development / Construction
Period
Safety
Public Perception / Public Relations
17
Source: Bisconti Research Inc.
Important
for our energy
future
91%
Keep the option to build nuclear plants
84%
Definitely build
nuclear plants in
future
77%
Accept new
reactors at nearest
plant
71%
Favor use of nuclear
energy
82%
United States Perspective Increasing Public SupportUnited States Perspective Increasing Public Support
Summer 2007 survey of residents living near Nuclear power plants.
18
What makes nuclear power unique?What makes nuclear power unique?
Scale Cost Development / Construction
Period Safety
Public Perception / Public Relations
Regulatory Environment
Fuel Cycle
Site Security
International Features Treaty Regimes / Legal
Framework Cross-Border Non-Proliferation
Interdependence of the Nuclear Industry
Impact of Success/Failure
Being Part of the “Nuclear Club”
Commitment to Excellence
19
PROJECT
Parties Involved In a Nuclear Power Project
Risk Allocation?
Labor
Subcontractors Consultants
Commercial Banks
ECAs GovernmentRegulation &
LicensingFinancial
CommitmentsTreaty Commitments
& National Law
Equipment & Material Suppliers
Multilaterals Government
Public
Spent Fuel Managemen
t
Offtakers
Operators
Human Capital
Owners
EPC Contractor
Fuel Supply
NSSS Suppliers
Financing Entities
Decommissioning
20
Concluding ThoughtsConcluding Thoughts
There is no one, right way to achieve success
However, there are certain fundamental principles that will enhance the chances of success