Paul E. Chiodo

Deployment Director, Lean Six Sigma

Certified Lean Six Sigma Master Black Belt

US Army Armament Research, Development & Engineering Center

4 March 2008

PANEL DISCUSSION:

Probabilistic Technology Challenges

&

Applications for Defense and Aerospace

Success

Conference on Quality in

Space and Defense

Industries CQSDI 2008

“PT Challenges & Applications for Defense & Aerospace Success”

• PURPOSE: Bring together Defense and Aerospace Leaders in the field of Nondeterministic Analysis & Probabilistic Technology (Techniques and Methods) to discuss the emerging Requirements, Strategies, Key issues and Challenges, and their Path Forward in the area of Probabilistic Technology.

• OBJECTIVES:– Provide an Introduction to Probabilistic Technology– Identify Needs, Challenges, and New efforts – Discuss Collaborative efforts between NASA, Army/DOD, Industry &

Academia.– Introduce the Path Forward– Discuss what is being done to develop and deploy the technology– Discuss the integrated competency approach– Introduce the Role of ASQ – Encourage involvement and Show how to get involved in this

Culture change process

“PT Challenges & Applications for Defense & Aerospace Success”

• Moderator: Mr. Paul E. Chiodo

• Panel members: Representing: NASA, Army, Industry, ASQ

– Dr. Shiver, Deputy Director, Safety & Mission Assurance at NASA(MSFC)

– Dr. M. Khalessi; CEO/President PredictionProbe, Inc.– Mr. Brian LeHouillier, ASQ Managing Director– Ms. Pam Caruso, Assistant to the Director, NASA -

Marshall Space Flight Center – Mr. Bob Kuper, Competency Dean for Reliability

Engineering, & the Program Manager, Reliability for Future Force Technology Program

Panel Participants

Challenges & Direction Needed To Develop & Deploy a Culture based on Probabilistic Design &

Analysis Principles

• Focus: – Drive Culture Change for Army, NASA and on National Scale – Use Probabilistic Methods to enhance National competitiveness.

• Bottom-line: – Make US Government Agencies and Industry more competitive,

effective, efficient using Probabilistic methods/technology• Basic Problems/Challenges:

– Lacked the National talent pool for broad and timely applications of highly advanced Probabilistic Technology & Computational Probabilistic Methods.

– University Curriculum void: not preparing & promoting applications for S&T, Engineers, Economists, Business/Finance for exceptional value of advanced Probabilistic Methods

– Lack the leadership, program management and practitioner knowledge of these advanced methods and their potential

– Lack the Processes, Tools, and Methods and a Framework for deployment/integration, accountability, measurement and continuous improvement

Integration of Probabilistic Technology with DFLSS

Critical Role for Probabilistic Technology: “Enhancing Decision-making structures across the LC– Integration with DFLSS, Program Mgt & System Engineering– DFLSS build into Product Development Process (PDP)– PT Becomes a Key Component of LSS – LC Process Focus

• PT- Enhanced DFLSS: Innovation and Conceptual Design – “Rapid Innovation”

• PT- Enhanced DFLSS: Robust Design, Reliability-Based Design Optimization, Axiomatic Design

• PT- Enhanced DMAIC/DMALC: Process and Product Improvement

Customer Customer RequirementsRequirements

Customer Customer ExpectationExpectation

Design for Lean Six SigmaDesign for Lean Six Sigma

Customer Customer RequirementsRequirements

Customer Customer ExpectationExpectation

Design for Lean Six SigmaDesign for Lean Six Sigma

Army Plan

PT

for

Challenges & Direction Needed To Develop & Deploy a Culture based on Probabilistic Design &

Analysis Principles

SO WHAT WE NEED MOST:

• A Strong, Multi-tiered Education & Integration Framework

Are we Moving in the Proper Direction?

• In the Army we are using Our Business Transformation Framework (Lean Six Sigma) as our PT Integration Platform

• Primary Emphasis: Education and Integration– Then Measurement and Continuous Improvement

• Working Closely with National Experts– Probabilistic Technology – Tools, Methods, Best Practices– Design for Lean Six Sigma – Better Process and Tools– Axiomatic Design – Additional Tools for Design simplicity, and

improved reliability• Developed the Probabilistic Technology Community (PTC) with ASQ• Developing a “Government Only” variant to enhance Integration• Developing Body’s of Knowledge(BOK), Standards & Guidelines.