patrizio bianchi istituto italo-latino americano roma, january 14- 15, 2010
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The development of Smes: Japan, Argentina, Italia the impact of the current crisis on Latina American countries and prospects of the industrial policies. Patrizio Bianchi Istituto Italo-Latino Americano Roma, January 14- 15, 2010. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The development of Smes: Japan, Argentina, Italiathe impact of the current crisis on Latina American countries and prospects of the industrial policies
Patrizio BianchiIstituto Italo-Latino Americano Roma, January 14- 15, 2010
Since the end of the 1990s, world economy is pushed by emerging and developing economies; since 2007
The global crisis that began in advanced economies has sent severe shocks around the world, posing a test to the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean. The good news is that during this decade the region has made itself more resilient to external shocks, by strengthening policy frameworks and reducing vulnerabilities in its public finances and financial systems. These preparations, the report shows, mean that countries are now more able to respond to the external crisis, many for the first time, with active policies to boost output and employment and protect the most vulnerable groups. This will help contain the damage from the global crisis and speed up the region’s recovery.
IMF Regional Economic Outlook, May 2009
IMF Regional Economic Outlook Sees Latin America Recovering More Quickly from the Global Crisis Relative to Advanced Countries
South American countries reacted well to the previous crisis and became more resilient to the current global crisis
Argentina reacted extremely well to the 2001 default but in 2008 collapsed
PIB trimestral, desestacionalizado, a precios constantes. Valores y tendencia HP
160
210
260
310
360
410
I80 I81 I82 I83 I84 I85 I86 I87 I88 I89 I90 I91 I92 I93 I94 I95 I96 I97 I98 I99 I00 I01 I02 I03 I04 I05 I06 I07 I08
mile
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mill
ones
de
peso
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199
3 Serie desestacionalizada
TendenciaHodrick-Prescott
dittatura
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kirchner
Cambio fisso
delarua
4pres
Reasons of success
• Financial Default and • Devaluation after a long period of fixed
exchange rate• Increase of agricultural commodities prices• Mercosur development• Increase of productivity and innovation in the
agricoltural sector• Political stability and positive industrial policies
Deuda externa bruta
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Dic
-92
Dic
-93
Dic
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Dic
-95
Dic
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Dic
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Dic
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Dic
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Dic
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Dic
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Dic
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Dic
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- en
porc
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el P
IB -
Millones de u$s (eje izquierdo)En porcentaje del PIB (eje derecho)
Financial default reduced external debt and reduced the international opening of the financial domestic market
Tipo de cambio real (IPC San Luis)Indice base 200=100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
ene-
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l-91
ene-
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- índ
ice
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TCR multilateral IPC San LuisTCR bilateral IPC San Luis
Devaluation impacted on export and import prices
Exportaciones e importaciones a precios constantes.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000I-9
3
I-94
I-95
I-96
I-97
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ones
de
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prec
ios
de 1
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ImportacionesExportaciones
Devaluation reduced import and supported domestic production
Consumo y Demanda Interna a precios corrientes.Tasas de variación interanual.
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35I-9
4 II III IVI-9
5 II III IVI-9
6 II III IVI-9
7 II III IVI-9
8 II III IVI-9
9 II III IVI-0
0 II III IVI-0
1 II III IVI-0
2 II III IVI-0
3 II III IVI-0
4 II III IVI-0
5 II III IVI-0
6 II III IVI-0
7 II III IVI-0
8
- var
iaci
ón p
orce
ntua
l res
pect
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igua
l per
íodo
del
año
ant
erio
r -
ConsumoDemanda interna
menemdelarua
4 pres kirchner
Domestic demand improved during Kirchner presidency
Banca mondiale, gli indici dei prezzi delle materie:
Copyright mongabay 2009
changes of soja prices impacted positively from sep 2001, and then from sep 2006, but negatively from may 2008.
Brasil has been very dynamic till 2008, less tham China and India, but more than industrialized countries
Brasil has been more stable than Argentina, and able to pull Argentinian economy
Industrial structure• Comparando los Censos Economicos de 1994 y 2004
aparecen claros indicios de que a lo largo de estos anos de han desmantelado sectores y han desaparecido capacidades, se han acentuado una estructura primarizada y desarticulada, Kosakoff, Hacia un nuevo modelo industrial, 2007, p.69
• Between 1994 and 2004 industrial structure was damaged by the fixed rate of exchange
• Kosakoff says that in those years a substantial part of industrial structure was improving its innovation capacity
The current economic crisis
• The impact of default effects were reduced overtime, the Argentinian economy is more open to global economy
• Devaluation effects was reduced by the positive trends of exports and the weakening of dollar vs. euro
• prices of raw materials since may 2008 decreased
• Mercosur impact is linked to the trends of Brasil
The present political crisis
• The inadequacy of Cristina Fernàndez de Kirchner
• The reaction against the export tax on soja (from 11 mar 2008 to 17 jun 2008)
• Privatization of Air company and pension funds• Fragmentation of the peronist party
Kosakoff, Hacia un nuoevo modelo industrial, 2007
Promote the development of entrepreneurship and creation of new businesses
Stimulate the creation of capital markets do not exist
Recovery accumulated social capitalPromote actions to achieve greater spillsA tax reform and improvement of the
administrationGrant tax incentives for local investment in
research and development