patrick broxton (university of arizona) michael schaffner (national weather service) peter troch...
TRANSCRIPT
Patrick Broxton (University of Arizona)Michael Schaffner (National Weather Service)
Peter Troch (University of Arizona)Dave Goodrich (USDA–ARS–SWRC)
Carl Unkrich (USDA–ARS–SWRC)
Development of a Distributed All-Season Flash-Flood Forecasting System
1
Sixth Southwest Hydrometeorology Symposium
September 28, 2011
• Goals of current efforts
- Process based- Distributed- Continuous- Easily Calibrated
- Develop a modeling system to account for overland flow, catchment wetness, and snow
• Improve upon existing Flood and Flash Flood Forecasting Models
Introduction
• Leverages the KINEROS and SM-HSB models
- Both models are distributed with high spatial and temporal resolutions
- KINEROS is an event model that describes overland flow and channel routing (Kinematic Wave Routing)
- SM-hsB is a continuous model that describes snow (Energy Balance Model), soil moisture (Root Zone Model), and subsurface flow (hillslope-Boussinesq Model)
Shortwave Radiation
Longwave Radiation
Snow
Runoff
Channel Routing
Precipitation
Evapotranspiration
Canopy Interception
Infiltration
Baseflow
Model Description
- Baseflow, runoff (infiltration excess and saturation excess) from SM-hsB are routed using KINEROS
- Distributed as standalone, freely distributable, executables (created using Matlab Compiler Runtime) to perform the following:
• Programming in Matlab (HSB) and Fortran (KINEROS)
Visualize Results
Real-Time Modeling
Process Spatial Data
1) Assimilate Past Hydrometeorologic Data
2) Calibrate Model
1) Assimilate Real-Time Data
2) Run Real-Time Model
Past Simulations for Calibration/ Evaluation
As a webpageAs timeseries’ of model states
Model Description• KINEROS/SM-hsB is more than just a model, but an integrated system that
ingests data, runs the KINEROS and hsB models, and visualizes results
Processing Spatial Data
Delaware River Walton
Delaware River Delhi
Town Brook
East Brook
Platte Kill
-75.25 -75.125 -75.00 -74.875 -74.625-74.75 -74.50
-42.125
-42.25
-42.50
-42.375
Longitude (deg)
Latit
ude
(deg
)
Legend
Delineated StreamWatershed BoundaryDelineated HillslopeModel Grid Cell
USGS Stream Gauge
• Model has been set up to run in the W. Br. Delaware Basin, located in the Catskill Mountains of southeastern New York
Spatial Data from USGS: - DEM - Canopy Coverage Map - Vegetation Type Map - Impervious Surface Map
Spatial Data from NRCS: - SSRUGO soils map
GIS Preprocessing - Slope Map - Aspect Map - Locations of WSR-88D Radar Bins - Watershed Discretization (AGWA)
• Spatial data is either downloaded from the internet (e.g. DEM), generated using GIS (e.g. aspect map), or generated within KINEROS/SM-hsB (e.g. weighting scheme to go back and fourth between grid cells and hillslopes)
• Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment Tool used to discretize watersheds
Past Simulations for Calibration/ Evaluation• Forcing data is from the National Land Data Assimilation
System (NLDAS) and the Multisensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE).
- NLDAS provides Temperature, Pressure, Incoming Radiation (Shortwave + Longwave), Precipitation Estimates, humidity at 1/8 degree. Derived from NARR reanalysis, Bias corrected radiation, gauge-only precipitation
- MPE provides precipitation estimates using gauge + radar data on 4 km grid
• USGS Streamflow data to validate KINEROS/SM-hsB discharge estimates
• Snow water equivalent (SWE) estimates from the Snow Data Assimilation System (optional) to compare to snow model.- SNODAS data combines model estimates with ground, airborne, and satellite measurements of snow
Past Simulations for Calibration/ Evaluation
• Calibration occurs in various steps
- Automated baseflow analysis
- Subsequent calibration of snow, radiation, evapotranspiration, infiltration, and runoff parameters involves changing parameters a few at a time and iterating (optionally fully automatic, manual, or a combination of both).
Down-Slope
0 10 20 30 40 5010-2
10-1
100
101
102
103
104
Effective Time
Deep Aquifer
Base
flow
(mm
/day
) HSB Aquifer
Aquifer Height/Unit Storage Catchment Width
3000 km
5.0 mm
- Automated calibration of HSB model (to find characteristic response, which is applied to each pixel in a watershed individually)
Calibration Period Evaluation Period Summer Winter Summer WinterDelaware River (Walton) 0.87 0.73 0.58 0.59Delaware River (Delhi) 0.83 0.65 0.64 0.50Platte Kill 0.68 0.60 0.49 0.49East Brook 0.73 0.74 0.61 0. 56Town Brook 0.68 0.51 0.65 0.42
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
0
30
60
90
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
50
100
Day of Simulation
Day of Simulation
Aqui
fer H
eigh
t (m
m)
Aqui
fer S
tora
ge (m
m)
Aquifer Storage (m
m)
75th Percentile HSB50th Percentile HSB25th Percentile HSB75th Percentile Simple50th Percentile Simple25th Percentile Simple
Aquifer Heights along Width Function
HSB StorageHSB DischargeSimple StorageSimple Discharge
Real Time Modeling
- NDFD provides estimates of forecasted temperatures, humidity, precipitation, cloud cover (updated hourly)
• Forcing data is from the National Digital Forecast Database and the Multisensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE).
- MPE provides near real-time precipitation estimates (updated hourly)
• Data comparison using USGS streamflow and Recent Estimates of SWE (either observed or from SNODAS)
• Model Forecasts 24 hours in advance using NDFD quantities
• Assimilation of 1 km X 1 degree WSR-88D radar data (under development)
• Ability to update model states
Real Time Modeling• Real-Time hydrometeorologic data is automatically downloaded continuously
(NDFD) or when the model is run (MPE, Streamflow, SNODAS)
- Available model visualizations include historical model data (previous slide) current hydrograph with stage and flood information (bottom left), and distributed estimates of soil moisture (bottom right) and SWE (not shown)
-This real-time output is available online at: http://newims.hwr.arizona.edu/DelewareBasinModel/
• Model runs automatically every hour (using a task scheduler) utilizing newly downloaded hydrometeorologic data (can be manually run more frequently during events)
• Model output is transmitted over the internet using a web page