patrick bond ([email protected])1 us reversion to high interest rate regime during 1980s-90s source:...
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Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 1
US reversion to high interest rate regime during 1980s-90s
Source: Gerard Duminil and Dominique Levy
VOLCKER INTEREST RATE SHOCK
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 2
Rest of world profoundly affected:
Real interest rate as experienced in Third World
Source: Gerard Duminil and Dominique Levy
VOLCKER INTEREST RATE SHOCK
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 3
Corresponding slowdownin world GDP growth
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 4
Dubious statistics:Correcting the GDP bias
(global)
Source: Redefining Progress, San Franciscso
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 5
Especially low growth since 1980, andextremely uneven development
Dramatic differences in annual % change of per capita GDP (note: constant 1995$, not PPP values) Source: Alan Freeman
1980-2000
1970-1980
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Ann
ual p
erce
nt g
row
th in
GD
P pe
r cap
ita o
ver t
he g
iven
per
iod
Major industrial countries
Other advanced economies
Developing
Countries in Transition
GDP per capita in 1995 dollars, 1982-2000
1982 2000Rest of the World 1,457 1,116Advanced or Advancing Countries 15,383 26,134
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 6
Trends in capital accumulation:Did the after-tax profit rate recover?
US corporate profit rate appears to recover from 1984;
but interest payments remain at record high levels;
subtract interest expenses -- net revenue is very low during 1980s-90s.
Source: Gerard Dumenil and Dominique Levy
VOLCKER SHOCK
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 7
Corporations spent 1980s-90spaying off historically high debt
Source: Gerard Dumenil and Dominique Levy
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 8
Source of profits changedduring globalisation/finance era
US corporate profits came far less from manufacturing products;
much greater sources of profits came from abroad;
profits also came more from financial assets.
Source: Gerard Dumenil and Dominique Levy
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 9
Credit/stock market bubbles:US financial profits and
vulnerability
Source: Gerard Dumenil and Dominique Levy
VOLCKER SHOCK
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 10
US financiers doubled in asset-value relative to non-financial
corporations
Source: Gerard Dumenil and Dominique Levy
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 11
US rentiers grabbed much more of the national income
Source: Gerry Epstein and Dorothy Power
VOLCKER SHOCK
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 12
Another feature of the credit bubble:
Is US household debt sustainable?
Source: Gerard Dumenil and Dominique Levy
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 13
Are US households now so indebted that they cannot save?
Source: Gerard Dumenil and Dominique Levy
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 14
US stock market bubblescorrected for earnings
US price-earnings ratios (black line) show herd movements red line is based upon 10-year earnings averages (as per Shiller),
which highlight 30-35 year cycles of extreme overvaluation
Source: Michael Alexander
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 15
US stock market cyclecorrected for accumulated resources
By considering share prices in relation to firm ‘resources’ (accumulated earnings), a clearer picture emerges of valuation -- and overvaluation
Source: Michael Alexander
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 16
Implications of the 2000 crash:US pension shortfalls (demographics important too)
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, p.90
Fortune 500 pension assets in relation to pension benefit obligations (PBOs)
Stock market and US bond yields
DOT COM BUBBLE BURST
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 17
With stock market crash,falling household assets…
Source: Papdamitrou, Shaikh, dos Santos and Zessa, Jerome Levy Institute, Bard College
DOT COM BUBBLE BURST
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 18
… but housing prices keptasset values high
Source: Robert Brenner
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 19
… thanks to mortgage refinancings:
Interest rates declined following Asian crisis
Source: NY Federal Reserve Bank
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 20
An indication of a housing bubble:
Asset prices soar above rental rates
Source: Center for Economic Policy Research
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 21
What might housing crash mean for the rest of the economy?
Source: Robert Brenner
DOT COM BUBBLE BURST
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 22
Another speculative market: energy (potentially crucial in future, given fossil fuel exhaustion and carbon
trading)
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, pp.59-60
Market volatility – energy in comparison
# of energy options/futures traded
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 23
Energy market volatility:electricity and oil prices
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, p.63
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 24
US trade and current account deficits
Source: Gerard Dumenil and Dominique Levy
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 25
Danger ahead: while US wins from global investment, it is
vulnerable
Source: Gerard Dumenil and Dominique Levy
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 26
Financial crashes in other economies:
Asia was looted, 1997-98; US ‘won’
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of NY
financial crash of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and S.Korea: massive bank outflow
(‘other flows’), which soon reached the US;
dramatic decline in Asian currency values;
decline in Asian imports from US, and rise in exports to US…
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 27
US trade benefits from East Asian crisis:
currency-induced import boom
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of NY
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 28
US trade benefits from global power structure: Falling commodity prices and
‘unequal exchange’
0
200400
600
8001000
1200
1400
16001800
2000
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
volume of unequalexchange (T-value)
point estimates byAmin, Kohler
Source: Gernot Kohler
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 29
Reflective of commodity export trends:
globalisation’s falling minerals and agricultural prices
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 30
But worsening US current account reflects net trade/investment
deficits
Source: Papdamitrou, Shaikh, dos Santos and Zessa, Jerome Levy Institute, Bard College
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 31
To compensate:Dramatic shifts in US capital
flows
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, Table 1
HUGE DECLINE IN INWARD FDI
SLOWDOWN OF OUTWARD FDI AND PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 32
Financing of US capital inflows
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, p.148
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 33
Foreign purchases of US financial assets:
Net by type, and accumulated foreign owned
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, p.20,36
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 34
Recent global economic volatilitySize of int’l capital markets, 2003 (US$
billions)
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, Table 3
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 35
Recent financial/currency upheavals:
Stock market index changes
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, Table 10
GLOBAL MARKET CRASHREVIVAL OF STOCK MARKETS
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 36
Stock market volatility, 2000-04 (% change by period)
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, Table 10 = STOCK MARKET CRASH OF 1/3
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 37
US mutual funds flowed back to Wall Street
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, Table 2
SWITCH INTO CORPORATE FUNDS
SWITCH OUT OF INT’L FUNDS
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 38
Lower US issuance of newinternational debt securities (US$ billions)
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, Table 2
EURO TAKES LEAD OVER $
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 39
Outstanding international debt securities (US$ billions)
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, Table 2
EURO TAKES LEAD OVER $
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 40
New international syndicated credit facilities, by currency (US$ bns)
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, Table 2
DECLINE FROM US, EUROPE
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 41
Volatility and dangers persist Huge growth of exchange-traded financial derivatives, 1987-
2003
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, Table 6
INTEREST RATE BETS RISE
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 42
Increase in over-the-counterderivatives (US$ billions)
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, Table 4
INTEREST RATE BETS SOAR
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 43
Over-the-counter derivatives:notional amount, by currency
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, Table 5
EURO TAKES LEAD OVER $
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 44
Emerging market turbulence:Falling capital inflows, rising
outflows
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, Table 1
E.ASIA CRISIS
SUSTAINED NET OUTFLOWS
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 45
As portfolio finance inflows decline, hedge funds take lead over mutual
funds
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, p.149
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 46
Emerging market currency turbulence:
US$ v. Latin American and Asian currencies
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, Table 11
3 SUCCESSFUL $ PEGS WITH CURRENCY CONTROLS:
3 SERIOUS CRASHES:
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 47
Emerging market currencies v. US$:
Latin America and Asia, % change
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, Table 11
3 SERIOUS CRASHES:
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 48
Emerging market currencies v. US$:
Europe, Middle East, Africa
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, Table 11
2 MORE SERIOUS CRASHES:
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 49
Emerging market currencies v. US$:Europe, Middle East and Africa, %
change
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, Table 11
2 MORESERIOUSCRASHES:
AND FOUR EXCESSIVECORRECTIONS
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 50
Emerging markets’stock market volatility
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, Table 15
9/11 FALLOUT
ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS
30-day rolling volatility index, measured by Morgan Stanley
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 51
Emerging markets’ stock market volatility(index by sector)
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, Table 10
HIGH
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
HIGH
LOW
NEGATIVE
LOW
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 52
Emerging market bond returns (20 July 2004, basis points)
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, Table 12
Highest returns: Nigera, Bulgaria, Ecuador, Panama, Peru, Russia, Venezuela (4%+)
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 53
Emerging market bond market (local) interest rate spreads,
2000-04
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, Table 13
Stratospheric prices (>10%): Argentina, Ivory Coast, Dominican Republic
High prices (>5%): Ecuador, Venezuela, Uruguay, Brazil, Nigeria
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 54
Emerging market debt rates of return
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, p.22
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 55
China factor:Vast FDI and equity issuance
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, p.129
US$ billions
9/11 FALLOUT
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 56
Danger sign:Net capital flight worsens
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, p.124
US$ billions
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 57
Net capital flightfrom Asia
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, p.124
US$ billions
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 58
Net capital flightfrom Africa
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, p.126
US$ billions
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 59
Net capital flightfrom Middle East
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, p.126
US$ billions
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 60
Exposure of international banks to emerging markets
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, p.33
Extreme foreign gearing:
Venezuela, Singapore,
Czech Republic, Croatia,
Paraguay, Mexico, Hong Kong, Slovac
Republic, Romania,
Poland
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 61
Emerging markets’ $ reservesMost (relatively) wealthy: Malaysia, Czech Republic, Thailand,
China, Korea
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, p.143
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 62
Strength of Asian, US and other major banking systems
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, Table 28
Terribly risky: Indonesia, Pakistan, China, Japan, Thailand, Philippines, Korea
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 63
Strength of Latin American and E.European banking systems
Source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report 2004, Table 28
Terribly risky: Argentina, Uruguay, Bolivia, Venezuela, Ukraine, Turkey
Patrick Bond ([email protected]) 64
Long-term record of sovereign bankruptcy:
Percentage of countries in default, 1820-1999
During debt crises of the 1830s, 1880s and 1930s, response was default; During crises of 1980s-90s, response was ‘restructuring’ (IMF/WB bailouts plus structural adjustment) Key variable: centralised creditor power.Source: World Bank (2000), Global Finance Tables 2000, Appendix G, Washington.