Pathways to Partnerships,Linking Education to Employment

May 19, 2009

By Phil Pepper, Ph.D.Mississippi Institutions of Higher Learning (601) 432-6408ppepper@mississippi.edu

2

Mississippi Population Growth, 1990-2000

Loss0.0% to 0.9%1.0% to 9.9%10% and Above

U.S. Average 13.2%MS Average 10.5%

-7.6%Humphreys

-7.3%Washington

-6.9%Sharkey

-3.6%Quitman

-3.3%Coahoma

-3.0%Bolivar

-2.9%Adams

-2.0%Tallahatchie

-1.6%Montgomery

-1.4%Hinds

-0.6%Jefferson Davis

-0.4%Noxubee

-0.2%Benton

0.0%Holmes

0.2%Marion

0.7%Webster

0.8%Franklin

0.9%Kemper

1.1%Calhoun

1.6%Leflore

2.0%Amite

3.4%Lauderdale3.7%

Warren

3.7%Clarke

3.7%Winston

3.8%Lowndes

3.9%Monroe

4.1%Claiborne

4.1%Clay

4.2%Copiah

4.6%Sunflower

4.7%Jones

5.6%Pike 5.6%

Walthall

6.0%Jasper

6.3%Forrest

6.4%Attala

6.4%Lawrence

6.6%Wilkinson

6.7%Tippah

7.5%Chickasaw

7.6%Choctaw

7.6%Newton

7.9%Grenada

8.4%Tishomingo

8.5%Yalobusha

8.7%Wayne

8.9%Alcorn

9.4%Smith

9.5%Lincoln

9.8%Prentiss

10.4%Yazoo

11.7%Perry

11.8%Oktibbeha

12.6%Jefferson

13.0%Tunica

13.6%Leake

13.8%Itawamba

14.0%Jackson

14.3%Panola

14.7%Harrison

14.8%George

14.8%Union

15.3%Marshall

15.4%Simpson

15.5%Lee

15.7%Neshoba

16.6%Carroll

17.4%Covington

17.8%Scott

18.4%Tate

19.1%Issaquena

20.2%Pontotoc

21.7%Lafayette

25.6%Pearl River

26.7%Stone

28.4%Lamar

30.1%Greene

32.3%Rankin

35.3%Hancock

38.8%Madison

57.9%De Soto

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

3

MississippiNonfarm Employment

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Thousands

1,159.3

May 00

1,107.2

Jun 03

1,119.1

Mar 09

1,159.3

Dec 07

4

A Lost Decade?Annual Average Growth by Decade - Employment

3.74%

3.40%

2.73%

1.80%

3.96%

2.90%

4.10%

2.70%

1.15%

2.00%2.34%

1.80%

-0.05%

0.50%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

40s 50s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00-08

MS US

5

A Lost Decade?Annual Average Growth by Decade- Income

7.2%

5.0%

3.1%

4.0%

5.3%

4.8%4.6%

3.1%

2.1%

3.1% 3.1%

2.6%1.9%

1.7%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

40s 50s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00-08

MS US

6

US Job Losses Since Beginning of the Recession

120

-72

-144-122

-160-137

-161-128

-175

-321

-380

-597

-681-741

-681 -699

-539

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

Thousands

Dec-07

J an-08

Feb-08

Mar-08

Apr-08

May-08

J un-08

J ul-08

Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

J an-09

Feb-09

Mar-09

Apr-09

7

Mississippi Average Fall Enrollment by Grade, 1995-2005

41,695

26,003

28,836

34,278

40,425

37,865

40,071

38,603

38,616

38,864

38,846

39,275

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

1stGrade

2ndGrade

3rdGrade

4thGrade

5thGrade

6thGrade

7thGrade

8thGrade

9thGrade

10thGrade

11thGrade

12thGrade

Fa

ll S

tud

en

t E

nro

llme

nt

Average Number of Births 6 Years Prior to 1st Grade 42,353

Average Number of “Traditional” Graduates 23,722

On average, for the last 10 school years,about 41,700 students entered 9th grade, yetonly 26,000 enrolled in the 12th grade. Evenless graduated with a traditional H.S.diploma. What happens each year to lose those 15,700+ students?

Source: Annual Reports of the State Superintendent of Public Education

8

Workforce Participation by Educational Attainment Mississippians 25-64 Years of Age, 2005

56.9%

72.2%78.8%

84.5%

0.0%10.0%20.0%

30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%

70.0%80.0%90.0%

H.S.Dropout

H.S.Diploma

SomeCollege orAA Degree

Bachelor'sDegree or

Higher

Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey

9

Unemployment Rateby Educational Attainment Mississippians 25-64 Years of Age, 2005

12.6%

7.5%

5.6%

2.9%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

H.S.Dropout

H.S.Diploma

SomeCollege orAA Degree

Bachelor'sDegree or

Higher

Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey

10

Mississippi Medicaid Program Analysis by Educational Attainment

44.09%

29.33%

3.05%4.34%

10.62%10.56%

12.94%

263,976

167,878

92,541

42,711

18,21112,210

3,3560%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Children Dropouts High SchoolDiploma

SomeCollege butno degree

AssociatesDegree

BachelorsDegree

Masters orhigherDegree

Pro

bab

liit

y o

f R

eceiv

ing

Med

icaid

Ben

efi

ts

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Nu

mb

er

of

Med

icaid

Ben

efi

cia

ries

High School Dropouts are approximately 18% of Mississippi's Population, but they have a higher probability ( 29%) of receiving Medicaid benefits.There are an estimated 167,878 high school dropouts on Medicaid in Mississippi.

Source: Current Population Survey, March 2006.

11

Mississippi Male Incarceration Ratesby Educational Attainment

2.39%

0.99%

0.73%

0.17%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

H.S.Dropout

H.S.Diploma

SomeCollege orAA Degree

Bachelor'sDegree or

Higher

Source: Calculated for 2000 Census and US Department of Justice Data

12

Median Annual Earnings by Educational Attainment Mississippians 25-64 Years of Age, 2005

$16,966

$21,631

$26,160

$44,275

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

H.S. Dropout H.S. Diploma Some Collegeor AA Degree

Bachelor'sDegree or

Higher

Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey

13

Investing in Education

Some Graduate orHigh School College or Bachelor's Professional

Costs Dropout Diploma AA Degree Degree DegreeK-12 Education Cost 44,014$ 52,702$ 52,702$ 52,702$ 52,702$ Medicaid & Incarceration 38,712$ 19,766$ 17,595$ 6,497$ 5,775$ School Cost Beyond H.S. 8,612$ 24,120$ 37,520$ Total Cost to State 82,726$ 72,468$ 78,909$ 83,319$ 95,997$

Tax Returns to the State 59,097$ 87,412$ 117,696$ 177,445$ 229,810$

Net Returns to the State (23,629)$ 14,944$ 38,787$ 94,126$ 133,813$

Returns Per $1 Invested 0.71$ 1.21$ 1.49$ 2.13$ 2.39$

Source: Calculations by IHL based on Appropriations data for 2005