pathways of future emissions & climate change for the australian adaptation practitioner
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Pathways of future emissions & climate change For the Australian Adaptation Practitioner . Malte Meinshausen, 26 th June 2012 The University of Melbourne & Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Pathways of future emissions & climate changeFor the Australian Adaptation Practitioner
Malte Meinshausen, 26th June 2012The University of Melbourne & Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Thanks to Urs Beyerle, T. Corti, J. Arblaster, D. Karoly, J. Rogelj, K. Frieler, L. Warzawski.
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R. Stoeckli, The Blue Marble. Adapted by M. Meinshausen
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International Emission Targets for Australia:5% 2020 Pledge seems slow start for reaching 2050.
High 2020 Pledge of -25% below 2000 – roughly in line with -80% by 2050
Own calculations based on PRIMAP and UNFCCC data.
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Australia’s domestic mitigation important.Australia’s coal associated with big emissions overseas.
CO2 Emissions due to the overseas burning of coal
from a single new Australian coal mine
(1.31 GtCO2 over its 30 year lifetime; Wandoan XSTRATA, Queensland)
Own calculations based on PRIMAP and UNFCCC data. For Wandoan case, see more information at: http://www.envlaw.com.au/wandoan.html
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R. Stoeckli, The Blue Marble. Adapted by M. Meinshausen
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Indicative 2020 Target for global emissions: 44 ±2GtCO2eq, if we
want to stay below 2°C.
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The new “SRES” scenarios for climate model
intercomparisons: The Representative Concentration
Pathways (RCPs).
Cf. Meinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011, doi: DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z and Rogelj et al., Nature Climate Change, 2011, doi: DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1258
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See Meinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011, doi: DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z and Rogelj et al., Nature Climate Change, 2011, doi: DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1258
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Global Peaking of Emissions before 2020 essential.
See Meinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011, doi: DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z and Rogelj et al., Nature Climate Change, 2011, doi: DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1258
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See Meinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011, doi: DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z and Rogelj et al., Nature Climate Change, 2011, doi: DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1258
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“Adaptation challenge” due to negative emission necessity: How can large biomass & CCS
implementation take place without endangering food
production, ecosystems etc?
See Meinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011, doi: DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z and Rogelj et al., Nature Climate Change, 2011, doi: DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1258
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International goal: Keeping warming to below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels (with likely chance). In the long-term, this target is slightly more stringent
than 450ppm CO2eq.
International UNFCCC language on 2C target: “[…] reducing global greenhouse gas emissions so as to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2 ºC above preindustrial levels […]”Cancún Agreements (2010), Decision 1/CP.16, para I.4
“Noting with grave concern the significant gap between […] pledges […] and […] pathways consistent with having a likely chance of holding the increase in global average temperature below 2 ºC or 1.5 ºC above pre-industrial levels”Durban Platform (2011), Decision 1/CP.17, preamble
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Upper inlet: Hansen et al. PNAS, submitted, Scientific Case for Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change to Protect Young People and Nature
Context: +2°C warming last time maybe 3 to 5 Million
years ago.
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Morice et al. JGR, 2012, doi:10.1029/2011JD017187
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Multi-model historical experiments with climate
models (AOGCMs and ESMs) in the latest/ongoing
intercomparison project “CMIP5”: Unprecedented
amounts of data.
Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20 th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich
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Following the highest future emission scenario: Crossing
global warming of +2°C by 2040, +5°C by 2100...
Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20 th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich
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... and +12°C by 2200 ?!
Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20 th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich
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Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20 th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich
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Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20 th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich
RCP4.5 heading for +2.5 to +3°C in long-
term.
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Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20 th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich
RCP3-PD/2.6 staying below 2°C with likely
chance.
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Fig. 3 in Frieler, Meinshausen et al. 2012, J. Clim, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00199.1
Regional Change of precipitation & temperature
important for impacts & adaptation -> high correlation
with global-mean temperatures.
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Advertisements:
1) ISI-MIP Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project www.isi-mip.org
2) International Conference on Climate Change Effects24 - 26 April 2013, Potsdam, Germany www.climate-impacts-2013.org
Nature, 16 Feb 2012
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Background Slides
For discussion.
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Trend preserving bias correctionRCP8.5 Daily temperatures for July,
Amazon region
Bias corrected
Original data from HadGEM2
Source: Frieler et al. ISI-MIP, 2012
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(Australia Government Figure with red added by Meinshausen 2011, Wandoan Court Case Material)