path to a world without nuclear weapons
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Path to a World Without Nuclear Weapons. Presentation by H.E. Mr. Libran N. Cabactulan Permanent Representative of the Philippines to the United Nations in New York. Rationale for Abolishing Nuclear Weapons. To quote the report of the ICNND: - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Path to a World Without Nuclear Weapons
Presentation byH.E. Mr. Libran N. Cabactulan
Permanent Representative of the Philippines to the United Nations in New York
To quote the report of the ICNND: “Nuclear weapons are the most inhumane
weapons ever conceived, inherently indiscriminate in those they kill and maim, and with an impact deadly for decades.”
“So long as any state has nuclear weapons, others will want them. So long as any such weapons remain, it defies credibility that they will not one day be used, by accident, miscalculation, or design. And any such use would be catastrophic. It is sheer luck that the world has escaped such catastrophe until now.”
Rationale for Abolishing Nuclear Weapons
Rationale for Abolishing Nuclear Weapons
Effects of the “Little Boy” and “Fat Man” atomic bombs Killed an estimated
246,000 people in the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Those that survived the initial bombing would later on die of burns, radiation sickness, and other injuries.
Atomic bombs over Hiroshima (left) and Nagasaki (right)
Destructive Power of Nuclear Weapons: Atomic Bomb of the Little Man/Fat Boy type had a yield of
15 to 20 KT A modern thermonuclear weapon has a yield not
measured in KT, but in MT and has a destructive force thousands of times more powerful than the atomic bombs used during World War II
Estimated number of Nuclear Weapons in existence: At the height of the Cold War it was believed that there
were over 70,000 nuclear weapons in existence. Today it is estimated that there are at least 23,000
nuclear warheads. The equivalent of 150,000 Hiroshima type bombs.
Rationale for Abolishing Nuclear Weapons
CountryStrategic Other To Be
Dis-mantled
Total by Country
Yield Range
(kt)Total Yield
(Mt)Deployed Reserve Deployed Reserve
U.S. 2200 2000 – 3000
500 500 4200 9400 – 10,400
Sub-kt – 455
647
Russia 2800 47504 2000 – 3000
3400 12,950 – 13,950
Sub-kt – 1000
1,273
China 130 – 186 54 ~ ~ 184 – 240 200 – 3300 294France <300 0 0 0 <300 100 – 300 55UK 160 0 0 0 160 100 16Israel11 60 – 200 ~ 0 0 60 – 200 ~ 1.6 – 12India13 60 – 70 ~ 0 0 60 – 70 15 – 20013 1Pakistan13 >60 ~ 0 0 >60 Sub-kt – 50 1.3North Korea
0 0 0 5 – 614 5 – 6 Sub-kt – 8 0.05
TOTALS(Rounded)
5770 – 5975
6800 – 7800
2500 – 3500
3900 >4200 23,200 – 25,400
2300
Rationale for Abolishing Nuclear Weapons
Nuclear Arsenals 2009 Source: ICCND Report
Incidents which may have started an accidental nuclear exchange: 23 August 1962 B-52 Navigation Error flying close to Soviet
airspace October 1962 explosion of a Soviet Satellite, US ICBM Test
Launch, unannounced Titan Missile Launch, 21 January 1968 B-52 crash near Thule 9 November 1979 Computer Exercise Tape falsely showing
missile launch from USSR June 1980 faulty computer chip falsely showing a Soviet attack January 1995 Russian False Alarm on a Norwegian scientific test
missile
Rationale for Abolishing Nuclear Weapons
Aside from the threat of accidental launch causing a catastrophic nuclear exchange, there is the grave possibility of non-State Actors coming into the possession of these weapons.
It is not beyond the realm of the possible for non-State Actors to acquire a nuclear device or build a “dirty bomb,” to be used on a city center as an act of terror.
Rationale for Abolishing Nuclear Weapons
Partial Test Ban Treaty of 1963 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear
Weapons of 1970 Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty I, II of the 1970s Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty of
1987 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty I, II of the 1990s Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty of 1996 Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty of 2002
Steps taken to the Path
New START in 2011 1,550 deployed warheads, which is about 30% lower than the
upper warhead limit of the Moscow Treaty. (This limit is 74% lower than the limit of the 1991 START Treaty and 30% lower than the deployed strategic warhead limit of the 2002 Moscow Treaty).
A combined limit of 800 deployed and non-deployed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launchers, submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM) launchers, and heavy bombers equipped for nuclear weapons; and
A separate limit of 700 for deployed ICBMs, deployed SLBMs, and deployed heavy bombers equipped for nuclear weapons. (This limit is less than half the corresponding strategic nuclear delivery vehicle limit of the 1991 START Treaty).
Steps taken to the Path
Prague Speech of US President Barack Obama in April 2009 “The existence of nuclear weapons is the most dangerous
legacy of the Cold War.” “America’s commitment to seek the peace and security of a
world without nuclear weapons.” “Together we will strengthen the Nuclear Non-proliferation
Treaty.” The basic bargain is sound: countries with nuclear weapons will
move towards disarmament, countries without nuclear weapons will not acquire them, and all countries can access peaceful nuclear energy.”
Steps taken to the Path
NPT Review Conferences 1995 Review and Extension Conference
Strengthening of the Review Process of the Treaty Principles and objectives for Nuclear Non-
Proliferation and Disarmament Indefinite extension of the NPT 1995 Resolution on the Middle East
2000 Review Conference 13 Practical Steps
Steps taken to the Path
2010 NPT Review Conference Final Document
Review of the operation of the Treaty, as provided for in its Article VIII (3), taking into account the decisions and the resolution adopted by the 1995 Review and Extension Conference and the Final Document of the 2000 Review Conference
Conclusions and recommendations for follow-on actions
Steps taken to the Path
Conclusions and recommendations for follow-on actions 64 Action points Implementation of the 1995 Resolution on the
Middle East Other Regional Issue
64 Action Points 22 actions on Nuclear Disarmament 24 actions on Nuclear Non-Proliferation 18 actions on Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy
Other Regional Issue On the DPRK
Steps taken to the Path
Implementation of the 1995 Resolution on the Middle East The UN Secretary-General and the co-sponsors of the 1995
Middle East Resolution, in consultation with the States of the region, will convene a Conference in 2012, to be attended by all States of the Middle East, on the establishment of a Middle East zone free of nuclear weapons and all other WMDs…
Appointment by the UN Secretary-General and the co-sponsors of the 1995 Middle East Resolution, in consultation with the States of the region, of a Facilitator…
Designation by the UN Secretary-General and the co-sponsors of the 1995 Middle East Resolution, in consultation with the States of the region, of a host Government for the 2012 Conference.
Steps taken to the Path
Implementation of the 64 Action Points in the “Conclusions and recommendations” section of the 2010 NPT Final Document
Implementation of the 1995 Resolution on the Middle East, in particular holding a Conference in 2012 on the creation of a zone free of WMD with all States in the Middle East participating
Follow-up to New START Revitalization of the CD Negotiation of a Treaty on Fissile Materials Entry into Force of the CTBT Negotiation of a Convention on Nuclear Weapons Nuclear Weapon Free Zones
The way forward
Implementation of the 64 Action Points in the “Conclusions and recommendations” section of the 2010 NPT Final Document All action points should be implemented, some
of the more vital actions are as follows: Actions 3, 5, 7and 21 under Nuclear
Disarmament section Actions 25, 27, and 28 under Nuclear Non-
Proliferation Actions 48, 55, and 58
The way forward
Implementation of the 1995 Resolution on the Middle East The facilitator and host government of the 2012 Conference
must be selected soon so that adequate preparations can be made for the Conference.
It is crucial that all states in the region attend and that states take the opportunity to conduct actual negotiations and not use the event as an opportunity to single out or target a particular state.
A failed 2012 Conference could negatively affect the 2015 Review Conference process beginning with the 2012 Preparatory Committee Meeting.
The way forward
Follow-up to the New START The US and Russian Federation are to be
commended for ratifying New START. Their example should be followed by all other
states that possess nuclear weapons. A follow-up agreement to New START to set
even lower levels should be negotiated at the soonest possible time.
The way forward
Revitalization of the CD and a Treaty on Fissile Materials CD’s last accomplishment was negotiating the Comprehensive Test Ban
Treaty in 1996. CD has practically been inactive for the past 15 years. In 2009 a Program of Work was adopted, but never implemented. CD must begin negotiations on a treaty on Fissile Materials. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon convened a High Level Meeting on CD
Revitalization on 24 September 2010 which came up with the following: The CD should adopt the Program of Work of 2009 or any similar subsequent
proposal submitted during the 2010 Session”; Secretary-General will consult with the Advisory Board on Disarmament
Matters to review the issues taken up during the HLM and based on the recommendations of the Advisory Board the Secretary-General will undertake further actions; and
The Secretary-General will submit a report on the HLM to the First Preparatory Committee Meeting for the 2015 NPT Review Conference.
The way forward
CTBT The remaining nine Annex 2 States need to sign and ratify at
the soonest possible time. Other States not included in Annex 2, but are not party to
the CTBT must do the same to promote the universality of the treaty and ensure the prevention of nuclear testing, which is a prerequisite in the development of nuclear weapons.
The International Monitoring System of the CTBT of which the Philippines is host to three stations proved its capability when it detected the tests of the DPRK.
The IMS can also serve as a tsunami warning system.
The way forward
Nuclear Weapons Convention Such a convention is supported by the Secretary-General and
is included in his 5-point action plan. It is mentioned in the “Conclusions and Recommendations”
section of the 2010 NPT Final Document. It is widely supported by a number of NPT States Parties and
civil society. A NWC could be the way to include all States that possess
nuclear weapons into one legally binding treaty. A NWC should it make it illegal not just to use or threaten to
use nuclear weapons, but possession of such weapons as well.
The way forward
Nuclear Weapon Free Zones NWFZs promote the cause of non-proliferation. NWS need to withdraw all reservations to the
various NWFZs if any or sign on to the protocols of such zones.
All pending issues on the SEANWFZ should be resolved at the soonest possible time to encourage NWS accession to the protocol.
The way forward
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