partnership excellence growth vulnerability: concepts and applications to coral reef-dependent...
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partnership Ÿ excellence Ÿ growth
Vulnerability: Concepts and applications to coral reef-dependent regions
(Work in progress)
Allison Perry
partnership Ÿ excellence Ÿ growth
Vulnerability:
• susceptibility to harm
• a human condition or process resulting from physical, social, economic, or environmental factors, which determine the likelihood and scale of damage from the impact of a given hazard
(UNDP 2004)
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Approaches to vulnerability
• Risk and hazards• Coastal populations and flooding
• Human ecology• Hunger, famines
• Sustainability• Land use practices
• Climate change• Impacts on natural resource sectors
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Vulnerability assessment framework
EXPOSURE
Disturbance or stress to system
SENSITIVITY
Degree of response of system to
disturbance or stress
POTENTIAL IMPACTSAll impacts that may occur without
taking adaptation into account
VULNERABILITY
ADAPTIVE CAPACITYAbility of system to evolve or
change to accommodate disturbance or stress
partnership Ÿ excellence Ÿ growth
Vulnerability assessment framework
EXPOSURE
Disturbance or stress to system
VULNERABILITY
SENSITIVITY
Degree of response of system to
disturbance or stress
ADAPTIVE CAPACITYAbility of system to evolve or
change to accommodate disturbance or stress
RESILIENCE
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Economic vulnerability: climate change and fisheries
partnership Ÿ excellence Ÿ growth
POTENTIAL IMPACTSAll impacts that may occur without
taking adaptation into account
VULNERABILITY
ADAPTIVE CAPACITYResources and abilities to cope
with climate-related changes
EXPOSURENature and degree to which countries
are exposed to predicted climate
change
SENSITIVITYDegree to which
economies & people are likely to be
affected by fishery-related changes
Economic vulnerability: climate change and fisheries
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ModerateHighNo data
LowVery low
Allison et al. (2009)
Allison et al. (2009)
Vulnerability
Economic vulnerability: climate change and fisheries
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Taking vulnerability assessment forward
• Fisheries and climate change:• Refinements as input data quality improves • Multiple drivers of change
• Finer-scale assessments – for policy• National• Sub-national
• Vulnerability of specific fishery-dependent systems
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Threatened coral reefs
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Reef loss: threats to people• Reef ecosystem goods and services
• Food, income, employment, coastal protection, tourism, exports
• Poverty and reef-dependent regions• 2/3 of coral reef nations are developing countries• 1/4 of these are Least Developed Countries
• Small island states• High population densities, limited freshwater
supplies, sensitive economies
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Vulnerability and reef-dependence: Coral Triangle
• >120 million people dependent on marine resources for food, livelihoods• Reefs valued at US$ 2.3 billion• Many reefs degraded and under continuing threat• Coral Triangle Initiative (CTI): conservation, sustainable development,
poverty reduction
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Vulnerability and reef-dependence: Coral Triangle
• Vulnerability to reef loss (climate change)• National-scale assessments
• (Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste)
• Finer-scale assessments• (Indonesia, Philippines, Solomon Islands)
Indonesia
Philippines
Solomon Islands
Assessing vulnerability to reef loss
EXPOSURENature and degree to which coral reefs
are exposed to stress
SENSITIVITYDegree to which
people & economies are likely to be
affected by changes on reefs
POTENTIAL IMPACTSAll impacts that may occur without taking
adaptation into account
ADAPTIVE CAPACITYPotential for reef-dependent
communities & nations to cope with changes on reefs
VULNERABILITY
Assessing vulnerability to reef loss
EXPOSURENature and degree to which coral reefs
are exposed to stress
SENSITIVITY
Reef dependence
POTENTIAL IMPACTSAll impacts that may occur without taking
adaptation into account
ADAPTIVE CAPACITYResources and abilities to cope
with reef loss
VULNERABILITY
Assessing social vulnerability to reef loss
EXPOSURENature and degree to which coral reefs
are exposed to stress
SENSITIVITY
Reef dependence
ADAPTIVE CAPACITYResources and abilities to cope
with reef loss
SOCIAL VULNERABILITY
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Reef dependencePeople more reef-dependent where reefs represent greater:
1. Share of economic activity• Contribution to individual/household income• Contribution to community/regional/national economy
2. Source of employment• Number/proportion of people with reef-dependent livelihoods• Ranking of reef-related livelihood activities
3. Source of nutrients• Proportion of dietary protein from reef-associated sources• Quantity of reef-associated food consumed
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Complexities of reef dependence
• Variation in types of reef reliance• Continuous vs. seasonal• Safety net during times of hardship• Critical to survival vs. non-essential
• Other reef services• Coastal protection• Cultural value
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Adaptive capacityGeneric (Human development) indicators
• Economy (poverty, inequality, debts)• Health (life expectancy, child mortality)• Education (literacy, school enrolment)• Governance (e.g. stability, effectiveness, corruption)
Context-specific indicators• Governance (MPAs, LMMAs)• Alternative natural resources (other fisheries,
agriculture, freshwater availability)• Remittances• Infrastructure (e.g. roads)• Isolation (e.g. proximity to urban centres, markets)
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Project status
Data hunting and compilation
• National-scale• Reef-associated coastal populations, fisheries, dietary
consumption• HDIs, MPAs, roads, agricultural land availability, water
resources, remittances
• Finer-scale• Reef dependence:
– Indonesia (~ 25 sites)– Philippines (~ 30 sites)– Solomon Islands (~ 5 sites)
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Methodological challenges: Data limitations• Varying measures of reef-dependence
• Fishers: fishing households, boats, gear• Livelihoods: # households, total activities, activity rankings• Production: catch, revenues
• Trade-offs between spatial coverage and comparability (across sites, across countries)
• Spatial scale:
Local National
Reef-associated income
Reef-associated employment
Reef-associated livelihoods
Reef-derived catch
Dietary dependence
Health
Education
Governance
Remittances
partnership Ÿ excellence Ÿ growth
Methodological challenges: Data limitations• Varying measures of reef-dependence
• Fishers: fishing households, boats, gear• Livelihoods: # households, total activities, activity rankings• Production: catch, revenues
• Trade-offs between spatial coverage and comparability (across sites, across countries)
• Spatial scale• Data availability at specific scales• Linking national and finer-scale assessments
• Reef-relevance• Balancing generic and context-specific indicators
» e.g. Philippines fish consumption data
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Beyond the Coral Triangle…
• Reefs at Risk Revisited – Global assessment of vulnerability to reef degradation and loss
• Begins June 2009
partnership Ÿ excellence Ÿ growth
partnership Ÿ excellence Ÿ growth
Social vulnerability assessmentGoals:
1. Awareness raising: reef dependence and associated vulnerability
2. Help to reduce vulnerability by:• Identifying the specific drivers of vulnerability in reef-dependent
regions
• Highlighting where particular policy, development, and management measures may be most appropriate
3. Establish baseline measures of vulnerability against which to monitor future changes