Panama’s dynamic economy and its positive out-look for future growth are threatened as much by the probability of severe impact of natural events as by international economic forces. The negative impact of natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, and volcanic activity, can slow or even reverse progress made. Disaster response efforts can wreak havoc on a government’s budget and planning. In addition, small businesses, subsistence farmers, households, and in-dividuals experience the reversal at a personal level, as they absorb the costs of recovery. However, much of the physical destruction and economic losses from these events is largely a result of a lack of planning and poor use of standards for buildings and infrastructure. As for any unforeseen crisis, effective planning for the next probable natural event can help reduce these im-pacts and enable a quick recovery.

The Panamanian government is working to reduce the risk of natural hazards and reduce recovery time through capacity building and improved risk man-agement. It has adopted a Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management National Policy (Política Nacional de Gestión Integral de Riesgo de Desastres, PNGIRD) and a Disaster Risk Management National Plan, 2011-2015 (Plan Nacional de Gestión de Riesgo de Desastres, PNGR). Its National Emergency Plan focuses on emer-

gency management and first response. The government has also incorporated risk reduction into development plans and is mainstreaming disaster risk management into a number of sectors and strategies, such as sus-tainable development, the environment, water, cli-mate change, clean production, and in structural and non-structural risk assessment and risk reduction pro-grams for hospitals and health centers.

To that end, using the CAPRA Probabilistic Risk Assessment software platform, the Panamanian government is implementing a Technical Assistance Project (TAP) in the city of David, an important regional center and one of Panama’s most vulnerable cities. The implementing agency is the Ministry of Housing and Land-Use Planning (Ministerio de Vivienda y Ordenamiento Territorial, MiViOT), with the participation of the Geosciences Institute (Instituto de Geociencias, IG), the Ministries of Education and Health, and the Technological University of Panama (based in Chiriquí). The engineering consulting firm Evaluación de Riesgos Naturales—América Latina (ERN-AL) provided training services and advice for the seismic analysis.

The TAP’s objective is to build institutional capac-ity for probabilistic seismic risk assessment through analysis and evaluation of the buildings and other

Panama Prepares the City of David for the Next Earthquake

Issue #9 July 2012

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City of David, Panama.

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City of David: Housing, Health and Education Portfolio.

infrastructure belonging to the Ministries of Health, Educa-tion, and Housing. The TAP will strengthen the government’s capacity in risk reduction and planning, and will improve the country’s ability to withstand and recover from the negative impact of a natural event.

The CAPRA software suite is a modular and open-source tool that integrates specific software for modeling hazards, building exposure databases and physical vulnerability. The software includes hazard mapping, risk assessment, and cost-benefit analysis tools to support pro-active risk management. It evaluates risk in terms of physical damage (buildings and

infrastructure) and estimates economic loss and loss of hu-man life. The CAPRA Initiative was originally developed to assist Central American governments to assess the threats from natural events (earthquakes, floods and volcanoes) and to adopt standards to reduce the risk of a disaster. Currently under implementation as a part of Technical Assistance Proj-ects (TAPs) in Central America and South America, it will soon be implemented in other regions of the world, such as South Asia, where the impact of severe events can lead to disaster.

Earthquakes and the City of David Located about 30 kilometers from the Costa Rican border near the Pacific Ocean, David is one of Panama’s largest ur-ban areas. It serves as a regional commercial hub and finan-cial center. David is one of the most industrialized cities in the country and a popular tourist destination. Over the years, the city has experienced a number of earthquakes. In 1934, a 7.7 magnitude earthquake, the strongest in Panamanian history, caused extensive damage. During the two days that followed, the area experienced six aftershocks with magni-tudes greater than 6.0. David, with 130,000 inhabitants, was the hardest hit. Earthquakes in 1945, 1979, and 2003 also resulted in various levels of damage.

Panama’s risk is the result of its location at the conflu-ence of four tectonic plates (the Cocos, the Caribbean, the Nazca, and the South American), the Panama microplate (or arc) and nearby trenches, and the high vulnerability of the building stock and infrastructure, which too often do not in-corporate appropriate design and construction standards.

CAPRA ActivitiesA successful disaster risk reduction program requires an up-to-date assessment of the potential impact on infrastructure of different seismic (or other) events and intensities. To that end, the TAP seeks to improve knowledge of the hazard and associated vulnerability of exposed elements and expected loss or damage. Therefore in addition to developing seismic risk models, the TAP enhances institutional capacity for vul-nerability reduction measures.

The CAPRA TAP’s four general activities are:

■■ Identification of threats, historical review, and probabilistic analysis,

■■ Inventory and categorization of exposed and vulnerable buildings,

■■ Evaluation of disaster risk by natural events, and

■■ Development of hazard and risk maps and examples of applications of risk management.

The TAP began by collecting data from previous stud-ies on the seismic hazard at the national level and collecting soil dynamic characteristics at David. The studies included the Central America Seismic Risk Reduction Project Phase I (RESIS I) and Phase II (RESIS II). RESIS I, completed in 2000, developed a seismic microzoning assessment for Da-vid. RESIS II, completed in 2008, used probabilistic model-ing to define acceleration conditions for the country.

The participating agencies also contributed valuable data to the analysis. The IG updated the seismic hazard in-formation, collected soil parameters to understand seismic behavior and generated transfer functions to be used in the CAPRA platform. The Ministries of Health, Education, and Housing conducted surveys of health centers and schools and developed a characterization of housing. The project also developed vulnerability functions appropriate for the types

of construction in Panama, particularly hospitals, schools, housing, and infrastructure. Data from other countries were validated for this purpose. The CAPRA’s geographical infor-mation system (GIS) component integrated all this informa-tion, including seismic hazard, exposure and vulnerability to estimate probable physical and economic losses for the se-lected portfolios.

The WorkshopsDuring the first workshop, in August 2011, participants were introduced to the CAPRA software platform, tool, and applica-tions. They focused on the methodology for hazards analysis and the seismic modeling component CRISIS2007 and the GIS component. The discussions included such topics as site effects, hazards mapping, exposure, vulnerability, and inter-pretation of the results.

The second workshop took place in January 2012. All agen-cies involved in TAP presented progress reports. The IG pre-sented the seismic parameters included in the hazard layer; the MiViOT presented the collected information related to ex-posure of housing and infrastructure compiled in a data base. To complete the seismic risk model, soil response and the se-lection of vulnerability functions required additional work.

In April 2012, an international workshop presented pre-liminary results of the process and findings and of the seismic risk assessment for David to a wide audience representing different sector ministries, academia, the private sector, and the community. The workshop, led by the Ministry of Econ-omy and Finance, discussed the Panamanian risk financing strategy. The presentations also showed how a sound risk assessment facilitates decision making in terms of a well in-formed risk reduction policy. It also emphasized the need of multidisciplinary and inter-institutional teams sharing avail-able information to better understand the possible impact of different hazards over the population.

The third and final workshop, completed in early June 2012, allowed the local and advisory teams to discuss in de-tail the impact of different soil characteristics on the overall seismic response of the buildings evaluated. The participants

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Panama has made significant progress in the implementation of its disaster risk reduction strategy. The enactment of a Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management National Policy and the adoption of a Disaster Risk Management National Plan are critical milestones in the evolution of the disaster risk reduction agenda in the country. —Felipe Jaramillo, World Bank Director for Central America.

also considered a general approach to a risk reduction strat-egy. The project is expected to deliver an official presentation of its findings to the local authorities in the near future.

ResultsAs the CAPRA TAP completes the final analysis for the report, it has identified many important factors. One is a dimension of the exposure portfolio in terms of replacement cost. The other is an indication of which types of buildings and the in-come levels that would be most affected by an earthquake in David. The building types most affected are located in well defined groupings in the city and tend to coincide with the lower income levels. This indicates areas to address and pos-sible future programs with incentives to reinforce existing homes and bring them up to structural code requirements.

The TAP’s main output, however, is strengthened capac-ity at the national level for risk assessment and disaster risk management. The Ministry of Housing, in coordination with the Ministries of Health and Education, will formulate and implement a seismic risk reduction plan, which will provide guidance for short-, medium-, and long-term investment proj-ects. The plan will also improve knowledge, establish preven-tion and mitigation activities, and identify appropriate finan-cial instruments.

The Ministry of Housing has also expressed interest in implementing the CAPRA platform in other parts of the coun-try. It is advancing on a program to develop a land-use plan in other municipalities, for which they are working on the terms of reference. The diagnostic will include an analysis of housing exposure levels in addition to other sectors, such as Education, Public Works, and Energy. In the end, the result of these exercises is a greater resilience in the face of probable natural events. With these strengthened capacities in risk assessment and disaster risk management, Panama will be better able to defend and build on the recent progress made by its dynamic and expanding economy.

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Disclaimer: The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other informa-tion shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.

We were fortunate to have an expert assistant consultant hired by the Bank, who understood both the threat and exposure parts. Her background as a geographer was key. She was also meticulous and tenacious.—Rodrigo Guardia D., Director of Territorial Studies, Ministry of Housing and Land-Use Planning.

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City of David with Baru Volcano in the background.