Oxfordshire County Council Population forecasts May 2015 Update Summary report

Oxfordshire Insight

For full data and copies of this report, visit: www.oxfordshire.gov.uk/insight

Contents Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 3

Key facts ............................................................................................................................................... 4

Growth: .......................................................................................................................................... 4

Age profile changes ........................................................................................................................ 4

Growth................................................................................................................................................... 5

Age structure changes ......................................................................................................................... 11

Household formation and marital status............................................................................................... 12

Future households in Oxfordshire: older age groups ........................................................................... 14

Life expectancy ................................................................................................................................... 16

Factors leading to these population changes (components of change) ................................................ 17

Annexe 1: FAQs .................................................................................................................................. 18

Annexe 2 – Inputs ............................................................................................................................... 20

Introduction

This report introduces the population forecasts released by Oxfordshire County Council’s

Research and Intelligence Unit in May 2015. These are a minor update of previous forecasts,

in particular reflecting significant changes in national fertility expectations (those published by

ONS).

This release precedes the publication of finalised Local Plans by District local authorities in

Oxfordshire that reflect their response to the 2014 Oxfordshire Strategic Housing Market

Assessment. This release is based on pre-SHMA Plans. It is anticipated that revised Plans will

contain significantly more housing (reflecting the SHMA), which will generally raise future

population forecasts above the figures in this release. However, these forecasts remain the

best indication of likely population change in the coming five year period, and the only

indication of likely change at sub-district level. Please see our website

(www.oxfordshire.gov.uk/insight) to keep up to date with the latest information and to access

the forecasts.

You can find more information about the “inputs” that these forecasts are based upon (the

pieces of information that provide the evidence for them) in the annexe, including a summary

of housing development expectations. As with any forecast, this release will inevitably be

proved “wrong” to some extent: there is no crystal ball enabling us to know the future. Rather,

these forecasts show the changes in the population that will happen if the factors that affect

population size and mix (fertility, mortality, and migration) follow current expectations. We

update our forecasts as-and-when new evidence about what to expect in the future is

available.

Acknowledgements

We are grateful to our colleagues at Oxford City Council, West Oxford District Council,

Cherwell District Council, South Oxfordshire District Council, and Vale of White Horse District

council, for sharing information on planned developments – without this the forecasts would

not be possible.

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Key facts

These forecasts (for Oxfordshire, its districts, and wards) show the change in Oxfordshire’s

population from 2014 to 2026 to expect if current proposals for housing development (pre-

SHMA district local plans) are realised.

Growth: Oxfordshire’s total population is forecast to grow by 86,000 (13%) in the next 11

years, from 668,000 residents in 2014, to 754,000 in 2026. This is higher growth than

projected in ONS’ 2012-based Subnational Population Projections: a difference of 39,000

people by 2026. This is partly due to these forecasts taking into account housing supply

growth trajectories set out by district planning authorities, but it is also due to differing

migration inputs.

Vale of White Horse district to grow by 18.3% 2014 to 2026; Cherwell 13.9%; South 13.7%;

West 12.3%; Oxford 7.3%. This compares to historic growth 2001 to 2011 of 8% across

Oxfordshire (12% in Oxford; 10% West Oxfordshire; 8% Cherwell; 5% South Oxfordshire;

4% Vale of White Horse).

Population growth is forecast 2014 to 2026 because:

o the number of births is forecast to exceed the number of deaths by 36,000;

o 52,000 more people are forecast to move into Oxfordshire than to move out.

Age profile changes: Oxfordshire’s population is forecast to continue aging. The proportion of

the population that is above the current working age limit (65) is forecast to increase from

17.2% in 2014 to 20% by 2026, whilst the proportion that is of working age (18 to 65) is

forecast to fall.

Largest growth up to 2026 is in the school age and 65+ age groups: the forecasts are a

15% increase in 5-16 age group and 45% increase in the 65+ group. Within the 65+ group,

older age groups are forecast to increase more than younger ones.

Only 8% growth in working age population is forecast. As other age-ranges will increase

more rapidly, the proportion of the population that is aged 20-64 will actually fall, from

59.1% in 2014 to 56.6% in 2026.

Numbers of births are forecast to remain above 8,000 a year despite fertility rates

stabilising at 2010 levels, due to continued growth in numbers of adults of reproductive age

living in Oxfordshire.

Migration: migration patterns 2008-2012 increased the working age population of Oxfordshire:

if these migration patterns (internally within the UK, or internationally) alter significantly in

future years then the size of the working age population, and the county’s overall age

structure, would change from that forecast here.

Life expectancy: life expectancy is expected to continue increasing (it results from the input

that mortality rates are expected to continue to fall across all age/gender groups). Healthy and

disability-free life expectancies are also expected to continue to increase.

Changes in living arrangements: whilst the numbers of older people will rise, the proportion

living alone in old age is forecast to fall slightly.

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Growth

Oxfordshire’s total population is forecast to grow by 13% in the next 11 years, from an

estimated 668,000 residents in the middle of 2014, to around 754,000 in 2026: an increase of

around 86,000. This increase is substantially greater than the population increase projected by

ONS in the Subnational Population Projections (these project a figure of around 715,000 by

2026, some 39,000 below these forecasts).

In part, these forecasts are higher than ONS projections because they take into account

proposed housing development whereas projections do not. Our forecasts explore the effects

of increases in the rate of housing supply (migration of people into areas of new housing),

whereas projections assume that migration rates observed in recent years continue. As

housing development was generally slower than average over the last five or six years (both

locally and nationally), the projections naturally indicate less population growth.

Whilst a population increase by 2026 is forecast in all districts, there are differences between

them in terms of the pattern of growth due to different “starting” population compositions,

different migration patterns, variations in birth and death rates in different areas, and

differences in timing and extent of planned new housing delivery (see annexe on housing

inputs).

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Cherwell is forecast to grow by 14% between 2014 and 2026 – below ONS-projections in 2014

and 2015, but above ONS projections for later years.

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Oxford City’s population is forecast to grow 7% between 2014 and 2026: this compares to 5%

growth 1991-2001, and 12% 2001-2011.

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Forecasts for South Oxfordshire are for growth more closely following ONS projections for the

first few years, with 15% growth forecast between 2014 and 2026.

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Vale of White Horse is forecast to experience 18% growth by 2026, an increase of 23,000

people.

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West Oxfordshire is forecast to grow by 12% between 2014 and 2026, an increase of 13,000

people.

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Age structure changes

Like other areas in England, the age structure of Oxfordshire has changed in recent years, and

it will continue to change significantly over the next two decades. As well as reporting a higher

total population figure for Oxfordshire than expected, the 2011 Census showed that the age

distribution of Oxfordshire’s population was also slightly different than expected.

Children and Young People (0 to 19)

Total Fertility Rates (the average number of children birthed by a woman over a whole lifetime)

rose across England throughout the 2000s, reaching a 40 year peak in 2010. International

migration into Oxfordshire was shown by the 2011 Census to have been higher than

previously expected, which increase the number of women of childbearing age. These two

factors have led to a higher number of births than were expected.

Fertility rates are expected to stay broadly the same over the forecast period. Combined with a

continued rise in the number of women of childbearing age, the forecast for the 0-19 age group

is for a 14% increase, from a total of 158,000 in 2014 to 180,000 in 2026.

Working age population (25-64)

Growth of the working age population will trail the growth of the children, young people, and

‘retirement-plus’ groups: a forecast 8% increase from 395,000 to 430,000 between 2014 and

2026.

Fertility rates were lower in the 1970s, 80s, and 90s compared to the post-war baby boom

(1945 to 1965). Fertility rates rose in the 2000s and look set to remain at the 2010 high-point

for some years. These historic changes mean that, for the period forecast here, the working

age cohort will be smaller than the current one “in front of” it (their parent’s generation), and

also smaller than the cohort “behind” it (the generation currently being born).

Offsetting this, these forecasts feature the input that recent international in-migration of

working-age people into Oxfordshire will continue at recently-observed rates. Additionally,

people moving from other parts of the UK into newly built housing within Oxfordshire tend to be

working age. If international migration were lower than in recent years, the forecasts of working

age populations in Oxfordshire up to 2026 would be lower.

Retirement-plus age population (65+)

The forecast for the 65+ age groups shows the largest change over the forecast period: a 28%

increase, from 115,000 in 2014 to 148,000 in 2026. Forecast increases are most dramatic in

the oldest groups: 45% growth in the 75+ group (from 53,000 in 2014 to 78,000 by 2026) and

47% growth for the 85+ group (up from 16,000 in 2014 to 24,000 in 2026). This is due to a

combination of falling mortality rates and the fact that the large baby-boom cohort will enter

this age range.

Page | 12

Figure 8: summary of forecast age group percentage changes

Figure 7: summary of forecast age group totals

Page | 13

Household formation and marital status

As well as forecasting age and gender1 of the future population, the forecasts include inputs

about marital status of individuals (i.e. likelihood that people will marry, or remain single, or

divorce), and the likelihood of someone of a given age/gender/marital status forming a

household (vs. house sharing, living with parents, living with siblings, etc.). In this way, the

forecasts relate population changes to the amount of housing expected to be available

(information in District Local Plans). Forecast totals by age and gender are further divided into

three categories2:

In a couple (i.e. living with a spouse);

Previously in a couple (i.e. previously lived with a partner but now do not); and

Single (never lived with a partner).

These totals are calculated by applying inputs about marital status for each age/gender group

in each year to an initial projection of population. Aside from being required for housing-

constrained forecasting of the total population, forecasts of numbers by marital status are

important for:

Investigating changes in the likelihood of people living without a spouse in old age,

which have implications for care and health services, as well as social impacts

Understanding the housing needs of the population

Better understanding the lifestyles, and therefore needs, of Oxfordshire’s population

Tables showing the forecast proportion of people in each age/gender group by

couple/previously in a couple/single category are shown below, but the key points of

note are

People aged 18 to 24 are about as likely to live with a spouse in 2026 as they are in

2011: there is no significant change

People 25 to 64 regardless of gender, and men 65-74: these groups will be slightly

more likely to live alone in 2026 vs. 2011, and less likely to have previously done so

Women aged 75+, and men aged 85+: they will be more likely to live with a spouse –

significantly more so for women

These results arise from the combination of two factors. Firstly, the post-war baby-boomers

were less likely to live with a spouse compared to the generation before. However, for those

currently under-24 the prevalence of living alone is not expected to be higher than for their

parents. Secondly, life expectancy is increasing for both men and women, but men’s is

increasing fastest. This means that the difference in age at which spouses in male-female

couples die is narrowing, resulting in more men surviving a female spouse.

1This section uses the terms “men” and “women”. In reality the population will include a number of

persons currently identified, previously identified, or who will at some point identify, as intersex or

transgendered. Depending on definitions used, 1-2 people per 2000 are identifiable at birth as

intersex, with additional numbers identifiable as intersex later in life. The forecasts are limited to

presenting the population as having a binary gender mix due to the limitations of source data and the

lack of reliable figures for the number of transgender and intersex people in the county (such data

was not collected by the 2011 Census, for example). Where numbers of “men” and “women” appear

in these forecasts, these in fact include transgender and intersex persons.

2Household formation categories are determined by ONS’ Marital Status categories, derived from the

Census. These record the legal partnership status of the adult household population. Couples who

are living together but are not married, are classified as “single”.

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Future households in Oxfordshire: older age groups

All Oxfordshire

Cherwell

Oxford City

Count 65+

single All 65+

% 65+

single

Count 85+

single All 85+

% 85+

single

Count 65+

single All 65+

% 65+

single

Count 85+

single All 85+

% 85+

single

2014 13968 52125 27% 2514 5304 47% 29582 61764 48% 7271 8910 82%

2018 15449 55983 28% 2926 6405 46% 31931 67899 47% 7766 9895 78%

2022 16975 59730 28% 3339 7530 44% 34627 73928 47% 8394 11148 75%

2026 18754 64142 29% 3630 8290 44% 37977 81027 47% 9066 12487 73%

Men Women

Count 65+

singleAll 65+

% 65+

single

Count 85+

single All 85+

% 85+

single

Count 65+

single All 65+

% 65+

single

Count 85+

singleAll 85+

% 85+

single

2014 2825 11263 25% 504 1033 49% 6003 12962 46% 1399 1715 82%

2018 3250 12519 26% 639 1349 47% 6581 14505 45% 1520 1932 79%

2022 3681 13708 27% 756 1633 46% 7161 15848 45% 1646 2172 76%

2026 4154 14969 28% 827 1798 46% 7918 17571 45% 1768 2414 73%

Men Women

Count 65+

single All 65+

% 65+

single

Count 85+

single All 85+

% 85+

single

Count 65+

singleAll 65+

% 65+

single

Count 85+

single All 85+

% 85+

single

2014 3012 7485 40% 397 793 50% 5411 9661 56% 1226 1487 82%

2018 3175 7701 41% 426 882 48% 5866 10702 55% 1205 1515 80%

2022 3276 7723 42% 434 922 47% 6420 11786 54% 1211 1582 77%

2026 3402 7840 43% 427 916 47% 7105 12949 55% 1277 1726 74%

Men Women

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South Oxfordshire

Vale of White Horse

West Oxfordshire

Count 65+

singleAll 65+

% 65+

single

Count 85+

single All 85+ % 85+ single

Count 65+

single All 65+

% 65+

single

Count 85+

single All 85+

% 85+

single

2014 3133 12377 25% 627 1295 48% 6867 14537 47% 1696 2090 81%

2018 3495 13220 26% 763 1640 47% 7288 15644 47% 1812 2325 78%

2022 3878 14124 27% 915 2037 45% 7860 16946 46% 2014 2698 75%

2026 4331 15234 28% 1016 2296 44% 8541 18395 46% 2210 3069 72%

Men Women

Count 65+

single All 65+ % 65+ single

Count 85+

single All 85+

% 85+

single

Count 65+

single All 65+

% 65+

single

Count 85+

single All 85+

% 85+

single

2014 2679 11317 24% 536 1182 45% 5774 12897 45% 1510 1885 80%

2018 3001 12339 24% 616 1419 43% 6205 14192 44% 1670 2181 77%

2022 3338 13292 25% 699 1667 42% 6689 15410 43% 1822 2496 73%

2026 3741 14408 26% 774 1871 41% 7310 16942 43% 1921 2744 70%

Men Women

Count 65+

singleAll 65+

% 65+

single

Count 85+

single All 85+

% 85+

single

Count 65+

singleAll 65+

% 65+

single

Count 85+

singleAll 85+

% 85+

single

2014 2319 9683 24% 450 1001 45% 5528 11706 47% 1440 1732 83%

2018 2527 10205 25% 483 1115 43% 5992 12856 47% 1558 1942 80%

2022 2802 10882 26% 535 1272 42% 6497 13937 47% 1700 2200 77%

2026 3126 11691 27% 587 1409 42% 7104 15171 47% 1890 2533 75%

Men Women

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Life expectancy

Life Expectancy (LE) is a measure calculated from mortality rates across age/gender groups: this

means they provide a useful single-statistic for comparing changes in mortality rates over time and

mortality rate differences between areas.

The way a LE figure is calculated means they indicate the average number of years that people born in

a specified year would live, if they experienced throughout their life the age-and-gender-specific

mortality rates operating in the selected year. For example, a 2010 LE figure for females indicates the

how long a female born in 2010 would live if she experienced the mortality rate observed for infants in

2010 whilst she herself was an infant, then experienced the mortality rates observed for children in

2010 when she herself was a child, and so on for the other age ranges as she herself aged.

LEs are it commonly understood to be a prediction of expected average lifespan, but this is incorrect.

Since mortality rates generally change over time and are expected to continue changing, someone

born in 2010 is likely to experience lower age-specific mortality rates than those observed in 2010, and

so is likely to live longer, on average, than the 2010 LE figure.

Based on expected future mortality rates (see annexe), forecasting of Life Expectancy is possible, and

the results are shown in the table below.

Forecast life expectancies in Oxfordshire. Source Oxfordshire County Council population forecasts, May 2015

Update.

Male Life ExpectancyFemale Life

Expectancy

2014 79.9 84.2

2015 80.1 84.3

2016 80.2 84.5

2017 80.3 84.6

2018 80.5 84.7

2019 80.6 84.8

2020 80.7 85.0

2021 80.9 85.1

2022 81.0 85.2

2023 81.1 85.4

2024 81.3 85.5

2025 81.4 85.7

2026 81.5 85.8

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Factors leading to these population changes (components of change)

This section describes the inputs used in the forecasting process: these are the recent observable facts

and expert opinions that we think give the best indication of what the population will be like in future, in

terms of statistics describing its fertility, mortality, and migration. Migration figures shown here refer to

net migration, with positive figures indicating overall increase in population due to migration

(international and internal combined).

* indicates ONS-published data, collected for calendar years (January-December).

** indicates forecasts, for mid-year to mid-year (July-June).

Historic* Forecast** Historic* Forecast** Historic** Forecast**January-June

July-December

January-June

July-December

January-June

July-December

January-June

July-December

January-June

July-December

January-June

July-December

January-June

July-December

January-June

July-December

January-June

July-December

January-June

July-December

January-June

July-December

January-June

July-December

January-June

July-December

January-June

July-December

January-June

July-December

January-June

July-December

January-June

July-December

January-June

July-December

January-June

July-December

January-June

July-December

January-June

July-December

January-June

July-December

January-June

July-December

January-June

July-December

Births Deaths Migration

2003 72972132

2004 6985 50244660

2005 7575 5111590

2006 7992 51141079

2007 8148 4893293

2008 8307 51041253

2009 8134 49262296

2010 8439 50942590

2011 8502 5058

2012 8217 52911384

2013 7867 53557888 5462 2154

20148283 5521 4995

20158546 5603 9482

20168583 5709 7740

20178744 5811 6302

20188863 5911 6375

20198976 6019 4944

20206117 3715

20219073 6210 2896

20229077 6301 1682

20239046

2945

6378 18852024

9015 6456 14222025

8970 6542 11322026

9044

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Annexe 1: FAQs

Q: “What are ONS mid-year estimates?”

A: Whilst ONS projections make predictions about future population size, ONS mid-year-estimates

make predictions about the population in the past. If a starting resident population for a given year is

known, then the population one year later can be calculated from data on births, deaths, and migration:

Population year one year on = starting population + births – deaths +/- migrants

Year-on-year estimates of the population are calculated in this way, “rolling forward” the Census

estimate based on birth, death and migration data.

However, these estimates are only as good as the data they are based upon. While there is good

(statutory) recording of births and deaths, and reliable recording of internal migration (migrations within

England), international (cross-border) migration data is generally considered less accurate. The 2011

Census revealed that 2001-2011 net immigration had been higher than indicated by the survey

methods that were then in-place (amounting to a difference of several thousand for some areas, such

as Oxford City). Although the methods used by Office for National Statistics to calculate international

migration have been changed, it could be that a future Census results in a revision of historic Mid-Year-

Estimates, as happened for estimates covering years 2001 to 2011 following the 2011 Census.

This round of forecasts is based on 2012 mid-year estimates since mid-year estimates of ward

populations have only been produced up to 2012 at the time of writing.

Q: “How accurate are the forecasts?”

A: This is impossible to know until after the forecast period. The accuracy of many of the inputs used in

the forecast is equally impossible to quantify: it is best to think of the forecasts as the best estimate

of the future, based on the evidence we have. For example, the forecasts reflect the advice of an

ONS expert panel, which predicted that Total Fertility Rates (the average number of children born

per woman during a whole lifetime) will decline to 80% of 2011 rates by 2027. However, there is no

way to quantify the accuracy of this expert opinion until several years-worth of actual birth records

are available.

We do however have measures of the certainty of the 2011 Census estimates that provide the

starting population for the forecast period. The Census provides us with population estimates rather

than absolute counts, because some people never appear on Census forms despite the best-efforts

of the Census teams, and so other sources of data are used to calculate a correction to the Census

count, giving a census estimate. Remaining uncertainty around the correction factors leads to the

calculation of a range of possible values for a population’s size: dependant on how wide this range

of values is, a level of confidence that the real population size is somewhere within that range of

estimates can be assigned. For example, the 2011 Census population estimate for Oxford City is

usually expressed as a single figure (151,906), but this is actually only the middle-value within a

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range of estimates, from 148,900 to 154,900. This is the range within which ONS is 95% confident

the actual population total lies. Even after a Census therefore, we can only be confident of the

population’s size to within a few thousand people per 100,000. Confidence in the exact figures will

naturally be lower the further ahead from a Census that we forecast into the future. If you’d like to

learn more about Census estimates, we recommend reading “Trout, Catfish, and Roach” by ONS.

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Annexe 2 – Inputs This section describes the inputs used in the model – these are the recent observable facts and expert

opinions that we think give the best indication of the future. They are described in terms of changes in

births, deaths, and migration, as these are the factors together describe change the population size

and composition from one year to the next.

Fertility:

1. National Total Fertility Rates (TFRs) historic trend and forecasts to 2035 showing national TFR of

1.91 live births per woman in 2013 and 1.90 in 2025 (ONS Sub-national Population Projections) –

underlying basis for changes in total future fertility.

2. Local recent historic TFR at district level vs. national TFR – assumed to be a constant relationship

over time.

3. Broad age group Age-Specific-Fertility-Rates (ASFR) at district level, 2008-2011.

4. Descriptions of relative changes in age-fertility for women (taken from ONS Sub-national Population

projections), used to inform change in District-level age-fertility curves in future years.

1, 2, 3, and 4 were then used to construct district-level age-specific fertility rates for recent historic and

future years.

5. Additional input for ward forecasts: recent-historic relationship between expected (on basis of the

district-level age-fertility relationship) and actual births, based on comparing district-level ASFRs

with actual numbers of births. It is assumed that the district/ward difference remains constant

across future years.

Mortality:

1. National projected changes in mortality rates by broad age group 2012 to 2036 (ONS sub-national

Population Projections) used as basis for changes in future mortality by age group.

2. Recent mortality totals by broad age group 2010-2013 used with mid-year population estimates to

derive mortality rates by age group for starting year 2012.

1 and 2 used together to construct age-specific mortality rates for future years, based on last 3 years

average mortality as a starting mortality rates.

Migration:

Migration can be internal (between an area and others within the same country), or external (between

an area and areas outside that country). Migration events do not trigger recording processes in the

same way as births and deaths. Internal migration is fairly well recorded (but with some lag) because it

can be captured at events such as GP registration, or through pension and benefits data. International

migration is harder to measure, since a long-term international migrant is defined (by the UN) as a

person who moves from their country of usual residence for a period of at least 12 months. Surveys of

passengers are used, but these can only capture a relatively small sample compared to the totals being

Page | 21

measured. As mentioned previously, international migration was found by the 2011 Census to have

been under-recorded between 2001 and 2011, although the methodology used by Office for National

Statistics has been modified since and previous migration data has been amended to reflect this.

Internal migration rates (rates by age and gender) for the previous five years are taken as a constant

input for 2012-2026. For international migration flows, age/gender net international migration flows are

assumed to have a constant relationship with ONS national projections. In this way internal flows are

modelled as varying according the total number of people of an age/gender/total population present to

in/out migrate, whereas international in/out flows are independent of the age/gender/total population

currently living in an area.

At ward levels, and for Oxford City, special populations such as university students, military

populations, and boarding school populations, are modelled as constant age/gender population

movements, replacing internal migration flows generated by rates.

Housing:

Growth in housing stock is a key driver of population growth. Our forecasts take the input that all new

housing completed will be, or has been, occupied in the year of completion. People moving into new

housing are modelled by the age/gender profile of historic internal migration, while the overall

population that will fit the housing stock in each year is constrained by modelling the total population

according to the Household Person and Household Representative rates that apply in each year (taken

from ONS Household projections). This methodology does not involve matching population type to

specific housing type built (the evidence required to do this does not exist).

Household Persons and Household Representative Rates:

The relationship between housing stock, population capacity of that stock, and forecast population size,

is described by Household Persons and Household Representatives. Before the economic crash, there

was a fairly consistent trend towards smaller households (increasing Representative Rates): the

average age of living with a partner for the first time was rising, as were the numbers never living with a

partner at any point in their life. This trend was partly changing before the 2008-9 economic down-turn

for some groups and, when combined with the constraint upon household formation brought about by

the 2008-9 downturn, resulted in Representative Rates observed in the 2011 Census being

considerably lower overall than previously projected.

As part of the ONS 2012 Sub National Population Projections, future projections from 2012 to 2036

were published: however, expert opinion suggests this projection a poor indicator of likely future

behaviour, since the effects of the economic downturn on household formation are expected to be

temporary given that economic recovery is underway. Therefore, the input is for Household

Representative Rates to transition to a mix of 20% of an extended 2011 series projection, and 80% of

the 2008 series projection, by 2031 (a partial return to the 2008 projections).

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Cherwell housing growth inputs

Site Additional new

dwellings 2011-2026

61-66 Calthorpe Street 0

Oxford Lodge, 51 Oxford Road 0

108 Bretch Hill 0

Spencer House, Britannia Road 0

Hanwell Fields 0

Land north of Castle Street & east of Southam Road 0

South of Warwick Road & west of North Bar 0

Hanwell Fields Farm 0

The Autoshop', 38 Middleton Road 0

Former Bridge Motors Site, Causeway 0

Orchard Fields Primary School 0

Former Cattle Market 0

Land adjoining and to the rear of 286 to 304 Broughton Road 0

Old Stanbridge Hall, Banbury School, Ruskin Road 70

Former allotment, Miller Road 10

62 64 and land to the rear of 58, 60 Oxford Road 9

Dashwood School 19

56-60 Calthorpe St 14

Bankside 1090

Neithrop House, 39 Warwick Road 7

Penrose House, 67 Hightown Road 14

Calthorpe House, 60 Calthorpe Street 15

Methodist Church, The Fairway 11

Orchard Lodge, Warwick Road 16

Lincoln House, Lincoln Close 18

Land south of Hightown Road 8

Junction of Warwick Road & Foundry Street, 92-94 Warwick Road 22

Land adjoining and north west of 35 Crouch Hill Road 26

Land at Banbury AAT Academy 44

Land East of Southam Road 510

Land West of Southam Road 90

North of Hanwell Fields 350

West of Bretch Hill 400

42 South Bar Street 13

South of Salt Way, Crouch Farm, Bloxham Road, Banbury 145

Canalside House, Tramway Road 14

Windfall Allowance Banbury (<10 dwellings) 310

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North Bar Place 32

Cemex and Grundons, Merton Street 150

Canalside 650

Crown House, Christchurch Court 33

Crown House, Christchurch Court 10

Banbury Fire and Ambulance Stations, Cope Road 12

Orchard Way, Banbury 0

Bankside Phase 2 100

Town Centre House Southam Road 31

Jubilee Garage (Coach House Mews) 0

Vine Cottages 0

Rose Cottage, London Road 0

Sunlight Services, Buckingham Road 0

Land & Buildings Adjacent & South of 59 Priory Road 0

4-6 London Road 0

West of Chapel St. & Bryan House 5

Former Oxfordshire County Council Highways Depot 42

Kingsmere (South West Bicester) - Phase 1 1649

North-West Bicester Eco-town Exemplar Project 393

Land south of Talisman Road, Bicester 126

Land south of Church Lane (Old Place Yard and St Edburgs) 17

Graven Hill, Bicester 1200

Transco Depot, Launton Road 23

Bicester Community Hospital Kings End 14

Windfall Allowance Bicester (<10 dwellings) 94

NW Bicester Phase 2 870

SW Bicester Phase 2 450

South East Bicester 400

Cattle Market 40

St. Edburg's School 14

Bessemer Close / Launton Road 30

Land off Banbury Road, Ells Lane, Bloxham 0

Beauchamp Squash Club, Barford Road, Bloxham 0

Fritwell C of E School, Fritwell 0

Green Hill House, Oxford Road, Adderbury 0

North of Milton Road, Bloxham 0

Land south of Aynho Road, Adderbury 0

Land adjacent 55 High St, Kidlington 0

Oxford Road, Chesterton 0

Former MOD housing estate (land adjoining Laburnum Close), Ambrosden 0

OS Parcel 1400 East Of Sands Close Adjacent Junction Of Springwell Road And 0

Page | 24

Station Road, Bletchingdon

Bowood House Hotel, 238 Oxford Road, Kidlington 0

The Manor House, Springhill Road, Begbroke 0

West of West Hawthorn, Ambrosden 0

South of Buchanan Road, Arncott 0

South of Greenfields, Arncott 0

Adult Training Centre, Blenheim Road, Kidlington 0

Land north east of Gosford Farm, Bicester Road, Gosford 0

North of Gossway Fields (formerly Crutchmore Crescent), Kirtlington 0

18 High Street, Kidlington 0

Land at and including Sherwood Close, Launton 0

Former Little Bourton Service Station (now Pinson Close), Southam Road, Little Bourton

5

South of Milton Road, Bloxham 61

Thornbury House, The Moors, Kidlington 54

Former RAF Upper Heyford 761

Oak Farm, Milcombe 29

DJ Stanton (Engineering) Ltd Station Road, Hook Norton

37

Land South West of Orchard Close and adjoining Murcott Road, Arncott 48

North of Cassington Road (land adjacent to Exeter Farm), Yarnton 115

Former DLO Caversfield 195

Yew Tree Farm, Station Road, Launton 40

The Green, Chesterton 44

Land north of Station Road, Bletchingdon 58

Cotefield Farm, Bodicote 82

Springfield Farm, Ambrosden 90

Chestnut Close, Launton 11

4 The Rookery, Kidlington 10

Land North of The Bourne and adjoining Bourne Lane, Hook Norton 70

Land South of Milton Road, Bloxham 85

Land adjoining and South of St Christopher Lodge, Barford Road, Bloxham 75

Land at Station Road, Enslow 10

Land North of Gaveston Gardens, Deddington 85

1-20 Lakesmere Close Kidlington 22

Windfall Allowance Other (<10 dwellings) 838

Tyre Depot, South of Cassington Road, Yarnton 16

Builder's Yard, The Moors, Kidlington 13

Land at Arncott Hill Farm, Buchanan Road, Arncott 0

Units 1 5 6 7 And 11 12 13 Somerville Court Adderbury 26

Total, all dwellings 12490

Page | 25

Page | 26

Oxford City housing growth inputs

Site Additional new

dwellings 2011-2026

Avis site (SP1) 21

Banbury Road sites (SP2) 10

Barton Road Cricket Ground (SP4) 35

Blackbird Leys Central Area (SP5) 100

BT Site (SP6) 43

Canalside land (SP7) 20

Churchill Hospital Site and Ambulance Resource Centre (SP8) 60

Court Place Gardens (SP9) 65

Cowley Centre (SP11) 50

Cowley Community Centre (SP12) 20

Cowley Marsh Depot site (SP12) 47

Crescent Hall (SP13) 48

Diamond Place and Ewert House (SP14) 50

East Minchery Farm Allotments (SP15) 35

Elsfield Hall (SP16) 30

Faculty of Music (SP17) 10

Fox and Hounds pub and former petrol station (SP18) 4

Government Buildings (SP19) 25

Harcourt House (SP20) 30

Jesus College Sports Ground (SP22) 20

John Radcliffe Hospital Site (SP23) 35

Kassam Stadium Sites (SP24) 100

Land north of Littlemore Mental Health Centre (SP25) 180

Lincoln College Sports Ground (SP27) 100

Littlemore Park (SP29) 250

Longlands (SP30) 24

Marston Court (SP32) 12

Marywood House (SP33) 18

Nielsen (SP34) 150

Northfield Hostel (SP35) 35

Northway Centre (SP37) 20

Oxford University Press Sports Ground (SP45) 130

Paul Kent Hall (SP47) 35

Railway Lane (SP49) 55

South Parks Depot (SP54) 6

Temple Cowley Pools (SP56) 26

Townsend House (SP57) 24

Union Street Car Park (SP59) 20

Warneford Hospital (SP61) 45

Warren Crescent (SP62) 18

West Wellington Square (SP63) 10

Windale House (SP64) 42

Wolvercote Paper Mill (Plot A) (SP65a) 200

Cooper Callas site 10

County Hall 65

Island site 38

Page | 27

Magistrates Court 10

Nursery, Osney Lane 11

Osney Warehouse 14

Oxford and Cherwell Valley College 40

Becket Street Car Park 70

Oxpens Road site 240

Fire Station, Rewley Road 40

Telephone Exchange 27

St. Aldate’s/ Queen Street 20

Police Station, St Aldate’s 30

Westgate Shopping Centre and Abbey Place Car Park 80

Worcester Street Car Park 18

Northern Gateway 200

Barton Safeguarded Land 100

Barton Safeguarded Land 175

Barton Safeguarded Land 200

Barton Safeguarded Land 200

Barton Safeguarded Land 175

Barton Safeguarded Land 150

Between Towns Road 25

Blackbird Leys Northern Opportunity Area 200

Land Adjacent TKMaxx, John Allen Centre 10

Scrap yard, Jackdaw Lane 70

Westlands Drive Hall Northway 10

Workshop at Lanham Way 9

10 Stephen Road 7

312 London Road 7

46 Hythe Bridge Street 7

60 Lake Street 0

Land rear of 274 and 276 Woodstock Road 8

Land To Rear Of 9/11/13/15/17/19 Cherwell Dr & 489-493 Marston Rd 7

Manor Ground (SP31) 24

Oxonian Rewley Press 7

Shotover View 0

376 Banbury Road 5

Hernes House Residential Home 5

Temple Court Business Centre 5

Other completions 2011-2013 457

Page | 28

South Oxfordshire Housing growth inputs

Site Additional new

dwellings 2011-2026

Past Completions 338

OS permissions <10 59

OS permissions >10 0

Windfall rates on sites of less than 10 130

Projected completions - allocated sites 0

Ladygrove East 675

Great Western Park 2266

Great Western Park (Land at Park Road) 120

Vauxhall Barracks 300

Didcot Greenfield Neighbourhood 1700

Gateway site 72

Orchard Centre Phase 2 200

Past Completions 618

outstanding permissions <10 302

OS permissions >10 0

Windfall rates on sites of <10 697

Windfall rates on sites of 10-14 88

Windfall rates on sites of 15-19 0

Projected completions - allocated sites 0

Fairmile 188

Chinnor Cement Works 61

Mongewell Park (Carmel College) 166

Icknield Road, Goring 19

Icknield Place, Goring 40

Townlands Hospital, Henley 45

Market Place Mews, Henley 14

Wallingford Site B 555

Thame Neighbourhood Plan Site D 175

Thame Neighbourhood Plan Site C 187

Thame Neighbourhood Plan Site F 203

Thame Neighbourhood Plan The Elms 45

Other identified sites: 0

Memec (Thame Park Road) 35

CABI, Wallingford 80

New allocations 0

Henley 400

Larger Villages 1154

Total, all dwellings 10932

Page | 29

Vale of White Horse housing growth inputs

Site Additional new

dwellings 2011-2026

Small sites in the district (permissions for sites <10 units) 699

Inputs on windfall development 520

Land adj to police HQ, Colwell Drive 9

Land opp Shepherds Hey & Southbourne, Bessels Way 14

Manor Farm, Fernham 4

St Johns Court, Oxford Ln 10

Amey Plc, Appleford Rd 15

Abbey House, Stirlings Rd 10

Former bus depot site, Grove St & Limborough Rd 30

St Marys School, Newbury St 56

The Old Gaol Leisure Centre 61

Land to the South of Chilton Field 275

Timbmet Ltd, Cumnor Hill 192

Former Tree Nursery & Cricket Club & Jespers Hill, Park Rd 277

Land adj 31 & 34 Simpsons Way 16

33 West, St Helen 10

Champion House, 12 Wootton Rd 24

Radcliffe, 18 Marcham Rd 0

Challow Country Club, Woodhill Ln 14

Nalder Estate & The Old Canal Building, Main St 71

Land South of Alfreds Place 15

Land adj to Folly Park, Park Rd 28

Faringdon Tennis Club, Southampton St 0

Land adj Coxwell House & Winslow House, Coxwell Rd 35

Land at Stockham Farm, Denchworth Rd 200

98-100 West Way, Botley 10

Botley Baptist Church, Chapel Way 0

East of Highworth Rd 36

Land between Station Rd & Townsend Rd 30

Land Opp Shrivenham Hundred Business Park 120

46 Newbury Street 23

Ambulance Station, Ormond Rd 11

Sites "H" & "L", Limborough Rd 0

Land West of Witney Road and South of A420 108

Land South of Faringdon Rd, Southmoor 50

Land adj NE & NW of Tilbury Ln, Botley 150

Land off Barnett Rd 50

Land at Didcot Road, Great Western Park 700

Broadwater, Manor Rd 14

Cowan's Camp Depot, High St 100

Land off Lime Rd, Botley 136

Major Amey's Site 140

35 & 37 Yarnells Hill 0

17 to 20 Millbrook Sq 11

Christ Church, Hobbyhorse Ln 15

Anson Field, Morland Rd, Hyde Copse, Howard Cornish Rd 51

Monks Farm, Phase 1, Land West of Old Station Rd 133

South of Lamb Ave 18

Land east of Chainhill Rd 85

Land off Rectory Farm Cl 13

Land at Grove Air Field, Denchworth Rd 1900

Page | 30

Harwell Oxford Campus, Phase 1 120

South of Park Rd 380

Park Rd 0

Harwell Oxford Campus, Phase 2 280

Monks Farm, Phase 2 plus, Land West of Old Station Rd 405

Valley Park 1625

Crab Hill, North East Wantage 1336

LPP2 Villages 767

Total, all dwellings 11402

Page | 31

West Oxfordshire

Data unavailable at present.