oxford economics economic outlook for london · then to reverse direction in 2015 and 2016, mostly...

RESEARCH PERIODICAL

Report prepared for the City of London Corporation by Oxford EconomicsPublished December 2012

THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOKFOR LONDON

THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR LONDON December 2012

2

Incorporating the most recent data revisions, London’s output is now estimated to have grown by 2.2% in 2011, up from 1.9% reported in the April edition of London Outlook. This means that on the whole London’s economic recovery from the financial crisis was more than three times stronger than that of the UK. Looking at sectors, the rebound was largely driven by professional & technical activities, construction and information & communications.

Bearing in mind this positive revision, with the Eurozone debt crisis still on-going and Spain on the brink of a bailout, our forecast for 2012 is now more pessimistic. As the Eurozone is widely expected to experience a recession, we anticipate London’s GVA to grow by 0.2%. Although weaker, compared to the UK forecast of around 0.03% London actually stands out favourably. The slowdown will be evident across most industries, with construction even contracting slightly as the Olympics end, but being prevented from further falls by the Crossrail and other ongoing projects.

London’s employment is forecast to continue growing strongly and expand by 2.6% in 2012, with business services accounting for almost half of the newly created jobs. It is worth noting that off the back of the robust growth in 2011–12, London’s total employment should be back to its pre-recession level by 2012, which cannot be said for the UK on the whole. The general slowdown of the London economy will come through to the labour market by 2013, with employment forecast to remain flat. This is further discussed in the next section.

Having avoided a double dip in 2011, London house prices are forecast to grow by around 2% in 2012. While we anticipate London’s labour market to struggle with creating new jobs in 2013, this will be reflected in house prices which are forecast to fall slightly in 2013 and 2014 but then pick up again in the longer term.

Overview

Forecast summary

GVA (basic prices, % / year) Employment (% / year) Unemployment rate (%) Population (%/year)

2008 0.8 2.3 2.9 1.2

2009 -3.0 -2.7 2.7 1.5

2010 0.9 0.4 4.2 1.3

2011 2.2 2.3 4.4 1.5

2012 0.2 2.6 4.5 1.4

2013 1.5 0.0 4.6 1.2

2014 3.0 1.0 4.6 1.1

2015 3.4 1.2 4.2 1.1

2015–2020 3.4 1.2 3.8 1.1

Source: ONS, Oxford Economics

Economic growth in London (GVA) Total employment in Greater London

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

7

6

’05 ’07 ’11 ’13 ’15 ’17 ’19

% / year

’09

4400

4600

4800

5000

5200

5400

5600

20202005 2010 2015

(000s)

Source: Oxford Economics Source: Oxford Economics


3

Forecast summary

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

London forecast

GVA (basic prices, % / year) 0.9 2.2 0.2 1.5 3.0

Employment (thousands) 4795.2 4906.0 5032.2 5034.2 5084.2

Employment (% / year) 0.4 2.3 2.6 0.0 1.0

Unemployment rate (%) 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0

Employment by borough (000’s)

City of London 385.6 397.9 400.3 405.9 410.9

Westminster 662.1 676.7 676.5 684.6 694.7

Tower Hamlets 255.9 268.6 272.3 277.3 282.1

Rest of London 3602.3 3689.0 3685.0 3716.4 3756.6

Employment by borough (% / year)

City of London 4.0 3.2 0.6 1.4 1.2

Westminster 1.7 2.2 0.0 1.2 1.5

Tower Hamlets 9.8 5.0 1.4 1.9 1.7

Rest of London 1.8 2.4 -0.1 0.9 1.1

GVA by borough (% / year)

City of London -0.4 -0.2 1.8 3.5 4.0

Westminster 2.2 0.1 1.5 3.2 3.7

Tower Hamlets 6.7 1.7 2.4 3.9 4.3

Rest of London 2.4 0.2 1.2 2.7 3.0


London’s GVA growth by sector (% / year)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Financial & business services 0.9 -0.3 2.4 3.8 4.3

Financial & insurance activities 0.0 -1.3 1.2 3.0 3.5

Real estate activities -1.2 0.7 2.8 4.0 4.4

Professional, scientific & technical activities 3.0 -0.3 3.2 4.7 5.2

Administrative & support service activities 2.2 2.4 4.3 4.3 4.8

Mainly public services 3.4 0.8 -0.5 0.0 0.6

Public administration & defence 1.1 0.8 -1.8 -1.1 -0.1

Education 2.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.8

Human health & social work activities 6.3 1.5 0.2 0.6 1.1

Wholesale & retail trade 3.4 -0.1 -0.3 2.4 2.5

Accommodation & food service activities 3.3 2.6 0.1 2.3 2.5

Information & communication 2.7 2.5 2.2 5.0 5.2

Other service activities 2.7 0.7 2.0 2.7 3.1

Manufacturing 4.5 -1.8 0.3 2.4 2.1

Construction 5.9 -1.7 1.5 3.1 2.6

Total 2.2 0.2 1.5 3.0 3.4



4

After a year of strong recovery in 2011, London’s labour market is expected to hold up well in 2012 and grow by 2.6%, despite the anticipated lacklustre GVA growth. As mentioned previously, this expansion in employment will be largely underpinned by booming recruitment in business services, as well as by sizeable gains in the trade and hospitality industries. In 2013 we expect to see a slowdown across the board, with still relatively strong business services offsetting losses in some of the other industries, including financial services, trade and public administration.

Looking at the breakdown of employees and those self-employed, it is interesting to note that the 0.3% improvement in the 2012 growth rate (compared to 2011) can be mostly attributed to big increases in the number of those self employed. To some degree this signals a revival of the capital’s entrepreneurial spirit and potentially reflects a more optimistic view of the economy, but might also be due to fewer opportunities for work and changes to welfare system forcing self employment. Further out, against the backdrop of national employment bouncing back, London’s employment is also forecast to return to moderate growth of over 1% in 2014, and then stabilise at that rate in the longer term. Public administration employment is expected to decline well into the forecast as public expenditure is cut, with private services having to make up for the lost jobs.

As a result of London’s labour market stalling in 2013, Claimant count unemployment is forecast to jump to 4.4%, and then fall back to 3.2% by 2019. Still lower than the UK average (by about 0.5%), some of these increases could be attributed to the welfare reform bringing people off benefits and into claimant count.

One possible reason for London’s labour market being in a better position than that of the UK and having a lower unemployment rate is the higher proportion of those with NVQ4+ level of education (roughly the equivalent of a bachelor’s degree and above). The recent Annual Population Survey (APS) revealed that in London the share of working population with NVQ4+ is 41.8%, while in the UK average is much lower at 31.2%. This data reflects the idea that those with a higher level of educational attainment are generally less likely to be unemployed.

Finally, London’s average workplace wages in 2011 are estimated to be £698 per week, and our forecast is for wage growth to slow to 0.3% in 2012 and then pick up to average around 2.9% over 2013–15.

London’s labour market

Labour market change (000s)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Employment 84.4 -139.2 7.2 88.0 82.4

Self employment 25.5 6.8 11.3 22.8 43.7

Total employment 109.9 -132.4 18.5 110.8 126.2

Unemployment -0.2 1.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1


Claimant unemployment rate

Employment growth in London

Source: Nomis ,Oxford Economics

Source: Oxford Economics

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

20192003 2007 2011 20151991 1995 1999

Rate (%)

Public adminEducation

ManufacturingHuman health & social work

Other productionOther service activities

Arts, entertainmentAccommodation & food

Wolesale & retailFinancial & insuranceReal estate activitiesTramsport & storage

ConstructionInformation & comms

Admin & support serviceProfessional, scientific

40 60 80 100-20 0 20

Change 2012–2015 (000s)


5

Having avoided a double dip in 2011, unlike the rest of the UK, London house prices are forecast to grow by around 2% in 2012. This respectable performance in times of uncertainty is partly due to London’s employment holding up well, and is also a result of foreign buyers’ continued interest in London’s prime properties. Seeing London property as a safer alternative to equity or bond investment, a recent report by Savills found that overseas buyers accounted for 58% of sales in central locations in the first half of 2012. The report also notes that the last budget’s measures to reduce use of offshore ownership structures and increase stamp duty on selected properties have created a price threshold of around £2 million in London’s markets1. While we anticipate London’s labour market to struggle with creating new jobs in 2013, this will be reflected in house prices which are forecast to fall slightly in 2013 and 2014 but then pick up again in the longer term.

Since the recovery of the property market, central London’s office rents continued to grow at a rate above that of the UK, and are forecast to do so in the future. The expectation is for London rents growth to remain between 3% and 4% over 2012–13, and then accelerate slightly in 2014 as a result of the London economy generally improving. A report by Jones Lang LaSalle estimates that leasing volumes were also up by 3% in 2012Q2 compared to the previous quarter, with rental activity being driven heavily by the City2. Furthermore, it notes that the second quarter of 2012 saw ten transactions in excess of 50,000 sq. ft. take place (eight of which were pre-let), while there were only four transactions of this size bracket during the same period last year (two of which were pre-let).

Looking at central London’s estimated vacancy rates, we anticipate them to keep falling over 2012–14 but then to reverse direction in 2015 and 2016, mostly as a result of new developments coming into the market.

London’s property market

1. Prime London Residential Markets, Savills, July 2012

2. The Central London Market Q2 2012, Jones Lang LaSalle

London house prices


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Change (%)

2005 2009 2013 2017

Standard office rents

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Oxford Economics

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

UK

London

Change (%)

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

London office vacancy rates

0

2

4

6

8

1

3

5

7

9

10

2011 2013 20152005 2007 2009

Rate (%)


6

Compared to the major European cities London’s 2011 performance was mid-table, being outstripped by the manufacturing centres Stockholm and Munich and also by one of London’s closest financial rivals – Frankfurt. At the same time Spanish and Italian cities lagged London significantly, largely explained by the on-going debt crisis and the resulting cuts in public spending. As the Eurozone re-enters recession in 2012, the economies of Brussels, Madrid, Barcelona, Milan and Rome are all expected to contract, while Munich and Stockholm are forecast to hold up well despite international trade slowing. Looking at the medium term, over 2013-15 London is forecast to continue growing faster than most of its rivals, including Paris, and to also overtake Frankfurt.

Productivity in London is estimated to be at around £57,000 per worker, and in terms of relative productivity London is again mid-table. Being of a similar economic structure to Frankfurt, London almost exactly matches its productivity. At the same time Stockholm (due to high-value added manufacturing), Paris (due to higher productivity in business services) and Brussels stand out as being more productive.

Looking at ILO unemployment rate, London is on par with Paris and Rome, while Frankfurt and Munich in particular enjoy a rate almost half that of London. With Barcelona and Madrid understandably occupying the top spots, Brussels’ high unemployment rate of 17% is partly explained by a large number of commuters taking up capital’s jobs.

Overall looking at all indicators, London fares relatively well in the European context, with perhaps only Stockholm and Munich ahead of it in terms of current strength and future potential, and Frankfurt close behind.

Key European centres analysis

GDP growth in large European cities (%)

2005–07 2008–10 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Brussels 2.0 0.7 1.0 -0.4 0.2 1.6 1.9

Munich 3.4 -0.6 4.4 1.6 2.9 3.7 3.4

Frankfurt 2.4 0.4 3.9 0.9 0.6 1.6 1.7

Madrid 4.0 -0.9 0.1 -1.3 -1.8 0.9 1.7

Barcelona 3.4 -1.4 0.6 -1.6 -1.3 0.7 1.2

Paris 3.2 -0.5 1.6 0.7 0.7 1.6 1.5

Milan 1.6 -2.1 0.4 -2.4 0.0 0.9 1.0

Rome 1.6 -0.7 0.4 -0.9 0.1 0.6 0.8

Stockholm 5.0 1.7 3.5 4.1 2.2 3.5 4.3

London 5.0 -0.5 2.2 0.2 1.5 3.0 3.4


Productivity in large European cities, 2011

Unemployment in large European cities, 2011



Stockholm

Brussels

Paris

Frankfurt

London

Munich

Milan

Rome

Madrid

Barcelona

40 60 80 1400 20

London = 100

120100

Barcelona

Brussels

Madrid

London

Rome

Paris

Stockholm

Milan

Frankfurt

Munich

10 15 200 5

London = 100


7

Although financial services account for 40% of City’s total employment – the highest share amongst all London boroughs, in 2011 they contributed very little, if anything, to total employment growth. Despite this, largely thanks to strong performances from support services and information & communication, the total employment in the City is reported to have increased by 4%, a rate almost double the Greater London average.

Overall the picture is expected to be fairly similar in 2012, this time with professional services leading

the total employment growth of around 3.2%. As employment growth grinds to a halt across London in 2013, the City of London will also see its rate of expansion fall dramatically to 0.6%, with financial services employment remaining fairly flat.

Being highly influenced by the general and financial strength of the Eurozone, 2014 will see the City’s economy revitalised, with employment forecast to grow by 1.4%.

Focus on City of London

City of London’s employment change (000s)

2002–2007 2007–2012 2012–2017

Financial & business services -2.5 39.6 20.7

Financial & insurance activities -6.3 19.3 2.4

Real estate activities 0.1 2.4 0.8

Professional, scientific & technical activities 7.6 7.0 11.5

Administrative & support service activities -3.9 10.9 5.9

Mainly public services -1.6 -1.8 -1.4

Public administration & defence -1.8 -1.6 -0.8

Education 0.5 0.1 -0.4

Human health & social work activities -0.3 -0.3 -0.3

Wholesale & retail trade -2.6 3.5 -0.1

Accommodation & food service activities 9.9 -9.2 -0.1

Information & communication 3.5 5.4 2.6

Other service activities 4.5 -2.8 0.6

Manufacturing -0.2 -0.1 -0.1

Construction 1.6 3.4 0.9

Total 12.7 38.3 23.1



8

Based on the employment numbers, our estimates of GVA show that in terms of output the City did not contract at all during the financial crisis, and furthermore it experienced a much quicker and greater bounce-back in activity than the rest of London. Despite strong recruitment, GVA is forecast to remain flat in 2012 as the Eurozone experiences a recession.

Output growth is forecast to return in 2013 and then build some momentum over the next few years, comfortably outpacing the rest of London.

Focus on WestminsterOut of the three boroughs covered in this report Westminster’s economy is the most diverse, with only 6% of employment attributed to financial services. Business services and public services account for the majority of the borough’s employment and together make up almost 50%. As a result of the budget cuts public administration employment in Westminster fell by 8% in 2011, but despite this fact total employment actually went up by 1.7%, being held up by robust hospitality services and information & communications.

With business services returning to growth in 2012 after falling quite sharply in 2011, total employment is forecast to expand by 2.2%. Similarly to Greater London, 2013 will see Westminster’s employment level relatively unchanged, with public services contracting and other industries just doing enough to balance the job losses. From 2014 onwards total employment growth is forecast to rebound and settle at a rate of around 1.3%, again underpinned by strong business services and information & communications.

City of London: economic growth

City of London: total employment

City of London: employment by sector




-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

8

7

6

2005 2007 2011 2013 2015

% / year

2009

CityLondon

Financial services

Business services

Other

24%

40%

35%

300

360

380

400

420

440

20202005 2010 2015

(000s)

320

340


9

Our GVA estimates show that in terms of output Westminster contracted in both 2009 and 2010. From then onwards Westminster’s GVA is forecast to more or less follow the pattern of Greater London, perhaps slightly outperforming it in the long term.

Westminster’s employment change (000s)

2002–2007 2007–2012 2012–2017

Financial & business services 10.0 4.8 22.7

Financial & insurance activities -1.6 6.4 0.2



Administrative & support service activities -8.0 -3.2 6.5

Mainly public services 3.5 0.9 -8.3

Public administration & defence 0.6 -1.3 -6.7


Human health & social work activities -0.5 0.9 -0.6

Wholesale & retail trade 8.1 -6.5 4.8

Accommodation & food service activities 8.8 7.5 5.6


Other service activities -3.3 6.9 6.1



Total 28.3 29.2 42.0


Westminster: economic growth Westminster: total employment

Westminster: employment by sector

Source: Oxford Economics Source: Oxford Economics


-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

8

7

6

2005 2007 2011 2013 2015

% / year

2009

WestminsterLondon

Business services

Other

Public services

Wolesale & retail

Information & comms

Financial services

6%

10%

12%

17%

28%

27%

550

600

650

700

750

800

20202005 2010 2015

(000s)


10

New and revised employment data shows that Tower Hamlets has had a remarkable rebound in its level of activity in 2011, with total employment growing by almost 10%. If this slightly surprising data is to be believed, the surge was driven almost exclusively by a bounce back in recruitment in the borough’s financial services, which resulted in the number of finance jobs increasing by 25%, after falling by 9.3% in 2010. While financial services account for 30% of the borough’s employment, the second biggest sector – business services – has had a mixed performance with real estate employment falling but administrative & support services growing robustly.

Tower Hamlets is forecast to have another strong year in 2012, albeit total employment growth will slow somewhat to 5.0%. Although less rapid than the year before, it is still more than double the Greater London average, and the majority of this growth will come from business services. With recruitment expected to stall across London and the UK in 2013, Tower Hamlets should hold up relatively well with its employment expanding by 1.4%, before settling at a rate of around 1.8% in the long run. In absolute terms, between 2012 and 2017 financial and business services are forecast to create 16,000 jobs in the borough.

Focus on Tower Hamlets

Tower Hamlets’ employment change (000s)

2002–2007 2007–2012 2012–2017

Financial & business services 50.1 30.9 16.0

Financial & insurance activities 37.5 5.0 2.1



Administrative & support service activities 2.4 15.8 6.0

Mainly public services 7.6 5.9 -0.5

Public administration & defence 1.2 0.3 -0.7


Human health & social work activities 3.8 3.3 0.3

Wholesale & retail trade -0.9 -0.7 0.8

Accommodation & food service activities -0.3 3.6 0.9


Other service activities 0.5 3.8 1.2



Total 61.0 45.1 23.3



11

Based on the employment data, our estimates for the borough’s GVA show growth of 6.7% in 2011, then a slowdown to 1.7% in 2012 and finally an acceleration to 4% over 2016–20.

Therefore in the long run Tower Hamlets is forecast to outstrip Greater London on the whole, and to also have a marginally better performance than both City of London and Westminster.

Tower Hamlets: economic growth

Tower Hamlets: total employment

Tower Hamlets: employment by sector




-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

14

12

10

2005 2007 2011 2013 2015

% / year

2009

Tower HamletsLondon

Financial services

Business services

Other

Public services

Information & comms

Wolesale & retail

5%10%

16%

16%

30%

23%

150

170

190

210

310

330

20202005 2010 2015

(000s)

230

250

270

290


12

City of London forecasts

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020

Employment (000s)

Primary industries 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Manufacturing 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0

Construction 5.2 6.7 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.6 8.2

Wholesale & retail trade 15.2 14.7 14.1 13.7 13.8 13.8 14.0

Transportation & storage 3.3 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6

Accommodation & food services 15.3 17.4 17.7 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.5

Information & communication 25.4 27.0 28.1 28.5 29.0 29.6 31.8

Financial & insurance activities 155.6 155.8 158.6 158.9 160.2 160.7 162.4

Real estate activities 6.0 5.0 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.6

Professional, scientific & technical activities

90.6 92.5 99.2 100.9 103.2 105.6 115.4

Administrative & support services 32.3 39.4 41.5 42.4 43.6 44.8 50.1

Public administration & defence 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.1

Health & education 7.2 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.3

Other services 9.2 10.7 10.4 10.3 10.4 10.6 11.3

Total employment 370.7 385.6 397.9 400.3 405.9 410.9 431.4

Output

GVA (£2009, bn) 44570 44393 44296 45079 46668 48512 58163

Employment (%) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Av. Growth

Rate 2016-20

Primary industries -41.8 42.5 4.8 -6.0 -3.1 -3.2 -3.2

Manufacturing -8.1 -2.2 -0.2 -1.5 -1.2 -1.3 -1.5

Construction 7.4 29.0 5.0 2.5 2.6 2.7 1.4

Wholesale & retail trade -8.3 -3.3 -4.3 -2.5 0.2 0.6 0.3

Transportation & storage -6.3 11.5 -3.3 -0.4 0.7 1.0 -0.2

Accommodation & food services 1.4 13.9 1.3 -2.2 0.2 0.7 0.1



Real estate activities 3.0 -16.1 7.2 2.3 3.0 3.1 2.4


3.9 2.1 7.2 1.7 2.3 2.3 1.8


Public administration & defence -4.8 -1.1 -3.7 -4.5 -4.6 -4.2 -2.4

Health & education 3.6 2.1 -2.9 -2.0 -2.3 -2.2 -1.2

Other services 3.3 17.0 -3.4 -0.6 1.1 1.4 1.4


Output (%)

GVA 5.0 -0.4 -0.2 1.8 3.5 4.0 3.7

Forecasts


13

Westminster forecasts

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020

Employment (000s)


Manufacturing 5.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.6

Construction 17.3 19.0 19.6 20.0 20.4 21.0 23.7








119.2 108.2 113.6 114.7 116.9 119.7 135.7




Other services 58.7 59.5 59.7 59.8 61.0 62.4 69.8


Output

GVA (£2009, bn) 42258 43172 43226 43863 45252 46919 56675


Rate 2016-20


Manufacturing 1.5 -21.2 -0.3 -1.5 -1.2 -1.2 -1.5

Construction -6.9 9.7 2.8 2.0 2.4 3.0 2.4

Wholesale & retail trade -12.9 9.9 -0.4 -1.2 1.6 1.9 1.6

Transportation & storage -3.5 -11.7 0.7 0.9 2.1 2.4 1.1

Accommodation & food services -3.2 15.1 5.5 -0.9 1.7 2.0 1.5

Information & communication -1.6 14.2 4.5 1.7 2.4 2.4 1.8


Real estate activities -4.4 -9.2 4.4 0.8 1.9 2.4 2.4


1.1 -9.2 5.0 1.0 1.9 2.4 2.5

Administrative & support services 3.1 -0.5 2.8 0.8 1.8 2.3 2.4

Public administration & defence 7.5 -8.0 -2.1 -2.8 -2.9 -2.6 -0.9

Health & education -8.3 4.0 -1.5 -0.6 -0.9 -0.8 0.1

Other services 7.3 1.4 0.4 0.2 2.0 2.3 2.3

Total employment -1.3 1.7 2.2 0.0 1.2 1.5 1.5

Output (%)

GVA -1.1 2.2 0.1 1.5 3.2 3.7 3.9


14

Tower Hamlets forecasts

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020

Employment (000s)


Manufacturing 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 2.8

Construction 10.4 11.0 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.6 15.0








24.7 25.4 29.2 30.7 32.0 33.4 40.0




Other services 8.9 10.7 11.0 11.0 11.2 11.5 13.0


Output

GVA (£2009, bn) 20696 22088 22458 23005 23910 24928 30421


Rate 2016-20


Manufacturing -12.6 -7.7 -0.4 -2.3 -2.0 -2.1 -2.4

Construction -16.9 6.1 11.6 4.2 3.2 3.1 1.9

Wholesale & retail trade -1.5 3.0 1.1 -1.3 1.5 1.8 1.4

Transportation & storage -2.9 -14.6 2.3 1.0 2.2 2.5 1.2



Financial & insurance activities -9.3 25.3 2.2 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.4

Real estate activities 7.4 -22.1 12.6 4.0 3.8 3.5 3.0


2.6 2.8 15.0 4.9 4.5 4.1 3.7



Health & education 6.4 3.3 -0.6 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.8

Other services 7.3 20.2 2.8 0.3 2.2 2.6 2.5


Output (%)

GVA -1.3 6.7 1.7 2.4 3.9 4.3 4.1


15

Rest of London forecasts

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020

Employment (000s)


Manufacturing 126.5 129.5 130.7 128.7 127.2 125.6 116.3

Construction 242.6 247.6 257.4 261.0 265.0 270.1 288.2








364.5 357.9 378.7 384.9 393.6 403.3 458.4




Other services 267.5 279.1 287.4 286.1 290.2 295.4 323.6


Output

GVA (£2009, bn) 165134 169075 169439 171535 176100 181381 212214


Rate 2016-20

Primary industries -3.6 -4.6 5.6 -4.1 -1.8 -1.9 -2.0

Manufacturing -0.6 2.3 0.9 -1.5 -1.2 -1.3 -1.5

Construction -2.8 2.1 3.9 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.3


Transportation & storage -4.2 2.3 3.4 0.6 1.8 2.1 0.9



Financial & insurance activities -1.3 -0.9 1.1 -0.7 -0.1 -0.6 -0.7



1.0 -1.8 5.8 1.6 2.3 2.5 2.6

Administrative & support services 5.9 -2.7 3.2 1.4 2.1 2.3 2.4



Other services 5.8 4.4 3.0 -0.5 1.4 1.8 1.8

Total employment 0.0 1.8 2.4 -0.1 0.9 1.1 1.2

Output (%)

GVA 0.6 2.4 0.2 1.2 2.7 3.0 3.2


Greater London forecasts

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020

Employment (000s)


Manufacturing 136.5 138.1 139.3 137.2 135.5 133.7 123.7

Construction 275.5 284.3 296.3 300.9 306.1 312.4 335.0








599.1 584.0 620.8 631.2 645.8 661.9 749.6




Other services 344.2 360.0 368.5 367.2 372.9 379.9 417.7


Output

GVA (£2009, bn) 272657 278729 279419 283482 291930 301740 357473


Rate 2016-20


Manufacturing -0.9 1.1 0.9 -1.5 -1.2 -1.3 -1.5

Construction -3.5 3.2 4.2 1.6 1.7 2.1 1.4


Transportation & storage -4.2 1.0 3.1 0.6 1.8 2.1 0.9






1.5 -2.5 6.3 1.7 2.3 2.5 2.5




Other services 6.1 4.6 2.4 -0.3 1.5 1.9 1.9


Output (%)

GVA 0.9 2.2 0.2 1.5 3.0 3.4 3.4

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