oxford brookes history ma economic history lecture 6/11/2007

What is economic history?What is economic history?

Dr Glen O’HaraDr Glen O’Hara

Senior Lecturer in Modern HistorySenior Lecturer in Modern History

Seeing this again…Seeing this again…

This slideshow is available onlineThis slideshow is available online

It is available at the following URL:It is available at the following URL:

www.SlideShare.netwww.SlideShare.net

DefinitionsDefinitions

‘‘Economic history is not… a story – still less a Economic history is not… a story – still less a chronological story, for most events in economic chronological story, for most events in economic history cannot be neatly dated. Instead it is a list history cannot be neatly dated. Instead it is a list of questions; some can be answered, some of questions; some can be answered, some cannot, but it is the search for answers, and for cannot, but it is the search for answers, and for the best way to seek answers, which gives the the best way to seek answers, which gives the subject both its justification and its interest’.subject both its justification and its interest’.

-Roderick Floud and Donald McCloskey, -Roderick Floud and Donald McCloskey, The The Economic History of Britain since 1700 (Economic History of Britain since 1700 (1994)1994)


‘‘Economic history offers about the biggest contrast Economic history offers about the biggest contrast to political history that can be imagined. Its to political history that can be imagined. Its chronology is quite different. It often makes light chronology is quite different. It often makes light of differences of political culture and national of differences of political culture and national tradition… and it gives minimal scope to tradition… and it gives minimal scope to personality and motive, the classic personality and motive, the classic preoccupations of historians; instead preoccupations of historians; instead ‘impersonal’ forces such as inflation or ‘impersonal’ forces such as inflation or investment tend to hold the centre of the stage’.investment tend to hold the centre of the stage’.

-John Tosh, -John Tosh, The Pursuit of HistoryThe Pursuit of History, 2, 2ndnd edn. (1991) edn. (1991)


‘‘The science relating to the production and The science relating to the production and distribution of material wealth; sometimes distribution of material wealth; sometimes used as equivalent to used as equivalent to political economypolitical economy, , but more frequently with reference to but more frequently with reference to practical and specific applications’. practical and specific applications’.

--Oxford English DictionaryOxford English Dictionary


‘‘The study of how economic phenomena The study of how economic phenomena evolved in the past. Analysis in evolved in the past. Analysis in economic history is undertaken using economic history is undertaken using historical methods and statistical historical methods and statistical methods, sometimes to test economic methods, sometimes to test economic theories’.theories’.

-Wikipedia-Wikipedia


‘‘The study of… the human possibilities of The study of… the human possibilities of subsistence during different time periods.subsistence during different time periods.

A study of the development of society when A study of the development of society when markets, production and products change. The markets, production and products change. The problems studied concern growth, structural problems studied concern growth, structural change, the role of formal and informal change, the role of formal and informal institutions in the economy and the division of institutions in the economy and the division of labour between men and women’.labour between men and women’.

-Umeå university -Umeå university

DefinitionsDefinitions‘‘IIt provides the key that unlocks our understanding t provides the key that unlocks our understanding

of of fundamental processes of changefundamental processes of change, and can , and can reveal to us great truths about the human reveal to us great truths about the human condition. It tells us how we arrived in our condition. It tells us how we arrived in our present state. The significance of economic present state. The significance of economic history also lies in its ability to give us an insight history also lies in its ability to give us an insight into the into the differentnessdifferentness of the past: it explains how of the past: it explains how people coped with problems by devising people coped with problems by devising solutions which are foreign to our world, like the solutions which are foreign to our world, like the two-field system or turnpike roads’.two-field system or turnpike roads’.

-Professor Christopher Dyer, University of -Professor Christopher Dyer, University of Leicester (my italics) Leicester (my italics)

Key ConceptsKey Concepts

Choice under constraintsChoice under constraints

A harsh world of choicesA harsh world of choices

Counterintuitive thinkingCounterintuitive thinking

StrangenessStrangeness


Statistical calculationStatistical calculation

QuantificationQuantification

CounterfactualsCounterfactuals

Alternative realitiesAlternative realities


Descriptive, not normativeDescriptive, not normative

Human nature as a given Human nature as a given

The concept of ‘hard wiring’The concept of ‘hard wiring’

Policy implications in economicsPolicy implications in economics

Choice under constraintsChoice under constraints

Starting with desired goalsStarting with desired goals

Moving to resourcesMoving to resources

Resources are scarceResources are scarce

Resources must be used efficientlyResources must be used efficiently

Humans, left to themselves, will normally do thisHumans, left to themselves, will normally do this

Choice under constraintsChoice under constraints ‘‘Bounded rationality’Bounded rationality’

One thing that’s scarce is One thing that’s scarce is informationinformation

It is, in itself, a resourceIt is, in itself, a resource

And we often deal with it badlyAnd we often deal with it badly

So So physical resourcesphysical resources won’t won’t always always be used in the ‘best’ be used in the ‘best’ manner ‘in the long run’ manner ‘in the long run’ (Keynes)(Keynes)

A harsh world of choicesA harsh world of choices

Coal mining is a good Coal mining is a good exampleexample

Mining was dirty, Mining was dirty, dangerous and expensivedangerous and expensive

Most pits closed in 1983-Most pits closed in 1983-19931993

Mining areas devastatedMining areas devastated Now oil and gas are more Now oil and gas are more

expensive, coal would be expensive, coal would be more competitivemore competitive


‘‘Prices and incomes’ policiesPrices and incomes’ policies

G. O’Hara, ‘“Intractable, Obscure and Baffling”: G. O’Hara, ‘“Intractable, Obscure and Baffling”: The Incomes Policy of the Conservative The Incomes Policy of the Conservative Government, 1957-64’, Government, 1957-64’, Contemporary British Contemporary British HistoryHistory 18, 1 (2004), pp. 25-53. 18, 1 (2004), pp. 25-53.

M. Roodhouse, ‘The 1948 Belcher Affair and the M. Roodhouse, ‘The 1948 Belcher Affair and the Lynskey Tribunal’, Lynskey Tribunal’, Twentieth Century British Twentieth Century British HistoryHistory, 13, 4 (2002), pp. 389-411. , 13, 4 (2002), pp. 389-411.


The malignant effects of price suppressionThe malignant effects of price suppression

Price suppression causes grey marketsPrice suppression causes grey markets

It causes bureaucratizationIt causes bureaucratization

It privileges the views of the powerfulIt privileges the views of the powerful

It leads to the inefficient use of resourcesIt leads to the inefficient use of resources

‘‘Strangeness’Strangeness’

Histories we don’t expectHistories we don’t expect

The ‘slips and the folds’ of life (Ankersmit)The ‘slips and the folds’ of life (Ankersmit)

Searching for evidence in unusual placesSearching for evidence in unusual places

‘‘Strangeness’Strangeness’

The height of convictsThe height of convicts

Criminal records to answer economic Criminal records to answer economic history questionshistory questions

Did wages rise?Did wages rise?

What about: did diets get better?What about: did diets get better?

Stephen Nicholas, Stephen Nicholas, Convict Workers: Reinterpreting Australia's PastConvict Workers: Reinterpreting Australia's Past (Cambridge, 1988). (Cambridge, 1988).


The concept of ‘regressions’The concept of ‘regressions’

Matching a ‘dependent variable’ to an Matching a ‘dependent variable’ to an ‘independent variable’‘independent variable’

The latter helps to cause the formerThe latter helps to cause the former

Complex statistical tests to see how: ‘R-squared’ Complex statistical tests to see how: ‘R-squared’ and t-testsand t-tests

Statistical calculationStatistical calculation(yields of fenced and unfenced land)(yields of fenced and unfenced land)


Popperian reasoningPopperian reasoning

Karl Popper (1902-94)Karl Popper (1902-94)

Historian and philosopher Historian and philosopher of scienceof science

Only what can be Only what can be false false can be can be truetrue

VerifiabilityVerifiability

QuantificationQuantification ‘‘Cliometrics’Cliometrics’

The science and the art of countingThe science and the art of counting

E. Cary Brown, ‘Fiscal Policy in the 'Thirties: A E. Cary Brown, ‘Fiscal Policy in the 'Thirties: A Reappraisal’, Reappraisal’, American Economic ReviewAmerican Economic Review 46, 5 46, 5 (1956), pp. 857-879. (1956), pp. 857-879.

A.H. Conrad and J.R. Meyer, ‘The Economics of A.H. Conrad and J.R. Meyer, ‘The Economics of Slavery in the Ante Bellum South’, Slavery in the Ante Bellum South’, Journal of Journal of Political EconomyPolitical Economy, 66, 2 (1958), pp. 95-130., 66, 2 (1958), pp. 95-130.

QuantificationQuantification

‘‘From the elites to the masses’From the elites to the masses’

Sophisticated computer programmes, e.g. SPSS, ExcelSophisticated computer programmes, e.g. SPSS, Excel

Common/ globalised language of numbersCommon/ globalised language of numbers

Comparability of resultsComparability of results

P. Hudson, P. Hudson, History by Numbers: An Introduction to History by Numbers: An Introduction to Quantitative Approaches Quantitative Approaches (London, 2000).(London, 2000).


Changing one variableChanging one variable

This demonstrates the effects of different This demonstrates the effects of different elements in the ‘mix’elements in the ‘mix’

A physics approach to lifeA physics approach to life

Against ‘determinism’Against ‘determinism’


What would have happened to the United What would have happened to the United States if it was not for railroads?States if it was not for railroads?

Robert W. Fogel, Robert W. Fogel, Railroads and American Railroads and American Economic Growth: Essays in Econometric Economic Growth: Essays in Econometric HistoryHistory (Baltimore, 1964). (Baltimore, 1964).

Fogel concludes little effect.Fogel concludes little effect.

Counterfactuals: Ferguson as advocateCounterfactuals: Ferguson as advocate

Alternative realitiesAlternative realities

Parallel universesParallel universes

‘‘Unknown unknowns’Unknown unknowns’

Taking chaos theory into accountTaking chaos theory into account

A recent fashionA recent fashion

New alternative universesNew alternative universes

Descriptive, not normativeDescriptive, not normative

Not Not intendedintended to further the point of view of any to further the point of view of any one school of thought one school of thought

Not interested in good and bad, but in efficiency Not interested in good and bad, but in efficiency as the only given ‘good’as the only given ‘good’

Shades of greyShades of grey

A ‘science of choice’ – more pensions, or more A ‘science of choice’ – more pensions, or more health care in the 1930s, for instancehealth care in the 1930s, for instance

Human nature as a givenHuman nature as a given

Humans as defined by an inborn pattern of Humans as defined by an inborn pattern of neural circuitsneural circuits

Humans as instinctive; MRI scienceHumans as instinctive; MRI science

Behaviour as not learned, but innateBehaviour as not learned, but innate

Influence of cyberneticsInfluence of cybernetics

MRI scan of brain: false colours and correlation: motors are MRI scan of brain: false colours and correlation: motors are red, and yellow is languagered, and yellow is language

The concept of ‘hard wiring’The concept of ‘hard wiring’

Human beings as ‘put together’ in a certain Human beings as ‘put together’ in a certain mannermanner

The influence of psychoevolutionary biologyThe influence of psychoevolutionary biology

Pursuing ‘regard’, perhaps: A. Offer, ‘Between Pursuing ‘regard’, perhaps: A. Offer, ‘Between the Gift and the Market: The Economy of the Gift and the Market: The Economy of Regard’, Regard’, Economic History Review Economic History Review 50, 3 (1997), 50, 3 (1997), pp. 450-76.pp. 450-76.

Policy implications in economicsPolicy implications in economics

If we can change variables, we can test If we can change variables, we can test hypotheseshypotheses

We can give policymakers ‘rules’ or ways We can give policymakers ‘rules’ or ways of thinkingof thinking

We can use data that goes further back We can use data that goes further back than just the 1930s corporate statethan just the 1930s corporate state

Adam SmithAdam Smith(1723-1790)(1723-1790)

Key Smithian insights Key Smithian insights

RationalismRationalism

Benign self-interestBenign self-interest

Conjoined Conjoined sympathy and self-interest sympathy and self-interest

CharityCharity

Key Smithian insightsKey Smithian insights

The invisible handThe invisible hand

SpecialisationSpecialisation

Equilibrium as resources flow to efficient Equilibrium as resources flow to efficient useuse

‘‘Factor replacements’Factor replacements’

Conclusions (I): why economic Conclusions (I): why economic history?history?

A world, not of impressions, but of ‘more’ A world, not of impressions, but of ‘more’ and ‘less’.and ‘less’.

Testabillity; verifiability; falsifiabilityTestabillity; verifiability; falsifiability Recovering raw dataRecovering raw data Comparable resultsComparable results Key Key survival survival concepts that comfortable concepts that comfortable

modernity can forgetmodernity can forget

Conclusions (II): implicationsConclusions (II): implications

Refusing to chose between rationality and Refusing to chose between rationality and charitycharity

Speculation is limited to what Speculation is limited to what can be truecan be true Breaking away from narrative and towards Breaking away from narrative and towards

explanationexplanation Policy recommendations are possiblePolicy recommendations are possible

BibliographyBibliography

E. Cary Brown, ‘Fiscal Policy in the 'Thirties: A Reappraisal’, E. Cary Brown, ‘Fiscal Policy in the 'Thirties: A Reappraisal’, American Economic American Economic ReviewReview 46, 5 (1956), pp. 857-879. 46, 5 (1956), pp. 857-879.

A.H. Conrad and J.R. Meyer, ‘The Economics of Slavery in the Ante Bellum South’, A.H. Conrad and J.R. Meyer, ‘The Economics of Slavery in the Ante Bellum South’, Journal of Political EconomyJournal of Political Economy, 66, 2 (1958), pp. 95-130., 66, 2 (1958), pp. 95-130.

R. Cowley, R. Cowley, What If? Military Historians Imagine What Might Have BeenWhat If? Military Historians Imagine What Might Have Been (London, (London, 2001).2001).

G. Dozois and S. Schmidt (eds.), G. Dozois and S. Schmidt (eds.), Roads Not Taken: Tales of Alternate HistoryRoads Not Taken: Tales of Alternate History (New (New York, 1999).York, 1999).

N. Ferguson (ed.), N. Ferguson (ed.), Virtual History: Alternatives and Counterfactuals Virtual History: Alternatives and Counterfactuals (London, 1997).(London, 1997). R.W. Fogel, R.W. Fogel, Railroads and American Economic Growth: Essays in Econometric Railroads and American Economic Growth: Essays in Econometric

HistoryHistory (Baltimore, 1964). (Baltimore, 1964). P. Hudson, P. Hudson, History by Numbers: An Introduction to Quantitative Approaches History by Numbers: An Introduction to Quantitative Approaches (London, (London,

2000).2000). S. Nicholas, S. Nicholas, Convict Workers: Reinterpreting Australia's PastConvict Workers: Reinterpreting Australia's Past (Cambridge, 1988). (Cambridge, 1988). A. Offer, ‘Between the Gift and the Market: The Economy of Regard’, A. Offer, ‘Between the Gift and the Market: The Economy of Regard’, Economic Economic

History Review History Review 50, 3 (1997), pp. 450-76.50, 3 (1997), pp. 450-76. G. O’Hara, ‘”Intractable, Obscure and Baffling”: The Conservatives and Incomes G. O’Hara, ‘”Intractable, Obscure and Baffling”: The Conservatives and Incomes

Policy, 1957-64’, Policy, 1957-64’, Contemporary British HistoryContemporary British History 18, 1 (2004), pp. 25-53. 18, 1 (2004), pp. 25-53. M. Roodhouse, ‘The 1948 Belcher Affair and the Lynskey Tribunal’, M. Roodhouse, ‘The 1948 Belcher Affair and the Lynskey Tribunal’, Twentieth Twentieth

Century British HistoryCentury British History, 13, 4 (2002), pp. 389-411. , 13, 4 (2002), pp. 389-411.

oxford brookes history ma economic history lecture 6/11/2007

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