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Overview presentation on transboundary cooperation. Lessons learned from water cooperation in transboundary basins. J. B. Collier, Operations Officer, Africa Natural Resources and Water Management Group, World Bank. Furthering water cooperation among nations and stakeholders. Making it happen!. International Annual UN-Water Zaragoza Conference 2012/2013. Preparing for the 2013 International Year. Water Cooperation: Making it Happen! 8-10 January 2013TRANSCRIPT
1
J.B. CollierOperations Officer
Africa Natural Resources and Water Management Group
Annual International UN Water ConferenceZaragoza, Spain
January 8-10, 2013
Lessons Learned from Water Cooperation in Transboundary Basins:
A World Bank Perspective
2
Countries have ambitious development goals
Ambitious goals to achieve growth, poverty alleviation, sustainable development.
Food, energy, water, security and climate resilience plans.
“Laos wants to pull itself out of least-developed country status by 2020”
“By maintaining at least an 11 percent annual average economic growth and by addressing emerging development bottlenecks, meet the MDG target.” (Ethiopia)
3
Cooperation can help meet those goals
Economies of scale
Access to markets
Postpone investments
Jointly face a common threat
Optimize regionally rather than nationally
Balance each other’s needs
4
The Puzzle: If cooperation brings so many benefits, why isn’t there
more of it ?
276 River Basins in the world.
> 60% of have no treaty provisions covering them.
Few River basin agreements.
Mostly bilateral.
Security
Economic Development
Needs
Rights
INTERNAL DRIVERS
EXTERNAL DRIVERS
Global Dialogue
Regional Geopolitics
Climate Risks
COUNTRY CONSIDERATION
SBenefits and Costs (Economic)
Perceived Risks (Political)
(and few Opportunities)
(Political)
What’s holding the countries back? Perceived Risks
5
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100 1000 10000 100000
Lif
e
Exp
ecta
ncy
(ye
ars)
GNI per capita (US$/yr)
There is a need to catch up quickly in a global context …
2009 Data from The World Bank
6
Many Development Challenges…
Gross Cell Productin 2005
(1995 US$, billions)
Source: The World Bank AFR Water Resources in a Changing Climate, 2010 based on data from GECON GDP Dataset, Yale University 2010
Areas that contribute to Africa’s GDPGrowing Cities
Population in 2000
2010
2025
Kinshasa
Cairo
LagosKhartoum
Dar-es-Salaam
Cape Town
Dakar8.7 million
15 million
5.6 million
Data Source: UN Agglomerations Population Data
Growing Population
Growing Cities
Growing Economies
7
Information
New Visualizations building on better Global Datasets
Innovative Hardware(e.g. Tablets)
Interactive Documents
Online Portals 8
Precipitation (rain & snow)
Reservoir Levels
Flow, Sediment, Floods, GW, …
Shared Regional Real-time Hydromet Systems
“Bottom-up” Systems
Data Transmission(e.g. Satellite, Fixed-line/ Cellphone, Radio Telemetry)
Data Management (Visualization, Forecasts, Storage, Archival,
Dissemination & Use)
Internet/
Intranet
“Top-down” Systems
ET, Soil Moisture, Biomass…
9
Examples of Bank Work on International
Waters
10
Ganges Strategic Basin AssessmentComplex System Scenario Analysis
RAJASTHAN
MADHYA PRADESH
CHHATTISGARH
JHARKHAND
WEST BENGAL
BIHAR
UTTAR PRADESH
BANGLADESH
NEPAL
UTTARKHAND
HIM
AC
HA
L
PR
AD
ES
H
IRR101_8
Kota Dam
DAM101_5
Gandhisagar Dam
DAM101_3
Ranapratapsagar
DAM101_4
Chambal right bank
IRR101_6
Chambal River
Chambal left bank
IRR101_5
Dhaolpur municipal area
WS101_3
Rangwan Dam
DAM101_11
Daudhan Dam
DAM101_10
Ken River
Tons River
Karmanasa River
Naugarh Dam
DAM104_1
Musakhand Dam
DAM104_2
Adhuara Municipal area
WS104_1IRR102_2
Ganges River
Son Right Bank
IRR106_2
Son left
IRR106_1
No
rth
Kae
l Riv
er
Mayurakshi RiverMassanjore Dam
DAM111_1Maithan
DAM111_2
Panchet Resevoir
DAM111_3
Damodar River
Kangshabati
DAM111_4
Haldia River
Farakka
Ganges River
Ganges Barrage
(p lanned)
Padma River
Ban
gh
irat
hi /
Ho
og
ly
Lo
wer
Meg
hn
a R
iver
Up
per
Meg
hn
a R
iver
Jam
un
a R
iver
Mo
han
and
a R
iver
(Ban
gla
des
h)
Mo
han
and
a R
iver
(In
dia
)
Mec
hi
Riv
er
Gh
agar
a R
iver
Ban
gan
ga
Riv
er
Rap
ti R
iver
Gan
dh
ak R
iver
Bag
mat
i R
iver
Ko
si R
iver
Kam
ala
Riv
er
Tam
ur
DA
M2
09
_6
Kal
igan
dh
aki i
i
DA
M2
07
_2
Kal
igan
gh
aki I
DA
M2
07
_1
Set
i
DA
M2
07
_4
Mar
syan
di
DA
M2
07
_5
Bu
rhi G
ang
aki
DA
M2
07
_6
Tri
suli
Res
erv
oir
DA
M2
07
_7
Su
nk
osi
II
DA
M2
09
_2
S
apta
ko
si R
iver
Up
per
Aru
n
DA
M2
09
_3
Aru
n I
II
DA
M2
09
_4
Lo
wer
Aru
n
DA
M2
09
_5
Kosi Hhogh Dam
DAM209_7
Kosi western canal
IRR109_3Kosi Eastern canal
IRR109_4
Kamala Dam
DAM209_1
Sapta Ganghaki Dam
DAM207_8
Kulekhani
DAM208_1
Eastern Gandhak
IRR107_3
Western Gandhak
IRR107_2
Rapti B
IRR105_6
Andhi Khola Dam
DAM207_3
Rapti Dam
DAM205_9
Surya B
IRR105_4
Chisapani (kamali) Dam
DAM205_8
Girija B
Lucknow City Supply
WS103_1
Sarda Sahayak
IRR105_2
Gomti river
Banbhasa Headworks
DAM205_3
Purnagiri dam
DAM205_2
Pancheswar dam
DAM205_1
Mah
akal
i (S
arad
a)
Riv
er
Kar
nal
i (G
hag
ra)
riv
er
Bab
ai (
Su
rya)
riv
er
Ko tti Behl Reservoir
DAM100_6East Ganga Canal
IRR100_2
Madhya East Ganga
IRR100_4
Kanpur city Supply
WS100_1
Lower Ganga Canal
IRR100_5
Upper Ganga Canal
IRR100_1
Madhya West Ganga
IRR100_3
Vyasi Dam
DAM101_2
Yamuna East Canal
IRR101_2
Yamuna River
Lakhwar Dam
DAM101_1
Yamuna West Canal
IRR101_1
Hinden R.Agra Canal
IRR101_3
Agra City Supply
WS101_2
River
Diversion
Dam (Planned)
Dam (Existing)
Irrigation
International Boundary
State Boundary
INF101_1
INF101_2
INF101_3
INF101_4
INF101_5
INF101_6
INF101_7
INF101_8
INF101_9
INF101_10
INF101_11
INF101_12
INF101_13
INF101_14
INF101_15
INF101_16
INF101_17
INF101_18
INF100_1
INF100_2
INF100_3
INF100_4
INF100_5
INF100_6
INF100_8
INF100_9
INF100_10 INF100_11INF100_12
INF100_13
INF100_14
INF100_15 INF100_16
INF100_17
INF102_1
INF102_2
INF103_1
INF104_1
INF205_1
INF205_2
INF205_3
INF205_4
INF205_5
INF205_6
INF205_7
INF205_8
INF105_9
INF105_10
INF105_11
INF106_1INF106_2
INF106_3
INF106_4
INF207_1
INF207_2
INF207_3
INF207_4
INF207_5
INF207_6INF208_1
INF208_2
INF209_1
INF209_2
INF209_3
INF209_4
INF209_5
INF209_6
INF210_1
INF110_2
INF111_1
INF111_2
INF111_4
INF312_1
INF313_1
INF314_1
IT01_1
IT01_2
IT01_3
IT01_4
IT01_6
IT01_5
IT01_7
IT01_9
IT01_10
IT01_11
IT01_12
IT00_1
IT00_2
IT00_3
IT00_4
IT00_5
IT00_6
IT00_7
IT00_8
IT00_9 IT00_10 IT00_11 IT00_12 IT00_13 IT00_14 IT00_15
IT02_1
IT02_2
IT03_1IT05_3
IT04_1
IT05_1
IT05_8
IT07_1
IT09_1
IT09_3
IT06_1
IT06_2
IT10_1
IT11_1
IT11_3
IT11_4
IT11_2
IT05_2
Rapti Nepal
IRR205_5
IRR209_2
Delhi Water Supply
WS101_1
Parwan Irrigation
IRR101_4
Pardkh
IRR101_9
IT01_8
INF100_7
IRR205_1IRR205_3
IT05_4 IT05_5
IT05_6
IT05_7
IRR207_1
IT08_1
IT09_2
IRR209_1
IT06_3
IRR106_3
INF111_3
END1
END2
IT00_16
IT00_17IT00_18
END3
IT05_9
IT07_2
Keolari
IRR101_7
IT01_13
IT01_14
IRR101_10
IRR101_11IT01_15
IRR101_12IT01_16
FL1
FL2
FL3FL4
FL5
FL6
FL7
FL8
IT00_19
IRR300_6
Pancheshwar Dam(proposed)
Chisapani (Karnali) Dam(proposed)
Kosi High Dam(proposed)
Development Scenarios
Climate Scenarios
Implications: Flooding
Implications: Hydropower
Implications: Irrigation
11
Existing Water Supply (dom, comm, ind) demand
Proposed DWS
Existing Irrigation scheme
Proposed new or expansion of existing irrigation scheme
Environmental flow requirement (EFR)
Existing Reservoir
Proposed new reservoir
Existing Reservoir to be rehabilitated
Aquifer Node
Connection Node
Start Node
S6 S7
Logar R.C4
C3
C2
C1R4: TangiWardak
R7: Gat
R3: Chak-e-WardakR2: Kajab
D4D2
S5
Surkhab R.Charkh R.
R5: Karwan R6: Surkhab
C5
S1
C12D7
A2
S3
R12: Haijan
A4
C10
S3a
A4aC12a
D3
D3a
A1
D5
C6
D11
D30
D14Kabul City C9
R1
R1a
R13: Amir Ghazi
S12
C7
R14: MaripurC8
Butkhak R.
S10
C16
R10: Panjshir I(Gulbahar)
R9: Barak
D23
S10AS9 Salang R.
Panjshir R.C21
S8
Garband R.
R8: Totumdara
D20
C20
C19
R11: Bagdara
A3 C24
S11
Barikow R.
C22
C23
Panjshir R.
Kabul R.
Kabul River Basin System Schematic
U. Kabul/ Maidan R.
Paghman R.
Qargha R.
C4a
D4a(Einak Mine)
C32
R15: Naghlu
R16A: Sarubi 1
R16B: Sarubi 2
R17: Laghman A
R18: Darunta
R19: Konar A
R20: Konar B "Site 4"
D40
R21: Kama
D42
C34
D43
C36
S16
S13
S15
D38D41
D37
C30
E1
Pul-i-Qarghai Hyd. Unit
C31
C332
S14
D39
Khas Konar on Konar R.
Pul-i-Gawerdesh (Lanay River)
S17 C37
Kabul River tributaries south of the SurkhandNo Data on FlowD43 is about 36000ha
C35
Surkhrud River
Kabul River at Dakah
No Data for Gauge at SaltanpurD42 is about 22000ha
S13A
13 Storage & Hydro Projects6 Conveyance Projects5 Groundwater Projects14 Irrigation Projects
International Basins in National Context
Afghanistan - Strategic Options Scoping in the Kabul River Basin
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Liv
e S
tora
ge
(MC
M)
Kaj
ab
Tan
gi
War
dag
Gat
Hai
jan
To
tum
dar
a
Bar
ak
Pan
jsh
ir
Bag
hd
ara
Lan
gh
man
Ko
nar
A
To
tal
Sto
rag
eD
evel
op
ed
Figure 6-6 Base Case Storage Options under Different Hydrologic Risk Options
Mean Annual Flow
Moderate Drought (1 in 5 yrs)
More Serious Drought (1 in 10 yrs)
Severe Drought Year
Prioritizing Investments in Kabul
River Basin 12
Uganda
Kenya
Ethiopia
Eritrea
Sudan
Egypt
DR Congo
Rwanda
BurundiTanzania
South Sudan
Nile Basin Initiative (NBI)
Eastern Nile
Nile Basin
220 /460MW
C2C3C1
1780 MW R4R7R5
1700 ME 1600 MW R6R7R8R9C10C10C12C12C12C13R13R14R15
Eastern Nile Basin System Schematic
R9Sennar
R12
Kha
shm
-el
-Gir
ba
R15 Aswan
R4
Kar
ado
bi
R8Roseires
R10Jabel Auliya
C10
C13 C12
R5
Ma
bil
R6
Me
nd
aia
R7
Bor
der
R3Lake Tana
S10
Wh
ite
Nil
e
Blue Nile (Abbay)
Baro
Up
per A
tbara
SetitAtbara
C1 C6
C5
C2
C16D21: New Valley
D22 D23
E1
E2
Mediterranean Sea
Sobat
Pib
or
S6
R2
Bar
o
Baro Birbir
C4
S2
Akobo
Gilo
S11
C9
Beles
R1Baro
S5
R11Rumela
S14
D14: Om Hagar
D13: Humera
C11 S15
D15: U. AtbaraD16: New Haifa
D11: Gezira
D10: Dinder
D9
D8
D7D6
D4
D12
D2
D1
R13 Merowe
R14 Dal
D17
D18
D19
D20
C7
C8 S9Doleib/Adar
C14 S16El Hawad
S12Dinder
S13Rahad
C3
S7Alw
ero
C15
S3
S4
D3
D5
Riv
er N
ile
Bar
o
R16L. Victoria
S1
D24
R17L. Kayoga
R18L. Albert
S17
D25
D26
C18
D27
C17
S8
Return to Interface
Strengthening regional institutions,
analysis, and investments
13
Eastern Nile Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project
Demonstration of Value of Regional Cooperation for flood forecasting and warning improvement in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt.
Soils
Canals
Wetlands
•••
•••
Rivers
14
Amu Darya Basin
Amu Darya Basin
Upper Amu Darya Basin
UzbekistanIrrigated Areas
Facilitating riparian cooperation dialogue and investments in the Aral Sea Basin.
15
16
By:Ashok SubramanianBridget BrownAaron Wolf
REACHING ACROSS THE WATERSFacing the Risks of Cooperation in International Waters
17
Introduction: What, How
Framework for Analysis
Case Studies
Understanding Risks
Understanding Risk Reduction
Pointers for Partners
Reflections
Reaching Across the Waters: Outline
18
Cooperation – Dialogue or action re: shared waters between countries.
International Waters – River shared by countries (may be border; may cross borders.
Benefits – Economic benefits. Risks – Perceived, may not be real. Risk Reduction – Actionable measures to
reduce perceived risks. Opportunity – Political; usually unpredictable.
Definitions
Framework for AnalysisBenefits, Risks, and Opportunities
Political Opportunity
Political Risk
EconomicBenefit
Economic Cost
Countries may pursue Unilateral development given
high risks and high costs
Countries most likelyto make a deal
Countries likely to consider a deal; risk reduction and
opportunity enhancementwould improve likelihood
Countries likely to consider a deal; benefit expansion would improve likelihood
19
20
E. Nile Basin, 1998-2004: Working together on the E. Nile Program, after historic conflicts
Ganges Basin, 1996-2000: Bilateral treaty between India-Bangladesh, after long negotiations
Niger Basin, 2000-2006: Revitalization of the Niger Basin Authority, after 4 decades of fragile existence
Syr Darya Basin, 1996-2000: F’wk agreement between 3 countries on energy, but did not sustain
Zambezi Basin, 2000-04: ZAMCOM is not signed by all, despite enormous efforts
The Cooperation Experience: River Basins
Ganges River Basin, 1996-2000
21
Eastern Nile Basin, 1998-2004
22
Niger River Basin, 2000-2006
23
Syr Darya, 1996-2002
24
Zambezi River Basin, 2000-2004
25
26
R I S K R E D U C T I O N
O P P O R T U N I T Y E N H A N C E M E N T
Political Opportunity
Political Risk
EconomicBenefit
Economic Cost
UNDERSTANDING RISKS
Risks: See next slide
27
Capacity and Knowledge - country’s confidence in itself to negotiate an agreement, and also having enough knowledge (for example, of the basin) to do so.
Accountability and Voice - country’s distrust in co-riparians, agencies or third parties as well as its desire to be heard and included in the cooperation process.
Sovereignty and Autonomy - country’s desire to have control over resources and infrastructure, and also to make decisions independently.
Equity and Access - country’s concern for fairness in the agreement, whether it is in specified flows or project costs, as well as its sense of entitlement to develop/use its fair share of the river.
Stability and Support - country’s concern that an agreement will not be honored by its own citizens or be widely supported politically.
Risks: 5 Types
28
CORE RISKS◦ Deep. Recur. Need Periodic Attention.
OPERATIONAL RISKS◦ Many interventions may be needed.
Core & Operational Risks
SOVEREIGNTY AUTONOMY
EQUITY ACCESS
CAPACITYKNOWLEDGE
ACCOUNTABILITY & VOICE
STABILITY & SUPPORT
Weak knowledge
Lack of Rules of
Engagement or
for decision making
Few forums for
debate and interaction
29
R I S K R E D U C T I O N
O P P O R T U N I T Y E N H A N C E M E N T
Political Opportunity
Political Risk
EconomicBenefit
Economic Cost
UNDERSTANDING RISK REDUCTION
Risk Reduction – See next Slide
30
Knowledge & Skills
Institutions
Agreement
Program
Legitimacy
Financing
Facilitation
SEVEN RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIESFa
cts
vs.
per
cept
ions
Dec
isio
n
mak
ing
Form
al?
Flexib
le?
TA?
Inve
sts?
Sequence of benefits
Forums for
debate
Supportin
g dialogue
31
CAPACITYKNOWLEDGE
ACCOUNTABILITY VOICE
SOVEREIGNTY AUTONOMY
EQUITY ACCESS
STABILITY SUPPORT
Knowledge & Skills
Institutions
Agreement
Program
Legitimacy
Financing
Facilitation or Guarantee
LINKINGRISKS&RISK REDUCTIONSTRATEGIES
No One Size Fits All Solutions
Conduct Quick
Assessment
Conduct Detailed
Assessment
Select Risk Reduction Measures
Expert Validation
Coordinate Support
Further Risk Reduction
Development Goals &
Consideration of Cooperation
Agreement(Risks & Opportunities)
No Agreement(Risks &
Opportunities)
Select Scale of
Engagement
PART
NERS
COUNTRIE
S
Engage in Risk
Reduction
ConductReassessment
Ongoing – Consideration of Benefits, Opportunities,
Risks and Internal Dialogue
Risk Identification and Action
32
33
Many Risk Reduction Strategies needed - Pooled approach
◦ Harmonization and Alignment.◦ Comparative strengths (GEF, UN, IFI, Bilaterals)◦ Financing and TA
Monitoring progress/outputs critical
Communication about intermediate steps
Incentives for Teams
Pointers for Partners
34
In it for the long haul…A long distance run..not a sprint
35
Core & Operational Risks
Mix of risk reduction strategies needed.
Appropriate rather than ideal solutions.
Different paths to cooperation, so different strokes for different risks/contexts.
Political Opportunity may override some risks.
Political Opportunity is unpredictable, depends on “beyond the water” issues (e.g., change of regime).
Political Opportunity opens doors – but Risk Reduction still important.
Reflections
Political Opportunity
Political Risk
EconomicBenefit
Economic Cost
Different Paths to Cooperation “Solutions for Situations”
36
37
The Nature of the Deal
Deal reached – but often fragile?
◦ Short term equilibrium, 2-3 years. But could move back. No once-for-all magic bullet.
◦ Deal may be in form, but substance needs work.
◦ Chance to initiate and institutionalize long term cooperative mechanisms?
◦ Big uncertainties in geopolitics, hydrology => Need for flexibility in deal. Implications for water (quantity) sharing?
Political Opportunity
Political Risk
EconomicBenefit
Economic Cost
Reflections/LessonsThe Last word
Systematic analysis and application helps.
Seize moments of political opportunity.Doable rather than desirable solutions.
Deals are temporary. Periodic assessment and action needed.
Solutions for situations.Train for the long haul
38
Lessons from work on International Waters
Information Need to capitalize on new information products (incl. earth observation) Move from limited data sharing to improving access to data, tools, and
knowledge products in the public domain (e.g. for disaster management, basin planning)
Institutions Strengthen regional institutions with strong links to national-level activities Strengthen links with academia and other knowledge institutions (e.g. through
internships) Improve shared vision planning and financing (riparian governments,
development partners)
Investments Improve frameworks to identify investments with development impacts at
regional scale Facilitate quality preparation, appraisal, and implementation of these
investments
+ Need to remain engaged in the long-term and look for emerging opportunities even in difficult situations of regional cooperation… 39