IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency

INPRO Dialogue Forum 8: Toward Nuclear Energy System

Sustainability: Economics, Resource Availability and Institutional

Arrangements

Overview of the INPRO Methodology

in the area of

Environment:

Impact from Depletion of Resources

Presented by Vladimir KUZNETSOV

NENP/INPRO Section

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I. INPRO objectives, methodology, architecture and assessment areas

II. Interfaces of NES and environment

III. Definitions

II. Revised INPRO manual on environment

III. Structure of the area of Environment – depletion of resources

IV. Changes against IAEA_TECDOC-1575, vol. 7

V. Resources: definitions

VI. Availability of resources

VII. Impact of natural U cost on LUEC

VIII. Scope of assessment (UR1)

IX. Assessment approach (UR1)

X. Steps in assessment (UR1)

XI. Scope of assessment (UR2)

XII. Sources reflecting upon global supply and demand in natural U

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INPRO Objectives

INPRO cooperates with Member States to ensure that sustainable nuclear energy is available to help meet the energy needs of the 21st century in accordance with UN concept of sustainability.

Brundtland definition of sustainability: Development that meets the needs of the present

without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.

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Architecture of INPRO Methodology: NES Sustainability Assessment – NESA

Basic Principles : goals for development of

sustainable NES (14).

User Requirements:

what should be done by

designer, operator, industry

and/or State to meet goal

defined in Basic Principles (52).

Criteria-Indicators &

Acceptance Limits: Metrics to check whether a

User Requirement has been

met (125).

Basic Principles

User Requirements

Criteria

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Areas assessed in the framework of a NESA

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Sustainable

Nuclear Energy

System

(NES)

Economics

Safety

(Nuclear Reactor)

Safety

(Nuclear Fuel

Cycle Facilities)

Infrastructure

Environment

Waste

Management

Physical protection

Proliferation

Resistance

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Nuclear Energy System Boundary

Mining & Milling

Fuel Processing

Energy Conversion

Spent Fuel &

Waste Management

EnvironmentOther Industries

RecyclingRecycling

Waste Disposal

Environmental

Effects

Environmental

Stressors

Environmental

Stressors

Fissile & Fertile MaterialsFissile & Fertile MaterialsEnergy &

Industrial

Materials

Energy &

Industrial

Materials Other MaterialsOther Materials

Construction Operation DecommissioningConstruction Operation Decommissioning

Interfaces of a nuclear energy system and

environment

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Definitions (1)

“Environment” definition includes :

• Human beings.

• Non-human biota.

• Abiotic components, including soil, water

and air.

• Natural resources and landscape.

• Interactions among these components.

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Definitions (2)

• “Environmental effect” definition includes

detrimental change caused by:

• Physical, chemical or biological change.

• Health effects on people, plants and animals.

• Effects on quality of life.

• Depletion of resources.

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I. INPRO Methodology for Sustainability Assessment

of Nuclear Energy Systems: Environmental Impact of

Stressors

II. INPRO Methodology for Sustainability Assessment

of Nuclear Energy Systems: Environmental Impact

from Depletion of Resources (Nuclear Energy Series

NG-T-3.13)

9 Revised INPRO manual on Environment is divided in

two volumes

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Structure of the Area of Environment – Depletion of

Resources (1)

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Basic Principles BP: goals for development of sustainable NES.

User Requirements UR: what should be done by designer, operator, industry and/or State to meet goal defined in Basic Principle.

BP (Availability of

Resources)

UR1 (Consistency with

resource availability)

CR 1.1

CR 1.2

CR 1.3

CR 1.4

CR 1.5

CR 1.6

UR2 (Adequate net energy output)

CR 2.1 Criteria CR: Assessor’s tools to check whether a User Requirement has been met .

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Structure of the Area of Environment – Depletion of

Resources (2)

Basic Principle BP (Availability of resources):

A nuclear energy system (NES) shall be capable of

contributing to the energy needs in the 21st century

while making efficient use of non-renewable resources.

Two User Requirements:

• UR2.1: Consistency with resource availability:

All needed material resources are available and efficiently

used

• UR2.2: Adequate net energy output.

Energy output surpasses energy input in reasonable short

time

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Structure of the Area of Environment – Depletion of

Resources (3)

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Criteria Indicators (IN) and Acceptance Limits (AL)

UR1 Consistency with

resource availability:

The NES should be able

to contribute to the

world’s energy needs during the 21st century

without running out of

fissile/fertile material and

other non-renewable

materials, with account taken of reasonably

expected uses of these

materials external to the

NES. In addition, the NES

should make efficient use of non-renewable

resources.

CR1.1 fissile/ fertile

material

IN1.1: quantity, Fj(t), of fissile/fertile material type j available for use in the

NES at time t.

AL1.1: Fj(t) > Dj(t), quantity available for NES should be bigger than quantity

needed for any t < 100 years.

CR1.2 non-renewable

material

IN1.2: quantity, Qi(t), of material type i available for use in the NES at time t.

AL1.1: Qj (t) > Dj (t),

quantity available for NES, Qj (t), should be bigger than quantity needed, Dj (t),

for any t < 100 years.

CR1.3 power supply to

NES

IN1.3: P(t): power available (from both internal and external sources) for use in

the NES at time t.

AL1.3: P(t) ≥ PNES(t), for any t < 100 years, where PNES(t) is the power required

by the NES at time t.

CR1.4 end use of

uranium

IN1.4: Ueu = end use (net) energy delivered by the NES per Mg of uranium

mined.

AL1.4: Ueu > U0

U0 = maximum achievable end use for an existing NES with a once through

(open) fuel cycle.

CR1.5 end use of thorium IN1.5: Theu = end use (net) energy delivered by a NES per Mg of thorium

mined.

AL1.5: Theu > Th0

Th0 = maximum achievable end use for a current operating thorium cycle.

CR1.6 end use of non-

renewable resources

IN1.6: Ci = end use (net) energy delivered by the NES per Mg of limited non-

renewable resource i consumed.

AL1.6: Ci > C0

C0 to be determined on a case specific basis.

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Structure of the Area of Environment – Depletion of

Resources (4)

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UR2 Adequate net energy

output: The energy output

of the NES should exceed the

energy required to

implement, operate and

decommission the NES

within an acceptably short

period.

CR2.1 amortization

time

IN2.1: TEQ = time required to match the total

energy input into the NES with energy output

(years).

AL2.1: TEQ << TL

TL = intended life time of NES.

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Changes against IAEA TECDOC-1575, vol. 7 (1)

(1) Manual on Environment is split in two manuals, one dedicated to depletion of resources, another one – to stressors

(2) Background material updated, for example, Red Book 2009 changed to Red Book 2011

(3) Extended summary on results of the completed collaborative project on Global architecture of innovative NES with thermal and fast reactors and a closed nuclear fuel cycle (GAINS) IAEA Nuclear Energy Series No. NP-T-1.14 is included as Appendix 3

(4) INS changed to NES

(5) Numbering of BP, UR, CR, IN and AL changed to exclude ‘2.’ at the left

(6) No changes to indicators (IN)

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Changes against IAEA TECDOC-1575, vol. 7 (2)

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Changes to Criteria (CR)

New: Old:

CR1.1: Fissile/fertile material (no changes in the indicator)

CR1.2: Non-renewable material

CR1.3: Power supply to NES (no change in the

indicator)

CR1.4: End use of uranium

CR1.5: End use of uranium

CR.1.6: End use of non-renewable resources

CR2.1.1: Fissile material

CR2.1.2: Non-renewable material

CR2.1.3: Power

CR2.1.4: End use of uranium

CR1.5: End use of uranium

CR.1.6: End use of non-renewable resources

Changes to Acceptance Limits (AL)

New: Old:

AL1.1: Fj(t) > Dj(t), quantity available for NES should

be bigger than quantity needed for any t < 100 years (AL1.1 applies to both IN1.1 and IN1.2)

AL2.1: TEQ << TL, TL = intended life time of NES

AL2.1.1: Fj(t) > 0 for any t < 100 years

AL2.1.2: Fj(t) > 0 for any t < 100 years

AL2.2.1: TEQ <k*TL, TL = intended life time of NES. k<1

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Resources: Definitions

Definition of terms

• Primary resources for nuclear fuel:

• Natural uranium (Unat)

• Natural thorium (Th)

• Secondary resources for nuclear fuel:

• Depleted uranium (DU)

• High enriched uranium (HEU)

• Spent nuclear fuel (SNF)

• Reprocessed uranium (REPU)

• Recycled plutonium (Pu)

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Availability of resources (1)

Classification of U resources (Red Book 2011)

• Conventional Resources:

• Reasonable Assured

• Inferred

• Prognosticated

• Speculative

• Unconventional Resources:

• Phosphates ~ 7 to 22 million tU,

Carbonatite, Lignite,

Seawater ~ 4 billion tU.

~ 7 million tU

~ 11 million tU

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Availability of resources (2)

Cost categories of uranium resources

Costs to recover U

$/kgU

Identified conventional U resources

1000 tU

< 260 7095

< 130 5362

< 80 3077

< 40 680

(Identified = reasonable assured + inferred)

Red Book 2011

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Impact of natural U costs on Levelized Unit

Electricity Cost (LUEC)

Structure of nuclear electricity generation cost (for

large reactors) (OECD-NEA, 2011)

Natural U cost contribution to LUEC in the state-of-

the-art LWRs is below 5%!

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Scope of assessment (UR1)

Confirmation of resource availability for:

• Fissile/ fertile material.

• Other non renewable material, e.g. Zr.

• External power supply.

Efficient use of uranium/ thorium and non

renewable materials.

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(1) Assessment approach (UR1)

Regarding the availability of sufficient resources of fissile and fertile

material, a global market for them exists, which necessitates a

global assessment of such availability

The result will be sensitive to whether the assessing country

considers global resource market (implying trade) or domestic

resource only – the results could be very different based on

individual country’s trade policies and circumstances

Recognizing that global assessment is beyond any reasonable

capacity of an individual country, the report provides background

materials and summarizes the results of some international global

assessment studies that could be referred to and referenced in the

corresponding national assessments

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(2) Assessment approach (UR1)

If a country performing NES assessment has large plans for its nuclear energy

programme and foresees it could eventually become a major player in global

nuclear energy markets, then it makes sense to consider joining the efforts with

other countries to perform an updated global resource availability assessment.

Such assessments are being periodically undertaken under the aegis or renowned

international organizations, and one option to do so is to join the activities of the

IAEA/INPRO task ‘Global scenarios: http://www.iaea.org/INPRO/activities/index.html

Notwithstanding the existence of a global market for NES related non-renewable

resources, national assessment also makes sense once the country considers

benefitting in its national nuclear power programme from its own domestic

resources.

Regional assessment could be recommended in the case of existing or foreseen

long term partnerships with particular neighbouring or non-neighbouring countries

with which good relations and cooperation in the nuclear energy field exists. Such

an assessment could foster further cooperation potentially resulting in a sustainable

regional NES

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Steps in assessment (UR1)

INPRO Methodolgy assessment of U resources:

1. Determine availability of global and national (and regional) resources of uranium until 2100.

• Global resources: “Red Book” from OECD/NEA-IAEA.

2. Determine global and national (and regional) demand of uranium until 2100.

• Global demand: e.g., from IAEA NES No. NP-T-1.14.

3. Confirm availability of uranium needed for global and national (and regional) Nuclear Energy System until 2100.

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Scope of assessment (UR2)

Adequate net energy output:

• Time till total energy input equals output TEQ << life time of

NES.

• Example:

• PWR with single recycling of Pu needs TEQ of about 5

months.

• Life time of PWR about 40+ years.

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Sources reflecting upon global supply and demand in

natural U

OECD/ Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY,

Uranium 2011: Resources, Production and Demand (‘Red Book’), OECD, Paris (2012).

INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY, Framework for Assessing Dynamic Nuclear

Energy Systems for Sustainability, Final Report of the INPRO Collaborative Project on Global

Architectures of Innovative Nuclear Energy Systems with Thermal and Fast Reactors and a

Closed Nuclear Fuel Cycle (GAINS), IAEA Nuclear Energy Series No. NP-T-1.14, IAEA, Vienna

(2013).

INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY, Nuclear Energy Development in the 21st

Century: Global Scenarios and Regional Trends, IAEA Nuclear Energy Series No. NP-T-1.8,

IAEA, Vienna (2010).

INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY, Role of Thorium to Supplement Fuel Cycles of

Future Nuclear Energy Systems, IAEA Nuclear Energy Series No. NF-T-2.4, IAEA, Vienna

(2012).

OECD/NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY, A Preliminary Assessment of Raw Material Inputs that

would be Required for Rapid Growth in Nuclear Generating Capacity, OECD/NEA, Paris (2011).

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Homogeneous model Heterogeneous separate model Heterogeneous synergistic model

G G1 G2

G3

G1 G2

G3

GAINS analytical framework (example)

1. Models of the ‘nuclear world’ built & agreed

• homogeneous models

• heterogeneous models: groups can operate

separately or synergistically

G1 - recycling strategy

group;

G2 - direct disposal

/reprocessing abroad

G3 - minimal

infrastructure: disposal

or reprocessing abroad

Homogeneous Heterogeneous Separate Heterogeneous Synergistic

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Thank You!

For more information, please, visit:

http://www.iaea.org/INPRO/

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IAEA

INPRO Methodology

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Basic Principles BP: goals for development of sustainable NES.

User Requirements UR: what should be done by designer, operator, industry and/or State to meet goal defined in Basic Principle.

Criteria CR: Assessor’s tools to check whether a User Requirement has been met .

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Definitions (3)

“Stressor” definition includes:

Entities that can induce an adverse response

in the environment:

• Physical, or

• Chemical, or

• Biological effect.

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