overview of the freight analysis framework rolf r. schmitt january, 2008

Overview of the Freight Analysis Framework

Rolf R. Schmitt

January, 2008

Federal Highway AdministrationU.S. Department of Transportation

To inform policy and investment,we need to understand

How does the movement of freight affect the transportation system? Contributions to congestion, infrastructure wear, safety, the

environment, revenues

How does the transportation system affect freight movement? Expected and unexpected delay, costs

How does the economy adjust? Economic productivity, shifting economic activity among

regions, global competitiveness


To answer these questions,we need to understand

How much freight moves from place to place? Type of commodity Weight Value

How is the freight carried? Mode of transportation Route used

When is the freight carried? Season Time of day


The big picture

Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) integrates data from many sources into: Region-to-region tons and value by all modes for

shipments in 1997 and 2002, provisional estimates for most recent year, and forecasts through 2035

Average number of long-distance, freight-hauling trucks on individual highway segments for 2002 and 2035

Freight Performance Measures Program Speeds of 400,000 trucks on 25 Interstate Highways by

time and place Crossing delay at major border crossings


What FAF does

Estimate total volume of freight moving between and within FAF regions by mode and commodity

Assign longer distance flows (among places at least 50 miles apart) to corridors with reasonable accuracy

Forecast total volume of freight moving between and within FAF regions by mode and commodity

Forecast the pressure future freight flows would place on the existing network


What FAF does not do

Estimate flows accurately for areas smaller than FAF regionsEstimate flows accurately for individual routes with alternative paths and for places less than 50 miles apartEstimate temporal variations in freight flowsEstimate or be sensitive to costs of transportationInclude effects of capacity limitations in forecasts of future demandForecast future capacity expansion


Bottom line

FAF provides a comprehensive national picture of freight flows and a baseline forecast to support policy studiesFAF indicates to states and localities their major trading partners and the volumes and sources of through traffic at the corridor levelLocal planning and project analysis requires supplemental data collection to provide local detailPolicy analysis requires supplemental models to make forecasts sensitive to cost and other variables


FAF versions

Version 1 covers longer distance flows for 1998, 2010, and 2020 by all modes except pipeline, with available public detail and transparency limited by proprietary dataVersion 2 makes the most of the 2002 Economic Census and is based on public data and transparent methodsVersion 2.2 corrects problems encountered with international flows the initial release of version 2Version 2.3 will include ton miles estimates and final adjustments to version 2Version 3 will be based on the 2007 Economic Census


FAF details: region-to-region flows

Origin-Destination Database Value and weight for all domestic shipments, exports, and

imports (excludes only foreign-to-foreign via US) 6 modes (truck, rail, water, air, intermodal, pipeline and

unknown) 114 domestic CFS regions, 17 additional international

gateways, 7 international regions 43 commodity classes (2-digit SCTG codes) Estimates for Economic Census years (1997 and 2002),

forecasts for 2010 through 2035. Provisional estimates for most recent year


FAF details: the 114 CFS regions


FAF details: trucks on the network

Network Flow Database FAF trucks (which carry commodities between locations at

least 50 miles apart), other trucks, passenger vehicles, and selected capacity measures for individual highway segments

Covers over 240,000 miles of highways (46,000 miles of the Interstate System plus 115,000 for balance of National Highway System, plus 47,000 miles for balance of National Truck Network plus 35,000 of other roads)

Estimate for 2002, forecast of traffic with no change to capacity for 2035


FAF details: trucks on the network


FAF details: data sources

Commodity Flow Survey (CFS)

Transborder Freight Transportation Data

Rail Waybill

Waterborne Commerce

Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey

Highway Performance Monitoring System

National Transportation Atlas Database

Transportation Satellite Account


FAF details: relationship with CFS

The CFS is the major data source for the FAF and provides domestic geography and definitions of modes/intermodal

The CFS has greater commodity detail and identifies hazardous cargo, but does not include imports, shipments from farms, shipments of crude petroleum and municipal solid waste, etc.

The FAF estimates tons and value of freight not covered by the CFS


FAF details: relationship with the Rail Waybill

Shipments by more than one railroad are counted more than once in the Rail Waybill and only once in the FAF

Shipments by rail and one or more other modes are counted as rail in the Rail Waybill and as Intermodal in the FAF


FAF details: relationship with Waterborne Commerce

Shipments by a combination of deep sea, inland water, and intra-port are counted once in the FAF and multiple times in Waterborne Commerce

Crude petroleum from off-shore platforms is counted as water in Waterborne Commerce and pipeline in FAF

Shipments to and from Puerto Rico are counted as domestic in Waterborne Commerce and as part of Latin America in FAF


FAF details: what is intermodal?

FAF intermodal is more than TOFC-COFC All 2+ modal combinations reported in CFS, including bulk

products Postal and courier services for packages weighing less than 100

pounds reported in CFS Excludes air-truck combination for shipments weighing more

than 100 pounds, which is not separated from air only

FAF intermodal does not include single mode segments of a supply chain involving multiple shippersFAF classifies intermodal shipments across borders with Canada and Mexico by the mode of entry


FAF details: what is intermodal?

Domestic only 1.1 percent of tons and 8.9 percent of value in 2002

Domestic leg of imports and exports 1.3 percent of tons and 2.6 percent of value in 2002

Imports and exports 66.1 percent of tons and 45.9 percent of value in 2002

Domestic plus imports plus exports 6.6 percent of tons and 14.7 percent of value in 2002


FAF details: relationship with GDP

The value of FAF shipments exceeds GDP FAF counts each commodity move during the year: grain

worth $1,000 from farm to grain elevator which becomes grain worth $1,200 from elevator to bakery which becomes bread worth $2,000 from bakery to store is three tons of freight.

GDP counts net value: the value of bread consumed by households during the year and the value grain still in storage and bread still on the shelves at the end of the year.


Building on FAF

Improved forecasts Quick Response Freight Manual NCFRP project on freight forecasting Links to HERS and other policy models

Improved data More accurate truck counts Links to freight performance measures and vehicle

classification data for understanding consequences and temporal variation

Local data collection for local detail


FAF quality depends on customer feedback

Do the estimates match observations? FAF databases are huge, and unexpected results do not appear

until users dig into the details Most unexpected region-to-region flows have plausible

explanations, but some flows appear to be improperly assigned among modes or commodities.

Adjustments will be made where feasible in version 2.3

Does the de facto Freight Data Architecture make sense? Architecture includes modal definitions, commodity

classification systems, and other means of linking across national data sets and between national and local data

NCFRP project will specify what should be in an architecture


Questions and feedback

FAFwww.ops.fhwa/dot.gov/freight/freight_analsysis/faf

Rolf Schmitt FAF design, freight modeling, and freight data [email protected]

Michael SprungFAF products and data [email protected]

Freight performance measureswww.ops.fhwa/dot.gov/freight/freight_analsysis/perform_meas

Crystal JonesTravel times in freight-significant corridors and border crossing [email protected]

overview of the freight analysis framework rolf r. schmitt january, 2008

Documents

movement of freight

freight movement

federal highway administration

faf regions

costs of transportation

transportation system

pressure future freight

total volume of freight