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Overview of Disaster Risk Reduction in Indonesia

Harkunti P. Rahayu, Ph.D. Chair WG1 ICG Indian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System

Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Bandung Institute of Technology harkunti@sappk.itb.ac.id and harkunti@gmail.com

Topics:

1   Paradigm Shift in Disaster Management 2   State of the Art in Disaster Risk Reduction vs.

Sustainability Issue 3   Basic Concept of Tsunami Risk Assessment 4   Strategy of Tsunami Risk Reduction

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Paradigm Shift in Disaster Management

§  Shift from disaster management (Hyogo Framework of Action - HFA) focus to more disaster risk reduction (Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction - SFDRR): Ø to prevent new disaster risks, reduce existing disaster risks and

thus to strengthen resilience

§  “Prevent new and reduce existing disaster risk through the implementation of integrated and inclusive economic, structural, legal, social, health, cultural, educational, environmental, technological, political and institutional measures that prevent and reduce hazard exposure and vulnerability to disaster, increase preparedness for effective response and build back better in recovery, and thus strengthen resilience”

SFDRR  

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SDGs – Sustainable Development Goals

Role of SFDRR in 17 SDGs

§  Goal 11 is to make cities and human settlements inclusive, save, resilient and sustainable •  By 2030: significantly reduce number of deaths, number of

people at risk, and direct economic losses caused by disaster, including water-related disaster.

•  By 2020: goal 11 targets on substantially increase number of cities and human settlement in adopting and implementing integrated policies and plans toward inclusion, resource efficiency, mitigation and adaptation to climate change, resilience to disasters, and develop and implement holistic disaster risk management at all levels.

§  Goal 17 is partnership for the goals à aiming to strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development.

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Seven Global Targets of SFDRR (2015-2030)

Substantially Reduce by 2030: 1.  Global disaster mortality à 100,000 global mortality rate. 2.  Number of affected people globally à 100,000. 3.  Direct disaster economic loss in relation to global gross domestic product

(GDP) 4.  Disaster damage to critical infrastructure and disruption of basic services,

among them health and educational facilities, including through developing their resilience

Substantially increase by 2030: 5.  Number of countries with national and local disaster risk reduction

strategies. 6.  International cooperation to developing countries through adequate and

sustainable support to complement their national actions for implementation of this Framework.

7.  Access to multi-hazard early warning systems (MHEWS) and disaster risk information and assessments

RECONSTRUCTION  

RECOVERY   RESPONSE  

IMPACT  ASSESSMENT  Post  Disaster  

CRISIC  MANAGEMENT  

MITIGATION  

PREPAREDNESS  PREDICTION  and  EARLY  WARNING  

Pre  Disaster  Protec?on  

RISK  MANAGEMENT  

Disaster Management

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PERGESERAN PARADIGMA

Sumber:  Pribadi,  2012  

PERUBAHAN SISTEM PB DI INDONESIA

 

SISTEM LAMA SISTEM BARU

Dasar Hukum Bersifat sektoral Berlaku umum dan mengikat seluruh departemen, masyarakat dan lembaga non pemerintah

Paradigma Tanggap darurat Mitigasi, tanggap darurat, rehabilitasi dan rekonstruksi

Lembaga Bakornas PB, Satkorlak dan Satlak

BNPB, BPBD PROPINSI, BPBD Kab/Kota

Peran Masyarakat Terbatas Melibatkan masyarakat secara aktif

Pembagian Tanggung Jawab

Sebagian besar pemerintah pusat

Tanggung jawab pemerintah pusat, propinsi dan kabupaten

Perencanaan Pembangunan

Belum menjadi bagian aspek perencanaan pembangunan

Rencana Aksi Nasional Pengurangan Resiko Bencana (RAN PRB)

• Rencana Penanggulangan Bencana (RPB)

• Rencana Aksi Daerah Pengurangan Resiko Bencana (RAD PRB)

Pendekatan Mitigasi Kerentanan Analilsa resiko (menggabungkan antara kerentanan dan kapasitas)

Forum kerjasama antar pemangku kepentingan

Belum ada National Platform (akan)

Provincial Platform (akan)

Alokasi Anggaran Tanggung jawab pemerintah pusat

Tergantung pada tingkatan bencana

Pedoman Penanggulangan Bencana

Terpecah dan bersifat sektoral

Mengacu pada pedoman yang dibuat oleh BNPB dan BPBD

Keterkaitan Dengan Tata Ruang

Belum menjadi aspek Aspek bencana harus diperhitungkan dalam penyusunan tata ruang

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KOMPONEN SISTEM NASIONAL PB

Sumber:  BNPB,  2010  

Disaster Risk Reduction Ingredient

RISK  HAZARD   VULNERABILITY  

CAPACITY  x  

=  

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Assessing Tsunami Risk

Is  your  coast  prone  to  tsunamis  ?  

Are  your    communi?es  vulnerable?  

Are  your    communi?es  Properly  Prepared?  

What  is  the  tsunami  risk  to  your  communi?es  ?  

1.  Hazard  

2.  Vulnerability  

3.  Capacity  

Assessing and Managing Tsunami Risk

How  to  improve  your  Preparedness  for  tsunamis  

How  to  Mi?gate  the  tsunami  risk  ?  

Is  your  coast  prone  To  tsunamis  ?  

Are  your    communi?es  vulnerable?  

Are  your    communi?es  Properly  Prepared?  

What  is  the  tsunami  risk  to  your  communi?es  ?  

1  

2  high   medium   low   no  

Risk  

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Mozambique Risk Index (Multi Hazard Except Tsunami)

INFORM 2015 Risk Index §  The INFORM model adopts 3 aspects

of vulnerability reflected in the UNISDR definition. 1.  Aspects of physical exposure and

physical vulnerability are integrated in the hazard & exposure dimension

2.  Aspect of fragility of the socio-economic system becomes INFORM's vulnerability dimension

3.  Aspect of lack of resilience to cope and recover is treated under the lack of coping capacity dimension.

§  Index for Risk Management 2015 (INFORM 2015) - Inter-Agency Standing Committee Task Team for Preparedness and Resilience and the European Commission- http://www.inform-index.org

  A  Introduction  

I  Institutional  Risk  Assessment  and  Management  within  a  DRR  Framework  

 

Assessing  your  tsunami  risk  (B-­‐E)  

Reducing  your  tsunami  risk  (F-­‐H)  

 

G  Reducing  your  risk  by  strategic  management  

 

 

H  Improving  your  preparedness  for  tsunamis  

H.2  Early  Warning  Systems  

H.4  Risk  Transfer  

D  Assessing  your  preparedness  

C  Assessing  your  vulnerability  

E  Evaluating  your  tsunami  risk  

B  Assessing  the  tsunami  hazard  

Tsunami Risk Assessment and Disaster Risk Reduction

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§  Knowing the potential for a tsunami to impact the country’s coast •  Earthquake Source for Tsunami (Local, Mid-Distant, or Far

Field) •  Other potential source of Tsunami •  Regional Tsunami Hazard Information

§  Assessing the likelihood of a tsunami impact on the country’s shore •  Evidence (historical and geological)

§  Estimating the physical effect of tsunami impact on the country’s shore •  Modeling of tsunami sources (Propagation, inundation)

§  Develop Local Tsunami Hazard Map •  Based on selected / representatives scenario

1. Understanding Tsunami Hazard

Is Your Coast Prone to Tsunami ?

§  Define the geographical scale and limits of the assessment: 1:250,000 up to 1:25,000 or 1:5,000

§  Define the dimension of vulnerability approach (Social, Physical, Economic, Environment, etc.)

§  Create an inventory and exposure database of people and their supporting systems.

§  Identify levels of vulnerability for specified tsunami hazard scenario(s) and required response times for evacuation.

§  Determine the losses caused by a tsunami impact event §  Develop vulnerability map(s) and reports of the area.

2. Assessing Vulnerability

Are Your Communities Vulnerable ?

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DISASTER

HAZARDS

Hazard Sources

VULNERABILITY HAZARD

Dynamic Pressure

Dynamic Pressure

Main Trigger

Main Trigger

Main Trigger

PROGRESSION OF VULNERABILITY

DISASTER

•  Physic •  Non-physic R = H x V

R = H x V / C •  Politic System •  Economic Policy

•  Strength •  Weakness •  Opportunity •  Threat

§  Are there any early warning system, how effective is it? Identify and appraise weaknesses in early warning systems and responses.

§  Appraise if the response to a tsunami timely and efficient. §  Are there any community based disaster preparedness established

within the community at risk §  Identify and appraise the condition of vertical evacuation shelters

and evacuation routes. §  Estimate the time required for the population to reach shelters and

safe areas. §  Assess the application of risk transfer mechanisms which would

facilitate post-impact recovery i.e. insurance scheme established?

3. Assessing Capacity or Preparedness

Are Your Communities Properly Prepared ?

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§  Are early warning procedures robust and effective?

§  Are warnings reaching those at risk who need them?

§  Is there enough time for people to reach safe areas located inland? §  Will people evacuate to shelters/safe areas when tsunami warning is

issued? §  Are evacuation shelters and safe areas really safe? §  Are exercises conducted regularly?

Early warning system à how effective ?

A  Tsunami  Early  Warning  System  needs  to  be  regularly  tested  to  ensure  not  only  its  technical  operability  but  also  the  awareness  of  people  at  risk  of  how  it  operates  and  how  they  should  react  to  a  warning.    

•  Do  you  have  a  24/7  facility  and  staff  on  duty  for  receiving  tsunami  alert  messages  TSP  or  NTWC  ?    •  Are  communiRes  at  risk  able  to  receive  warnings  at  any  Rme  of  day  or  night?  •  Does  early  warning  system  have  specific  procedures  (SOP)  to  ensure  that  warnings  reach  groups  with  

a  higher  degree  of  vulnerability  –  children,  the  elderly,  women,  difable  people?  •  Does  early  warning  system  have  procedures  (SOP)  to  ensure  that  warnings  reach  those  with  large  

numbers  of  people  congregate  –  commercial  areas,  bus  and  train  staRons,  public  markets,  etc.?  •  Does  early  warning  system  have  procedures  to  ensure  that  warnings  reach  indigenous  groups?  •  Are  warnings  issued  in  languages  that  are  easily  understood  by  those  at  risk?    

LOCAL AND REGIONAL CHALLENGES

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Ironic  Panic  shown  by  Banda  Aceh  people  tried  to  go  to  safer  place  (kompas.com)  none  going  to  ver?cal  evacua?on  shelter  

April  11

,  2012  

in  Band

a  Aceh  

Tsunami  Warnin

g  System  in  Pl

ace,  Risk  

Assessment  a

nd  DM  in  Pl

ace,  Ver?ca

l  

Evacua?on

 in  Place,  b

ut  …..  

§  The outer-rise earthquake on 11 April, 2012, triggered activation of tsunami warning system in Indonesia. A warning was issued to the public by NTWC within five to 12 min, according to SOP. The national media also broadcast the warning.

§  The reaction of communities varied:

•  In Banda Aceh, which was affected by the 2004 tsunami, communities fled in panic away from the sea, as shown in the photo.

•  In Padang, West Sumatra, a lot of communities without direct experience of a tsunami refused to evacuate, though they did admit to receiving warning messages by media, community radio network, or siren

§  Provincial government in West Sumatra decided not to activate their siren, because of uncertainty as to whether a tsunami would be generated and since their popular education made no mention of an outer-rise scenario for triggering evacuation orders.

§  This particular event vividly demonstrated how communities and local government can make different and unpredictable choices in responding to real events, compared to drills and exercises.

§  Taking account of social behaviour in evacuation and recovery planning à explain in the next session

§  Assess risk for each dimension of vulnerability in respect of a tsunami scenario with a defined probability.

§  Develop risk maps covering possible scenarios as well as existing conditions of a designated coastal areas (different scale) covering each of the different dimensions of vulnerability.

§  Communicate the risk assessment outputs to all levels involved in the coastal management process. The assessments are vital inputs to policy-making, determining the nature and level of response for risk reduction within the coastal management plan.

4. Analyzing the Risk

What is the Tsunami Risk to your community ?

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Multi-Hazard Tsunami Risk Scenario …

Example:  Tsunami  Scenario  

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Key Output of Risk Assessment

§  assessments of risk for each dimension of vulnerability (or sector of development) in respect of a tsunami scenario with a defined probability;

§  risk maps covering future scenarios as well as existing conditions produced for the designated coastal areas, whether at the regional or the local scale, covering each of the different dimensions of vulnerability (or each development sector) for the specified tsunami scenario(s); and

§  effective communication of risk assessment outputs to all levels involved in the coastal management process.

§  The assessments are vital inputs to policy-making, determining the nature and level of response for risk reduction within the coastal management plan.

1.  Reducing your risk by strategic management ü Confirm temporal and geographical scales and limits of assessment. ü Review options for strategic risk reduction. ü Consider a hybrid approach to response measures. ü  Incorporate other coastal management goals in response. ü Apply decision-analysis tools in management process. ü  Involve the public in decision-making processes.

§  Example of mitigation ü Using natural and artificial structural protection à mangrove, coastal

pines tree etc. ü Sea wall ü Building codes to reduce physical vulnerability of infrastructure

5. Tsunami Risk Reduction 1. Reducing your risk by strategic management

§  Strategic management options for tsunami risk reduction balance social and economic pressures against environmental considerations, including sustainability and appropriateness to the scale of the management area.

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Structural Mitigation

Fudai  

Taro  

 

High Water

Seawall

Shoreline

1.  Land-use planning including development ‘setback’ 2.  Built Back Better in Recovery Planning 3.  Pre vs. Post Disaster Recovery Planning 4.  Risk Transfer mechanism: Insurance

2. Improving your preparedness for tsunami

 Development setback line

Shoreline

High water

X Retreat from shoreline

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Otsuchi – Iwate Prefecture

Review  PR  KRB  di  Indonesia  Dokumen  Kementerian  ATR  

HarkunR  P.  Rahayu,  PhD  IABI  Ikatan  Ahli  Kebencanaan  Indonesia  

Launching  dan  Lokakarya  Penataan  Ruang  Kawasan  Rawan  Bencana  di  Indonesia,    Kementerian  ATR,  Jakarta  1-­‐2  Agustus,  2016  

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Dokumen Penataan Ruang Kawasan Rawan Bencana– Kementrian ATR

32

What is the Preparedness?

RECOVERY PLAN: -  Recovery -  Rehabilitation -  Reconstruction

MITIGATION PLAN

EWS

Update

REHABILITATION & RECONSTRUCTION PREVENTION & MITIGATION

EMERGENCY RESPONSE PREPAREDNESS

Rapid Assessment

Risk Assessment

RECOVERY  OPERATION PLAN CONTINGENCY

PLAN

DISASTER MANAGEMENT PLAN

Situa-on:  During  &  Post  Disaster  

EMERGENCY  RESPONSE  

Situa-on:  Post  Disaster  

Damage Assessment

Situa-on:  No  Disaster  

Situa-on:  Poten-al  Disaster  

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Kebutuhan ER Plan (I)

§ Logistic management (regional atau nasional): • Warehouse à safe area or close to disaster

area? •  Logistic distribution chainà akomodasi mitigsi

parameter

Trend RR Plan (II)

§ Pre-disaster Recovery Plan § Post disaster Recovery Plan

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Kebutuhan dan Tantangan Pencegahan dan Mitigasi (III)

§ P&M vs. Economic parameter dalam perencanaan tata ruang

§ Kawasan CBD vs mitigasi learning dari Kec Padang Barat

Kebutuhan dan Tantangan Preparedness Plan (IV)

§ Contingency Plan à Operation Plan § Early Warning System & Evacuation Plan § Disaster Management Organization &

supporting infrastructure (EOC and SOPs)

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Evacuation Planning

1   Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) 1.  SOPs for Near Field Tsunami 2.  SOPs for Mid/Regional Field Tsunami 3.  SOPs for Far Field (Distant) Tsunami

2   Tsunami Evacuation Planning 1.  Tsunami Risk Assessment in the context of Evacuation

Planning 2.  Evacuation Route - Planning 3.  Vertical Evacuation Shelter – Planning and Design 4.  Permanent Evacuation Shelter – Planning and Design 5.  Tsunami Signage

3   Tsunami Exercise

Evacua?on  Route  Map  

Network  Analysis  (ArcGIS)  

Informa?on  of  Disaster  Model  

Data  Road  Networks:  1.   Exis?ng  condi?on  

of  road  networks  2.   Road  capacity  

Data  of  Evacua?on  Loca?on  

Informa?on:  Land  Use  

Pa^ern  of  People  Movement  During  Disaster:  1.   O-­‐D  Matrix  2.   Travel  Time  3.   Mode  of  Evacua?on  4.   Route  of  movement  

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CHALLENGES

…as a maritime country, Indonesia should assert itself

as the World Maritime Axis..

1st  Pillar:    Rebuild  Indonesia’s  mari?me  culture    2nd  Pillar:  Maintain  and  manage  sea  resources  with  a  focus  on                                      establishing  sovereignty  over  sea-­‐based  food  products    

4th  Pillar:  Through  mari?me  diplomacy,  Indonesia  must  end  the                                                sources  of  conflict  at  sea    5th  Pillar:    As  a  country  that  is  the  bridge  between  two  oceans,                                      Indonesia  is  obligated  to  build  its  mari?me  defense                                            power    

3rd  Pillar:  Priori?ze  infrastructure  and  mari?me  connec?vity                                          development  by  building  sea  tolls  and  deep  sea  ports                                      while  also  improving  the  shipping  industry,  logis?cs  and                                        mari?me  tourism    

WAY      

FORWARD  

Sumber:  Wisnu  Widjaja  (BNPB)  

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Thank you

Harkunti P. Rahayu, Ph.D. Chair WG1 ICG Indian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System

Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Bandung Institute of Technology harkunti@sappk.itb.ac.id and harkunti@gmail.com