overview carboocean
DESCRIPTION
EU FP6 Integrated Project CARBOOCEAN ”Marine carbon sources and sinks assessment” 3rd Annual Meeting – Bremen Germany 4-7 December 2007. Overview CARBOOCEAN. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Overview CARBOOCEAN
EU FP6 Integrated Project CARBOOCEAN ”Marine carbon sources and sinks assessment”
3rd Annual Meeting – Bremen Germany 4-7 December 2007
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Anthropogenic pCO2 increase in the atmosphere
Neftel, A., H. Friedli, E. Moor, H. Lötscher, H. Oeschger, U. Siegenthaler, and B. Stauffer. 1994. Historical CO2 record from the Siple Station ice core. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A
Historical atmospheric CO2 record from ice core, Siple Station, Antarctica
1700 2000
260
340
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Anthropogenic pCO2 increase in the atmosphere
Neftel, A., H. Friedli, E. Moor, H. Lötscher, H. Oeschger, U. Siegenthaler, and B. Stauffer. 1994. Historical CO2 record from the Siple Station ice core. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A
Historical atmospheric CO2 record from ice core, Siple Station, Antarctica
1700 2000
260
340
Mauna Loa CO2 record, 50th anniversary!!!
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Previous standard IPCC emission scenarios have been to optimistic with respect to human behaviour:
Raupach et al., PNAS, 2007 (gloabl carbon project)
And the related climate projections did not yet include the positive greeenhouse gas feedbacks.
We have to get ready for the next generation of realistic scenarios and include important feedback processes in Earth system models.
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Objectives of CARBOOCEAN IPGuiding sustainable
development management
CO2
emmisionsObjective 5:Prediction, future assessment
Initial conditions
Objective 1: Short-term assessment
System dynamics Boundary conditions
Objective 3:Assessment of
Regional EuropeanContribution
Objective 2:Long term
assessment
Objective 4:Assessment of
feedbacks
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Core Theme 1: North Atlantic and Southern Ocean CO 2 air-sea exchange
Core Theme 2: Detection of decadal-centennial Atlantic and Southern Ocean carbon inventory changes
Core Theme 3:Carbon uptake and release at European regional scales
Core Theme 4: Biogeochemical feedback on the oceanic carbon sinks
Core Theme 5: Future scenarios for marine carbon sources and sinks
Over-arching activity: Prediction
Over-arching activity: Long-term assessment
Over-arching activity: Short-term assessment
Final W
orkshop
Kick-O
ff Meeting
MonthPhase:
0 19 37 55 60Understanding Nowcast and
Prediction Synopsis and Sustainment
Description
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Indications for a decrease in sink strength: North Atlantic
Hovmüller plots of pCO2 (μatm) (defined as the atmosphere minus sea surface):
Schuster & Watson, JGR, 2007
1990s high
2000s lower
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Evolution of oceanic and atmospheric CO2 in the subpolar gyre:
From Corbiere et al (2007) , Tellus + new data 2004-2006
Indications for a decrease in sink strength: North Atlantic
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Air-sea CO2 flux changes also in Southern Ocean!
obs. atm. CO2 + ocean impulse response uptake
constant 1967 forcingdaily NCEP forcing
From:LeQuéré et al., 2007, Science, Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink due to recent climate change
Sink decrease inferred from observations and modelling !
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Potential alterations in biological cycling of carbon with circulation and pCO2 change:
350 μatm (green) 700 μatm (grey) 1050 μatm (red)Apparent decrease of dis-solved inorganic C with pCO2
Apparent increase of organically bound C with pCO2
Apparent increase of nutrient utilisiation efficiency with pCO2
Mesocosm facilities at Espegrend, Bergen
Mesocosm experiments at differing atmospheric pCO2:”Captering natural ecosystem communities in plastic bags and watching their behavior for changes in forcing under controlled conditions”
Riebesell et al., nature, 2007
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“Nowcast” and prediction:
Are current trends temporary?
How to sustain observations?
Are necessary processes well enough represented?
How trustworthy are prognostic models?
What guardrails can we give to policy makers and society in general?
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Reducing uncertainties in marine uptakeof anthropogenic CO2:
Can we in fact reduce these uncertainties?
Or are we only “more certain about the uncertainties”?
EGU General Assembly Vienna, Austria, March 2008:Session BG3.1 (co-listed under Biogeosciences, Ocean Sciences, and Climate):
“Reducing uncertainties in the quantification of the oceanic sink for anthropogenic carbon (CARBOOCEAN)”(Conveners: C. Heinze, D. Bakker, D. Wallace)
What service can we now and in near future give to society? Time is pressing!
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OUTREACH & EDUCATION:
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IPCC AR4: At least 4 lead authors and 1 review editor. 1 coord. Lead author for special report on C storage.
ASSESSMENT:OUTREACH & EDUCATION:
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IPCC AR4: At least 4 lead authors and 1 review editor. 1 coord. Lead author for special report on C storage.
ASSESSMENT:OUTREACH & EDUCATION:
DISSEMINATION (horizontal, vertical):
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IPCC AR4: At least 4 lead authors and 1 review editor. 1 coord. Lead author for special report on C storage.
ASSESSMENT:OUTREACH & EDUCATION:
DISSEMINATION (horizontal, vertical):
DATA SYNTHESIS:
2007 InfoWorld 100 Award to Alfred Wegener Institute & Center for Marine Environmental Sciences MARUM
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