overview · 575,0 485,3 443,2 413,9 396,1 400,0 371,8 359,1 330,8 560,7 535,3 484,0 460,1 439,1...
TRANSCRIPT
Overview
• What is wrong with the 2012/13 crime sta5s5cs?
• What do the 2012/13 crime sta5s5cs tell us? • What can be done to be;er use the crime sta5s5cs for reducing crime?
What is wrong with the 2012/13 sta5s5cs?
Crime sta5s5cs can be presented in two ways:
1. Totals (16 259 murders) • Provides the total incidents recorded • Is a be;er measure for assessing changes in crimes against non-‐human targets
2. Ra5os (31.1 murders per 100 000 people) • Crimes per 100 000 of the popula5on • Provides a be;er risk assessment across loca5ons & 5me frames
• Be;er for crimes affec5ng individuals
SA Murder Cases Distribution
SA Murder Ratios Distribution
SAPS Crime Ra5os Changes 2012/13
• The crime totals are not in dispute. • The changes in crime ra5os are incorrect • 2011/12 crime ra5os calculated on popula5on es5mates from 2001 census – 50,6 million
• Stats SA released new popula5on es5mates from 2011 census – 52,3 million
• SAPS should then have recalculated 2011/12 crime ra5os on new data
SAPS Crime Ra5os – What happened?
• SAPS used correct updated popula5on es5mates to calculate 2012/13 crime ra5os.
• However, did not update 2011/12 crime ra5os using corrected Stats SA data.
• Therefore there is a sta5s5cal and factual error in the changes in crime ra5os presented to the public
How does this influence the officials sta5s5cs?
Crime trends: Raw figures, SAPS rates and Corrected rates
4,2 2,9
10,1
-‐3,5 -‐4,8
4,6
1,1
6,8
-‐1,2
4,2 5,0
0,6 -‐0,4
6,5
-‐6,6
-‐7,9
1,2
-‐2,2
3,3
-‐4,4
0,8 1,6
2,6 1,5
8,7
-‐4,8
-‐6,1
3,3
-‐0,3
5,3
-‐2,5
2,8 3,7
-10,0
-8,0
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0 Raw Figures % SAPS Rates % Real Rates %
Extent of the error at provincial level
9,7% 8,4%
7,1% 7,0%
4,5%
-‐5,9%
-‐4,0% -‐3,0%
-‐0,8%
-8,0%
-6,0%
-4,0%
-2,0%
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
12,0%
Western Cape Mpumalanga North West Gauteng Northern Cape KwaZulu-Natal Eastern Cape Limpopo Free State
Benefit (+)/Disadvantage (-‐)
2012/13 Western Cape Crime trends SAPS vs Corrected
Category SAPS Ra5os Correct Ra5os Murder +0,5% +10,1% Sexual offences -‐14,2% -‐5,9% Attempted murder +26,4% +38,3% Assault GBH -‐11,1% -‐2,7% Common assault -‐7,7% +1,1% Aggravated Robbery +8,7% +19,1% Common robbery +0,1% +9,6% Burglary residential -‐0,4% +9,1% Theft of motor-vehicle -‐4,9% +4,2% Public street robbery +7,2% +17,4% TRIO crimes +13,3% +24,2%
2012/13 Eastern Cape Crime trends SAPS vs Corrected
Category SAPS Ra5os Correct Ra5os Murder +5,8% +1,6% Sexual offences +7,3% +3,0% Attempted murder +5,9% +1,5% Assault GBH -‐1,7% -‐5,7% Common assault -‐3,3% -‐7,1% Aggravated Robbery -‐2,4% -‐6,3% Common robbery -‐3,2% -‐7,1% Burglary residential -‐0,3% -‐4,3% Theft of motor-vehicle -‐1,4% -‐5,2% Public street robbery -‐3,2% -‐7,0% TRIO crimes -‐0,7% -‐4,6%
What should be done?
• The crime ra5o changes should be corrected. • Minister of Police should establish an inquiry to inves5gate why this error happened?
• The inquiry should include independent sta5s5cians
• Steps taken to ensure that this does not happen again & publicly communicated.
What do the latest crime sta5s5cs tell us?
South African Crime Trend 1994/5 to 2012/13
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
Violent interpersonal crime Robbery Property crime Other
SA Total Crime Ra5o Trend 2003/04 to 2012/13
5686 5246
4697 4528 4315 4335 4330 4175 4144 4162
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Crime totals in millions 2,638 2,467 2,237 2,186 2,111 2,148 2,175 2,125 2,137 2,176
Crime categories that increased
CATEGORY Number No. Change % Change Ra5o % Murder 16 259 650 4,2% 2,6% Total Sexual Crimes 66 387 1 873 2,9% 1,5% Attempted murder 16 363 1 504 10,1% 8,7% Common robbery 53 540 560 1,1% -‐0,3% Robbery with aggravating circumstances 105 888 4 685 4,6% 3,2% Burglary at non-residential premises 73 630 3 589 5,1% 3,7% Burglary at residential premises 262 113 16 582 6,8% 5,3% Theft out of or from motor vehicle 139 658 9 183 7,0% 5,6% Commercial crime 91 569 3 519 4,0% 2,6% Carjacking 9 990 515 5,4% 4,0% Truck hijacking 943 122 14,9% 13,3% Robbery at residential premises 17 950 1 184 7,1% 5,6% Robbery at non-residential premises 16 377 426 2,7% 1,3% Public violence 1 783 631 54,8% 52,7% Kidnapping 4 333 459 11,8% 10,4%
Crime categories that decreased CATEGORY Number No. Change % Change Ra5o %
Assault GBH 185 893 -‐6 758 -‐3,50% -‐4,80%
Common assault 172 909 -‐8 761 -‐4,80% -‐6,10%
Arson 6 064 -‐354 -‐5,50% -‐6,80%
Malicious damage to property 121 113 -‐1 108 -‐0,90% -‐2,20%
Theft of mv & motorcycle 58 370 -‐727 -‐1,20% -‐2,50%
Stock-theft 29 894 -‐1 055 -‐3,40% -‐4,70%
All theft 362 816 -‐14 616 -‐3,90% -‐5,20%
Shoplifting 71 309 -‐539 -‐0,80% -‐2,10%
Culpable homicide 11 395 -‐393 -‐3,30% -‐4,60%
Crimen injuria 29 040 -‐2 818 -‐8,80% -‐10,10%
Neglect and ill-treatment of children 2 758 -‐191 -‐6,50% -‐7,70%
66,9 67,9 62,8
59,9 59,8 52,5 49,8 47,8 47,4
42,7 40,0 38,9 39,8 37,8 36,6 33,5
31,3 30,3 31,1
69,4 68,1 70,8 68,3 70,1 65,5 64,4
70,2 78,9
64,8
52,1 43,1 41,7 38,4 36,9 34,7
30,4 28,8 31,3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Murder Ac Murder
Total number of people murdered: -‐ 2009/10: 16 834 -‐ 2010/11: 15 940 -‐ 2011/12: 15 609 -‐ 2012/13: 16 259 (+650 cases)
Murder & acempted murder trends (Rates per 100 000)
SA & Provincial Murder rates 2012/13
(per 100,000 population)
50,8
43,7
37,2 35,7 35,1 31,1
24,7 24,0
17,1 12,9
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
Murder: Relationships & motives
Perpetrators known to victims
Perpetrators as relatives, friends, etc
Relatives as perpetrators
80% 60% 20%
Relationships
Motives/Conditions
Social behaviour (E.g. domestic conflict such as arguments, jealousy, alcohol & drug abuse, etc)
Criminal behaviour (E.g. resulting from other crime such as robbery, etc)
Group behaviour (E.g. gang & taxi violence, vigilantism, etc)
Other (E.g. retaliation, self-defence, police actions, etc)
65% 16% 7% 12%
Ac murder -‐ 60% Rape -‐ 75% Assault -‐ 90%
605,7 575,0
485,3 443,2
413,9 396,1 400,0 371,8 359,1 330,8
560,7 535,3
484,0 460,1
439,1 418,5 416,2 397,3 380,8 355,6
0,0
100,0
200,0
300,0
400,0
500,0
600,0
700,0
03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13
Assault Common Assault GBH
Assault GBH – 185 183 (decrease by 12 709 cases) Assault common – 172 909 (decrease by 8 761)
Assault GBH & Assault Common (Rate per 100 000)
Aggravated robbery (Rate per 100 000)
220 196
164 177
220 230
260 262
279 288 270
251
262
242 245
227
199 196
203
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
9990
17950
16377
7 145 943
60262
Car hijacking
House robbery
Bus robbery
Bank robbery
CIT
Truck hijacking
Street robbery
Total Cases 2012/13 105 888
5498
3677
3320
4387
6689
9862
13920
14534 14667
15951
16377
14691 13793
12434
12825 13599 14201 14915
13902
10627
9475
9990 9063
9351 9391
10173
12761
14481
18438 18786
16889 16766 17950
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Business robberies Car hijackings House robberies
Trio crime trends
Bank & Cash-‐In-‐Transit robberies
561
463
493
450
469
356
127
54 58 59
129 144
102
93 39 35 7
359
236 223 226
196
238
374
192 220
383
467
395 386 358
291
201
145
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Bank robbery CIT
Crime types Red = increase Blue = decrease
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
House robbery Business robbery Vehicle hijacking --------------------------------- Vehicle theft Business burglary House burglary
4 – 21% 19 – 28% 19 – 31% -------------------------- 8 – 17% 5 – 9% 4 – 12%
3 – 7% 2 – 34% 17 – 22% ------------------------- 3 – 22% 2 – 13% 6 - 3%
13 – 47%
2 – 25%
8 – 22%
--------------------------
2 – 9%
2 – 19%
2 – 12%
Insurance industry (Insurance claims - various companies)
South African Insurance Crime Bureau (SAICB)
Shopping centres (Including retailers and jewellers)
Crime type 2011/12 2012/13 %
Armed Robberies (Incidents)
274 438 + 60%
Armed Robberies (Financial loss)
R20,545,924m R38,713,795m + 88%
Burglaries (Incidents)
144 125 -‐ 13%
Burglary (Financial loss)
R3,865, 961m R4,688,976m +21%
Consumer Goods Risk Ini0a0ve (CGRI)
How to becer use the sta5s5cs for reducing crime?
• Establish a na5onal crime sta5s5cs commi;ee consis5ng of SAPS, other govt depts & independent experts.
• Commi;ee should explore how to make crime sta5s5cs be;er available to suite the needs of various role-‐players.
• Encourage more research into crime using SAPS data.
• Release local level crime sta5s5cs monthly.