outlook - amazon web services · 2017. 12. 6. · $107,250 over 10 years / pg 07 rental price...
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1 POP 2 INF 3 EMP
BERRINBA WETLANDS
AQUATIC FITNESS CENTRESHOPPING CENTRE
THERE IS A VARIETY OF MAJOR RETAIL HUBS AND EMPLOYMENT SURROUNDING BERRINBA
LOCAL PARKLAND AND COMMUNITY FACILITIES CREATE A FAMILY FRIENDLY ENVIRONMENT
BERRINBA OFFERS PROXIMITY TO A RANGE OF RECREATIONAL FACILITIES
Berrinba accommodates all three of the Urbis economics and research fundamentals that make a sustainable suburb – Population, Infrastructure and Employment.
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STRATEGIC LOCATION Surrounded by retail and lifestyle amenity, along with major infrastructure / Pg 02
POPULATION GROWTHIt is projected the Logan LGA will be home to 452,184 residents by 2031, a 45 per cent increase / Pg 04
INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTBerrinba is expected to benefit from more than $414.3 million in infrastructure investment / Pg 05
SALE PRICE GROWTH The Berrinba Catchment has recorded an increase in median sale price of $107,250 over 10 years / Pg 07
RENTAL PRICE GROWTH The Logan LGA weekly rental price for 3-bedroom houses increased by 5.2 per cent over 12 months / Pg 07
AUGUST 2015
A CONTEXT ON BUSINESS, CULTURE, LIFESTYLE AND RESIDENTIAL
OUTLOOK BERRINBA
Berrinba offers residents local access to education, employment, recreation and retail amenity.
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Berrinba offers an enviable lifestyle supported by retail and leisure along with diversified employment generators. The suburb is linked to major arterial roads providing access to significant local and major employment nodes. Key retail and employment precincts surrounding Berrinba include Browns Plains and Logan Central. These have been
identified in the South East Regional Plan Urban Footprint as key areas in Logan that present potential infill and redevelopment opportunities to accommodate urban growth. Located in Browns Plains, the Grand Plaza Shopping Centre offers more than 45,000sqm of retail space, encompassing Target, Kmart, Coles, Woolworths, Big W and Aldi as
major tenants with 142 specialty stores and a cinema. Berrinba Wetlands and Logan Metro Sports Centre provide modern recreation facilities along with local parks. The area is well serviced by education infrastructure including Burrows Primary, Groves Christian College, Berrinba East State School and Browns Plains State High School.
Berrinba creates a platform for growth by blending affordability and local employment with an abundance of retail, education and lifestyle amenity.
2 URBIS BERRINBA OUTLOOK© URBIS.COM.AU
LOCATION & ACCESSIBILITYBerrinba
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1318
GRAND PLAZA SHOPPING CENTRE
Target Kmart Coles Big W
Woolworths 142 Specialty Stores
Cinema
15M
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ubs8 St. Bernardine’s Catholic
Primary School
9 Burrowes Primary School
10 Groves Christian College, Upper Primary
11 Berrinba East State School
12 Groves Christian College
13 Browns Plains State High School20 Logan Metro Sports Centre
21 Berrinba Wetlands
22 Grosvenor Park
23 Marsden Park
16 Southwest 1 Enterprise Park
17 Crestmead Industrial Estate
18 Browns Plains Industrial Estate
19 Parkinson Industrial EstateEduc
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1 Grand Plaza Shopping Centre
2 McCarthy Fair Shopping Centre
3 Village Square Shopping Centre
4 Logan Central Plaza
5 Logan Central Retail Precinct
6 Greenbank RSL
7 BP Service Station
Train Station
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MT LINDESAY HWY
14 Woodridge Train Station
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© URBIS.COM.AUURBIS BERRINBA OUTLOOK 3
LOGAN LGA ESTIMATED POPULATION AND PROJECTIONS
WHO LIVES IN THE BERRINBA CATCHMENT?
BERRINBA CATCHMENT IS MADE UP OF:
FAMILY COMPOSITION
DWEILLING TENURE
DWEILLING STRUCTURE
249,161
311,038
452,184
0 50,000
100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000
2004
20
05
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2010
20
11
2012
20
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2014
20
15
2016
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2018
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2020
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2022
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2024
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2026
2027
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28
2029
20
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2031
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POPU
LATI
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PERIOD (YEAR)
GEN Y (20-34 YEARS)
COUPLES WITH
CHILDREN
OWNED
23%
50%
63%
BABY BOOMERS
(45-64 YEARS)22%
COUPLES WITHOUT CHILDREN
RENTED
27%
37%
GEN X (35-44 YEARS)
14%GEN Y
COUPLES WITH CHILDREN
OWNED
93% 4%3%
APARTMENT SEPERATE HOUSE
SEMI-DETACHED TOWNHOUSE
Prepared by Urbis, Source: ABS Estimated Residential Population 2012, OESR Population Projections 2013
Prepared by Urbis, Source: ABS
POPULATION GROWTH AND DEMOGRAPHICS Continued infrastructure investment and increasing employment are expected to contribute to sustained long-term population growth within the Logan LGA and Berrinba Catchment, comprising the suburbs of Berrinba, Regents Park, Browns Plains, Larapinta, Parkinson, Drewvale, Hillcrest, Heritage Park, Crestmead, Marsden, Logan Central and Kingston. The Logan LGA is predicted to be one of the fastest growing regions in Queensland between 2006 and 2021. With an average annual growth rate of 2.2 per cent, it is projected the Logan LGA will increase to 365,443 residents by 2021 and 452,184 residents by 2031. This is an average increase of approximately 8,300 new residents per annum, or a total increase of 45 per cent. Increasing population is expected to support housing demand and drive increasing sale price and rental growth in and around the Berrinba Catchment.
Population for the Logan LGA is projected to increase by 45 per cent between now and 2031
The demographic make-up of the Berrinba Catchment demonstrates a broad range of resident characteristics with the largest portion of residents from Generation Y (aged 20-34 years) at 23 per cent, this is followed closely by Baby Boomers (45-64 years) at 22 per cent and Generation X (35-44 years) making up 14 per cent of the total demographic. This age demographic, paired with family composition representing 50 per cent couples with children, indicates there is a large proportion of young families residing in the Berrinba Catchment.
At the 2011 Census the Berrinba Catchment was made up of 93 per cent separate houses and four per cent townhouses. Although the number of townhouses has likely increased over recent years, the catchment is still predominately separate housing which indicates a preference for detached dwellings. The catchment also is represented by 63 per cent owner-occupiers and 37 per cent renters. This aligns with young families seeking to buy their first home or investors looking to expand their portfolio in an affordable area surrounded by employment and lifestyle amenity.
4 URBIS BERRINBA OUTLOOK© URBIS.COM.AU
POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHICS
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (2011 - 2031)
MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS
*Berrinba Catchment includes the suburbs of Berrinba, Browns Plains, Logan Central, Marsden, Larapinta, Parkinson and Drewvale. Prepared by Urbis, Source: NIEIR
Prepared by Urbis, Source: Cordells and various websites
INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTInfrastructure investment in the Logan LGA surrounding Berrinba has been a key driver in the growth of commercial and private investment over recent years. Major infrastructure projects valued at more than $414.3 million are under construction, planned or recently completed across the Logan LGA.
Berrinba and the surrounding LGA is set to benefit from more than $414.3 million
in infrastructure investment
The most significant of these projects is the $200 million Logan Central Master Plan. This will be a purpose-built precinct comprising commercial buildings, schools, retail, health and social services, along with retirement, aged care and residential buildings of five to eight storeys around a central town square. Another significant project set to benefit the region is the recently completed expansion and refurbishment of the Logan Hospital taking it from a 48-bed community hospital to a 316-bed hospital. This expansion aims to cater to the growing resident population and generate significant employment in the area.
Included in the Berrinba Catchment is Browns Plains which has been identified in the South East Queensland Regional Plan as an activity centre. The plan for activity centres involves establishing government and administration services and office-based business designed precincts to provide diverse employment opportunities for local residents. This substantial future investment is likely to drive employment growth along with housing demand and property prices within the Berrinba Catchment.
EMPLOYMENTThe Logan LGA offers a diverse range of occupations with the top employment sectors by 2031 predicted to be Retail (24.1 per cent), Health & Community (14.1 per cent) and Education (10.9 per cent). The Logan LGA is projected to have almost 23,000 additional jobs by 2031.
The Berrinba Catchment is projected to reach 27,355 local jobs by 2031. The major employment hubs in this area include Browns Plains, projected to increase annually by 1.5 per cent to 12,297 jobs and Logan Central, projected to increase annually by 4.9 per cent to more than 5,000 jobs. Berrinba is well-serviced by major arterial roads including Logan Motorway, Mount Lindsay Highway and Gateway Motorway providing direct access to surrounding major employment nodes including the Brisbane CBD, Australia Trade Coast and Yatala Enterprise Area. Further afield, the Bromelton Park industrial park is forecast to create 15,000 jobs over 20 years.
$11.2M SERVICES
$30M RETAIL
$152.2M HEALTH
$15.4M EDUCATION
$5.5MTRANSPORT
$200MMIXED USE
LOGAN LGA
2011 CURRENT / 65,721 2031 FORECAST / 88,719 TOTAL NEW JOBS / 22,998GROWTH PER ANNUM / 1.5%
BERRINBA CATCHMENT*
2011 CURRENT / 20,136 2031 FORECAST / 27,355 TOTAL NEW JOBS / 7,219 GROWTH PER ANNUM / 1.5%
© URBIS.COM.AUURBIS BERRINBA OUTLOOK 5
INFRASTRUCTURE & EMPLOYMENT
BERRINBA HOUSE SALES CYCLEJune 2007 – June 2015
MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT - March 2015 Quarter
AVERAGE ANNUAL WEEKLY RENTAL GROWTH RATE
Prepared by Urbis, Source: Residential Tenancies Authority (RTA) Prepared by Urbis, Source: CoreLogic RP Data
$414,750
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
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BERRINBA NUMBER OF HOUSE SALES
BERRINBA MEDIAN HOUSE SALE PRICE
BERRINBA HOUSING MARKET ANALYSISRecording few house sales prior to 2007, the suburb of Berrinba is a relatively new suburb located in the Logan LGA. The median sale price for houses in Berrinba registered $414,750 for the half-year period ending June 2015. There has been an average of only 25 house sales each half-year period since the beginning of 2008 in Berrinba. As interest in Berrinba continues to increase and land supply becomes limited the median house sale price is expected to rise. The suburb has recorded an average annual growth rate of 4.5 per cent over the past two years to June 2015.
Berrinba has historically recorded consistent long-term median house price growth, with the median sale price increasing annually by 2.7 per cent over the last eight years to June 2015. Similar to the greater Brisbane property market at the time, Berrinba registered its most significant price growth in between 2007 and 2009. Increases in house prices and the number of transactions in the 2008 and 2009 periods are linked to the settlement of new projects in the area and initial interest in the new suburb. Steady sale price growth generally highlights a demand for new housing product from both owner-occupiers and investors. The more modern dwellings on offer within a newer suburb are appealing along with proximity to employment and lifestyle needs, along with key amenity.
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSISAs one of Queensland’s fastest growing regions, housing demand in the Logan LGA is driven by continued increases in population, employment and infrastructure investment. Median weekly rents being achieved for three and four-bedroom houses across the Berrinba Catchment are on par with the wider Logan area. Limited supply of new housing product, particularly four-bedroom houses, available for rent in the catchment indicates demand for new housing product. The current residential vacancy rate for the Logan LGA is 2.1 per cent at March 2015, one of the lowest levels across South East Queensland LGA’s.
The limited supply of new product is likely to drive rental price increases as new estates are settled and become available for rent. Looking forward, potential capital growth offered by infrastructure investment and population growth is likely to drive investment opportunity offered within the Berrinba Catchment.
Three-bedroom houses in the Logan LGA have shown consistent long-term rental price growth with an average annual increase of 2.0 per cent over the past five years to March 2015. They also recorded significant growth in the past 12 months with a rental price increase of 5.2 per cent.Rental prices in the Berrinba Catchment (comprising the suburbs of Berrinba, Browns Plains, Brownsleigh, Forestdale, Heritage Park and Regents Park) have displayed similar trends to the Logan LGA showing consistent long-term growth and an average annual price increase of 2.2 per cent over the past two years.
BERRINBA CATCHMENT
$395
$400LOGAN LGA
4
HOUSE
BERRINBA CATCHMENT
$345
$347LOGAN LGAHOUSE
3
GROWTH RATE
5.2% 2.0%
1 YEAR ANNUAL GROWTH
RATE
5 YEAR ANNUAL GROWTH
RATE
HOUSE
3
6 URBIS BERRINBA OUTLOOK© URBIS.COM.AU
RENTAL & RESIDENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
LOGAN LGA HOUSE SALES CYCLEJune 2005 - June 2015
LOGAN LGA LAND SALES CYCLEJune 2005 - June 2015
Prepared by Urbis, Source: CoreLogic RP DataPrepared by Urbis, Source: CoreLogic RP Data
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
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HALF-YEAR PERIOD
LOGAN LGA NUMBER OF HOUSE SALES
LOGAN LGA MEDIAN HOUSE SALE PRICE
$370,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
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JUN
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JUN
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MED
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HALF-YEAR PERIOD
$182,000 LOGAN LGA NUMBER OF LAND SALES
LOGAN LGA MEDIAN LAND SALE PRICE
LOGAN LGA HOUSING MARKET ANALYSISSales volumes for houses in the Logan LGA peaked during the first-half of 2009 with around 2,600 transactions. This was followed by a period of decline due to effects from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). By mid-2012 confidence was returning to the market, and sales volumes began to increase. Since 2012 there has been an average of 1,728 houses sold across the Logan LGA each six month period through to June 2015.
The median sale price for houses within the Logan LGA has risen 7.2 per cent over the last 12 months to
records it highest level in ten years.
The Logan LGA has historically recorded consistent long-term median house price growth, increasing by 4.1 per cent per annum over the ten years to June 2015. Based on more than 2,200 house sales, the half-year ending June 2015 recorded a median price of $370,000 which is an increase of 7.2 per cent from the previous year and is a peak median price for the Logan LGA. It is expected that the median price within the Logan LGA will continue to increase as confidence in the area grows, along with population and employment.
LOGAN LGA LAND MARKET ANALYSISLand sales volumes in the Logan LGA have experienced peak selling periods as new estates have been released. The Logan LGA has experienced its most significant land sales volume over the last two years. Settled sales transactions have reached une 2013 and June 2015, averaging 611 transactions each half-year period.
The Logan LGA is recording its highest level of land sales of the last ten years. A significant increase of 33 per cent per annum has been recorded over the past
two years.
The Logan LGA has demonstrated significant long-term price growth, recording an increase in median land price of 13.8 per cent for the ten years to June 2015. The median land price across the Logan LGA reached a ten-year peak during the six months ending December 2010 when it recorded $214,900. Since then the median land price in the Logan LGA has averaged $190,181 each half-year period to June 2015. At the end of June 2015 the median land sale price was recorded at $182,000, a 2.0 per cent increase from 12 months prior. With land supply now decreasing, Hillcrest is well-positioned for growth, with demand expected to outstrip supply over the short to medium-term.
© URBIS.COM.AUURBIS BERRINBA OUTLOOK 7
Brisbane Level 7, 123 Albert St Brisbane QLD 4000
07 3007 3800
This publication is prepared on the instruction of LH Property Partners Pty Ltd and is not suitable for use other than by the party to whom it is addressed. As the publication involves projections and assumptions it can be affected by a number of unforeseen variables. The forecasts and assumptions are a prediction and whilst Urbis has made every effort to ensure that the forecasts and assumptions are based on reasonable information, they may be affected by assumptions that do not necessarily eventuate or by know, or unknown, risks and
uncertainties. It should be noted that past performance is not necessarily a reliable indication of future performance. The information in the publication does not represent financial advice and should not be regarded as such. It has been prepared without taking into account your financial situation or investment objectives. You should consider the appropriateness of the information in regards to your current financial situation or needs. Urbis accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. The information is subject to change without notice and Urbis is under no obligation to update the information or correct any assumptions which may change over time. This study has been prepared for the sole
use of LH Property Partners Pty Ltd and is not to be relied upon by any third party without specific approval from Urbis. This publication is subject to copyright. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of it may, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrievals system or
transmitted without prior written permission. Enquires should be addressed to the publishers. / EMR0029