outline
DESCRIPTION
- PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Prediction of coastal flooding at residence zones and transportation infrastructure at the east bank of Delaware Bay in sea‐level rise conditions
Hansong Tang1, Steven I-Jy Chien2, Marouane Temimi1 Cheryl Ann Blain3, Qu Ke1, Liuhui Zhao2, Simon Kraatz1
1 NOAA CREST/Dept. Civil Eng., CCNY 2 Dept. of Civil and Environ. Eng., NJIT 3 Oceanography Div., Naval Research Lab
8th Annual NOAA‐CREST Symposium, CCNY, June 6, 2013 Sponsored by UTRC/CREST
Outline
1. Motivation, challenge, and approaches
2. Region of study and data collection
3. Modeling flooded population and transportation system: Methodology
4. Results and analysis
5. Concluding remarks
1. Motivation, challenge, and approaches
Higher potential for coastal flooding, especially at NY/NJ coastlines
Sea level rise (in 100 yrs, 0.2 – 0.6 m, even 0.8 – 2 m), strong hurricanes become more frequent residence area, transportation system, etc. at risk Objective Propose a modeling approach for coastal flooding, especially local flooding Case study at Cape May and Cumberland, NJ (one of the country's oldest vacation resorts, at most a few meters above sea level, frequently flooded)
Motivation and Objective
1. Motivation, challenge, and approach
Challenges flooding modeling with accuracy and detail (traffic way, bridge, etc.) –- require advanced approach and intensive computing besides coastal water, land runoff also contribute to flooding -- coupling is need population data collection -- population distribution, changes with time
Approaches high resolution approach coupling of hydrodynamics and hydrology population/flooding overlay, a model for future population
Challenge and Approach
Region of Study
West side of Delaware BayAve depth 7 – 30 m
2. Region of study and data collection
Roads, Railroads, and Bridges
Population 2010 in Cape May and Cumberland Counties (US Census Bureau 2013)
2. Region of study and data collection
Sea Level Rise, Storm, Bathymetry, and Cases of Study
Sea level rise: IPCC
Observation for storm: nor’easter
Bathymetry and topography: NGDC, LIDAR, and USGS DEM
Cases of study:
ScenariosFrequency, projected sea-level rise
(NAVD88)
current, 0 m 10 yr, 0.09 m 50 yr, 0.42 m
Storm
returning
period, peak
elevation value
no-storm, 0 m 0 1 2
10-yr, 1.63m 3 4 5
50-yr, 1.79m 6 7 8
3. Modeling flooded population and transportation system: Methodology
Hydrodynamics Model
Shallow water model
FVCOM
External mode
Internal mode
Mesh and model setup (FVCOM 3000 elements, SWM 40,000 elements)
3. Modeling flooded population and transportation system: Methodology
Hydrodynamics Model Calibration
Hydrodynamic model calibration. Line – modeling, circle – measurement. a) and b) Current velocity measured at Brown Shoal Light. c) Surface elevation at Ship John Shoal
3. Modeling flooded population and transportation system: Methodology
Hydrology Model and Flooding Determination
]-
[
1
maxdd
falt
p
minpp ff
Hydrologic model of runoff flooding (fp --flood potential, -- elevation, d – distance to water)
Flooding determination
F=0, dry. F>, = 1 flooded
.,0,3
,,0,2
,,0,1
,,0,0
min
min
min
min
pp
pp
pp
pp
ffD
ffD
ffD
ffD
F
alt
4. Results and analysis
Prediction of Population
Projected population in municipals using a model that considers future trends on mortality, fertility, migration, etc.
Municipalities 2010 2020 2060
Avalon borough 1,334 1,352 1,408
Cape May city 3,607 3,657 3,807
Cape May Point borough 291 295 307
Dennis township 6,467 6,556 6,826
Lower township 22,866 23,180 24,135
Middle township 18,911 19,171 19,960
North Wildwood city 4,041 4,096 4,265
Ocean City city 11,701 11,862 12,350
Sea Isle City city 2,114 2,143 2,231
Stone Harbor borough 866 878 914
Upper township 12,373 12,543 13,059
West Cape May borough 1,024 1,038 1,081
West Wildwood borough 603 611 636
Wildwood city 5,325 5,398 5,620
Wildwood Crest borough 3,270 3,315 3,451
Woodbine borough 2,472 2,506 2,609
Cape May County Total 97,265 98,600 102,661
Bridgeton city 25,349 26,690 32,248
Commercial township 5,178 5,452 6,587
Deerfield township 3,119 3,284 3,968
Downe township 1,585 1,669 2,016
Fairfield township 6,295 6,628 8,008
Greenwich township 804 847 1,023
Hopewell township 4,571 4,813 5,815
Lawrence township 3,290 3,464 4,185
Maurice River township 7,976 8,398 10,147
Millville city 28,400 29,903 36,130
Shiloh borough 516 543 656
Stow Creek township 1,431 1,507 1,820
Upper Deerfield township 7,660 8,065 9,745
Vineland city 60,724 63,937 77,251
Cumberland County Total 156,898 165,200 199,600
4. Results and analysis
Prediction of Flooding
a) Hydrodynamic b) Hydrology c) Hydrodynamics/Hydrology
Sea Level Rise (years)
FloodingArea(km2)
0 20 40 60
0
20
40
60
80
100non_storm10 year_storm50 year_storm
Time (hours)
FloodingArea(km2)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
0
20
40
60
80
100
50year_storm_non SLR50year_storm_10 year SLR50 year_storm_50 yearSLR
a) Zoom in flooding b) Flood area vs time c) Flood area vs sea level
4. Results and analysis
Various Flooded Zones
Prediction of various flooded zones
4. Results and analysis
Distribution of Flooded Population
Prediction of various flooded zones
4. Results and analysis
Numbers of Affected Population
MunicipalsScenarios
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Cape May Point Borough 254 187 253 255 284 257 259 293
Dennis Township 0 0 116 171 718 193 241 756
Lower Township 596 106 1,246 1,702 5,704 1,637 1,994 6,928
Middle Township 193 122 1,092 1,208 3,118 1,254 1,378 3,571
West Cape May Borough 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Cape May County Total 1,043 415 2,707 3,336 9,824 3,341 3,872 11,558
Commercial Township 109 281 326 354 481 346 386 522
Downe Township 352 418 367 404 533 403 438 586
Fairfield Township 6 9 15 19 37 23 25 81
Greenwich Township 6 7 21 23 343 147 241 363
Hopewell Township 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11
Lawrence Township 37 55 59 66 86 66 73 89
Maurice River Township 24 67 337 377 557 371 412 624
Stow Creek Township 0 0 29 34 48 34 40 51
Cumberland County Total 534 837 1,154 1,277 2,085 1,390 1,615 2,327
4. Results and analysis
Distribution of Flooded Transportation Facilities
4. Results and analysis
Flooded Transportation System
Affected bridges
Affected length (centerline miles) of roadways
Affected length (miles) of railroads
“–” represents a bridge is not located in a flooded area under that scenario “x” represents a bridge is possibly flooded because it is located in a flooded area “f” represents a bridge located in a flooded area will be flooded “n” represents a bridge located in a flooded area will not be flooded
A multi-disciplinary approach is proposed to predict coastal flooding and its impact on residents and transportation systems, and it is applied to study future coastal flooding at the east bank of Delaware Bay.
Sea-level rise will lead to a substantial increase in vulnerability of residents and transportation
infrastructure to storm floods.
A flood tends to affect more population in Cape May County, more transportation facilities in Cumberland County, New Jersey.
Summary
5. Concluding Remarks