our view - infrasuisseinfrasuisse.com/wp-content/...renewable-energy.pdf · include biomass,...

7
OURVIEW April 2015 THE CASE FOR NUCLEAR ENERGY AS PART OF THE RENEWABLE ENERGY MIX CORPORATES CORPORATES CORPORATES CORPORATES ASSETS ASSETS ASSETS ASSETS INVESTMENTS INVESTMENTS INVESTMENTS INVESTMENTS FAMILY OFFICES FAMILY OFFICES FAMILY OFFICES FAMILY OFFICES by Dr. Angelina Parfenova, Infrasuisse Emerging Nuclear Technologies Renewables are energy sources that are natural, sustainable and almost inexhaustible. In this report we focus on renewable energy with very low or no carbon emission. Such main modern renewable energy power sources are: solar, wind, and hydro power. Other, less prevalent, forms of renewable energy sources include biomass, biofuels, geothermal, radiant energy, wave and tidal power. Nuclear power in the right configuration can also be considered as renewable (limitless). Nuclear energy is the most efficient type of renewable energy today: land use, high energy- density, lowest use of building materials per unit of energy, low carbon emission and one of the least expensive in terms of levelized costs (average cost of power lifetime of service). Thus, nuclear is one of the most important energy-solutions in reducing carbon emissions and nuclear technologies are part of the energy portfolio of the twenty-first century. Today’s nuclear energy production is to a large degree a by-product of the Manhattan project initiated in 1942 with the purpose of breeding plutonium-239 for nuclear weapons. Simply put, today’s nuclear energy productions is based on a technology that was not meant to produce energy originally. Accidents in Chernobyl and Fukushima tragically reminded us of the weakness and limited acceptance of the current solution. However, nuclear reactor technology has been under continuous development since the 1950s. Nuclear reactor designs are categorized by "Generation" (Gen) I, II, III, and IV. Development of advanced reactor systems takes an average of about 25 years per generation. Most reactors in operation around the world are Gen II (most commonly light water reactors) and only a dozen of Gen III reactors are in operation and in construction as per 2014. Gen III are improved Gen II designs, which include higher performance, extended lifetimes, improved passive cooling and passive safety. Gen IV are reactor designs currently being researched and discussed in this report. Most of these designs, with the exception of the Russian BN-800 and BN-1200 reactors, are not expected to be commercially deployed before 2040. Latest R&D efforts on developing new Gen IV reactors focus on increasing operational safety, sustainability and eliminating dangerous waste. Due to the lack of military interest and public environmental concerns over nuclear energy in general the civil nuclear industry is presently underfinanced. In the United States nuclear R&D is mostly financed by private investors, however in China, Russia, South Korea and France by government-supported enterprises. Energy Consumption Approximately 87 % of the worldwide primary energy demand is provided by fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) and the majority of carbon emissions arise from their burning. In 2013 the world energy consumption rate was approximately 15 TW and is projected to more than double by 2050. The world total carbon emission was approximately 34,500 million metric tons as per 2012. The key parameters and dependences are shown in equation (1). E (CO2 emission total) = C (CO2 per energy unit) x P(population) x (1) x S (services per unit of energy) x x E (energy per service), where C is the key factor, which can be brought to almost zero depending on energy type (carbon neutral power), S is going to increase by delivering services to developing countries and rising their living standards (for example, food, clothing, TV, heating etc.), E is possible to keep constant due to innovations (for example, better insulated houses etc.), P is going to increase from 6.1bn to 9bn by 2050 due to constant improvement in nutrition and health care. A look at the current per capita emission shows that highly developed markets as well as emerging markets will have an obvious interest in developing effective energy solutions with 2% 7% 4% 30% 33% 24% Modern Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal Oil Gas Content 1 Emerging Nuclear Technologies 2 Energy Consumption 3 Political Environment 4 Renewable Energies Overview 5 Supporting Technologies 6 Nuclear Technologies 7 Comparison of aspects 8 Swiss Energy Strategy 9 Companies Mentioned 10 Key Sources

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Page 1: OUR VIEW - Infrasuisseinfrasuisse.com/wp-content/...Renewable-Energy.pdf · include biomass, biofuels, geothermal, radiant energy, wave and tidal power. Nuclear power in the right

OURVIEW April 2015

THE CASE FOR NUCLEAR ENERGY AS PART OF THE RENEWABLE ENERGY MIX

CORPORATESCORPORATESCORPORATESCORPORATES ASSETSASSETSASSETSASSETS INVESTMENTSINVESTMENTSINVESTMENTSINVESTMENTS FAMILY OFF ICESFAMILY OFF ICESFAMILY OFF ICESFAMILY OFF ICES

by Dr. Angelina Parfenova, Infrasuisse

Emerging Nuclear Technologies

Renewables are energy sources that are natural, sustainable and almost inexhaustible. In this report we focus on renewable energy with very low or no carbon emission. Such main modern renewable energy power sources are: solar, wind, and hydro power. Other, less prevalent, forms of renewable energy sources include biomass, biofuels, geothermal, radiant energy, wave and tidal power. Nuclear power in the right configuration can also be considered as renewable (limitless). Nuclear energy is the most efficient type of renewable energy today: land use, high energy-density, lowest use of building materials per unit of energy, low carbon emission and one of the least expensive in terms of levelized costs (average cost of power lifetime of service). Thus, nuclear is one of the most important energy-solutions in reducing carbon emissions and nuclear technologies are part of the energy portfolio of the twenty-first century. Today’s nuclear energy production is to a large degree a by-product of the Manhattan project initiated in 1942 with the purpose of breeding plutonium-239 for nuclear weapons. Simply put, today’s nuclear energy productions is based on a technology that was not meant to produce energy originally. Accidents in Chernobyl and Fukushima tragically reminded us of the weakness and limited acceptance of the current solution. However, nuclear reactor technology has been under continuous development since the 1950s. Nuclear reactor designs are categorized by "Generation" (Gen) I, II, III, and IV. Development of advanced reactor systems takes an average of about 25 years per generation. Most reactors in operation around the world are Gen II (most commonly light water reactors) and only a dozen of Gen III reactors are in operation and in construction as per 2014. Gen III are improved Gen II designs, which include higher performance, extended lifetimes, improved passive cooling and passive safety. Gen IV are reactor designs currently being researched and discussed in this report. Most of these designs, with the exception of the Russian BN-800 and BN-1200 reactors, are not expected to be commercially deployed before 2040. Latest R&D efforts on developing new Gen IV reactors focus on increasing operational safety, sustainability and eliminating dangerous waste.

Due to the lack of military interest and public environmental concerns over nuclear energy in general the civil nuclear industry is presently underfinanced. In the United States nuclear R&D is mostly financed by private investors, however in China, Russia, South Korea and France by government-supported enterprises.

Energy Consumption

Approximately 87 % of the worldwide primary energy demand is provided by fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) and the majority of carbon emissions arise from their burning.

In 2013 the world energy consumption rate was approximately 15 TW and is projected to more than double by 2050. The world total carbon emission was approximately 34,500 million metric tons as per 2012. The key parameters and dependences are shown in equation (1). E (CO2 emission total) = C (CO2 per energy unit) x P(population) x (1) x S (services per unit of energy) x x E (energy per service), where C is the key factor, which can be brought to almost zero depending on energy type (carbon neutral power), S is going to increase by delivering services to developing countries and rising their living standards (for example, food, clothing, TV, heating etc.), E is possible to keep constant due to innovations (for example, better insulated houses etc.), P is going to increase from 6.1bn to 9bn by 2050 due to constant improvement in nutrition and health care. A look at the current per capita emission shows that highly developed markets as well as emerging markets will have an obvious interest in developing effective energy solutions with

2%

7%4%

30%

33%

24%

Modern Renewables

Hydro

Nuclear

Coal

Oil

Gas

Content

1 Emerging Nuclear Technologies

2 Energy Consumption

3 Political Environment

4 Renewable Energies Overview

5 Supporting Technologies

6 Nuclear Technologies

7 Comparison of aspects

8 Swiss Energy Strategy

9 Companies Mentioned

10 Key Sources

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little CO2 emission. Behind the scene the race has already started and it will be important not only for governments, but also for investors to define their right strategy in order to leverage outcome.

Political Environment

Despite the outlined scenario, current low oil

and gas prices coupled by a limited sense of

urgency for global warming may lead to a

temporary slowdown of investments in

renewable energies at least in developed

markets. However, large emerging economies

(China, India) with growing energy demand

have stepped up their ambitions and have

become leaders in deploying low-carbon energy

technologies.

China is building the world’s largest renewable

energy system, which is aimed at solving the

country's pollution and growing power demand

problems. China’s electricity generated in

2013 was comprised of approximately 79% from

thermal- (coal, oil, gas and biomass), 17% from

hydro-, 2% from wind- and 2% from nuclear-

power according to China Electricity Council

(CEC). As China's political will is driven by an

ambition to become less exposed to fossil fuel

prices it also envisages a target for growth in

nuclear capacity, while in Europe nuclear

remains politically controversial. We

recommend therefore to watch closely

developments in China and in the United States,

in order to not miss the opportunity to replace

the current "old" nuclear energy solution with "a

green" solution.

Renewable Energies – Overview

In 2013 renewable energy and nuclear power represented 1.95 TW (13%) of energy produced globally. China, the US, Germany, Italy, Spain and India were the key contributors to the 1.95 TW. Total investments made globally in renewable energy in 2013 were USD 214.4bn, the majority of investments however was made by China (56.3), Europe (48.4), the United States (35.8) and India (6.1). Most investments were made in the wind (80.1) and solar (113.7) sectors. Hence, we expect major opportunity for investors on a global scale where the regulatory framework and the geographic locations prove favorable.

Solar

Solar energy is variable and has comparatively

low capacity factor (actually produced power

relative to the maximum it could be produced)

because of daily rotation of the earth, seasonal

changes, and cloud covers. In the last 15 years

the solar industry demonstrated rapid growth.

However, solar power remains a very small

element of the overall global power base and is

significantly more expensive on a levelized cost

basis than wind power. Solar technology would

be highly efficient on space-based platforms,

however it is a challenge regarding (i)

magnitude of investments, (ii) economic

viability and (iii) technological issues still to be

solved.

Wind

Small onshore wind farms can feed some energy

into the grid or provide electricity to isolated

off-grid locations in rural areas in developing

countries. In China, 36m people acquired access

to electricity through off-grid sources between

1998 and 2012.

The cost for wind energy has reduced as wind

turbine technology has rapidly improved. The

development of turbine blades with thinner,

lighter and more aerodynamic shapes has

resulted in both higher efficiency (also for low

wind regions) and lower noise generation.

Various techniques are being applied to make

wind farms more compact with horizontal or

vertical axis rotation turbines placed on

underutilized spaces like rooftops and over

parking lots, new technical solutions for

reducing collisions with birds and the windmills

appearance in landscapes.

China has built 16 GW of wind generation

capacity in 2013 alone. Scaling it with the

average wind power load factor for China of

21.6 % results in approximately 3.5 GW. For

comparison in the last four years China

managed to put 4.7 GW of nuclear into

operation.

Supporting Technologies

Most problems associated with solar and wind energy production are connected with energy storage and transmission.

Energy storage: fuel cell

Strong wind and high radiation lead to the over-

production of electricity that the grid cannot

absorb. The integration of such energy

surpluses produced locally creates a major

challenge for electricity networks. The power

grid can only absorb so much power as is being

consumed, otherwise it will be overloaded.

Content

1 Emerging Nuclear Technologies

2 Energy Consumption

3 Political Environment

4 Renewable Energies Overview

5 Supporting Technologies

6 Nuclear Technologies

7 Comparison of aspects

8 Swiss Energy Strategy

9 Companies Mentioned

10 Key Sources

CO2 emission per capita in metric tons

USA 16.4

Russia 12.4

Germany 9.7

China 7.1

India 1.6

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One possible solution is to use surplus of electricity for the production of high-energy gases such as hydrogen or methane by means of electrolysis of water. Thus, the electrical energy would be stored in chemical energy. The gases can be stored for later use in electrical power generation using a fuel cell. A fuel cell is a device that efficiently generates electricity from hydrogen and oxygen through converting chemical energy back to electrical. Fuel cells process relative high efficiency of 40-60%, which is 2-3 times higher than the efficiency of a combustion engine and create no CO2 emissions. It is however important to note that by every storage a part of the electricity is lost, thereby increasing the cost of energy for renewables such as solar and wind.

Smart grid

The transition towards a low-carbon society will

change both the way power is produced and the

way it is consumed. Smart grids are essentially

important to facilitate this transformation and

enable low-carbon energy technologies such as

electric vehicles and various renewable energy

sources. A smart grid is an electricity network

that uses digital and other advanced

technologies to monitor and manage the

transport of electricity from all sources to meet

the varying electricity demands of end-users.

Smart grids coordinate end-users and electricity

market stakeholders to operate all parts of the

system as efficiently as possible, minimizing

costs and environmental impacts while

maximizing system reliability and stability. The

concept of smart grid makes sense in large

scales, where cross-border aspects and

different energy sources are connected. The

"smartening" of the electricity system is an

evolutionary process and not a onetime event.

Nuclear Technologies

Despite recent accidents and public opposition,

nuclear power is back on the agenda of many

countries, primarily for the following four

reasons: it has predictable long-term

generation costs, as it is not exposed to the

volatile fossil fuels markets, in terms of

levelized costs is economically competitive

with renewables or fossil kilowatt-hour and is

carbon neutral to prevent climate changes.

The big five nuclear generation countries

account for 67% of the total nuclear generated

electricity in the world according to World

Energy Council. The number of nuclear plants

operating in the United States in 2014 was 100.

Another 100 nuclear plants are currently

planned or under the construction in Asia-

Pacific region. The countries with a steady

increase in nuclear generation are China, Russia

and Czech Republic.

The emerging economies (mainly China, Russia

and India) are expected to dominate the

expansion and development of nuclear power as

they need to use all options to meet their

rapidly growing electricity demand and secure

certain economic growth. Russian and Chinese

suppliers will soon meet the need of their

domestic markets and will be able to meet

demands of large-scale exports. Two-thirds (44)

of the nuclear plants under construction are

located in three countries: China, India and

Russia.

The average construction time of the 34 units

that started up in the world between 2003 and

2013 was 9.4 years. Thus, the construction of

nuclear plants need long-term political

stability. At least 15 countries are currently

building nuclear power plants, for example, the

United Arab Emirates (UAE) started

construction of a commercial nuclear power

plant at Barrakah in July 2012 (advanced light

water reactor APR 1400 designed by Korean

Kepco). In Russia, ten reactors are under active

construction to be in operation by 2017

totalling about 9.2 GW, about 14 further

reactors are planned to add new capacity and

to replace obsolete plants. This will increase

Russia's present nuclear power capacity by 50%

in 2020.

Light water reactor (LWR)

Most nuclear reactors in operation today are

thermal neutron reactors, where fast moving

neutrons released in the fission process are

slowed down to thermal velocity before they

can sustain the chain reaction. The light water

thermal reactors produce heat by

controlled nuclear fission, use uranium-235 as

fissile fuel and normal water as a coolant and

Capacity and share (%) in electricity generation

in 2013 GW %

USA 99 19

France 63 77

Japan 49 19

Russia 24 18

South Korea 20 30

Germany 12 18

China 18 2

Switzerland 3.3 40

Content

1 Emerging Nuclear Technologies

2 Energy Consumption

3 Political Environment

4 Renewable Energies Overview

5 Supporting Technologies

6 Nuclear Technologies

7 Comparison of aspects

8 Swiss Energy Strategy

9 Companies Mentioned

10 Key Sources

Supporting technologies

energy storage

smart grid

oth

ers

nucl

ear

Modern Renewables

sola

r

win

d

hyd

ro

bio

geo

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neutron moderator, they produce long-term (up

to millions of years) nuclear waste, which

requires a geologically stable repository.

Fast breeder reactor

Alternative type of reactors are fast neutron

breeder reactors generating more fissile fuel

than they use from fertile materiel uranium-238

or thorium-232. Fast reactors are a type of

breeder reactors, where fission chain reaction

is sustained by fast neutrons, no moderator is

needed. Operating in a “closed fuel cycle” fast

reactors reprocess spent fuel after its initial use

in a reactor. Instead of sending the spent fuel

into storage and eventually long term disposal,

the materials are reused. Uranium-238 or

thorium-232 are converted into fissile

plutonium-239 or uranium-233 by exposure to

radiation (neutrons) in a reactor. Fissile

material is nuclear fuel, usually uranium-235,

plutonium-239 or uranium-233 that can sustain

a fission chain reaction. By exploiting uranium-

238 (composing approximately 99% of the

natural uranium) instead of uranium-235

significantly improves nuclear fuel efficiency.

Fast reactors can be used to breed more fissile

material than they consume or to burn nuclear

waste. The combination of these two modes has

major implications for the long-term

sustainability of nuclear energy and the

production of carbon-free energy.

In mid-2014 Russia put in operation the most

powerful commercial fast breeder reactor BN-

800 in Beloyarsk. BN-800 which is an

evolutionary development of earlier breeder

designs BN-350 and BN-600. It uses a mixture of

uranium-238 and fissile plutonium-239, and it

breeds more plutonium as it burns.

Already in 2009, Russia and China initiated a

cooperation on the Sanming nuclear power

station in Fujian province, which includes the

construction of two BN-800 reactor power units

with 800 MW capacity each. A more

powerful BN-1200 fast reactor is being

developed as a next step towards Gen IV designs

with the plant operation by 2020.

Small modular reactors (SMR)

are new reactors of smaller capacity of 45 MW

or 100 MW that are simple, safe and cheap.

Building gigawatt-scale nuclear plants assumes

the presence of an appropriately scaled electric

grid infrastructure. If this infrastructure is not

present, and it is not in many developing

countries, then different technologies are

needed, namely, grid-appropriate (modular)

nuclear reactors. SMRs can be built quickly and

could replace existing coal plants that do not

meet air quality emission standards. It could be

deployed in small countries or countries with

limited electrical grid. The choice of SMRs

designs (water-cooled, breeders, or other

alternatives) and exact implication is often

managed by engineering companies. SMRs are

being made using passive safety features and

inherent safety features. Passive safety

features are engineered and do not require

outside input to work. Therefore, SMR

developers are claiming that their designs will

require fewer staff members and less

supervision to run the reactor.

Thorium Reactor

The thorium reactor is a breeder reactor with

fertile material thorium-232 instead of

uranium-238. Not fissile thorium-232 under the

neutron irradiation is transformed into fissile

uranium-233 with almost no plutonium as by-

product. Thorium is three times as abundant as

uranium and can be explored more safely and

efficiently than uranium. There is up to

hundred times less nuclear waste compared to

presently used light water reactors. In the

breeder type of reactor thorium fuel is used

more efficiently so that a more sustainable

energy generation is achieved. The thorium fuel

cycle still needs to be fully understood. The

significant disadvantages are expensive testing,

licensing work as well as creating new industrial

infrastructure for the thorium fuel cycle. India

has one of the largest supplies of thorium in the

world. So, India's nuclear power program is

focused on developing an advanced heavy-

water thorium cycle to utilise the country's

abundant thorium.

Molten Salt Reactor (MSR)

MSR is a reactor, which uses salt of thorium or

uranium dissolved in liquid LiF. Such reactors

are designed to be meltdown proof (because

they are already melted). The nuclear fuel is

dissolved in the coolant itself. In the event of a

power failure or if temperatures exceed a set

limit, the fuel is drained into an underground

tank for safe storage. There are about 20 firms

worldwide looking for this technology, but the

new cycle scheme is not fully researched. The

end of the viability R&D phase is suggested to

end by 2025. However, the prototype reactor

was operating in the United States in the 1960s.

Accelerator Driven System (ADS)

ADS is a reactor system, which combines a high intensity proton accelerator and a nuclear reactor. The accelerator controls and drives the reactor: by delivering proton beam to spallation target, fast neutrons are produced to ignite the chain reaction. If the accelerator stops, the reactor stops and no runaway chain reaction is possible. Accidents like in Chernobyl are not possible, because the reactor can't be “critical” if the accelerator stops. Current research MYRRHA project (Belgium) is scheduled to be in

Content

1 Emerging Nuclear Technologies

2 Energy Consumption

3 Political Environment

4 Renewable Energies Overview

5 Supporting Technologies

6 Nuclear Technologies

7 Comparison of aspects

8 Swiss Energy Strategy

9 Companies Mentioned

10 Key Sources

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operation by 2023 and is planned to be used in nuclear waste reprocessing.

Traveling Wave Reactor (TWR)

TWR is under design by Bill Gates' company

Terrapower, it uses uranium-238 or spent

fuel removed from light water reactors and

burns it until the end. TWR shall have a longer

operation period with up to 50 years without

refuelling compared to the presently existing

reactors with a refuelling cycle of several years.

The company says it is working with partners in

China, Russia, India, Japan and South Korea.

Terrapower states that construction of a 600

MW prototype is planned for 2018-2022

followed by operation of commercial plants of

1’150 MW starting late 2020s.

Thermonuclear Reactor (Fusion)

Nuclear fusion is a process that powers the sun.

The idea is to control released fusion energy.

Nuclear fusion is a much cleaner energy source

than fission and also very sustainable as the

amount of fuel for fusion is practically

unlimited (light elements: hydrogen, helium

and boron). The amount of radioactive waste

produced should be hundreds of times less than

that of a fission reactor. The inherent safety

characteristics of a fusion reactor are linked to

the very low fuel inventory in the reactor during

operation and the absence of a "chain reaction".

Technology leader is the ITER Organization

(France), which is a test facility with 500 MW

thermonuclear reactor and is a joint research

project of the United States, the European

Union, Japan, Russia, China, South Korea, and

India. In 2010, the total price of constructing

the experiment was estimated to be around

EUR 15bn. A number of much smaller and

cheaper alternative fusion concepts are also

under study now, with government and private

venture capital funding e.g. Tri Alpha Energy

(USA), General Fusion (Canada), Budker

Institutes of Nuclear Physics (Russia).

There are also plans to use fusion reactors in a

hybrid mode to bread fuel for fission reactors.

Comparison of aspects

The continuous increase of global power

demand and CO2 emissions will force countries

to employ nuclear power or additional

renewables in the long run. Countries which are

serious about an alternative energy future,

need to develop a plan. For illustration, we

show below several numbers for comparison of

nuclear, wind and solar.

The total land area of the earth is 149m km2,

the land area of Switzerland is 0.041m km2 and

the area of the Sahara is 9.4m km2.

In 2014 nuclear power plants world-wide

counted 437. To provide additional 15 TW by

2050 as projected by World Energy Council,

would require 15’000 1-GW nuclear power

plants. All these new nuclear power stations

required to fill the gap, would occupy

approximately 0.015m km2, assuming roughly

one km2 of required area for an average 1-GW

nuclear plant. Assuming for simplicity of

comparison the same capacity factor of roughly

90% as for nuclear for wind and solar plants to

cover 15 TW would occupy an area of

approximately 3,6m km2 and 0.45m km2,

respectively. For illustration purposes, the use

of wind and solar vs. nuclear energy would

roughly require 270 times more space. While

the whole of India would need to be covered for

solar & wind, only a third of Switzerland would

be required to close the global energy gap by

deploying nuclear power plants: in a time of

growing populations in particular in the lesser

developed countries, the use of land is an

important opportunity cost to be brought into

any analysis.

A possible comparison of the discussed Gen IV

designs in terms of industrial availability, waste

produced or reprocessed, fuel efficiency,

construction costs and safety is shown as per

below with three evaluation degrees: ++ , +- , -

- , where "+" stands for good/efficient/cheap

and "-" stands for poor/not efficient/expensive.

* Note that it is difficult to access the weaknesses precisely

for designs in pre or at proof-of-concept stages

Safety margin of core damage frequency

according to INPRO standards count 1 in

thousand years for Gen I built in 70s, 1 in 10

thousand years for Gen II built in 80s, 1 in 10

thousand to 100 thousand years for Gen II built

Comparison of nuclear reactor designs

+ + + + - + + - -

+ + - - - - - (-)

- + + + + + + + +

- + - + + + - (+)

- + + + + + + + +

- + - + - + - (+)

Construction + + + + - + + - -

Cost - - - - - - + (-)

+ + + + + + + + +

- - + - + - - (+)

Fusion

BN 800

MSR

Thoriu

mADS

TWR

SMR

LWR

Industrial

availability

Waste

Fuel Efficiency

Safety

Design Type

Land use nuclear vs. land use of solar & wind

Content

1 Emerging Nuclear Technologies

2 Energy Consumption

3 Political Environment

4 Renewable Energies Overview

5 Supporting Technologies

6 Nuclear Technologies

7 Comparison of aspects

8 Swiss Energy Strategy

9 Companies Mentioned

10 Key Sources

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in the 90s, 1 in 100 thousand to 1 million years

for Gen II - III built in 2000.

Today the required standard is 1 in a million to

10 million years.

In case of an accident, modern reactors are

passively cooled and do not require

traditionally used active cooling for several

days after the shutdown as was in the case of

Fukushima (“old” Gen II). Also, constant

modernization and maintenance of a nuclear

plant is very important and was not properly

done at the Fukushima power plant.

Passive safety and waste reprocessing should be

the new standard for all reactor designs going

forward.

As discussed above modern renewables and

nuclear power have specific advantages and

disadvantages when being compared to one

another. It is important to consider the

geographic location, economic and political

factors coupled with the right choice of the

energy mix for each particular country. With

power demand doubling by 2050 and taking into

consideration ecological constraints we

conclude that it will require a sensible global

energy mix: a possible combination could be a

third fossil fuels, a third renewable (mainly

contributed by solar, wind, and hydro) and a

third nuclear power.

Swiss Energy Strategy

Switzerland is the only country where the

federal government decided to quit its nuclear

energy program post the Fukushima accident.

While Germany, Belgium and Spain decided to

exit prior to the accident.

As part of that decision, Switzerland has

formulated an “energy strategy 2050” where

the following overriding aspects need to be

dealt with:

- How to close the energy gap due to

increased demand and the expected

phasing out of the nuclear energy plants

- Replacement of old power plants and grid

infrastructure

- Market liberalization and cooperation with

Europe

With respect to closing the energy gap, the VSE (association of electricity producers) has mapped out different strategies. The key messages are that hydro (due to resource and environmental constraints) and coal (environmental and transportation cost) based energy will not grow. This suggests that (i) natural gas imports, (ii) electricity imports and (iii) renewable energies need to fill the gap. Switzerland has low potential for renewables:

low capacity factors and area available for solar and wind power plants. If Switzerland wants to remain largely energy self-sufficient, nuclear energy will need to remain an important pillar in the energy mix.

Switzerland has always been involved in most of

the European nuclear projects with world

famous scientific institutes like CERN and PSI. It

was and we believe it should remain key for the

country to retain its nuclear know-how and

competences of running a nuclear plant and

being involved in research for future

generations of nuclear plants.

Companies Mentioned

Key Sources

[1] World Energy Council 2013, World Energy

Resources.

[2] World Energy Council 2013, Composing

energy futures to 2050.

[3] Bloomberg, New energy finance, Global

trends in renewable energy investment

2014.

[4] Ren21 Steering committee, Renewables

2014 Global Status report.

[5] Stephen M. Goldberg and Robert Rosner,

Nuclear Reactors: Generation to

Generation, American Academy of Arts and

Sciences, 2011.

[6] Interview with Dr. Marco Streit, Head of

Isotope and Element Analysis Group, PSI,

Switzerland.

[7] China Electricity Council (CEC)

[8] Bill Gates TED 2010 Presentation, The Wall

Street Journal 2012

Companies in the sector (nuclear & renewables)

Name Country Sector Technology Description

Belenos Clean Power CH storage fuel cells

Envergate Energy CH renewable wind

Landis & Gyr CH distribution smart grid & metering

Agile Windpower CH renewable wind

Avelar RU/CH renewable solar

Tesla motors USA automotive electric car

Tri Alpha Energy USA nuclear fusion

TerraPower USA nuclear fission

General Fusion USA nuclear fusion

Lockheed Martin Corp. USA nuclear fusion

General Atomics USA nuclear fission

Gen4 Energy USA nuclear SMR fission

Westinghouse USA nuclear fission

Budker Institute RU nuclear fusion

Kurchatov Institute RU nuclear fission, fusion

OKBM Afrikantov RU nuclear fission

Rosatom RU nuclear fission

Thorium power CAN nuclear fission

Thor Energy NO nuclear fission

ITER International nuclear fusion

MYRRHA EU nuclear fission

Areva F nuclear fission

Kepco ROK nuclear fission

Toshiba JP nuclear fission

Mitsubishi JP nuclear fission

Content

1 Emerging Nuclear Technologies

2 Energy Consumption

3 Political Environment

4 Renewable Energies Overview

5 Supporting Technologies

6 Nuclear Technologies

7 Comparison of aspects

8 Swiss Energy Strategy

9 Companies Mentioned

10 Key Sources

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CORPORATESCORPORATESCORPORATESCORPORATES ASSETSASSETSASSETSASSETS INVESTMENTSINVESTMENTSINVESTMENTSINVESTMENTS FAMILY OFF ICESFAMILY OFF ICESFAMILY OFF ICESFAMILY OFF ICES

Team

Urban Schwerzmann Partner

Nadja Teichert Partner

Gero Wendenburg Partner

Angelina Parfenova Intern

About Infrasuisse

Infrasuisse is a partner-owned, independent advisory and investment firm providing

capital and structured financial solutions to small and medium-sized companies or

to specific investment projects such as asset and project financings.

Our extensive and broad financial expertise, long standing network combined with the

access to a broad, global and in-depth investor base including LPs, banks, Investment

Funds, Family Offices and other institutional investors, make us a preferred partner

for our clients

Philosophy

Since 2001 we have successfully acted on behalf of our clients with the aim of closing

transactions and meeting our clients’ expectations. While the corporate and asset life

cycles may appear similar, there are many differences in the way a financing can be

structured depending on the type of underlying risk, cash flow, legal structure or

security involved.

Key for successful deal structuring is to understand the expectations of all parties

involved. In order to manage the different parties (lawyers, investors, banks,

appraisers, auditors et al.) efficiently, it requires both intuition and discipline in order

to keep transaction cost within the budget. We value the insight of an entrepreneur

and a leading shareholder highly and like to work with our clients in a team.

Through our “open source” Infrasuisse Partnering Platform approach we strive to grow

the collective know-how to the benefit of our clients.

Focus

Our clients are mainly based in the German speaking markets. However, we also

manage and advise on corporate and asset based transactions throughout Europe,

where our international network can be of help. We have also been mandated for

projects in the US, UK, Sweden, Russia and the UAE. We are preferably working on

transactions not exceeding an enterprise value of EUR 500 million and usually try to

stay away from transactions where public capital markets play a dominant role.

In select cases we are investing our own funds in the form of direct investments either

in the form of private debt or equity. We also do support Family Offices on specific

topics such as relocations and alternative investments.

We have gathered specific know-how in the areas of branded consumer products,

fashion, contracted research, biotech, IT, renewable energy and transportation across

most corporate and asset life-cycles.

Growth through

partnering

Our offices

Infrasuisse GmbH Arbachstrasse 2 6340 Baar T +41 41 748 15 82 www.infrasuisse.com