oulu ehealth - watson and the future of healthcare
TRANSCRIPT
IBM Watson and the Future of HealthcareeHealth-päivä OYS 29.3.2016
Jouko Poutanen, IBM [email protected]
Agenda
► Healthcare Industry Trends
► What and Why of Cognitive Computing?
► Watson in Healthcare
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Healthcare Vision 2020
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https://youtu.be/bVY7OmYqBSY
The healthcare industry is experiencing unprecedented level of disruption…
Source[1]: http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/health_systems_and_services/how_us_healthcare_companies_can_thrive_amid_disruption
For more than half a century, healthcare expenditures have risen considerably faster than GDP growth
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Cumulative real per capita growth in national health expenditures vs. GDP, % growth since 19601
GDP National health expenditure
5x
There’s a gap in the accuracy of treatment decisions.
As many as 44% of all initial cancer treatments are modified on the second course of treatment. 1
Less than 50% of medicine is evidence based.2
An epidemiologist would have to read 167 hours a week to keep up with new professional insight. 3
Aging populations can’t be served.
25% of Japan's population is over 65, growing to 40% by 2060. 4
1. Journal of Clinical Oncology, Talk about Health Blog, Sept 2011 2. www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2007/0710.brownlee.html 3. http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2013/02/computer-aided-medicine4. "Population Statistics of Japan 2012". National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. January 2012.
Data: must be harnessed and harvested
2010
Volu
me
in E
xaby
tes
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2020
Percentage of uncertain data
Percent of uncertain data
100
80
60
40
20
0
Sensors & Devices
VoIP
Enterprise Data
Social Media
Source: IBM Global Technology Outlook - 2012
We are here
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Unable to use the new natural resource of data to fullest extent, organizations experience a performance gap…
4V of Data(Volume, Variety, Velocity, Veracity)
Cha
nge Performance Gap
Opportunity…new ways of working, operating, thinking
Achievement…but riding by the constraints of limited capabilities, organization achievements would be at slower pace
By 2010 Health Information Will Double Every 73 Days
1100 TerabytesGenerated per lifetime
25%Medical Care
5%Genetic
75%Social Context, Behaviors
Impact on population health status
SOURCE: Barbara J. Sowada, A Call to Be Whole: The Fundamentals of Health Care Reform, July 30, 2003, Praeger.
Consumer-contributed data from non-medical sources: wearables, social media activity, public records
6 TerabytesEMR, EHR, claim systems
0.4 TerabytesGenetic research, personalized medicine, clinical trials
Traditional technology can’t fully utilise 2/3 of health data!Huge opportunity for improvement
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Healthcare is moving to a system focused on value, coordinated around the individual and integrated into our communities
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Emphasis is on proactive care to meet health needs
Payment is based uponvalue and outcomes
Care is standardized according to evidence-based guidelines
We measure quality and make rapid changes to improve it
Knowledge is translated into practice quickly
Data and Information
Understand and
influencetheir
populations
Evidence-based andstandardized care planning
Coordinationacross
boundaries-- share care,
accountabilityand risk
Individualengagement
andempower-
ment
Quality measurement
andperformance
reporting
Social Worker
BehaviouralHealth
Family
Community
Pallative Care/Hospice
Rehabilitation
Home Care
Specialists Intensivist
Physical Therapist
Dietician
Case Manager
Caregivers
Transportation
Housing
Medications
Funding and Payment
PrimaryCare
Why cognitive? Humans as observers…
What do you see?
“..you see one or the other, never both. And the way we perceive is strongly connected to how we think about more abstract issues, even politics”- Dr. Nick Chater, Warwick Business School, Behavioral Science Lab
Why cognitive? Humans as Decision Makers…The cognitive process of human decision making
Observe
InterpretDecide
Evaluate
Cognitive systems reduce the bias from our decision making
Social proof
Group think
Outliar, Halo Effect
Sunk cost
Availability bias
Pattern recognition
Examples of human cognitive biases
We Need a New Way of Computing …
Tabulation
1900 - 1950 - 2011 -
Programmatic Era Cognitive Era
Traditional IT• Structured data (local)• Deterministic Applications• Machine Language• Systems of records
• Structured & unstructured (global)• Probabilistic Applications• Discovery Oriented• Natural Language• Systems of engagement
Industry Solutions
BusinessAnalytics
Big Data
Watson
Learn by example
Learn by programming
CloudComputing
LearnsDecisions made by leading experts feed the engine. Watson learns & improves over time.
Understands Natural LanguageWatson can read and understandmillions of documents:• Medical Texts• Evidence-Based Guidelines• Peer-reviewed Articles• Clinical and Case Records
ReasonsWatson searches & analyzes data, returning evidence-based recommendations.
Watson: A Cognitive System
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How Cognitive Systems Drive Value?
Scale AccelerateEnhance
Human Expertise
RBV, Capabilities Theory, Tacit Knowledge…
Published Knowledge
Knowledge-Driven Method Data-Driven Method
ObservationalData
• Longitudinal records• Claims, Rx, Labs• Patient reported data
• Scientific papers• Books• Guidelines
Closing the translational knowledge gap Personalized Insights from institutional data
From population averages … To insights for individual patient!
Hypothesis with confidence measurement which is backed up by personalized measurements and insights
Watson as a decision support system
DataStandards based.
Massively scalable.Open repository of data on all
dimensions of health for research.
Insights as a Service Knowledge and
actionable information,through advanced analyticsand cognitive capabilities
Watson Health Cloud
Data - Insight - Solutions
SolutionsFrom IBM &
an ecosystem of partners.Improves the overall
experience and increases the quality of outcomes.
Individual
Social Programs
EducationGovernments
Home Health Agencies
Practitioners
Hospitals
Therapists
Health Plans
Family
Public Health
Medical Devicesand DiagnosticsBio-Pharma
Employers
Driving Engagement Across Communities of Care
Payers
IBM Watson // ©2015 IBM Corporation
Population Health
Management
Identify care gaps and deliver
timely, coordinated care
Social Programs
Address individuals' social context for better
outcomes
Real WorldEvidence
Uncover health interventions to
inform care approaches
ConditionSpecific Care
Apply best care protocols to
manage chronic conditions
Healthand Wellness
Empower individuals to live healthier, more productive lives
DiscoverySolutions
Accelerate research and
improve treatments
Solutions for the health industry
Life Sciences, Care Providers, Payers, Employers, Wellness, and Health And Human Services
SolutionsPopulation Health
Management
ConditionSpecific Care
Healthand Wellness
Social Programs
DiscoverySolutions
Real WorldEvidence
EcosystemPopulation Health
Management
ConditionSpecific Care
Healthand Wellness
Social Programs
DiscoverySolutions
Real WorldEvidence
Individual
Social Programs
Education
Governments
Home HealthAgencies
Practitioners
Hospitals
Therapists
Health Plans
Family
Public Health
Medical Devicesand Diagnostics
Bio-Pharma
Employers
Payers
DataInsight
IBM Watson // ©2015 IBM Corporation
Solutions
Population HealthManagement
ConditionSpecific Care
Healthand Wellness
Social Programs
DiscoverySolutions
Real WorldEvidence`
Watson Analytics
eHealthSolutions
Solutions
DataStructured & Unstructured
InsightsCognitive &
Advanced Analytics
Watson Discovery & Genomic Advisor to aid in drug research
Testing new drugs with Clinical Trial
Matching
Protocol development/ Clinical trial design with
Explorys
WH eHealth: Data collection from devices, cloud data integration
predictive analytics
WH Phytel: Patient Engagement and Care
Coordination
Data and Knowledge Ingested by Watson Health Platform
Insights as a service delivered by Watson Health platform
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Private HIPAA, GXP Cloud
COGNITIVE USE CASES
Improve Engagement R&D Productivity Improve Outcomesexamples provided
© 2014 International Business Machines Corporation 23
Watson Uncovers Cancer Clues – Baylor College of Medicine
The Result:1.I n the past 35 years, an average of one P53 kinase per year has been discovered
2. Analyzing articles through 2003, Watson identified 9 kinases that could phosphorylate P53
3. In 2013, Watson identified 2 additional kinases likely to phosphorylate p53. Early experiments have yielded confirmatory evidence.
The Question:• Are there novel kinases that could activate the
P53 protein? The Goal:• Accelerate the discovery of novel ways to
activate P53 through phosphorylation of related proteins.
The Challenge:• Effectively discovering insights from:
‒ More than 70,000 papers exist on P53‒ 240,000 papers exist on human kinases
• This year 2 million women will be diagnosed with breast cancer worldwide
• Therapies available for treatment : more than 800
• To keep up, it would take a physician 160 hours of reading per week!
• 15,000 hours of training by MSK, Watson ingested more than 600,000 pieces of medical evidence, 2 million pages of text, 1.5 million patient records and 26,000 clinical cases
• Watch the video in the next slide
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https://youtu.be/338CIHlVi7A
IBM Watson for Oncology Demo
Quality&Regulatory
GlobalCloudInfrastructureSecurity&Privacy
Operational Subsystem AnalyticsSubsystem
Watson Health Offers an eHealth Journey
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Analyticaltoolsandcapabilitiesthatsupportevidence-basedclinicaldecisionmakingresultinginenhancedefficiencyandeffectivenessin
caredeliveryandpopulationmanagement
Toolsandcapabilitiesthatenablepersonalizedcaredelivery,includingcareassessment,careplanning,providercollaboration,andaccessto
outcomesdataacrossthespectrumofcaresettings
Fundamentalcapabilitiesthatlinkinformationsystemsanddatasetsforthesamepatientallowingforaholistic,longitudinalviewof
patient’sinformationacrosscaresettings
Analytics
Foundation
Data-driv
eninsig
hts
Expe
rientialinsights
WellBeing
CareCoordination
Socialdeterminantshavedirectimpactonoverallhealthand
wellbeing
Lifestylechoiceshave
directimpactonmentalandphysicalwellness
Clinicalfactorssuchasmedicalsymptoms,history,medications,etc.are
indicatorsofanindividual’shealth
Respiratory Diabetes
for
Oncology
CentralNervousSystem CHF