otrec april 2011
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Topic: Electric Vehicles: Are We in The Driver's Seat?Presented by George Beard, Portland State UniversityFriday, April 1st 2011Urban Center of Portland State University campus. http://www.cts.pdx.edu/seminars/Abstract: When it comes to electric vehicles (EVs), Oregon has all the right ingredients: the Governor's support, the necessary infrastructure and investment by major manufacturers; but is that enough to ensure success? George Beard, Portland State University's conduit to Portland General Electric (PGE) and other EV partners, will provide a briefing on the status of EV deployment and adoption in Oregon. His talk will examine remaining barriers to EV adoption and the conditions in which key parties can overcome them. Can the professionals who are working on EVs, including planners and engineers, have any impact on the most important measure of success: consumer acceptance? Sit down, plug in, and find out!TRANSCRIPT
DATE April 1, 2011OTREC 2011 Transportation Seminar Series
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: ARE WE IN THE DRIVER’S SEAT?
Presentation by George Beard, Portland State University
Holding the Horses1
1. FROM MEN, MACHINES, AND MODERN TIMES, ELTING E. MORISON, 1966
Holding the Horses
More recently, the Vatican announced that 2,000 years after St. Peter wrote the first papal letter, Pope John Paul II's 200-page encyclical was coming out on a computer disk. $5.60 at bookstores everywhere.
Holding the Horses
Two days later, the U.S. Coast Guard announced that after nearly 100 years of listening for distress calls via human-generated clicks of a telegraph key, it was turning off its Morse code equipment. The reason? A switch to digital hardware.
Thinking in Time2
What’s known
What’s presumed
What’s unclear
2. THINKING IN TIME: THE USES OF HISTORY FOR DECISION-MAKERS, NEUSTADT & MAY,
1986
KnownLatest generation of EV passenger vehicles and urban trucks/service vans now for sale
More coming in 2012 and 2013
Limited charging infrastructure at this precise moment, but ...
An explosion is about to hit in Oregon and several other states later this year
Known
RETC/BETC incentives in Oregon
Uniform building codes in Oregon
Oregon in general (and Portland in particular) rank high on “EV Readiness”
50 Cities-EV Readiness
50 Cities-EV Readiness
SOME QUESTIONS
Is the state of ‘readiness’ enough to lead to the achievement of a desired outcome?
If not, can we understand/anticipate other enablers and impediment to change?
To what extent do ‘vestigial’ behavior, culture, or patterns of routine shape social and civic adoption?
Presumed
RETC/BETC credits will continue
Gas prices will rise !! (??)
We are rational
Most of our fellow Oregonians think like we do
If EVs can’t succeed in Oregon, they won’t succeed at all
PresumedPrice-performance on batteries will markedly improve in the near term
EV owners will charge (L1/L2) at home most of the time
EV owners will augment their charging at work, if it is available
Many people will convenience charge as they run around
Presumed
DC fast charging is the antidote to range anxiety
Fuel cell vehicles are still 10-years off
TBD business models will work (even if they haven’t been developed yet)
Unclear
Will the EV market take off?
If so, how quickly?
What is the customary, practical range of an EV (not its nominal range)?
UnclearHow much does a battery degrade over time from frequent DC fast charging?
Electric motors are reliable; are EVs over time?
What adoption drivers or impediments will surprise us in the months and years ahead?
Will such surprises ... along with the ‘presumed” and “unclear” EV factors mentioned earlier ... provide a tipping point or a tripping point?
This much seems obvious
The status quo is not free
EVs are but one element of a portfolio of 21st century mobility approaches that must be crafted and nurtured
The dictum of Louis Pasteur should challenge us to be an innovator and leader: “Fortune favors a prepared mind”.
And finally ...
Lessons from MAXEVs are part of a larger, longer transportation electrification effort.
If the adoption of EVs mirror the adoption of MAX, street cars and even aerial trams, we must judge success over 30-years and not just the next three years.
This great and promising enterprise is ultimately about social and civic adoption, not about vehicles!