National Technical University of Athens

(Coordinator)(Coordinator)

Tech4i2 Limited European Projects & Management Agency

University Koblenz-Landau Joint Research CentreEuropean Commission

EC Constituency Building WS – Brussels, 13th July 2010

David Osimo (Tech4i2) & Yannis Charalabidis (NTUA)David Osimo (Tech4i2) & Yannis Charalabidis (NTUA)

1. The rationale of ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling2. The State of the Art: definition and taxonomy of ICT for G&PM3. The 4 Grand Challenges4. The emerging research challenges, and key actors 5. Next steps - how you can collaborate

Rising number of tipping points, unpredictable “black swan” events: (financial and economic crisis; terrorist attacks, volcano ash cloud; large scale black-out; climate change)Can’t be adequately addressed by traditional econometric models

Explosion in authorship, co-creation and collaboration

Mass collaboration and participationOpen data, open innovation modelsGovernment 2.0More intelligence and more stupidity, more signal and more noise

Source: Helbing 2010

USER: Citizen & Government

Decision and action

Collaborative production

Social networking

Civic hacking Visualiz. for behavioural change

Serious games

Data representation

Visual analytics

Augmented reality

Natural User Interface

Argument mapping

Multi-channel

Data analysis

Non-linear models

Social simulation

Forecasting Models interoperability

Opinion mining

Data validation

Collaborative filtering

Reputation management systems

Authentication / Security

Privacy Social Network Analysis

Data collection

Sensors / IoT / smart cities

Open gov / linked data

Citizens generated data

Serious Games

Cloud Data Exposure

PRODUCER: Citizen & Government

Grand challenges have to:• Be understandable, visual and inspire research idea• Be bold and disruptive but strongly rooted in SoA and addressable by 2020• Contain significant critical mass of research• Address gaps across Research Themes

The proposed grand challenges:1 Model-based governance2 Data-powered behavioural change3 Government Service Utility4 Scientific base of ICT-assisted governance

Today forecast of policy impact

Costly due to large human effort; using mainly econometric models; unable to account for human behavior and tipping points.

Today policy modelling and simulation

Micro-level, fragmented, single-purpose; by computational scientist separately from domain experts and software engineers

Pervasive and joined-up simulation for policy impact assessment: impact assessment for deciding how to optimize garbage collection in a medium city;model-building and simulation carried out the responsible civil servant based on pre-built models, in collaboration with domain expert through a model-as-a-service software;Macro-model are dynamically integrated with micro models of other institutional levels and sectors; Models are evolving, accounting for input from massive amounts of data, structured (from RFID in garbage bags) and non-structured (feedback from citizens behavior and opinion);model and data are exposed in a transparent and privacy-compliant manner; simulations account for human behaviour, anticipate possible tipping points, domino effects

Composable and re-usable modelsModel validation tools Integrated multi-modeling toolsIntuitive interface for model building and simulationIntegration – consolidation of a range of existing modeling techniques, i.e. qualitative analytic models with behavioral modelsEasy access to knowledge bases and their integration:post hoc - read and understand arguments ex ante - consultation based on understand evidence

Ensuring outputs are representable so that participating stakeholders are able to understand models and outcomesMass-participation online - an aspect of representation

Participants

Type of engagement

Lisa Simpson Bart Simpson

Conversation Today 2020

Action and behavioural change

2020 2020

“with the ideal of naked transparency alone--our democracy…is doomed…Limited attention span will assure that the most salient is the most stable. Unwarranted conclusions will be drawn, careers will be destroyed, alienation will grow.”

Lawrence Lessig 2009

“with the ideal of naked transparency alone--our democracy…is doomed…Limited attention span will assure that the most salient is the most stable. Unwarranted conclusions will be drawn, careers will be destroyed, alienation will grow.”

Lawrence Lessig 2009

Open discussion through simulation by open data and models. More engaged people (Lisa Simpson) to manipulate data and simulation to provide alternative views and to collaborateLess engaged people (Bart Simpson) have progressive forms of participation through third party visualization tools, and by checking the opinion of trusted high-reputation experts (Lisa)Maximum usage is made of short, limited attention spansCitizen choice simulation: When using public services, citizens have immediate feedback on their impact of their choices, at personal and systemic level, such as the cost and taxes. Social networking and gaming engage users to save on public services by showing performances over time and comparison. Government decision-makers are fully accountable through simulation and open data that show the impact of different options, including non-action.

Massive data exposure and interoperabilityCollaborative multidimensional visualization of large datasetsData and content curation tools for intermediariesAttention management tools to leverage maximum participationTechno/psychological research on leveraging incentives to participation and crowdsourcing (rage, fun, vanity…)Institutional process design for massive collaborationSynchronized, cross-platform and cross-device reputation management system for quality and relevance filteringContext aware, real time bi-directional participation toolsCross-validation of objective and subjective data for behavioural change

Present:Traditional public services have not delivered their promised added value or

lived up to the expectations of citizens and businesses for real cost-effective, one stop-shop provisions.

Citizens rarely have direct access to create personalized services, they actually need at their own means for personal, civic or business use.Future:

Services are converging and moving from the physical into the digital world, universally accessible on any device, be it a smartphone, tablet, personal computer, digital radio or high-definition television.

Government clouds are still in their infancy hindering their actual potential on service provision and still having to overcome potential risks related to interoperability, privacy and security.

Future Internet appears as a key enabler for “real” public service systems, since it offers a unique capability to collaborate at design time, engineer and aggregate services originally offerred for public, private, personal and civic use in real time from multiple devices.

Samos, July 7th, 2010 17

Present:Traditional public services have not delivered their promised added value or

lived up to the expectations of citizens and businesses for real cost-effective, one stop-shop provisions.

Citizens rarely have direct access to create personalized services they actually need at their own means for personal, civic or business use.Future:

Services are converging and moving from the physical into the digital world, universally accessible on any device, be it a smartphone, tablet, personal computer, digital radio or high-definition television.

Government clouds are still in their infancy hindering their actual potential on service provision and still having to overcome potential risks related to interoperability, privacy and security.

Future Internet appears as a key enabler for “real” public service systems, since it offers a unique capability to collaborate at design time, engineer and aggregate services originally offerred for public, private, personal and civic use in real time from multiple devices.

18

“Public Services should be available in 1 second by 1 access

point with a total cost of 1 euro, in ways the citizens prefer”

•Citizens can utilize real-time context-aware public services to compose interoperable, complex service systems in their everyday life

•Multiple government, private and hybrid clouds manipulate massive data provided by citizens, that can be cross-checked by federated registries and validated by ubiquitous devices in various occasions for tax clearance purposes

•The Government Service Utility allows for service composition and consumption from the Public Sector, private enterprises and citizens in parallel (service co-generation), similar to the power utilities

19

• Participative service design and engineering tools, • Real-time negotiation and collaboration • (Real-time) Large-scale visualization• Cloud interoperability• Legal framework for open data• Privacy mechanisms, • Massive data protection protocols • Content tracking and tracing• Authentication• Unified service delivery (desktop, mobile, internet of services)

A first approach for a scientific base, may opt for:

• The taxonomy of ICT-enabled governance concepts (facets, subjects, methods, sub-domains)

• Formal methods for categorising and analysing problems and solutions (candidates: sets, vectors, categories, information flow, pattern theories)

• Metrics and Assessment models for ICT in Governance

• Decision Support & Simulation Tools (supporting problem-solution relation, utilising BPM/BPR tools, vertical approaches)

• ICT for Government Testing Facilities

• Training Curricula

Samos, July 7th, 2010 22

• We need the collaborative effort of all actors to deliver the paradigm shift and make a difference on how policy-making is delivered

• CROSSROAD launched, in addition to the Expert Scientific Committee, a Government and and Industry group - open for new subscriptions

• Publish first draft roadmap Sept 2010• First draft roadmap presented in ICT 2010• Online voting on each research challenge based on:

– Importance of the impact– Original research effort

• Final roadmap with policy recommendations Dec 2010

Join the open, collaborative roadmapping!• www.crossroad-eu.net ; • #xroad @crossroad-eu on Twitter; • Linkedin group Crossroad-EU

National Technical University of Athens

(Coordinator)(Coordinator)

Tech4i2 Limited European Projects & Management Agency

University Koblenz-Landau Joint Research CentreEuropean Commission

David Osimo Tech4i2David Osimo Tech4i2david.osimo@tech4i2.comdavid.osimo@tech4i2.com

National Technical University of Athens

(Coordinator)(Coordinator)

Tech4i2 Limited European Projects & Management Agency

University Koblenz-Landau Joint Research CentreEuropean Commission

[Athens], [12th January 2010] 27

MONTMONTH 12H 12

From wp1: SoA From wp1: SoA researchresearch

From wp3: From wp3: grand grand

challengeschallenges

From wp1: SoA From wp1: SoA researchresearch

From wp3: From wp3: grand grand

challengeschallenges

Policy modeling and simulation

Large-scale co-production

Collaborative evaluationVisualizationOpen data

Visual analyticsSocial/world modeling

Sector-specific modeling

• For government: enhance system and long-term thinking; anticipate future risks; better crisis management; more effective service provision;

• For citizens: more influence; better services; cross-cultural dialogue

• For industry: growing market

To be To be revisedrevisedTo be To be

revisedrevised

Time

Impact

External Enhancement & Exploration

PopularisationWave 3

Industrial quality solutions. Communication and marketing towards broader communities. Substantiation of value.

Development and Extension

Internal Enhancement & Exploration

Wave 2Stabilisation of models and tools. Population of solution scenaria. Impact assessment and simulation. Training curriculum.

Concept Formulation

Foundational PrinciplesWave 1

Ability to identify and describe problems and solutions. Research community establishment. Convergence on initial concepts.

TodaySamos, July 7th, 2010 30

Theme Model-based Data-powered change

Utility Gov Science base

Transparency Linked data collaborationVisual analytics

Open dataVisual analytics

Linked data X

Social Computing

Expertise identification

Large scale collaboration

X

Collaborative policy modelling

Qualitative data in modelsCollaboration in modelling simulation

Usability and collaboration in models

X

Trust Privacy and Identity mgmt

Privacy Identity X

Future Internet Cloud IoSIoT

Cloud IosIoT

Ios Iot Interoperability

X

Theme Model-based Data-powered change

Utility Gov Science base

Transparency Linked data collaborationVisual analytics

Open dataVisual analytics

Linked data X

Social Computing

Expertise identification

Large scale collaboration

X

Collaborative policy modelling

Qualitative data in modelsCollaboration in modelling simulation

Usability and collaboration in models

X

Trust Privacy and Identity mgmt

Privacy Identity X

Future Internet Cloud IoSIoT

Cloud IosIoT

Ios Iot Interpoerability

X

EpistemologyScientific MethodsMultid: Computer ScienceMultid: Social SciencesMultid: Management Science

33Location, Date

More people and scientist involved (Gov20 and EBPM)

More accurate analytical, modeling and simulation tools

More data available (the data deluge)

20102010

20202020