Towards increased resilience: The role of social capital in inclusive

risk and disaster governance”

International Disaster Reduction Conference

Davos, August 28, 2012

Ortwin Renn

Stuttgart University andDIALOGIK gemeinnützige GmbH

PART 1

Risk, Vulnerability and Resilience

Risk, Vulnerability and Resilience

Risk: Probability of a risk agent (hazard) impacting on a risk absorbing system (target) and causing specific extent of damage

Vulnerability: The extent to which the risk absorbing system reacts to the stress induced by the risk agent

Resilience: The extent to which the risk absorbing system has the capacity to cope with stress induced by the risk agent

Vulnerability and Resilience

Risk: Probability of a risk agent (hazard) impacting on a risk absorbing system (target) and causing specific extent of damage

Vulnerability: The extent to which the risk absorbing system reacts to the stress induced by the risk agent

Resilience : The extent to which the risk absorbing system has the capacity to cope with stress induced by the risk agent

Main Objectives for Resilience

1.to guarantee the functional continuity service in times of stress and disaster

2.to limit the extent of losses and impacts if the service is discontinued

3.to ensure fast recovery if the provider of the service is unable to continue to provide the needed service

PART 2

Model of Inclusive Governance

Efficiency

AcceptanceFairness

Effectiveness

Legitimacy

Participation

Mediation

The basic structure of inclusive (risk and disaster) governance

Crucial Questions for Inclusion Inclusion

Who: stakeholders, scientists, public(s)What: options, policies, scenarios, frames,

preferencesScope: multi-level governance (vertical and horizontal)Scale: space, time period, future generations

ClosureWhat counts: acceptable evidence)experienceWhat actions should be taken?: competition of

rationales, goals, objectivesHow can performance be evaluated? Different

standards, role of accountability, success

Who should be involved? Vertical governance

Political bodies ranging from communities via regions, states, countries, to international level

Other agencies or ministries (disaster, planning, development, housing, health care)

Subordinate administrations

Horizontal governanceStakeholders (organized groups with an interest in

the issue including private sector and NGOs)Experts (groups with specific knowledge)Multipliers (Media, opinion leaders)Affected and general public

General Requirements for Inclusive Governance

Fairness inclusion of all affected parties representation of all relevant arguments representation of all relevant interests and values

Competence communicative ability (able to make claims and challenge them) substantive validity (state of the art in knowledge) Regional appropriateness

Accountability transparency (internal and external) Reliability compatibility with legal mandates

Efficiency procedures outcomes

PART 3

Application to Risk and Disaster Governance

Why Inclusive Governance for Risk & Disaster Governance?

a. Plurality of modern living conditions: resource availability, living conditions, values, lifestyles

b. Increased uncertainties with respect to future development, climate change impacts, socio-political transformations

c. Movement towards decentralization (political preference, local quest for more autonomy)

d. Distributed knowledge and expertise (systematic, tacit, experiential, local)

e. Better communication and planning tools available (IT, real time monitoring)

f. Limited resources and distribution of agency

Problems of Inclusive Risk and Disaster Governancea. Lack of central mega-planning, coordination, control,

supervision (governance deficits)Balance of assignments (mandate, roles, functions) among

all actorsFragmentation of responsibilities

b. Quality controlLack of competenceLack of accountability

c. Incompatibility of approaches (differences in disciplines, organizational cultures, mandates, identities

d. External constraints: Exclusive focus on efficiency on the expense of resilience

Requirements for Inclusive Risk and DisasterGovernance

a. Organizational structure with emphasis on: distributed intelligence and operations but strong efforts to foster a common organizational culture and

identity and promoting auditing, supervision, and organizational learning.

b. Adaptive management procedures, including: regular revisiting of goals, means, and procedures and conducting internal/external reviews

c. Use of IT-tools and open access services to prove a common communication platform for all actors involved

d. Create a learning environment that provides incentives for all actors to improve performance

Model for Effective Inclusive Governance(US National Academy of Scienes)

Experiential knowledge agencies,

Vert:ical: Cooperation between central and decentral agencie

Horizontal: Private-public partnerships, stakeholder involvement, public participation

ANALYIS

Regional tacit knowledge,

Knowledge integration/monitoring

DELIBERATION

Interdsiciplinary science community

CONCLUSIONS Resilience:

– functionality of system– impact limitation and– ease of recovery

Need for a transition towards inclusive risk and disaster governance

Need for adaptive risk and disaster management based on decentralized operations and centralized coordination

One model: the analytic-deliberative approach to organize inclusive governance

EXTRA SLIDES

Introducing the IRGC’s Risk Governance Framework

DecidingUnderstandingPre-assessment

ManagementCommunication

Characterisation and evaluation

Appraisal

IRGC’s RISK GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORK

Who needs to do what, when?

Who needs to know what,

when?

Is the risk tolerable,

acceptable or unacceptable?

Getting a broad picture

of the risk

The knowledge needed for

judgements and decisions