18 Management Research News Volume 15 Number 10 1992

Organisational Commitment and Job Satisfaction as Predictors of Employee Turnover Intentions

by Michael Jenkins and R. Paul Thomlinson

Research in recent years has shown renewed vigour in the area of employee turnover (e.g., Lee, Ashford, Walsh & Mowday, 1992; Lee & Mitchell, 1992). Earlier studies were rather narrow in scope, restricting their investigation to a single predictor. The major finding shared by these studies was an inverse relationship between job satisfaction and employee turnover (Muchinsky & Tuttle, 1979). This rela­tionship has been especially evident when satisfaction was indicated in relation to the work itself (Muchinsky & Mor­row, 1980). Other studies have shown only a modest relationship between satisfaction and turnover, with an aspect of behavioural intentions needed to provide a stronger relation (e.g. Mobley, Horner & Hollingsworth, 1978)

Organisational commitment, generally measured as an attitudinal identification with a particular organisation and behavioural intentions to resign have been identified as two intermediate constructs leading to turnover. In general, organisational commitment has been empirically shown to be a significant predictor of turnover (Blau & Boal, 1987). In fact, commitment has been shown to dis­criminate between stayers and leavers better than job satisfaction (Porter, Steers, Mowday & Boulian, 1974; Steers, 1977). However, behavioural intentions, account­ing for about 25% of the variance in one meta-analysis (Steel & Ovalle, 1984), have been found to be more pre­dictive of actual turnover than either commitment or satis­faction. Clearly, job satisfaction and organisational commitment are related, but distinguishable constructs (e.g. Brooke, Russell, & Price, 1988).

Williams and Hazer (1986) pointed out that the causal relationship between satisfaction and commitment has been overlooked. They found support for not only this relationship, but also relationships between personal/or­ganisational characteristics and satisfaction, and between commitment and turnover intentions. Not only did commit­ment have the greater impact on intent to quit, but personal and organisational variables affected this relationship only indirectly through satisfaction. More recently, Lee, Ash­ford, Walsh, and Mowday (1992) have demonstrated that commitment propensity, which is composed of specific personal characteristics and experiences, is directly pre­dictive of subsequent organisational commitment. Further, this research showed that commitment at organisational entry was predictive of voluntary turnover over a four-year period.

The causal order of the satisfaction/commitment link has also received empirical attention recently. Vandenberg and Lance (1992) used structural equation modelling tech­

niques in a longitudinal design to tease out which of these constructs comes first in the causal chain. The results of this study were supportive of the commitment causes satisfaction hypothesis. Clearly, the foregoing research has established that general organisational commitment and job satisfaction are significantly linked, and that both have some important place in the causal sequence leading to turnover. What is needed is a more expansive examin­ation of differing conceptions and dimensions of organisa­tional commitment, and how these may predict certain types of turnover.

Researchers have suggested possible benefits in examining differing conceptions of work commitment in order to explore convergent and discriminant validity issues (e.g. Morrow, 1983; Morrow & McElroy, 1986). Meyer and Allen (1984) have separated commitment into two dimensions: affective commitment, traditionally defined as an emotional or affective orientation to the organisation, and continuance commitment, a commit­ment to continue a certain line of action because of the perceived costs of leaving (e.g. the loss of attractive benefits or seniority, inability to transfer, organisation-spe­cific training, and disruption of family life and personal relationships). This distinction may be important in exam­ining several organisation variables. For example, one study found that affective commitment was positively correlated with job performance, whereas a negative rela­tionship was observed between continuance commitment and performance (Meyer, Paunonen, Gellatly, Goffin & Jackson, 1989). In other words, those employees who saw greater costs in leaving performed at lower levels.

Recent arguments have also been presented for ex­panding the traditional view of turnover. Abelson (1987) expanded the voluntary vs. involuntary taxonomy to in­clude the dimensions of avoidability (avoidable vs. una­voidable), providing a total of four cells in the taxonomy. An attempt was made to assess the likelihood of an em­ployee leaving for voluntary, avoidable reasons. Thus, questions concerning intention to turnover asked the re­spondent to consider specific conditions (reasons viewed as avoidable and as matters of personal choice) under which turnover would be considered. Only the aspect of intentions over which the organisation has control (avoid­able turnover) was tapped. Unavoidable turnover (e.g. moving, retirement) may be an inappropriate target of organisational intervention because of a relative lack of organisational control.

Abelson (1987) found that avoidable leavers were less satisfied and less committed than those who either stayed or left for unavoidable reasons. Furthermore, he suggested focusing on affective and withdrawal cognition variables

Management Research News Volume 15 Number 10 1992 19

(i.e. thought processes or intentions) in distinguishing avoidable from unavoidable leavers. Other researchers (e.g. Dalton, Todor, & Krackhardt, 1982; Hollenbeck & Williams, 1986) have pointed to the need to differentiate between turnover frequency and turnover functionality. Both of these distinctions suggest that turnover may, at times, be beneficial to the organisation, further underscor­ing the benefits of an ability to predict who is likely to leave.

Rationale and Hypotheses

The present study takes into account the expanded views of both commitment and turnover. In order to explore differential relationships which may prove to be helpful in predicting turnover, both the continuance, and affective dimensions of commitment were investigated. The present work focused only on turnover which is voluntary and avoidable.

Consistent with previous research, the present study proposed that affective commitment would be positively correlated with job satisfaction and negatively related to turnover intentions. However, because employees scoring high in continuance commitment may be unhappy but also unlikely to voluntarily leave the organisation, the relation­ships between continuance commitment and job satisfac­tion and turnover intentions were expected to differ from those of affective commitment. Specifically, a negative relationship was expected to be detected between conti­nuance commitment and both turnover intentions and satisfaction. Based on earlier research, relatively lower affective commitment was expected to be the strongest predictor of intention to turnover, with job satisfaction playing a weaker role. In sum, the cumulative research suggests the following hypotheses.

Hypothesis 1: Affective commitment is negatively related to voluntary, avoidable turnover intentions, and is positively related to job satisfaction.

Hypothesis 2: Continuance commitment is negatively re­lated to both turnover intentions and job satisfaction.

Hypothesis 3: Both affective commitment and job satis­faction are significant predictors of turn­over intentions, after controlling for age, gender, and tenure with the organisation.

Method

Subjects

Subjects were drawn from the population of a government contracted fluid power plant in the deep South, which employs about 750 workers on the day shift. During this shift, 350 surveys were distributed, and of these, 183 employees completed the survey (52%). The sample was roughly equivalent to the makeup of the organisation as a whole based on comparisons with organisation-wide

demographics. Of the 183 employees participating, 128 were male (70%), 40 were female (22%), and 15 (8%) left the gender identification item blank. The mean age for participants was 41.44 years (SD = 10.88), and the aver­age number of years in the company was 12.51 (SD = 9.47).

Measures

Job Satisfaction. The 72 item Job Descriptive Index (JDI; Smith, Kendall, & Hulin, 1969) measures five dimen­sions of job satisfaction: satisfaction with (a) the type of work, (b) pay, (c) promotion opportunities, (d) supervision, and (e) satisfaction with co-workers. Also, the facets of the JDI can be combined additively to yield a total score. Past research (e.g. Johns, 1978; Schneider & Dachler, 1978; and Smith et.al., 1969) amply support the reliability and validity of the instrument.

Organisational Commitment. The two commitment scales developed by Meyer and Allen (1984) were used in the present study. Each eight item instrument, the Affective Commitment Scale (ACS) and the Continuance Commit­ment Scale (CCS), uses a seven-point Likert-type scale, ranging from "Strongly Disagree" to "Strongly Agree". Some items in each scale are reverse scored and then the eight items are averaged to yield a scale score. The ACS consists of items such as, "I do not feel a strong sense of belonging to my organisation" and "This organisation has a great deal of personal meaning for me". The CCS con­tains items such as, "Right now, staying with my organisa­tion is a matter of necessity as much as desire" and "I feel I have too few options to consider leaving this organisa­tion". The authors have reported a correlation of -.01 between the two scales suggesting that they are inde­pendent constructs. Reliability estimates (coefficient alpha) for the present sample were .74 (ACS) and .83 (CCS).

Withdrawal Intentions. Two questions were used to measure withdrawal intent. The first question asked, "How likely are you to voluntarily leave this organisation (i.e. quit your current job) for reasons like: more money or more prestige in another organisation, or problems with your current leadership/administration, better working condi­tions elsewhere, etc.?" The second question was, "How actively are you currently searching for other job oppor­tunities for reasons like the ones listed above?" Each item was answered on a 7 point Likert scale, ranging from 1 (not at all likely/actively) to 7 (very likely/actively). The two items were averaged to yield a single measure of intent (alpha = .77).

Procedure

Questionnaires were distributed in the company cafeteria during the employees' lunch break by the researcher and the Assistant Director of Personnel. In addition to the questionnaires, cover letters were attached from the re-

20 Management Research News Volume 15 Number 10 1992

searcher, explaining the study and assuring confidentiality, and from the organisation's Personnel Director, express­ing organisational support and encouraging participation. Employees were asked to complete the instruments at their earliest convenience and return them to the re­searchers who remained on the premises throughout the day. Although demographic data were requested, individ­ual forms were not identifiable. Completed questionnaires were scored according to published protocols of the scales utilised.

Results

Correlational Analysis

In order to assess the independence of the commitment constructs, the ACS and CCS were correlated. Results were consistent with those of Meyer and Allen (1984), in that the two scales were uncorrelated (r = .03). Further analyses revealed significant correlations between each subscale of the JDl and both measures of commitment (see Table 1); however, the relationships differed markedly depending on the type of commitment being measured. Specifically, scores on the ACS showed significant positive correlations with each subscale of the JDl with all .exceed­ing probability values of 0.001, whereas CCS and JDl subscale comparisons yielded negative correlations, generally smaller in magnitude than those of JDl and ACS comparisons, but all exceeding probability values of 0.05. The same pattern of relationships was found correlating the total score on the JDl with the commitment scales.

Examination of turnover intentions revealed similar differences related to commitment. As expected, scores on the ACS were inversely correlated with the measure of intention (r = -.35, p<.001). Furthermore, the relationship between the CCS and the intention measure was not significant (r = -.06).

Hierarchical Multiple Regression

Multiple regression was used to explore intention to turn­over. Demographic variables were entered in step one to account for variance in turnover associated with age, gen­der, and tenure. Though age explained a significant amount of variance, gender and tenure did not.

After controlling for demographics, affective commit­ment (step two) and job satisfaction (step three) each explained a significant portion of the remaining variance (Table 2). The final variable entered, continuance commit­ment did not add significantly to the equation's predictive power.

Table 2 Hierarchical Multiple Regression Analysis

Criterion Measure: Intention to Voluntarily Turnover (Intent)

Predictor 1.Age

Sex Years in organisation

2. Affective Commitment 3. Job Satisfaction 4. Continuance

Commitment

R2

.12

.20

.29

.30

R2

.00

.08

.09

.01

p

.0006

.0002

.0001

.08

Discussion

The present study sought to further understand voluntary employee turnover. Though declining job satisfaction and organisational commitment are readily mentioned as pre­cursors to attrition, the nature of these concepts is often elusive. Recent research is pointing to a need to separate organisational commitment into at least two differing con­ceptions. These differential views have been shown to impact various organisational variables in divergent ways.

The traditional concept of organisational commitment is one of an affective response, which suggests a positive

Table 1 Correlations, Means, and Standard Deviations

Measure 1. ACS 2. CCS 3. JDIw 4. JDIs 5. JDIc 6. JDIpr 7. JDlpa 8.JDI 9. Int

1

1.00 .03 .47 .26 .34 .38 .28 .49

-.35

2

1.00 -.23 -.16 -.12 -.20 -.23 -.29 -.06

3

1.00 .30 .42 .38 .24 .64

-.25

4

1.00 .27 .43 .38 .72

-.24

5

1.00 .25 .25 .59

-.22

6

1.00 .41 .77

-.34

7

1.00 .69

-.30

8

1.00 -.39

9

1.00

M

5.21 4.73

32.17 38.23 34.95 17.31 31.03

153.55 3.34

SD

.87 1.11

11.13 13.80 11.13 16.86 14.72 46.95

1.90

Note: ACS: Affective Commitment Scale; CCS Continuance Commitment Scale; JDI: Job Description Index; (subscales: w: work; s: supervisor; c: coworkers; pr: promotion; pa: pay); int: intention; to: turnover p< .05 p<.01

Management Research News Volume 15 Number 10 1992 21

feeling by the employee toward the organisation. Affective commitment was found to be associated with increased job satisfaction and decreased turnover intentions, thus providing substantial support for Hypothesis 1. Conti­nuance commitment, however, was associated with de­creased job satisfaction and showed a weak, non-significant, negative relationship with turnover inten­tions, providing only partial suffort for Hypothesis 2. This finding is not terriby surprising given that continuance commitment is based on the perception of few alternatives and a high personal sacrifice associated with leaving, such as may be evident during an economic downturn. In other words, the employee may feel trapped in the organisation. It would seem, then, that turnover intentions may be most effectively decreased by incorporating those management practices which are believed, or have been demonstrated, to increase affective commitment. This strategy should be appropriate regardless of the economic conditions.

Continuance commitment presents a more uncertain picture of turnover than does affective commitment. Indi­viduals scoring high in continuance commitment report that they stay with the organisation because the perceived cost of leaving is too high, or there is a scarcity of job alternatives. However, the relationship with turnover inten­tions implies that although they do not intend to leave, neither do they intend to remain. Thus, voluntary turnover is not likely among these employees in a slow economy, but probably needs to be addressed during economic prosperity when alternative employment options are more plentiful.

Whereas affective commitment showed positive correlations with each facet of job satisfaction, conti­nuance commitment revealed negative correlations with each facet. Therefore, although continuance commitment may keep the employee in the organisation, it may be accompanied by lowered levels of job satisfaction, which could have negative organisational outcomes.

Generally, as employees get older and increase their years in an organisation they become less likely to volun­tarily leave. Therefore, these variables were controlled before examining the predictive power of commitment and satisfaction. Both affective commitment and job satisfac­tion were significant predictors of turnover intentions after accounting for the variance associated with these demo­graphic variables, thus supporting Hypothesis 3.

These findings have clear implications for organisa­tional leadership. The necessity for leaders to obtain the affective commitment of those whose behaviours are necessary to implement new procedures, and goals, is emphasised by the findings of this study. Although the need for commitment is ordinarily recognised during periods of change and transition, it is often ignored during periods of relative calm and stability. These results suggest the need to closely monitor the level of workers' affective commitment during these stable times so that subtle

changes in the levels of affective commitment do not serve to undermine organisational goals.

Two commitment constructs are important in explor­ing voluntary turnover: affective commitment and conti­nuance commitment. Employees may exhibit both types of commitment but are likely to be dominant in the ex­pression of one. The implications of the present research is that a sensitivity to types of commitment may be helpful in maximising job satisfaction, and in reducing voluntary, avoidable turnover.

22 Management Research News Volume 15 Number 10 1992

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