or « the challenges of air transport by 2050€¦ · • freight drones could move towards total...

or« The challenges of air transport by 2050 »

(Alain GARCIA)

Objectives of the Foresight Commission

• To reflect on the challenges facing civil air transport by 2050, calling on:

• Academy members

• Other experts from aviation and space sectors

• To issue recommendations

• Initial report published in June 2011 (for Paris air show)

• Conference 2nd quarter 2012, followed by consolidated report

AAE-FC Alain Garcia25/01/2013

Thematic areas (sectors)

• Demographics, Society, Economics

• Market Volume

• Aircraft Manufacture

• Energy

• Environment

• Operating structures

• Air Traffic Management (ATM)

• Quality of Service (including Security)

• Contribution of Space to Aviation

Original approach: inter-sectoral study


Market Volume

A new approach to the market (passengers) for 3 reasons:

- current forecasts optimistic as regards long-term trends

- correlation between air passenger turnover and world GDP

- integrating air traffic into all journeys (passengers)


•Demographics

source: UN/ESA World Population Prospects

The 2010 revision - Medium variant

Populations From now to 2100: 10

billionsEurope decreasing after

2020North America still growingAsia decreasing after 2050Africa almost 1/3 of the

world!

AAE-FC Alain Garcia

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

1950

1970

1990

2010

2030

2050

2070

2090

WORLD

europe

africa

north america

south america

central america

ANZ

asia

25/01/2013

SocietyUrbanisation and Megalopolises

Urban population

AAE-FC Alain Garcia

—

1 000 000

2 000 000

3 000 000

4 000 000

5 000 000

6 000 000

7 000 000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

World

Africa

Asia

Europe

Latin America and the Caribbean

Northern America

25/01/2013

2 – MODEL FOR SCHEDULED TRAFFIC

1 – Bases for models- air traffic integrated into all passenger journeys

(in competition with other modes of transport for trips < 1000 km,

in a quasi monopoly situation for routes > 1000 km)

- traffic unit (all modes of transport): proportional to GDP per person.

- ratio of global passenger air transport turnover to GDP

)..2010.$...(

)2010.$..()/...()(

kmpassengerperecinpriceticket

ecinGDPGDPOTAviaratioPKTTraffic

with: - cf graph:

- evolution in GDP indicated below

- ticket price reflecting cost-effectiveness measures and oil prices

)2010(03,01,085,0%)/( TeinGDPratio


2 – MODEL FOR SCHEDULED TRAFFIC1 - Model Bases:

- evolution of global GDP (World Bank): economic conditions for 2010, multiplying factor of:

3.1 observed between 1970 and 2010 (2.9% on average per year)

3.0 forecast between 2010 and 2050 (2.8% on average per year)

Evolution du PIB mondial

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

année

Md $

PIB cec PIB ce 2010 PIB modèle ce 2010


CEPII

AAE-FC Alain Garcia

‐3,00

‐2,00

‐1,00

0,00

1,00

2,00

3,00

4,00

5,00

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

2012

2016

2020

2024

2028

2032

2036

2040

2044

2048

World GDP growth %per year since 1980

% per year(source WB+ CEPII)

%per year since 1980

yearly

25/01/2013

2050/2010

x3 or 2.8% y

The relative weight of GDP in different zones is important for the traffic

Europe

AAE-FC Alain Garcia

0,00

5,00

10,00

15,00

20,00

25,00

30,00

35,00

40,00

45,00

Arab World

Australasie

Europe

Am Sud

Am Nord

China World

AFN

ASIE SE

India World

Japon

CentrAm

Russ monde

AF SE

GDP en % GDP WORLD

source World Bank + CEPII

NorthAmerica

China world

25/01/2013

2 - MODEL FOR SCHEDULED TRAFFIC

Répartition du PIB

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

années

part du PIB mondial en %

A du N réalisations Europe réalisations Asie Pac réalisations

A du N prévisions WB Europe prévisions WB Asie Pac prévisions WB

A du N extraolation 2050 Europe extrapolation 2050 Asie Pac extrapolation 2050

- geographic spread according to "WB+CEPII" till 2030 and by

extrapolation between 2030 and 2050; a relative slowdown of Europe

is obvious with an average growth of around 1%



1 - Model Bases

- Ratio of global passenger air transport turnover to GDP

The ratio represents around 0.85 of GDP. This result can be observed:

- on a global scale,

- on a regional scale.

These figures were provided by Boeing.

Evolution du ratio Chiffre d'Affaires "Passager" / PIB

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

année

%

Pas Rev / PIB modèle



- Ticket price in $ / km / pax

- average value = turnover / PKT in 2010

• multiplication by 0.6 between 1970 and 2010 (-1.3% per year)

• model taking into account improved cost effectiveness and the changing

price of petrol

Evolution du prix du billet en$ / km / passager

0

0,02

0,04

0,06

0,08

0,1

0,12

0,14

0,16

0,18

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

année

$

cec ce 2010 modèle ce 2010


3 – RESULTS

2010Observation

(model)

2030Boeing (model)

2050Estimated (model)

Hypotheses Income comp. % of GDP

World GDP in giga $2010

Europe GDP in %

Oil price (barrel in $)

0,79 (0,78)

56 (57)

33%

80 (80)

0,825

(170)

(24,6%)

(130)

(0,85)(170)

(17,5%)(250)

World trafficTraffic (in Trillion RPK)

Average distance (km)

Number of flights (1000)

Average capacity (seats)

4,9 (4,8)

1850(1860)

27000 (26000)

120 (120)

13,3 (9,5)

(2000)

(50000)

(145)

(14,9)

(2300)

(52000)

(150)

European trafficTraffic (in Trillion RPK) 1,4 (2,15) (2,25)

2 - Evolution in traffic

* the low level of traffic in Europe is due to:- limited GDP growth (1% per year),- competition from ground transport (high-speed rail)


3 – Result in Initial Report (2011)

3 – Yearly «passenger» traffic in RPK:

Evolution du trafic "passagers"

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

giga PKT

constat modèle prévisions Boeing prévisions Airbus

From 2000 to 2010, real traffic (and GV forecast) are lower

than industrial forecast


Distribution of air traffic per region

*

* 2009 distribution used as reference

*


3 – RESULTS4 - Evolution in deliveries (airliners)• Please note:• - strong fluctuations due to economic disturbance exacerbated by players' actions

(airlines and manufacturers)• - impact of forecast traffic growth hypotheses.

livraisons annuelles

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

années

avions constat modèle 2010 prévisions Boeing


AIRCRAFT MANUFACTURE


Aircraft manufacture theme

The Fleet in 2050

• Due to current fleet replacement level and properties of alternative solutions, planes flying in 2050 will be similar to current planes although with the following advantages:

– progress in propulsion systems

– drag reduction due mainly to increased fineness ratio

– weight reduction.

• The 2050 fleet will carry 3 times more PKT than in 2010 – for a doubling of fuel consumption

– for an overall noise energy level lower than today

– with nitrogen dioxide emissions close to current rates.

25/01/2013 AAE-FC Alain Garcia

Aerodynamic efficiency asymptotic trend

20

SR TP SR TF MR LR VLA

Laminar 2,9 3,2 2,9 3,0 3,2

Induced 3,8 3,4 5,3 5,8 7,7

Parasitic 4,9 5,0 1,2 2,1 0,4

Compressibility 0 1,7 2,7 2,9 3,8Total 11,6 13,2 12,1 13,8 15,1

L/D ref 13,8 14,6 18,0 21,7 20,8L/D improved 15,6 16,8 20,5 25,2 24,5

Drag Improvement Typical cruise condition %

Potential Cruise Drag Improvement

• Laminar : could affect 10% of cruise drag

30% of potential assumed ~ 3%

• Induced : selection of a 20% higher aspect ratio

• Parasitic: work harder

• Compressibility: improved profile and thinner profile

12 to 15% lift over drag ratio potential improvementAAE-FC Alain Garcia25/01/2013

Relative evolution of empty weight Asymptotic trend

21

OWE Improvement Tendancy GV

0,70

0,80

0,90

1,00

1,10

1,20

1,30

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

YEAR EIS

OW

E (YEA

R)/O

WE(2

000)


Specific fuel consumption by enginesAsymptotic trend

22AAE-FC Alain Garcia

SFC EVOLUTION 100 kN THRUST CLASSMach 0,78 31000 ft

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

YEAR EIS

SF

C lb

m/lb

f/h

r

Turbofan

Open Rotor

25/01/2013

Aeronautics construction themeThe fleet in 2050

Improved aircraft performance, ATM and operations will

enable a drop in consumption for an average fleet in the order of 35% per PKT

Technological effects: 25 to 26% gain from fleet renewal (asymptotic gains around 45%, 8% weight, 12.5% drag, 25% specific fuel consumption engines and optimisation

configuration)

Effects from ATM and operations: 3 %

Effects from passenger load factor: 10 %


Evolution in characteristic parameters

24

Capacity Stage length Fuel efficiency


Estimated fuel consumption per segment

AAE-FC Alain Garcia

Quantity of fuel consumed*(Mt)

Incorporates a navigation coefficicient improvement

25/01/2013

Reduced speed effect

26

Short range Turbofan / TurboProp Block fuel comparison

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

0,45 0,55 0,65 0,75 0,85 0,95

Cruise Mach number

BF

120

0 N

M

TP

TF

80%

34%

24%

Similar trend will affect medium and long range aircraft.Similar effect will result from cruise altitude optimisation.


Futuristic concepts

27

Boeing Sugar RayH2 Lapcat Mach 5

Bauhaus Munchen Dr Mirko Hornung

These « promising futuristic » concepts have been presented for 50 yearsNone have passed the « TRL0.5 » milestone. Why?


Emerging concepts

December 2nd 2011 28AAE CP Aircraft Manufacturing ADB

AAE-FC Alain Garcia 25/01/2013

Technological evolutions will not be revolutions

• Greater use will be made of automated systems and their enhancement as well as the notion of a ground management team for decision support

– This does not signify total automation

– Radical change in task sharing between ground and air

• Freight drones could move towards total automation. Interest studies should be launched rapidly.

• Satellite Navigation and Telecommunications systems will continue to be developed and used more and more by aeronautics

– Convergence of space systems, exploration of new possibilities, pursuit of research and experimentation


Aeronautics construction theme

Maintaining know-how

• The European aeronautics industry – must consolidate training of its engineers/technicians/pilots through a

continuous recruitment policy reinforcing educational branches, rather than using the current "stop and go" system based on short term optimisation of EBITs

– must continue its quest for innovation and cost effectiveness in order to increase competitiveness within a context of ever stiffer global competition

• The European aeronautics industry must seek to minimise/optimise aeronautic technology transfers used today

– to sell planes

– to cut costs by offshoring production.

• The European aeronautics industry must be able to work on the basis of fair competition as to state subsidies and grants.


ENERGY


Jet fuel availability vs AAE predicted consumption

Jet fuel production today represents about 6% of crude oil production Assuming crude oil production remains constant and jet fuel/crude oil ratio can reach 10%, consumption as predicted by AAE would be covered up to 2030‐2040+

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1990 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Millions o

f tonnes o

f crude oil per y

ear

Consumption

2000

10% ofproduction

EIA, BP

Peak‐Campbell

2002

Production uncertainty

Consumption forecast

AAE:2050 = 2010 x 2

Scatteraccording to

sources for 2030

2.15

4.3

6.45

8.6

12.9

Mb/day



0

100

200

300

400

500

700

800

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Millions o

f tonnes p

er y

ear

Peak-Campbell 2002

600

8,6

10,8

12,0

Mbl/dConsumptionuncertainties

Consumption IATA

Consumption forecastAAE:

2050 = 2010 x 2

.

Kerosene production:10% of crude

Uncertainty range for 2030

IEABP

Total production uncertainty

More probable production

Possible date for beginning of penury


0

100

200

300

400

500

700

800

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

millions o

f tonnes p

er

year

Peak-Campbell 2002

Kerosene production12% of crude

Uncertainty range for 2030

IEABP

Production global uncertainty

Consumption forecastAAE:

2050 = 2010 x 2

Consumptionuncertainties

Consumption IATA

600


8,6

10,8

12,0

Mbl/d

A modification in refining techniques enabling production to be increased to 12% of oil would put the risk of penury back ten or so years.

More probable production

Possible date for beginning of penury


Energy will be scarce and expensive

• In order to avert a potentially major crisis for aviation in

the long run, it is crucial to set up a consulting

Observatory early enough:

– to assess the availability of kerosene and its substitutes at a

reasonable price*

* The laws of the market will lead to production decisions which

will have to precede needs.

– involving all players, from geologists to airlines:

E.g.: IATA with oil companies


ENVIRONMENT


CO2 Emissions Reduction Roadmap

20502020

TechOpsInfra

No action

NCG (Neutral Carbon Growth) / 2020

2030 2040

-50% by 2050

CO2emissions

2010

Business as usual emissions

Aircraft technology (known), operations and infrastructure measures

Biofuels and additional technology

Carbon-neutral growth 2020

Gross emissions trajectory

Economic measures

Biofuels + Tech

(schematic)

Source: IATA

The environment


Environmental demands will not be met simply through technical progress (1)

• Increased demands environmental efficiency will be an important key to competitiveness gas and noise emissions will have to be reduced

• Despite slower traffic growth than forecast, technological progress alone will not make it possible to meet the different bodies' goals: neutral carbon growth by 2020 and 50% fewer CO2 emissions by 2050

– Alternative fuels, used in a realistic way, will not be enough to fill in the gap

– As a complement, carbon compensation mechanisms are being studied by the authorities.


Accident rates must be reduced

• For the absolute number of accidents not to go up, the accident rate must be cut by 4 by 2050.

– Regional rates must be brought progressively up to the best level

– All stakeholders and the various links in the chain must be associated with safety goals, with equivalent certification processes.

• Transnational agencies should be created (e.g. EASA)

– Need for an internationally recognised body charged with technical investigations, the conclusions of which would serve as a basis for possible legal proceedings.

• A body which would work with NTSB, BEA and similar authorities from the main regions


Complementary viewpoint of operating structures

• Necessary extensions to airports should be anticipated as soon as possible

• An airport's limits should be conceived in terms of ecological footprint and not numbers of flights

• Policies should be implemented to maintain competitiveness and fair competition in air transport, with environmental reciprocity, no extra taxes and no deregulation without social minima


Congestion of infrastructures will call for a reassessment of priorities

– technical progress should be combined with institutional evolution, alternative methods of funding and more efficient work organisation

– the single entity controlling the air traffic network set up by the EU must manage demand AND capacity and have real authority; it should have access to all information on traffic and capacities and more sophisticated weather forecasting tools

– a research programme focusing on airspace and traffic flow management must also be promoted and should contain a sizeable aeronautics meteorology component, as well as an industrial research programme on fundamental techniques (ground to air links and information loop).

– All management should be made more efficient and studies launched into priorities in the event of congestion.


Anti-terrorist measures will need to be reinforced, whilst respecting individual liberties

• Harmonise regulations and security checks on a European and international level, for all public transport

• Make controls reliable but less disruptive and intrusive, respecting the traveller's intimacy, privacy and dignity

• Reflections must be launched into security from the point of view of ethics and individual liberties


Quality of service must be significantly improved

– A charter for passengers treatment should be rapidly drawn up, detailing their rights in terms of quality of service on ground and onboard, and monitored by ad hoc instances.

– All air transport players must be required to provide passengerswith clear, comprehensive, customised information, particularly during disruptions.

– Greater use of automated systems for communicating with passengers must not rule out human interfaces, which are better adapted to cultural differences and can help and reassurepassengers in all circumstances.

– The issue of baggage handling (which leaves all stakeholders unsatisfied) should be rethought.


Summary of proposals

• 1. Growth in traffic will doubtless be lower than predicted by the main airlines and manufacturers, with a tripling of activity only by 2050.

• 2. Technological evolutions will not usually be revolutions; they will bring about a reduction in consumption for an average fleet of around 35% per PKT, with greater use of automated systems and satellite navigation and telecommunications systems.

• 3. Measures must be taken to maintain European know-how and make commercial regulations fairer.

• 4. Energy will be scarce and expensive; a monitoring centre must be set up to ensure its availability and the emergence of alternative sources.

• 5. Environmental demands will not be met simply through technical progress.


Summary of proposals (cont.)

• 6. Accident rates must be divided by 4 with fewer disparities between continents.

• 7. Airlines must adapt their business model.

• 8. Congestion of infrastructures will make it necessary to re-assess utilisation priorities, and space will play a more important role.

• 9. The fight against terrorist actions will need to be reinforced, whilst respecting individual liberties.

• 10. Service quality must be significantly improved for passengers and freight, respecting a quality charter that has yet to be created.


Air and Space Academy


30-31 May 2012HÔTEL DE RÉGION MIDI-PYRÉNÉESTOULOUSE - FRANCEAcadémie de l'Air et de l'EspaceAir and Space Academywww.air-space-academy.org

International Conference

Objectives: Submit this work in progress to

international expert opinion (including American)

ResultsWhat remains to be done:

1) Conference proceedings on AAE website October 2012.

2) FC report: early 2013. AAE Dossier: mid 2013.

3) Submission of recommendations to policy makers.

4) Phase II activities of FC:

Take into account effects of more radical hypotheses for evolution (economic scenarios such as China's entrance as a player in aircraft manufacturing).

Take into account technical advances such as:

– The contribution of full electrification

– New materials (nanotechnologies for instance).

– The contribution of biofuels.

– New configurations.


THANK YOU FOR

YOUR ATTENTION


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