options to manage electricity demand and increase capacity in santa delano county
DESCRIPTION
Options to Manage Electricity Demand and Increase Capacity in Santa Delano County. Lin’s Lackeys. Jon Cook Jeff Kessler Gabriel Lade Geoff Morrison. Project Overview. Assess options available to Santa Delano Electric Company (SDEC) to handle load growth and increased EV penetration - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Options to Manage Electricity Demand
and Increase Capacity in
Santa Delano County
Jon CookJeff Kessler
Gabriel LadeGeoff MorrisonLin
’s La
ckey
s
Project OverviewAssess options available to Santa Delano Electric Company (SDEC) to handle load growth and increased EV penetration
Options Assessed New transmission & distribution infrastructure Demand response & time-varying pricing Controlled EV charging Battery storage
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Benefits of EV Adoption California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard $42 million to $420 million in revenue
$20 to $200 per LCFS credit
External Benefits $109 to $263 from reductions in criteria pollutants
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Summary of Recommendations1. Expand grid to accommodate population
growth
2. $20 per month surcharge for L2 chargers
3. Install smart meters
4. Increase grid reliability w/ battery storage (450MWh)
5. Use dynamic pricing
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Implementation Impacts1. Rate change of $0.00/kWh to $0.002/kWh
2. Grid expansion costs: $66 million (if all EV load shifted)
3. EV Load shift program: $682 million in costs entirely offset by $20 per month surcharge
4. Install smart meters: $219 million in savings
5. Improved grid reliability: $124 million in savings
6. Dynamic pricing: $65 million in savings
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Costs of Load Growth Problem: Load growth from increasing population and increased EV penetration. Solutions: Install controlled level 2 chargers for EVs;
Dynamic pricing (CPP, TOU, or RTP).
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Peak Load Growth Scenarios
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2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
7000
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Population Only Max EV and Population (Level 1) 5% Load GrowthCEC Load Growth Max EV and Population (Level 2)
Peak
Cap
acity
(MW
)
EV Load Shift (Level 2)
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-1000000
1000000
3000000
5000000
7000000
9000000Shifted EV Load Average Load
Time of Day
Pow
er L
oad
(kW
)
-1000000
1000000
3000000
5000000
7000000
9000000BAU EV Load Average Load
Time of Day
Pow
er L
oad
(kW
)
Cost of Shifting Load Free level 2 chargers that let utility control charge times Costs recovered by $20/month surcharge on level 2 charger owners
Monthly surcharge mitigates equity concerns
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Costs of Load Growth by 2030Cost projections of grid expansion: Due to population growth: $66 million (Range: $32-202 million)
Due to population + EV growth: All Level 2: $692 million Controlled Level 2: $66 million
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Demand Response Average load impact of 0.005 to 0.006 kW/household
Dynamic Pricing pilot suggests $7M in annual savings for SDEC $65M
Conduct additional pilots Compare impacts of RTP with TOU and CPP
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Battery Storage and Smart Meters Smart meters save money Non-smart meters cost $430 million Smart meters cost $211 million
450 MWh of battery storage offers increased reliability Saves rate payers up to $392 million
Costs rate payers $268 million
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Summary of Recommendations1. Expand grid to accommodate population
growth
2. $20 per month surcharge for L2 chargers
3. Install smart meters
4. Increase grid reliability w/ battery storage
5. Use dynamic pricing
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Questions?
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Summary of Costs
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Determining EV Adoption
Vehicle Purchase Model Projected vehicle use 9% turnover rate per year
EV Diffusion Model Modeled after HEV uptake in SF
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Electric Vehicle Adoption
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Diffusion Curves
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EV Load Profile
Charging follows a normal distribution
87% of charging between 5 and 8 pm Average charge for 23 miles of daily travel
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Seasonal Loads in SDEC Territory
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Temperature vs. Wholesale Price
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Cost of Load Growth Detail Assume expansion of load up to 5% requires expansion of substations and transformers.
Assume expansion beyond 5% requires new substations and transformers as well as upgrades to lines and feeders.
Use data provided by Ms. Alesia Gonzales and yearly projections of demand growth to calculate discounted sum of expansion costs, assuming upgrades undertaken as needed.
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Cost of Load Growth Detail (cont.)
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$/MW System Peak Mean St. DevAverage Capital
CostsSubstation/Transformers $43,064 $18,903
Lines/Feeders $237,644 $100,906Marginal Capital
CostsSubstation/Transformers $91,062 $94,919
Lines/Feeders $447,964 $589,524Average O&M
CostsSubstation/Transformers $424 $306
Lines/Feeders $7,671 $4,470
Load Demand % Growth
Substation/Transformers & Lines/ Feeder %
Upgrades
Mean Costs Expanding
Yearly O&M Costs
1% 5% $238,933 $3,5882% 8% $382,293 $5,7413% 10% $477,867 $7,1774% 14% $669,013 $10,0475% 18% $860,160 $12,918
Modeling Long-Term Contracts Most of SDEC’s electricity comes from long-term contracts Use existing year of load and wholesale price data to simulate future load service costs
Contracts are good for a range of potential loads (avg. load for a given hour ± 1 std. dev.)
Price per kWh for contract is determined by avg. wholesale cost for that hour
If forecasted load is greater than max contract load, then extra power must be bought from wholesale market at spot price (vice versa for selling extra power)
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Modeling Long-Term Contracts
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Load (kW)
Contract coverage
For all hours h ending 01:00 – 00:00
Avg. Load in hour h
Y(+ 1 s.d.)
X(- 1 s.d.)
0
Contract provides Y, B-Y must be bought on wholesale market
B
A
Contract provides entire load (A)
Contract provides X, X-C is sold on wholesale market
C