options hawk daily market recap report 12-14-11.pdfoptions radar: tibco software calls see action...

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OPTIONS HAWK DAILY MARKET RECAP fSector Laggards Silver Solar Oil Exploration Stock Losers FSLR -19.85% SGI -14.5% LNG -10.95% JOY -10.9% IOC -9.5% KWK -7.85% PPO -7.88% Volatility Losers LNG COWN WCRX STP CRIS STI High Put Volume ABFS VIP EDMC RKT TSPT BCS FSL Bearish Options APKT MELA MTG ESTD SAP HON YUM BCS fSector Leaders Regional Banks REITs Pharma Stock Gainers LCC 8.1% VRTX 7% AVP 6.35% IDCC 4.45% ILMN 3.65% MBI 3.3% JCP 2.5% UAL 2.5% Volatility Gainers ALXA HDY FSLR AMR SFLY SGI High Call Volume CM GFI ADTN SFLY CFX VRX Bullish Options AGCO AVP OC JCI MPEL KGC BTU TIBX Market Review: Stocks continued to slide on European fears with Bond Yields back on the rise and the Euro continuing to trade weak. The news was fairly light, but stocks slowly trended lower throughout the day with commodity stocks once again feeling the brunt of the selling, sharp moves lower in both Gold and Oil. Stocks have continued to see outflows, and it will be an active overnight session with China PMI and then a Spanish Bond Auction and Eurozone data in the morning, as well as US Economic Data tomorrow. The S&P has pulled back to Fibonacci Support at 1,210 which could be a springboard for a move higher, but we still are in need of some positive news, as all the overseas headlines have been negative and the potential for a Eurozone deep recession seems to gain steam every day. S&P 20 Day Chart: Resistance Support 1,260 1,210 1,290 1,200 1,320 1,180 Options Action and Trends: The one theme clear today was that traders were stepping in to buy the weakness in Gold and Gold Miners, with call buying in KGC and GDXJ. Otherwise, although put premium was heavier than normal, not a lot of size making bearish bets, while we are starting to see a lot more bullish risk reversals trade in size, so traders seeing downside limited in stocks and positioned for a move higher, seen today in BWA, ADTN, TMO and a few others. Call buyers were active in FDX, WAG and TIBX ahead of upcoming earnings, while bearish action surfaced in APKT, CLF, BCS and CVX. What's On Tap: China Flash PMI Overnight, Eurozone Flash PMI Tomorrow, Italian Bond Auction. Empire Manufacturing, Philly Fed, Industrial Production. Earnings from FDX, ACN, ADBE, and HEI. Trade Tracker Portfolio Changes: 1. Opened WFM Jan. 70 Calls at $1.50 (Spotlight Trade) 2. Closed VRX Equity at $43.85

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Page 1: OPTIONS HAWK DAILY MARKET RECAP Report 12-14-11.pdfOPTIONS RADAR: Tibco Software Calls See Action After Sell Tibco Software (WIBX) shares have been under heavy selling pressure th

OPTIONS HAWK DAILY MARKET RECAP

fSector Laggards

Silver

Solar

Oil Exploration

Stock Losers

FSLR -19.85%

SGI -14.5%

LNG -10.95%

JOY -10.9%

IOC -9.5%

KWK -7.85%

PPO -7.88%

Volatility Losers

• LNG

• COWN

• WCRX

• STP

• CRIS

• STI

High Put Volume

• ABFS

• VIP

• EDMC

• RKT

• TSPT

• BCS

• FSL

Bearish Options

• APKT

• MELA

• MTG

• ESTD

• SAP

• HON

• YUM

• BCS

fSector Leaders

Regional Banks

REITs

Pharma

Stock Gainers

LCC 8.1%

VRTX 7%

AVP 6.35%

IDCC 4.45%

ILMN 3.65%

MBI 3.3%

JCP 2.5%

UAL 2.5%

Volatility Gainers

• ALXA

• HDY

• FSLR

• AMR

• SFLY

• SGI

High Call Volume

• CM

• GFI

• ADTN

• SFLY

• CFX

• VRX

Bullish Options

• AGCO

• AVP

• OC

• JCI

• MPEL

• KGC

• BTU

• TIBX

Market Review: Stocks continued to slide on European fears with Bond Yields back

on the rise and the Euro continuing to trade weak. The news was fairly light, but

stocks slowly trended lower throughout the day with commodity stocks once again

feeling the brunt of the selling, sharp moves lower in both Gold and Oil. Stocks have

continued to see outflows, and it will be an active overnight session with China PMI

and then a Spanish Bond Auction and Eurozone data in the morning, as well as US

Economic Data tomorrow. The S&P has pulled back to Fibonacci Support at 1,210

which could be a springboard for a move higher, but we still are in need of some

positive news, as all the overseas headlines have been negative and the potential for a

Eurozone deep recession seems to gain steam every day.

S&P 20 Day Chart:

Resistance Support

1,260 1,210

1,290 1,200

1,320 1,180

Options Action and Trends: The one theme clear today was that traders were

stepping in to buy the weakness in Gold and Gold Miners, with call buying in KGC and

GDXJ. Otherwise, although put premium was heavier than normal, not a lot of size

making bearish bets, while we are starting to see a lot more bullish risk reversals trade

in size, so traders seeing downside limited in stocks and positioned for a move higher,

seen today in BWA, ADTN, TMO and a few others. Call buyers were active in FDX,

WAG and TIBX ahead of upcoming earnings, while bearish action surfaced in APKT,

CLF, BCS and CVX.

What's On Tap: China Flash PMI Overnight, Eurozone Flash PMI Tomorrow, Italian

Bond Auction. Empire Manufacturing, Philly Fed, Industrial Production. Earnings from

FDX, ACN, ADBE, and HEI.

Trade Tracker Portfolio Changes:

1. Opened WFM Jan. 70 Calls at $1.50 (Spotlight Trade)

2. Closed VRX Equity at $43.85

Page 2: OPTIONS HAWK DAILY MARKET RECAP Report 12-14-11.pdfOPTIONS RADAR: Tibco Software Calls See Action After Sell Tibco Software (WIBX) shares have been under heavy selling pressure th

OPTIONS RADAR: Tibco Software Calls See Action After Sell

Tibco Software (WIBX) shares have been under heavy selling pressure th

bought on the $1.40 offer in a multi-exchange sweep to open ahead of 12/21 earnings.

around this $23 level, although now below all major EMAs and SMAs.

trailing earnings, 22.2X forward, 4.66X sales and 23.95X cash flow and has been reporting strong earnings, seen as a

likely acquisition target in software. Mizuho started shares Neutral on 12

Outperfo

Trading Strategy: It is tough to step in front of the selling in TIBX here, and especially with the market showing weakness, Tech not

acting well lately. TIBX could be a target for ORCL, but not looking

Tibco Software Calls See Action After Sell-Off, Look for Earnings to Rally Shares

Ticker/Price: TIBX ($23.50)

Analysis:

shares have been under heavy selling pressure the last 2 days, but 1,600 January $24 calls

exchange sweep to open ahead of 12/21 earnings. Tibco shares have solid support

around this $23 level, although now below all major EMAs and SMAs. Tibco is a $4B software Co.

trailing earnings, 22.2X forward, 4.66X sales and 23.95X cash flow and has been reporting strong earnings, seen as a

Mizuho started shares Neutral on 12-8 with a $29 target, while JMP started

Outperform with a $33 target in November.

Hawk Vision:

It is tough to step in front of the selling in TIBX here, and especially with the market showing weakness, Tech not

acting well lately. TIBX could be a target for ORCL, but not looking to take a chance on it.

Off, Look for Earnings to Rally Shares

e last 2 days, but 1,600 January $24 calls

Tibco shares have solid support

Tibco is a $4B software Co. trading 43.25X

trailing earnings, 22.2X forward, 4.66X sales and 23.95X cash flow and has been reporting strong earnings, seen as a

8 with a $29 target, while JMP started

It is tough to step in front of the selling in TIBX here, and especially with the market showing weakness, Tech not

to take a chance on it.

Page 3: OPTIONS HAWK DAILY MARKET RECAP Report 12-14-11.pdfOPTIONS RADAR: Tibco Software Calls See Action After Sell Tibco Software (WIBX) shares have been under heavy selling pressure th

OPTIONS RADAR: Walgreen Co. Option Traders Active into Earnings, Bet on Upside

Walgreen (WAG) January $35 calls active again this morning with 4,770 trading, buyers, bu

against the $39 calls today, yesterday the spreads bought 12,000X and adding to the accumulation of those spreads in

Open Interest. Walgreens will report results on 12/21 before the open and shares have held up well the past week,

consolidating above its 20 and 50 day EMAs in a tight range.

and remain above. The $29.6B drug store Co. trades 10.75X earnings, 0.4X sales, 2X book and 16.6X cash flow with a

2.67% dividend yield. Shares have traded lower the last 3 earnings reports.

purchased this morning. Morgan Stanley cut shares to Underweight with a $29 target on 11

Trading Strategy: WAG has a poor recent history on earnings

Walgreen Co. Option Traders Active into Earnings, Bet on Upside

Ticker/Price: WAG ($33.66)

Analysis:

January $35 calls active again this morning with 4,770 trading, buyers, bu

against the $39 calls today, yesterday the spreads bought 12,000X and adding to the accumulation of those spreads in

Walgreens will report results on 12/21 before the open and shares have held up well the past week,

lidating above its 20 and 50 day EMAs in a tight range. The break past $33 also moved shares out of a downtrend

The $29.6B drug store Co. trades 10.75X earnings, 0.4X sales, 2X book and 16.6X cash flow with a

es have traded lower the last 3 earnings reports. More than $320,000 in call premium

Morgan Stanley cut shares to Underweight with a $29 target on 11

Hawk Vision:

WAG has a poor recent history on earnings moves, and I do not see a compelling reason to play the name long

into results this quarter.

Walgreen Co. Option Traders Active into Earnings, Bet on Upside

January $35 calls active again this morning with 4,770 trading, buyers, but not being spread

against the $39 calls today, yesterday the spreads bought 12,000X and adding to the accumulation of those spreads in

Walgreens will report results on 12/21 before the open and shares have held up well the past week,

The break past $33 also moved shares out of a downtrend

The $29.6B drug store Co. trades 10.75X earnings, 0.4X sales, 2X book and 16.6X cash flow with a

More than $320,000 in call premium

Morgan Stanley cut shares to Underweight with a $29 target on 11-21.

moves, and I do not see a compelling reason to play the name long

Page 4: OPTIONS HAWK DAILY MARKET RECAP Report 12-14-11.pdfOPTIONS RADAR: Tibco Software Calls See Action After Sell Tibco Software (WIBX) shares have been under heavy selling pressure th

OPTIONS RADAR: Yahoo Spreads Active as Trader Still See Likely Buyout in Early 2012

Yahoo (YHOO) trading large spreads with 10,000 January $21/$14 bull risk reversals at

of 10,000 January $17.50 calls paid the $0.30 offer earlier.

shares are 2.8% lower, but have price support near $14.70.

and is looking for offers. Shares trade 17.3X earnings, 3.7X sales and 33.5X cash flow, and many doubting it will see

Trading Strategy: We traded YHOO risk reversals for a nice gain a few weeks ago, a

and having my doubts as well for the potential upside, so not a trade I like unless I see more size buying upside calls.

Yahoo Spreads Active as Trader Still See Likely Buyout in Early 2012

Ticker/Price: YHOO ($15)

Analysis:

trading large spreads with 10,000 January $21/$14 bull risk reversals at a $0.59 credit.

of 10,000 January $17.50 calls paid the $0.30 offer earlier. Goldman resumed shares with a Sell this morning and

shares are 2.8% lower, but have price support near $14.70. Yahoo sees different reports every day on a looming

Shares trade 17.3X earnings, 3.7X sales and 33.5X cash flow, and many doubting it will see

much of a premium in a deal.

Hawk Vision:

We traded YHOO risk reversals for a nice gain a few weeks ago, and right now this saga is being dragged out,

and having my doubts as well for the potential upside, so not a trade I like unless I see more size buying upside calls.

Yahoo Spreads Active as Trader Still See Likely Buyout in Early 2012

a $0.59 credit. Also, a buyer

Goldman resumed shares with a Sell this morning and

Yahoo sees different reports every day on a looming buyout,

Shares trade 17.3X earnings, 3.7X sales and 33.5X cash flow, and many doubting it will see

nd right now this saga is being dragged out,

and having my doubts as well for the potential upside, so not a trade I like unless I see more size buying upside calls.

Page 5: OPTIONS HAWK DAILY MARKET RECAP Report 12-14-11.pdfOPTIONS RADAR: Tibco Software Calls See Action After Sell Tibco Software (WIBX) shares have been under heavy selling pressure th

OPTIONS RADAR: Kinross Gold C

Kinross Gold (KGC) block of 450,000 shares is sold below bid, while 10,000 February $12 call

$0.78, potentially a stock replacement play with the gold miner making 3 year lows.

earnings, 3.5X sales and 0.91X book value.

year end, and a global rush for liquidity, also the FOMC not giving any hints of QE3 yesterday.

miners are getting very cheap and oversold, so the potential for some M&A will increase, as the longer term future for

gold prices remains

Trading Strategy: KGC has a ton of Open Interest sitting in January calls, but these Junior Miners are getting crushed. I prefer to

stick with ABX or NEM, but think we need to give Gold time to base again.

Kinross Gold Calls See Surge in Action, Replacement Strategy

Ticker/Price: KGC ($11.55)

Analysis:

block of 450,000 shares is sold below bid, while 10,000 February $12 call

$0.78, potentially a stock replacement play with the gold miner making 3 year lows. The $13.8B miner trades 9.4X

earnings, 3.5X sales and 0.91X book value. Gold is under heavy selling pressure today as funds close out holdings int

year end, and a global rush for liquidity, also the FOMC not giving any hints of QE3 yesterday.

miners are getting very cheap and oversold, so the potential for some M&A will increase, as the longer term future for

gold prices remains very bullish.

Hawk Vision:

KGC has a ton of Open Interest sitting in January calls, but these Junior Miners are getting crushed. I prefer to

stick with ABX or NEM, but think we need to give Gold time to base again.

alls See Surge in Action, Replacement Strategy

block of 450,000 shares is sold below bid, while 10,000 February $12 calls are bought to open at

The $13.8B miner trades 9.4X

Gold is under heavy selling pressure today as funds close out holdings into

year end, and a global rush for liquidity, also the FOMC not giving any hints of QE3 yesterday. Many of these gold

miners are getting very cheap and oversold, so the potential for some M&A will increase, as the longer term future for

KGC has a ton of Open Interest sitting in January calls, but these Junior Miners are getting crushed. I prefer to

stick with ABX or NEM, but think we need to give Gold time to base again.

Page 6: OPTIONS HAWK DAILY MARKET RECAP Report 12-14-11.pdfOPTIONS RADAR: Tibco Software Calls See Action After Sell Tibco Software (WIBX) shares have been under heavy selling pressure th

OPTIONS RADAR: Acme Packet Leads Bearish Action as High Valuation Stocks Sell

Acme Packet (APKT) is trading 6,450 puts on the day, 2X daily with $1.9M in put premi

block of 3,500 February $32.50 puts bought on the $4.30 offer while the $37.50 puts also with some buyers at $7.30

offers. Shares continue to fail at its 50 day EMA on bounced and now struggling at the 20 day EMA, potential for

break of $30 and for shares to head to $25.

Outperform with a $45 target, while Mizuho cut its target to $28 on 12

47.5X earnings, 7.7X sales and 52X cash flow, and a tough market for growth stocks.

Trading Strategy: APKT is near the top of the top short ideas list and this action confirms, but with market very oversold, would

look or a move back to $35 to seek entry on t

Acme Packet Leads Bearish Action as High Valuation Stocks Sell

Ticker/Price: APKT ($32.40)

Analysis:

is trading 6,450 puts on the day, 2X daily with $1.9M in put premium purchased, mostly from a

block of 3,500 February $32.50 puts bought on the $4.30 offer while the $37.50 puts also with some buyers at $7.30

Shares continue to fail at its 50 day EMA on bounced and now struggling at the 20 day EMA, potential for

break of $30 and for shares to head to $25. Shares were higher initially this morning on a Morgan Keegan upgrade to

Outperform with a $45 target, while Mizuho cut its target to $28 on 12-1. Acme Packet remains rich on valuation at

sales and 52X cash flow, and a tough market for growth stocks.

Hawk Vision:

APKT is near the top of the top short ideas list and this action confirms, but with market very oversold, would

look or a move back to $35 to seek entry on the short side.

Acme Packet Leads Bearish Action as High Valuation Stocks Sell-Off

um purchased, mostly from a

block of 3,500 February $32.50 puts bought on the $4.30 offer while the $37.50 puts also with some buyers at $7.30

Shares continue to fail at its 50 day EMA on bounced and now struggling at the 20 day EMA, potential for a

Shares were higher initially this morning on a Morgan Keegan upgrade to

Acme Packet remains rich on valuation at

sales and 52X cash flow, and a tough market for growth stocks.

APKT is near the top of the top short ideas list and this action confirms, but with market very oversold, would

Page 7: OPTIONS HAWK DAILY MARKET RECAP Report 12-14-11.pdfOPTIONS RADAR: Tibco Software Calls See Action After Sell Tibco Software (WIBX) shares have been under heavy selling pressure th

OPTIONS RADAR: Option Traders Target Barclay's as

Barclay's (BCS) options action looks to be forecasting plenty of more problems with European banks, a buyer of

4,000 March 10/7 put spreads at $0.90 to open, and a buyer of the June 10/5 ratio put spread 4,000X8,000 at $1.25 to

open. More than $830,000 in put premium pu

recently stalled at familiar resistance of $12.50 and unusual that the Bank stocks are holding while the Euro prints new

lows. Barclay's market cap is $33B and trades 0.4X book and 0.8X cas

going to be forced to sell assets. Europe is looking a lot like the US did during the Financial crisis and look to be

stubborn to take the necessary action, so the Bank stocks could face plenty of more pain

Trading Strategy: BCS is holding up fairly well considering the worsening economy in Europe and these spreads may be protective,

so not looking to add it as a short at this point.

Option Traders Target Barclay's as Casualty in European Financial Crisis

Ticker/Price: BCS ($10.70)

Analysis:

options action looks to be forecasting plenty of more problems with European banks, a buyer of

4,000 March 10/7 put spreads at $0.90 to open, and a buyer of the June 10/5 ratio put spread 4,000X8,000 at $1.25 to

More than $830,000 in put premium purchased on the day and put volume of 21,000 is 15X daily.

recently stalled at familiar resistance of $12.50 and unusual that the Bank stocks are holding while the Euro prints new

Barclay's market cap is $33B and trades 0.4X book and 0.8X cash flow, but a lot of debt and European banks are

Europe is looking a lot like the US did during the Financial crisis and look to be

stubborn to take the necessary action, so the Bank stocks could face plenty of more pain

Hawk Vision:

BCS is holding up fairly well considering the worsening economy in Europe and these spreads may be protective,

so not looking to add it as a short at this point.

in European Financial Crisis

options action looks to be forecasting plenty of more problems with European banks, a buyer of

4,000 March 10/7 put spreads at $0.90 to open, and a buyer of the June 10/5 ratio put spread 4,000X8,000 at $1.25 to

rchased on the day and put volume of 21,000 is 15X daily. Shares

recently stalled at familiar resistance of $12.50 and unusual that the Bank stocks are holding while the Euro prints new

h flow, but a lot of debt and European banks are

Europe is looking a lot like the US did during the Financial crisis and look to be

stubborn to take the necessary action, so the Bank stocks could face plenty of more pain.

BCS is holding up fairly well considering the worsening economy in Europe and these spreads may be protective,

Page 8: OPTIONS HAWK DAILY MARKET RECAP Report 12-14-11.pdfOPTIONS RADAR: Tibco Software Calls See Action After Sell Tibco Software (WIBX) shares have been under heavy selling pressure th

OPTIONS RADAR: Trader Buys Calls in AGCO into Analyst Event for 2012 Guidance

Agco Corp (AGCO) is seeing fresh buying of 2,250 calls at the $2.10 offer, options that expire in 2 days, but playing

for an upside move with an Analyst Meeting on December 16th, and using ITM calls as shares bounce off the $40 area

and are oversold, down today partly due to Joy Global (JOY) weaker than expected results.

construction machinery Co. that is very cheap on valuation at 9.6X earnings, 0.5 PEG, 0.5X sales and 9.6X cash flow.

Jefferies reiterated a Buy and $55 target this morning ahead of the Analyst meeting.

be conservative as the Company historically guides low and beats/raises throughout the year

Trading Strategy: AGCO is a great value name at this level, and this trade has a very small window to be right, basically betti

positive 2012 guidance. It is a risky play if looking for a late week rally.

Trader Buys Calls in AGCO into Analyst Event for 2012 Guidance

Ticker/Price: AGCO ($41.50)

Analysis:

is seeing fresh buying of 2,250 calls at the $2.10 offer, options that expire in 2 days, but playing

for an upside move with an Analyst Meeting on December 16th, and using ITM calls as shares bounce off the $40 area

wn today partly due to Joy Global (JOY) weaker than expected results.

construction machinery Co. that is very cheap on valuation at 9.6X earnings, 0.5 PEG, 0.5X sales and 9.6X cash flow.

his morning ahead of the Analyst meeting. Jefferies expects 2012 guidance to

be conservative as the Company historically guides low and beats/raises throughout the year

Hawk Vision:

AGCO is a great value name at this level, and this trade has a very small window to be right, basically betti

positive 2012 guidance. It is a risky play if looking for a late week rally.

Trader Buys Calls in AGCO into Analyst Event for 2012 Guidance

is seeing fresh buying of 2,250 calls at the $2.10 offer, options that expire in 2 days, but playing

for an upside move with an Analyst Meeting on December 16th, and using ITM calls as shares bounce off the $40 area

wn today partly due to Joy Global (JOY) weaker than expected results. Agco is a $4.18B farm &

construction machinery Co. that is very cheap on valuation at 9.6X earnings, 0.5 PEG, 0.5X sales and 9.6X cash flow.

Jefferies expects 2012 guidance to

be conservative as the Company historically guides low and beats/raises throughout the year.

AGCO is a great value name at this level, and this trade has a very small window to be right, basically betting on

positive 2012 guidance. It is a risky play if looking for a late week rally.

Page 9: OPTIONS HAWK DAILY MARKET RECAP Report 12-14-11.pdfOPTIONS RADAR: Tibco Software Calls See Action After Sell Tibco Software (WIBX) shares have been under heavy selling pressure th

OPTIONS RADAR: Shutterfly Calls and Volatility Surge as Shares Hit Lows

Shutterfly (SFLY) is one of the leading Implied Volatility gainers today with IV30

more than 3,000 January $30 calls traded in what appeared to be opening sales.

with 4,587 trading against OI of 779, opening buyers paying $1.90 to $2.40 offers in size with $285,000 i

purchased on the day, the most bullish options action this name has seen and call volume 10X daily average.

have lost 50% in less than 2 months in a steep trend lower, and extreme oversold conditions.

58.75X earnings, 1.7 PEG, 2.3X sales and 1.5X book, and concerns have mounted on the new iPhone's Instagram

product cutting into business. Around 20% of the float is short, and Barclay's started shares Overweight in September

with a $73 target. Shutterfly announced improvements to it's iPhone App, and Morgan Stanley reiterated Overweight

with a $40 target this morning. Increased competition is hurting shares, but with a market cap under $855M now, you

wonder if Google (GOOG) could be interested in acquiring the

Trading Strategy: SFLY's break of $40 support has a measured move to $18.50, and yet to complete that move. These calls

hot today, but not the type of name to try long in the current weak tape, especially at its premium valuation and strong

Shutterfly Calls and Volatility Surge as Shares Hit Lows

Ticker/Price: SFLY ($23.90)

Analysis:

is one of the leading Implied Volatility gainers today with IV30 up 15.3% to 86.1% and a day after

more than 3,000 January $30 calls traded in what appeared to be opening sales. Today the January $25 calls are hot

with 4,587 trading against OI of 779, opening buyers paying $1.90 to $2.40 offers in size with $285,000 i

purchased on the day, the most bullish options action this name has seen and call volume 10X daily average.

have lost 50% in less than 2 months in a steep trend lower, and extreme oversold conditions.

arnings, 1.7 PEG, 2.3X sales and 1.5X book, and concerns have mounted on the new iPhone's Instagram

Around 20% of the float is short, and Barclay's started shares Overweight in September

ced improvements to it's iPhone App, and Morgan Stanley reiterated Overweight

Increased competition is hurting shares, but with a market cap under $855M now, you

wonder if Google (GOOG) could be interested in acquiring the Co. to boost its presence in this area

Hawk Vision:

SFLY's break of $40 support has a measured move to $18.50, and yet to complete that move. These calls

hot today, but not the type of name to try long in the current weak tape, especially at its premium valuation and strong

downtrend.

Shutterfly Calls and Volatility Surge as Shares Hit Lows

up 15.3% to 86.1% and a day after

Today the January $25 calls are hot

with 4,587 trading against OI of 779, opening buyers paying $1.90 to $2.40 offers in size with $285,000 in call premium

purchased on the day, the most bullish options action this name has seen and call volume 10X daily average. Shares

have lost 50% in less than 2 months in a steep trend lower, and extreme oversold conditions. The stock still trades

arnings, 1.7 PEG, 2.3X sales and 1.5X book, and concerns have mounted on the new iPhone's Instagram

Around 20% of the float is short, and Barclay's started shares Overweight in September

ced improvements to it's iPhone App, and Morgan Stanley reiterated Overweight

Increased competition is hurting shares, but with a market cap under $855M now, you

Co. to boost its presence in this area.

SFLY's break of $40 support has a measured move to $18.50, and yet to complete that move. These calls are

hot today, but not the type of name to try long in the current weak tape, especially at its premium valuation and strong

Page 10: OPTIONS HAWK DAILY MARKET RECAP Report 12-14-11.pdfOPTIONS RADAR: Tibco Software Calls See Action After Sell Tibco Software (WIBX) shares have been under heavy selling pressure th

OPTIONS RADAR: Thermo Fisher Bull

Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) with a bullish risk reversal in March 2012 options, the $45 calls bought 2,100X at

$2.68 and the $40 puts sold 2,100X at $1.60, net $1.08 debit.

lows at $43 from 2010, oversold on the daily chart.

earnings, 1.11X book and 14X free cash flow.

BofA reiterated a Buy and $61 target seeing the new EPA rules a positi

The Company announced a $750M buyback in October

Trading Strategy: TMO is a name to add to the Bull Watch, and we are starting to see more of these bullish risk reversals trade

the upside/downside in market is beginning to look favorable again, and traders are willing to be long value stocks at certai

Thermo Fisher Bull Risk Reversal Calls a Bottom in Shares

Ticker/Price: TMO ($43.90)

Analysis:

with a bullish risk reversal in March 2012 options, the $45 calls bought 2,100X at

$2.68 and the $40 puts sold 2,100X at $1.60, net $1.08 debit. Shares are making lows for 2011 and not far from support

lows at $43 from 2010, oversold on the daily chart. The $16.9B producer of medical instruments trades 9.45X forward

earnings, 1.11X book and 14X free cash flow. UBS reiterated a Buy in late October with a $60 reduced target and on 12

BofA reiterated a Buy and $61 target seeing the new EPA rules a positive catalyst for environmental monitoring tools.

The Company announced a $750M buyback in October.

Hawk Vision:

TMO is a name to add to the Bull Watch, and we are starting to see more of these bullish risk reversals trade

the upside/downside in market is beginning to look favorable again, and traders are willing to be long value stocks at certai

levels as is the case here.

Risk Reversal Calls a Bottom in Shares

with a bullish risk reversal in March 2012 options, the $45 calls bought 2,100X at

Shares are making lows for 2011 and not far from support

The $16.9B producer of medical instruments trades 9.45X forward

UBS reiterated a Buy in late October with a $60 reduced target and on 12-9

ve catalyst for environmental monitoring tools.

TMO is a name to add to the Bull Watch, and we are starting to see more of these bullish risk reversals trade, so

the upside/downside in market is beginning to look favorable again, and traders are willing to be long value stocks at certain price

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OPTIONS RADAR: Risk Reversal in Borg Warner Favors a Rebound in Shares

Borg Warner (BWA) trading 6X daily options volume as the January $75/$50 bull

$0.075 credits, willing to be long at $50 and wanting upside calls, although far OTM with shares at $62.

back near November lows, and sold off on big volume yesterday, recently topping out at $70.

automotive parts trades 12X earnings, 1X sales and 2.9X book value with 12.2% of the float short.

Outperform with a $90 target on 11-30. The Company recently sold its tire pressure monitoring business and also was

added to the S&P 500 on 12-8. Borg Warner delivered a beat and raise last quarter and all indications are that the auto

Trading Strategy: BWA is fairly attractive on valuation, and another name to keep on a buy list when market health improves, and

in 2012 will be looking to keep some stock holdings for longer swing trades (2 to 4 weeks).

Risk Reversal in Borg Warner Favors a Rebound in Shares

Ticker/Price: BWA ($62)

Analysis:

trading 6X daily options volume as the January $75/$50 bullish risk reversals trade 2,000X at

$0.075 credits, willing to be long at $50 and wanting upside calls, although far OTM with shares at $62.

back near November lows, and sold off on big volume yesterday, recently topping out at $70.

automotive parts trades 12X earnings, 1X sales and 2.9X book value with 12.2% of the float short.

The Company recently sold its tire pressure monitoring business and also was

Borg Warner delivered a beat and raise last quarter and all indications are that the auto

parts business remains strong.

Hawk Vision:

BWA is fairly attractive on valuation, and another name to keep on a buy list when market health improves, and

ll be looking to keep some stock holdings for longer swing trades (2 to 4 weeks).

Risk Reversal in Borg Warner Favors a Rebound in Shares

ish risk reversals trade 2,000X at

$0.075 credits, willing to be long at $50 and wanting upside calls, although far OTM with shares at $62. Shares are

back near November lows, and sold off on big volume yesterday, recently topping out at $70. The $7B maker of

automotive parts trades 12X earnings, 1X sales and 2.9X book value with 12.2% of the float short. RBC initiated

The Company recently sold its tire pressure monitoring business and also was

Borg Warner delivered a beat and raise last quarter and all indications are that the auto

BWA is fairly attractive on valuation, and another name to keep on a buy list when market health improves, and

ll be looking to keep some stock holdings for longer swing trades (2 to 4 weeks).

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EXTRA

Ross Stores (ROST) buyer of 1,000 February $100 calls at $1.58 yesterday

Melco Crown (MPEL) early bullish action with 2,000 January $7.50 calls bought on the offers at $1.55 and $1.60

Home Depot (HD) trades a block of 405,000 shares below bid and 8,050 February $42 calls bought at $0.63 in a spread

Fed-Ex (FDX) seeing buyers of December $80 calls into earnings with 3,080 trading, leading early bullish call flow, shares now down sharply

ahead of results and could see at least a run into the close.

Industrials (XLI) with around 40,600 December $32 puts rolled to 21,000 January $31 puts

Metals (XME) large roll of December $48 puts to January $47 puts 15,000X10,000

Materials (XLB) large roll of 25,000 December $32 puts to 24,000 January $21 puts

Kohl's (KSS) shares trying to move higher and 1,480 Jan 50 calls trading with buyers

Owens Corning (OC) block of 3,500 January $29 calls trade on $0.35 offer

Rockwell Collins (COL) opening sale of 1,500 January $50 puts at $1 bid, a willing long

Avon Products (AVP) block of 10,000 July $20 calls trade at $0.95 offer in buy-write

Peabody Energy (BTU) trades 3,000 January $36 calls at $1.10, tied to 105,000 shares of stock in a buy-write

Linear Tech (LLTC) trading 4X daily options volume with a buyer of 3,500 January 2012 $29 straddles for $2.60 to open on the AMEX. Linear

Tech shares are at a key level with $28.50 trend support, while $33 is resistance, and this trade looking for a move with above $31.60 or below

$26.40. Linear Tech pays a 3.3% dividend and trades 14.2X earnings, 1 PEG, 4.66X sales and 20.75X cash flow.

Junior Miners (GDXJ) January 24/27 call spread bought 4,000X at $1.45, and another 3,800 spreads also traded, while 9,400 February $26 calls

were rolled back to 9,400 January $24 calls, so option traders stepping into the small gold miners with shares moving well off the lows.

Pfizer (PFE) near day highs and breaking yesterday highs, good amount of Jan. 20 calls bought

Tiffany's (TIF) opening buy of 2,000 May $55 puts at $3.65 tied to a buy of 56,000 shares of stock

SkyWorks (SWKS) February $15/$16 calls active again with more than 4,000 trading, 60% offer side buys today

Rockwood Holding (ROC) shares at multi-month lows and 1,986 February $40 calls trading with buyers. The $2.95B chemicals Co. reports

strong earnings consistently and trades 9.1X earnings, 0.8X sales and 2.14X book value.

MBIA (MBI) January 14/16 call spread trades 10,000X at $0.35

Owen Illinois (OI) roll of 2,400 short Dec. 21 puts to short Jan. 20 puts to open