opportunities for deployment of superefficient air conditioners in … · household ownership of...

Nihar Shah, PhD, PE

THIRD ANNUAL CO3OL WORKSHOP

DECEMBER 5-7, 2016

WORLD BANK, WASHINGTON, DC

Opportunities for Deployment of Superefficient Air

Conditioners in Tandem with Refrigerant Transition:

Examples from India, Pakistan

Introduction to Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Dedicated to solving the most pressing scientific problems facing humankind.

More than two decades of work internationally on energy and climate policy,

appliances, buildings, transport, industry, air quality.

Significant focus on energy efficiency.

Technical Support to US DOE Appliance Standards Rulemakings.

Technical Support to Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM) Advanced Cooling(AC)

Challenge, Superefficient Equipment and Appliance Deployment (SEAD) Initiative

and US –India Space Cooling Collaboration.

Technical Support to China National Institute of Standardization (CNIS) to revise

Air Conditioner standard with low- global warming potential (GWP) criterion.

2

Managed by the University of California for

the United States Department of Energy

13 — Nobel Prizes13 — National Medal of Science recipients 4,200 — Employees 200 — Site acreage

Outline

3

• Background and Trends• Opportunity• Recent Work• Summary

Global AC Market and Low-GWP alternatives

4

Source: DOE,“Future of Airconditioning for Buildings” , 2016

• Largest AC product categories by global sales are Ductless split and VRF/VRV systems followed by chillers and packaged rooftop units and then small(window and portable) ACs.

Growth in China’s AC market

Source: NSSO, 2012, Fridley et al., 2012

• The AC ownership rate in urban China went from almost 0% in 1990s to over 100% in ~15 years.

• China today is a ~50 million/year AC market, ~80GW of connected load added per year, ~120 ACs per 100 urban households.

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Clothes Washers

Color TVs

Refrigerators

Room Air Conditioners

India2011

Future cooling needs

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Source: Davis et al, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2015

• India, South East Asia, Nigeria and Brazil all have much higher cooling needs (indicated as cooling degree days) compared to China.

• AC sales in major emerging economies are growing at rates similar to China circa 1994‒1995, e.g., India room AC sales growing at ~10-15%/year, Brazil at ~20%/year (Shah et al., 2013).

• As incomes grow, and urbanization, electrification continue, cooling needs are likely to grow significantly as well.

Incomes and Uptake of ACs

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Urban Households by Expenditure Percentile

Household ownership of air coolers and air

conditioners by expenditure class in India (2010)

Source: NSSO 2012

Growing incomes lead to jump in ownership of ACs

Current and Future Estimated Stock

8

• Global Room AC stock is estimated to grow significantly from

now till 2050 with much of the growth in major emerging economies such as China,

India, Brazil, Pakistan and SE Asia (Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand).

• Projections based on LBNL’s BUENAS model also used by IEA in World Energy

Outlook.

Sales-based 2015 Stock (Millions)

Residential

Commercial Total

Brazil 17.5 11.6 29.1

Chile 0.4 0.7 1.1

China* 326.7 146.8 473.5

Colombia 0.8 0.6 1.4

Egypt 3.1 2.1 5.2

India 14 4.7 18.7

Indonesia 10.5 7 17.6

Mexico 4.1 0.9 5.1

Pakistan 1.7 0.6 2.2

S. Arabia 4.7 1.2 5.9

Thailand 8.4 5.1 13.5

United Arab Emirates

2.1 0.6 2.7

Vietnam 5.1 2.1 7.2

Total 399.3 183.9 583.2

2015

Total: 900 Million units

2030

Brazil

Chile

China

Colombia

Egypt

India

Indonesia

Mexico

Pakistan

S. Arabia

Thailand


Vietnam

Rest of the world OECD

Rest of the world non-OECDTotal: 1,600 Million units

Global AC Stock Forecast

2050

Brazil

Chile

China

Colombia

Egypt

India

Indonesia

Mexico

Pakistan

S. Arabia

Thailand


Vietnam

Rest of the world OECD

Rest of the world non-OECDTotal: 2,500 Million units

Large Grid Impact of Cooling Peak Load

~2200 MW(60%)

~1600 MW(40%)

Source: End-use peak load forecast for Western Electricity Coordinating Council, Itron and LBNL, 2012

Cooling comprises ~30% of current and forecasted peak load in California…

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in J

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2020

…and 40%‒60% of summer

peak load in large metropolitan cities with hot climates, such as Delhi, India.

CALIFORNIA DELHI

Source: DSLDC, 2012

Outline

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Kigali amendment brings a win-win opportunity to reduce

both CO2 and HFC emissions!

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Source: Hu et al, 2013, Nature Climate Change

Control of CO2 and HFC emissions needed

Refrigerant 100 yr GWP

R134a (HFC) 1430

R404A (HFC) 3900

R410A (HFC) 2100

R22 (HCFC) 1810

Opportunity: Simultaneous Efficiency

Improvement and Refrigerant Transition

12

• Air Conditioners are typically one of the first products to be targeted for a energy

efficiency standards or labeling program and will also undergo refrigerant transition

under Kigali Amendment.

• Both refrigerant transition and efficiency improvement typically require redesign of

appliances and retooling of manufacturing lines.

• Coordinated efficiency improvement with refrigerant transition can keep costs low for

consumers, manufacturers, utilities and funders.

• Previous work: Coordinated efficiency improvement with refrigerant transition can

roughly double the climate benefit of either policy in isolation. –(Shah et al 2015).

Requires:

• close co-ordination of timelines, co-operation between environment and energy

ministries.

• technical and market knowledge- baselines and efficiency potential.

• capacity building on both energy efficiency and refrigerant transition.

Efficiency Standards & Labeling

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Country Ducted AC Non-Ducted AC First Most Recent

Australia VC MC 1987 2010Brazil ?? MC 2007 2011

Canada MC MC ? 2015China MC MC 2005 2010

EU MC MC 2002 2013Indonesia None None 2008 2017

India M M 2006 2016Japan M M ? 2008

South Korea M M 1993 2012Mexico MC MC 2006 2007

South Africa VC (?) VC (?) 2005 ??USA MC MC 1990 2013UAE M M 2001 2015

• Many larger economies typically have S&L programs for room ACs – These may

need to be updated.

• Smaller A5 countries may need assistance in developing S&L programs.

• Since the market is global, technical data can be easily repurposed and

customized.

M Mandatory

V Voluntary

C Categorical

Significant efficiency improvement is commercially possible today!

Significant efficiency improvement potential

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KR

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CSPF

AC models of one brand on Korean Market

42%

55%

“Global average”

Source: KEMCO, 2015

Outline

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Quick Aside-Test Procedures and Metrics

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• Most economies use ISO5151 as a reference test standard and until recently

used EER(Energy Efficiency Ratio) as an efficiency metric.

• Some Economies: US, EU, Japan, Korea, China, India have now adopted a

“seasonal metric” that can capture better part-load and seasonal performance

from inverter ACs.

• India is first economy to use ISO 16358 to combine fixed speed and inveter ACs in same

seasonal metric –Indian Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio (ISEER).

• Energy savings from more efficient RACs are calculated based on engineering analysis of

possible efficiency improvement from various components.

• Costs of these efficient components are collected from manufacturers in India.

• Estimated improvement of ISEER is calculated for various combinations of components using

the ISEER calculator to generate a manufacturing cost vs ISEER curve.

• Retail price increase required to cover the cost of efficiency improvement is compared with

electricity bill savings to calculate the payback period for consumers.

Costs of Efficient Components

Energy Savings from Efficient Components

Engineering Analysis of different

combinations of components

BEE ISEER metric

calculator

Manufacturing Cost vs ISEER

Curve

Estimated Retail Price vs

ISEERCurve

Markups based on actual retail

prices

Hours of use and electricity

prices

Lifecycle Costs and

Payback Period

Recent Work in India: Methodology

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Inputs

Outputs

Recent Work in India: Base Case Assumptions

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• The “base case model” from which efficiency improvements are

modeled is a1.5 ton mini-split AC with efficiency of 2.8 W/W (ISEER).

• 1.5 tons (or 5.25 kW) is the most popular cooling capacity and

accounts for roughly 60-65% of the market in India.

• Manufacturing cost of various components are collected from

various manufacturers in India.

• The total “bill of materials” manufacturing cost for the base case

model is Rs 11,000-14,500 as shown below.

Component

Cost Low

Range Rs Cost High Range Rs

Indoor Unit Heat Exchanger 1200 1370

Indoor Unit Fan motor 600 680

Outdoor Unit Compressor 3400 4100

Outdoor Unit Heat Exchanger 1500 1940

Outdoor Unit Sheet Metal 1200 1550

Outdoor Unit Fan blade 200 570

Outdoor Unit Fan Motor 450 640

Outdoor Unit Refrigerant 450 800

Outdoor Unit

Other

Components 2000 2850

Total 11000 14500

Source: Shah et al, 2016

Recent Work in India: Energy Savings and Component Costs

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• % Energy savings for each component are based on EU EcoDesign Study.

• Manufacturing costs are estimated based on data collected from various Indian

and global manufacturers.

• Markup of ~140% is arrived at by collecting actual retail prices on the market for

1.5 ton base models ~30,000-34,500.

• Sensitivity analysis is conducted with markup between 80%-160%.

Energy

Savings

from

Base

Case

Baseline Range Baseline Compressor (2.8 EER), 1.5 TR Cooling - -

3.0 EER compressor 5.50% 200 100-300

3.2 EER compressor 10.50% 400 200-600

3.4 EER compressor 15.00% 575 280-860

Alternating Current Compressor variable speed drive 21.00% 3,600 1800-5400

Direct Current Compressor variable speed drive 23.00% 5,400 2700-8100

Variable speed drives for fans and compressor 26.00% 6,300 3150-9450

UA value of both heat exchangers increased by 20% 7.50% 1,470 735-2200





Thermostatic Expansion Valve 3.50% 250 125-375

Electronic Expansion Valve 6.50% 1500 750-2250

Component

Incremental

Manufacturing Cost

(Rs)

Compressor

Variable

speed drive

Heat

Exchanger

Expansion

valve


Recent Results from India: Manufacturing Costs, Retail Prices vs Efficiency

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• Retail price estimates based on “bottom-up” engineering analysis are aligned with

actual retail prices of ACs on the Indian market.

• Payback period analysis shows efficiency improvement upto 5.2 ISEER has a

payback of less than 3 years even under a “high cost” scenario.

• Efficiency Improvement upto 3.5 ISEER has a payback period of nearly1 year even

under a “high cost” scenario.


Preliminary Results for Pakistan: Manufacturing Costs, Retail Prices vs Efficiency

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• Payback period analysis shows efficiency improvement upto 4.7 EER has a

payback of less than 3 years.

• Efficiency Improvement upto 3.5 EER has a payback period of about 6 months

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Least Mfg Costs and Retail Prices vs Efficiency

Manufacturing Cost

Estimated Retail Price

Source: Adapted from Shah et al, 2016 data

• Significant estimated growth in the AC market particularly in major emerging economies- driven by

rising incomes, cooling degree days.

• Large scale impact of air conditioning on electricity generation and peak load, particularly in hot climates

and populous countries.

• Kigali Amendment offers an opportunity for efficiency improvement along with refrigerant transition and

would lower costs for consumers, manufacturers, utilities and funders

• Coordinated action on efficiency improvement and refrigerant transition would double the climate

benefit of either policy implemented in isolation.

• Significant cost effective potential for efficiency improvement exists.

• Needs:

• Larger economies typically have efficiency S&L programs–may need to be updated

• Smaller A5 countries may need assistance in developing S&L programs.

• Close co-ordination of timelines between environment and energy ministries.

• Capacity building on both energy efficiency and refrigerant transition.

• Since the market is global, technical data can be easily repurposed and customized.

• Some countries may need help developing seasonal metrics based on ISO 16358 to capture energy

savings from inverter ACs.

22

Summary

Questions, Suggestions?

23

http://eetd.lbl.gov/publications/benefits-of-leapfrogging-to-superef-0

Contact: Nihar Shah [email protected]

https://eetd.lbl.gov/publications/cost-benefit-of-improving-the-efficie

http://eetd.lbl.gov/publications/benefits-of-leapfrogging-to-superef-0

mailto:[email protected]

https://eetd.lbl.gov/publications/cost-benefit-of-improving-the-efficie

“Types” of efficiency improvement

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Explanation Factors Magnitude of Energy Savings

A Refrigerant Some Alternate Low-GWP refrigerants being considered are more efficient

• Full optimization likely to bring even more efficiency improvement

~5% +

B Replacement New ACs are more efficient than old ACs

• decline in performance over the life

• Current standards are more stringent

• Current technology is more efficient

~10-50%

C Market Transformation(e.g. standards,labeling, incentives, awards etc.)

Best performing ACs on the market are 40-50% more efficient than average

• Best available technology is significantly more efficient

• Variable speed drives

~20-40%

Total 1-(0.95x0.7x0.7) >50%

• Assistance should ideally focus on A and C. B will happen “anyway”.

• Requires technical and market data to characterize “baseline” and efficiency potential – Key

for ambitious action!

Coordinated Action: Global Lifetime

Emissions Reduction in 2030

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• Efficiency improvement of ACs along with refrigerant transition roughly doubles the

emissions benefit of either policy undertaken in isolation.

• Countries with higher hours of use or a more carbon-intensive grid

benefit more from efficiency.

EfficiencyRef Transition

Brazil 23% 77%

Chile 46% 54%

China 62% 38%

Colombia 55% 45%

Egypt 62% 38%

India 74% 26%

Indonesia 69% 31%

Mexico 61% 39%

S. Arabia 64% 36%

Thailand 76% 24%United Arab Emirates 59% 41%

Vietnam 74% 26%

Pakistan 66% 34%

Average 61% 39%

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Lifetime EmissionsAbatement

Potential in 2030(GT CO2e)

Direct EmissionsAbatement fromRefrigerantTransition

Indirect EmissionsAbatement fromRefrigerantTransition

Indirect EmissionsAbatement fromEfficiencyImprovement


Coordinated Action: Reduction in 2030 and 2050

Peak Load (GW)

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• Efficiency improvement of ACs along with refrigerant transition has a significant

peak load reduction potential.

• Countries with higher hours of use, and larger AC markets show more peak load

reduction.

2030 2050

Efficiency

improvement

Refrigerant

transition

Efficiency

Improvement &

Refrigerant

transition

Number of

Avoided 500

MW Peak

Power Plants Efficiency

improvement

Refrigerant

transition

Efficiency

Improvement &

Refrigerant

transition

Number of

Avoided 500

MW Peak

Power Plants

Brazil 14-32 2.3-5.4 15.4-36 31-72 41.3-96.4 6.9-16.1 46-108 92-216

Chile 0.44 -1.0 0.1-0.2 0.5-1.1 1-2 0.9- 2.2 0.2-0.4 1.0-2.0 2-4

China 118 -277 20-46 132-310 264-620 138.5-323.2 23.1-54 155-361 310-720

Colombia 1.9-4.3 0.3-0.7 2.1-4.8 4-10 4.7-10.9 0.8-1.8 5.0-12.0 10-24

Egypt 2.6-6.2 0.4-1.0 3.0-7.0 6-14 9.0-21.0 1.5-3.5 10.0-23.0 20-46

India 27.3-63.8 4.56 -10.63 31-71 61-142 98-229 16.4-38.2 110-256 219-511

Indonesia 17.8-41.5 3.0-7.0 20-46 40-92 27-63 4.5-10.5 30-71 60-140

Mexico 1.8-4.2 0.3-0.7 2.0-4.7 4-10 5-11.6 0.8-1.9 5.5-13 11-26

Pakistan 1.2-2.9 0.21-0.48 1.0-3.0 2-6 8.0-19 1-3.0 9.0-21 18-42

Saudi Arabia 1.7-4.0 0.3-0.7 2-4.4 4-9 2.2-5.1 0.4-0.9 2.4-6 5-12

Thailand 5.2-12.2 0.9-2.0 6-13.7 12-28 6-13.8 1-2.3 6.6-15 14-30

UAE 0.71-1.7 0.1-0.3 0.8-1.9 2-4 1-2.3 0.2-0.4 1.1-3 2-6

Vietnam 5.8-13.4 1-2.2 6.4-15 13-30 6.7-15.7 1.1-2.6 7.5-18 15-36

Global 302-705 50-117 338-788 676-1576 487-1137 81-190 544-1270 1090-2540


Coordinated Action: Annual GHG Impact of AC policies in

2030

Transformation of the AC industry to produce super –efficient ACs and low GWP

refrigerants in 2030 could provide GHG savings of 0.85 GT/year annually in China.

equivalent to over 8 Three Gorges dams and over 0.32 GT/year annually in India,

roughly twice India’s solar mission.


Structure of Model

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Total EmissionsReduction PotentialTotal Emissions

Reduction Potential from Efficiency

Improvement Only

Total Emissions Reduction Potential

from Refrigerant Transition Only

Market Data: Sales, Growth Rates,

Lifetimes

Efficiency Results from the Superefficient

Equipment and Appliance Deployment

Initiative (SEAD)

Shah et al 2013 found ~30% efficiency improvement cost effective in most countries.

Structure of Model

29

GWP: Global Warming PotentialAREP: Air-conditioning, Heating and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) Low Global Warming Potential (GWP) Alternate Refrigerant Evaluation Program (AREP)

Base Case Assumptions

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Cooling Capacity (tons) 1.5

Appliance Lifetime 10

Power Consumption (kW) 1.81

Energy Efficiency Ratio (W/W) 2.9

Refrigerant Charge (kg) 1.7

Refrigerant Leakage Rate(%/year) 10.0%

End of Life Refrigerant Loss Rate (kg) 100%

Recharge at % loss 35%

Charge/ton of AC capacity (kg/ton) 1.10

Number of recharges 2

Total Lifetime Charge Emitted (kg) 2.81

Total % Charge Emitted 170%

• R410A 1.5 ton mini-split AC with 2.9 W/W Energy Efficiency Ratio(EER).

• Mini-splits most common type of AC globally (60-95%)

• 1.5 tons is most popular cooling capacity in many global markets

e.g. 60-65% of market in India.

• 2.9 EER representative of “average” efficiency found on global market, close to

many minimum standards (e.g. 2.7 EER for fixed speed ACs in India (2015 one

star) and 3.1 EER in China)

AHRI Low-GWP Alternate Refrigerant Evaluation Program

(AREP) Phase 1(2012-2014) & Phase 2 (2015-2016)

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• Voluntary co-operative research and testing program to identify suitable

alternatives to high-GWP refrigerants.

• Standard reporting format for candidate refrigerants strongly desired by

industry.

Source: AHRI, 2014

32

AHRI Low-GWP Alternate Refrigerant Evaluation Program

(AREP) Phase 1(2012-2014) & Phase 2 (2015-2016)

Source: AHRI, 2016

• Lowest GWP >450.

• Some R32 HFO blends e.g. DR 55 appear to be optimized for flammability, very

low burning velocity.

Deliberative draft—Not for distribution

Evolution of Refrigerant Use

Source: Adapted from Calm, International Journal of Refrigeration, 2008,http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140700708000261

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140700708000261

High Cooling Energy Consumption in Largest Metros

Many of the world’s most populous metropolitan areas have hot climates

Bubble size indicates population

Madras

Jakarta (13.2M)

Mumbai (18.2M)

Calcutta

Delhi

MiamiRio de Janeiro

ShenzhenGuangzhou

Sao Paulo

Osaka Shanghai

TokyoBeijing

Seoul

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Cooling Degree

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Source: Sivak, 2009

Growth in Renewable Generation and Cooling Energy, 2010‒2020

Incremental electricity consumption from residential ACs alone is >50% of solar and wind generation projected to be added between 2010 and 2020.

Wind

Solar PV

Solar CSP

AustraliaBrazil

China

European Union

India

IndonesiaJapan

Mexico

United States

T&D Losses

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Renewable energy generation: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 (Current Policies scenario).Residential air conditioning consumption: Shah et al. (2013); LBNL’s Room AC analysis for the SEAD initiative; and V. Letschert et al. (2012), LBNL’s BUENAS model.

opportunities for deployment of superefficient air conditioners in … · household ownership of...

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