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Opportunities and Challenges for Tomorrow’s Global Food SystemTomorrow s Global Food System
D G PillDr. Greg PillarAssistant Professor of E i t l S iEnvironmental Science
and Chemistry
Thrive.
Opportunities and Challenges for Tomorrow’s Global Food SystemTomorrow s Global Food System
Part I The Current SituationPart I – The Current Situation…
Dr. Greg PillarA i P f fAssistant Professor of Environmental Science
and Chemistry
Thrive.
The Food Situation…..eo
ple
s 1000
1050
rshe
d P
Cou
ntrie
s
950
1000
nder
nour
opin
g C
900
ns o
f Un
n D
evel
o
800
850
Mill
ion i
750
800
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
FAO, 2009
Near East &North Africa
DevelopedUndernourished by region*…..
Latin America
North Africa(33)
Countries(16)
India(231)
(45)
China(123)
S b S hSub‐SaharanAfrica(212)
Asia and the Pacific**
(189)(212) (189)
**excluding China and India FAO, 2008*based on 2005 data
The Food Situation…..
People who live on:
12%88%88%
less than $1.00 per dayp ymore than $1.00 per day
World Bank Developer Indicators, 2008
The Food Situation…..
40%People who live on:
60%60%
less than $2.00 per dayp ymore than $2.00 per day
World Bank Developer Indicators, 2008
The Food Situation…..
People who live on:
80%
20%
less than $10.00 per daymore than $10.00 per day
World Bank Developer Indicators, 2008
The Food Situation…..
FAO, 2008
1200
The Food Situation…..ne
1000Wheat (US)Maize (US)Rice (Thailand)
per T
onn
600
800Sorghum (US)
S D
olla
r p
400
600
US
200
Y99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
0
Year
FAO, 2009Price of wheat, maize, rice and sorghum between 1999 and 2009
United States: The Revis family of North CarolinaFood expenditure for one week: $341.98
Menzel & D’Aluisio, 2008
Chad: The Aboubakar family of Breidjing CampFood expenditure for one week: 685 CFA Francs or $1.23
Menzel & D’Aluisio, 2008
The Food Situation…..
More than 40 countries have experienced protests dueMore than 40 countries have experienced protests dueto food prices over the last 3 years.
“Pasta” protests in Italy
“Tortilla” protests in MexicoTortilla protests in Mexico
www.standeyo.comwww.msnbc.comwww.usatoday.comwww.bbc.com
“Bread” protests in Eygpt
“Mud Cookies” in Haiti where the cost of 2 cups of rice was selling at $0.60 in January 08, up50% from the previous year. These cookies sell for about $0.05 each.
By Ariana Cubillos, AP
Opportunities and Challenges for Tomorrow’s Global Food SystemTomorrow s Global Food System
Part II The ChallengesPart II – The Challenges…
Dr. Greg PillarA i P f fAssistant Professor of Environmental Science
and Chemistry
Thrive.
10
Human PopulationPredicted
billi
ons)
8
10
6.5 billion
9.2 billionul
atio
n (b
6 2.5 billion
6.0 billion
man
pop
u
41 billion
1.6 billion
obal
hum
2
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Glo
0
Year2.5 people per second (80 million per year)
UN Population Division, 2009
Human Population10 0.6
ons) 8
on)0.5
tion
(bill
i
6
(ha/
pers
0.4
d po
pula
t
4
ble
land
(
0.3
Wor
ld
2 Arab
0.2
Y1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
0 0.1
Earthtrends.wri.orgFaostat.fao.org/faostat
YearHuman PopulationHuman population (projected)Arable land
Demand….3 0
(%)
2.5
3.0
PREDICTED
ncre
ase
2.0
nnua
l in
1.5
erag
e an
0 5
1.0
8 7 6 5
Ave
0.0
0.5
Mackenzie, 2008Goldman Sachs, 2007
1979-1988
1988-1997
1997-2006
2006-2015
3 0
Supply (%
)
2 5
3.0 1967 - 19961997 - 2006
crea
se (
2.0
2.5
nual
inc
1.5
age
ann
1.0
Ave
ra
0.5
Maize Wheat Rice0.0
Mackenzie, 2008FAO‐STAT, 2008
5Supply & Demand….
to 1
965
3 0
3.5 Global Demand (Crop Product Consumption) Global Crop Yield
dexe
d
2.5
3.0
man
d In
2.0
nd D
em
1.5
Yie
ld a
n
1.0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Y
modified from Doyle & Zavislak, 2008 Goldman Sachs, 2007
Supply & Demand….
HoardingSubsidies Import‐Dependence
modified from Doyle & Zavislak, 2008
Additional factors that have influenced supply and demandof cereal grains over the last few years
“Land Grabbing”….
Selling Land Purchasing Land
Von Braun & Meinzen‐Dick, 2009
Selling Land Purchasing LandCountries that have bought and sold land for
meat and/or grain production
Meat Production – Developing Countries3 5
3.0
3.5Beef and BuffaloPig
onne
s
2.0
2.5Poultry
ns o
f to
1.5
2.0
Mill
io
0.5
1.0
0.0
FAO‐STAT, 2009Year1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Meat Production ‐ Grain
Milk
Chicken
Eggshttp://www.ces.purdue.edu
Beef
Pork
0 5 10 15 20 25
Grain required (kg) to produce1 kg of protein
0 5 10 15 20 25
Meat Production ‐ Land
Chicken
Milk
Eggs
Pork
Milk
http://homepage.eircom.net
Beef
( 2)0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Land required (m2) toproduce 1kg of protein
Gary Kazanjian – NY Times
Meat Production ‐Water
Eggs
Chicken
gg
Milk
Pork
Beef
Milk http://www.macaulay.ac.uk
0 200 400 600 800
Water required (kg) to produce 1 kg of protein
Monoculture – Input Intensive Farming
Solar EnergyPrecipitation
Fossil Fuel Resources
Machines
PrecipitationCarbon Dioxide
Fertilization
SeedingPlant Nutrients& Amendments
Seed
Tillage
Seeding
IrrigationHarvest &Storage
WaterAgricultural Chemicals Pest Control
Purchased Inputs Farm Production
Biofuels
BiofuelsSweeteners
Cereals2%
Field corn surplusAlcohols
Sweet corn
Starch2%
Sweeteners2%
Sweet cornSeed4%
High fructoseCorn syrup
2%
Feed
y p5%
Feed55% Ethanol
30%
National CornGrowers Association, 2008
Total Annual U.S. Non‐Export Corn Production: 10.5 billion bushels
Global Climate Change
Graphic by the NY TimesData Source ‐ “Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country” by William R. Cine, Peterson Institute, 2007
Global Climate Change
FAO, 2008
Countries that have experienced reductions in Food production due to extreme weather events
(droughts and/or flooding) over the last several years
Global Climate Change
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service & NASA, 2005
Global Climate Change
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service & NASA, 2005
Global Climate Change2 02.0
uctio
n to
ns) 1.5
Justin Mott, NY Times
an P
rod
met
ric
1.0
ustra
lia(m
illio
n
0.5A (
Wine GrapesRice
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20080.0
modified from NY Times, April 17, 2008
Amy Toensing
Soil Fertility / Degradation
Virginia Mason & Charles Blow, 2008
Are we approaching anotherAre we approaching another Food Revolution?Food Revolution?
Opportunities and Challenges for Tomorrow’s Global Food SystemTomorrow s Global Food System
Part III Needs and OpportunitiesPart III – Needs and Opportunities…
Dr. Greg PillarA i P f fAssistant Professor of Environmental Science
and Chemistry
Thrive.
Increase Supply – GMOshttp://www.american.com
http://www.macalester.edu
Increase Supply – GMOs
1 1 billion hectares
Land Use….1.1 billion hectares
1.0 billion hectares
0 20 billi h t
17% 14% 71%
0.20 billion hectares
b ll h 0 36 billion hectares
Sub‐SaharanAfrica
Central/SouthAmerica
China
49%77%
0.38 billion hectares0.21 billion hectares
0.36 billion hectares
46% 49%77%
IndiaUnitedS
EuropeStates
p
Planted CropsTotal Arable, Rain‐Irrigated Land World Soil Resources Report, 2000
Increase Supply – Land Management5
are) 4
per h
ect
3
tonn
es p
2
Yiel
d (
1
Malawi
EthiopiaNigeria
Uganda Malimbique
0
modified from Mackenzie, 2008
MaEth Nig Uga
Mozamb
Average National YieldPotential Yield (Plot Demonstrations)
Reduce Inputs – Increase Production
Solar EnergyPrecipitation
Fossil Fuel Resources
Machines
PrecipitationCarbon Dioxide
Fertilization
SeedingPlant Nutrients& Amendments
Seed
Tillage
Seeding
IrrigationHarvest &Storage
WaterAgricultural Chemicals Pest Control
Purchased Inputs Farm Production
“The history of every nation, is eventually written in the way in which it Soil Fertility / DegradationThe history of every nation, is eventually written in the way in which itcares for its soil”‐‐ Franklin D. Roosevelt
Photos by Jim Richardson, National Geographic
Increase Supply – Land Management
Bruno Glaser
Urban Farming
Justin Sullivan / Getty
Urban Farming
http://riotofreasons.blogspot.com
Urban Farming
http://greensgrow.org
http://www.verticalfarm.com/http://gliving.com http://greenbrooklyn.comhttp://activplace.com
Research and Development Spending12
h (%
)
10
121976 - 19811981 - 19911991 2000
grow
th
6
81991 - 2000
annu
al
4
6
ivera
ge a
0
2
Asia –
Latin America &Caribbean
Sub‐Saharan
Developingcountries
High‐income
Av
-2
0
PacificSub Saharan
Africa countries
Modified from Pardey, Beintema, Dehmer and Wood, 2006
Food Sovereignty
http://www.panna.orghttp://www.irri.org
Change the Culture
http://www.organicfood‐benefits.com/
Thank You!
Dr. Greg Pillar
Assistant Professor of Environmental Science
and Chemistry
Queens University of CharlotteQueens University of CharlotteWeb: http://www.queens.eduEmail: [email protected]
Thrive.