JEPPIAAR ENGINEERING COLLEGE

167JEPPIAAR ENGINEERING COLLEGE(NBA Accredited & ISO 9001:2008 Certified Institution)Rajiv Gandhi Salai, Chennai 600 119.DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES

BA7201OPERATIONS MANAGEMENTUNIT I INTRODUCTION TO OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT 9Operations Management Nature, Importance, historical development, transformation processes, differences between services and goods, a system perspective, functions, challenges, current priorities, recent trends; Operations Strategy Strategic fit , framework; Supply Chain ManagementUNIT II FORECASTING, CAPACITY AND FACILITY DESIGN 9Demand Forecasting Need, Types, Objectives and Steps. Overview of Qualitative and Quantitative methods. Capacity Planning Long range, Types, Developing capacity alternatives. Overview of sales and operations planning. Overview of MRP, MRP II and ERP. Facility Location Theories, Steps in Selection, Location Models. Facility Layout Principles, Types, Planning tools and techniques.UNIT III DESIGN OF PRODUCT, PROCESS AND WORK SYSTEMS 9Product Design Influencing factors, Approaches, Legal, Ethical and Environmental issues. Process Planning, Selection, Strategy, Major Decisions. Work Study Objectives, Procedure. Method Study and Motion Study. Work Measurement and Productivity Measuring Productivity and Methods to improve productivity.UNIT IV MATERIALS MANAGEMENT 9Materials Management Objectives, Planning, Budgeting and Control. Purchasing Objectives, Functions, Policies, Vendor rating and Value Analysis. Stores Management Nature, Layout, Classification and Coding. Inventory Objectives, Costs and control techniques. Overview of JIT.UNIT V SCHEDULING AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 9Project Management Scheduling Techniques, PERT, CPM; Scheduling - work centers nature, importance; Priority rules and techniques, shopfloor control; Flow shop scheduling Johnsons Algorithm Gantt charts; personnel scheduling in services. TOTAL: 45 PERIODSTEXTBOOKS1. Pannerselvam R, Production and Operations Management, Prentice Hall India, Second Edition, 2008. 2. Aswathappa K and Shridhara Bhat K, Production and Operations Management,Himalaya Publishing House, Revised Second Edition, 2008.UNIT IINTRODUCTION TO OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT Definition: Production/operations management is the process, which combines and transforms various resources used in the Production/operations subsystem of the organization into value added product/services in a controlled manner as per the policies of the organization.Concept of Production: Production function is that part of an organization with the transformation of a range of inputs into the required outputs (products) having the requisite quality level. The set of interrelated management activities, which are involved in manufacturing certain products, is called as production management. If the same concept is extended to services management, then the corresponding set of management activities is called as operations management.Production as a systemProduction system model comprises:1. Production system.2. Conversion sub-system.3. Control sub-system.A system is understood as a whole which cannot be taken aparta. Production system: A system whose function is to convert a set of inputs into a set of desired outputs.b. Conversion sub-system: A sub-system of the larger production system where inputs are converted into outputs.c. Control sub-system: A sub-system of the larger production system where a portion of the output is monitored for feedback signals to provide corrective action if required.Definition: Production is defined as the step-by-step conversion of one form of material into another form through chemical or mechanical process to create or enhance the utility of the product to the user. Thus production is a value addition process. Edwood Buffa defined production as a process by which goods and services are created. Ex: constructing flats, manufacturing car, bus, radio, television etc.

Production Systems Production system receives inputs in the form of materials, personnel, capital utilities and information. These inputs are changed in conversion subsystems into the desired products and services which are called output. A portion of the output is monitored in the control subsystem to determine if it is acceptable in terms of quantity, cost and quality. If the output is not acceptable, managerial collective action is required. The control subsystem ensures system performance by providing feedback so that corrective action can be taken by managers. The production system has the following characteristics:Production is an organized activity, so every production system has an objective. The system transforms the various inputs to useful outputs. It does not operate in isolation from the other organization system. There exists a feedback about the activities, which is essential to control and improve system performance.Nature of Production Production system-A System whose function is to convert a set of inputs into a set of inputs into a set of desired outputs. Conversion sub-system- A sub-system of the larger production system where inputs are converted into outputs. Control sub-system-A sub-system of the larger production system where a portion of the output is monitored for feedback signals to provide corrective action if required.Basic elements of production system are Inputs-5 ms Outputs-Product/service Conversion process Information feedback- provides information to managers to decide whether organizational activities, need adjustments. Price=cost + profit Random fluctuations consist of unplanned (or) uncontrollable influences that cause the actual output to differ from existing output. They can arise from external sources or internal problems.Random FluctuationOutputs

GoodsServices

Inputs

MenMoneyMachineMaterialsMethods

Conversion Process

Comparison of actual with standards

Importance and Organizational function / Functions of Production manager1. Production planning: Planning is a preoperational activity. It aims at anticipating the probable difficulties so that they can be eliminated before they materialize. Production planning aims setting the goals (or) targets and allocating existing resources (4ms).2. Production Control:Control is a managing technique which aims to see that the activities are carried out inline with the predetermined standards. PC is a process of planning production in advance of operations, establishing the exact boot of each individual item, setting starting and finishing datas for each important items and releasing the necessary orders and initiating the required follow-up to affect the smooth functioning of employees. Thus it involves the following elements. Routing Scheduling Dispatching Expediting Follow-upRouting- Sequence of operationDispatching- Giving orders, to carry out the jobExpediting- monitoring the processFollow-up- Feedback3. Factory Building:Basic consideration falling within the scope of production management. The primary purpose of factory building is to protect the machines, plant services and manufacturing process. It involves the following: Type of constructing to own the building. Get it on lease whether single storing. Multistory.4. Provision of plant servicesTwo categories, Production services. Employee services.A production service includes storeroom, power room, tool room, material handling, repair services etc.An employee service includes canteen, recreation room, parking, and toilet.5. Plant layout:Arranging various facilities and arrangement in plant.Deals with the arrangements of machines and plant facilities inside the factory area. The machine should be arranged in such a way, the production plant arranged smoothly. Basic layouts are, Production layout Process Combination Fixed- position

6. Physical environment: Lighting: should be sufficient in terms of general lighting and lighting required for a particular process. If possible the use of natural light should be made and the building be constructed according. Otherwise artificial lighting should be used. Fresh air: provision should be made with the help of exhaust fans. The smoke dust, fumes and odour should be removed. Humidity: The moisture content of air is known as humidity. Certain specific degree of moisture is required for production process like spinning and textile industry. Noise: Noise arises due to fast movement of machines. It affects the efficiency of workers. Noise can be eliminated by regular replacement of parts, covering the machines (or) locate such processes at a distant place. Vibration: Vibration arises due to fast movement of giant machines. It affects the precision in processing. Vibration can be reduced by mounting the machines n springs, rubber (or) other shock absorbers.

7. Method study:Direct function of production management. The standard methods should be devised for performing the repetitive functions efficiently. The unnecessary elements should be eliminated by suitable positioning of workers for different process is developed.i. Motion Studyii. Time study8. Inventory Control:Inventory control deals with control over raw material, WIP, finished products, store suppliers, tools etc. The management of these items are closely related with the production. The raw material should be purchased at right quantity/ quality/ source/ time/ place.9. Quality Control:* QC is easy in manufacturing and in service it is very difficult.* QC is everyones business. The long-run success of the business largely depends on its ability to maintain the quality standards as decided by the management and accepted by customers.* QC is maintained by testing the methodology.10. Product Development:Standardization, simplification,It is not likely that the product which is accepted today by the customers will be accepted by them forever, in the form same quality. Product development basically considers following aspects, Diversification Improvement in existing product Simplification StandardizationTypes of Production:1. Intermittent Production:a. job (or) unit production b. batch (or) quality production2. Continuous (or) mass production3. Flexible manufacturing system (FMS)4. Computer Integrated Manufacturing (CIM)

1. Intermittent Production:1. Job production/unitThis is the oldest method of production on a very small scale with this the individual requirement met. Each job order stand alone and is not likely to repeat.This type has lot of flexibility of operation and hence GPMs are required. Factory adopting this type of production is small in size. The layout of such factory is made flexible. So that maximum work can be easily carried out with slight adjustments.Application:Used for things for which does not produce on a large scale, and things are highly artistic nature.Characteristics:The Job-shop production system is followed when there is:1. High variety of products and low volume.2. Use of general purpose machines and facilities.3. Highly skilled operators who can take up each job as a challenge because of uniqueness.4. Large inventory of materials, tools, parts.5. Detailed planning is essential for sequencing the requirements of each product, capacities for each work centre and order priorityAdvantages: Only method which can meet the individual requirement. There are no managerial problems because of very less no of workers. Man working in huge production get an opportunity to produce large type of product and can become expert I very short time. This requires very less money and easy starting. The risk of loss is less. Because of flexibility of factory due to the reduction of demand.Disadvantage: As the purchase of raw material is less, the cost of raw materials is more. For handling different types of jobs only skilled workers are needed. Thus labour cost increases. Higher cost due to frequent set up changes. Higher level of inventory at all levels and hence higher inventory cost. Production planning is complicated. Larger space requirements.

2. Batch (or) Quantity Production:Batch production is a form of manufacturing in which the job passes through the functional departments in lots or batches and each lot may have a different routing Goods/products produced in small batches. Orders may or may not repeat in the same form.Few- SPMs (Special purpose Machines)Large- GPMs (General purpose Machines)SPMs: Initial investments is costly, efficiency is very high.Application: Batch production system is used under the following circumstances:1. When there is shorter production runs.2. When plant and machinery are flexible.3. When plant and machinery set up is used for the production of item in a batch and change of set up is required for processing the next batch.4. When manufacturing lead time and cost are lower as compared to job order production.Characteristics:1. Adopted in medium-sized enterprises 2. Bigger in scale than that of job production and smaller than mass production3. Some SPMs and others are GPs4. In this type of production, two or more type of product is manufactured in small small batches (or) lots.Advantages:1. While comparing with mass production it requires less capital.2. If the demand for one product decreases then the production for another product increased. Thus the risk loss is very less.3. Better utilization of plant and machinery.4. Promotes functional specialization5. Cost per unit is lower as compared to job order production6. Lower investment in plant and machinery7. Flexibility to accommodate and process number of products8. Job satisfaction exists for operators

Disadvantages:1. Comparing to mass production the cost of sales and advertisement per unit is more.2. Raw materials cost is larger than mass production.3. Material handling is complex because of irregular and longer flows.4. Production planning and control is complex.5. Work in process inventory is higher compared to continuous production.6. Higher set up costs due to frequent changes in set up.

2. Continuous (or) Mass production:This method is a large scale production. This type of production requires specially planned layout. It requires more SPMs. Working progress is move from one stage to another with the help of automated devices. Simplification and standardization of product is more.CharacteristicsMass production is used under the following circumstances:1. Standardization of product and process sequence.2. Dedicated special purpose machines having higher production capacities and output rates.3. Large volume of products.4. Shorter cycle time of production.5. Lower in process inventory.6. Perfectly balanced production lines.7. Flow of materials, components and parts is continuous and without any back tracking.8. Production planning and control is easy.9. Material handling can be completely automatic.Advantages:1. Better quality and increased production 2. Wastage is minimum3. As Raw materials is purchased large no the cost may be less4. Sales and advertisement cost/unit is less.5. Only few skilled and rest semi-skilled workers are needed. Hence labour cost is less.6. Higher rate of production with reduced cycle time.7. Higher capacity utilization due to line balancing.8. Less skilled operators are required.9. Low process inventory.10. Manufacturing cost per unit is low.

Disadvantage:1. During the period of less demand less heavy loss on investment2. This type of production is not changeable with other type because of SPM.3. Workers feel bore with the repetition of same type of work.4. It cannot fulfill individual taste. 5. Breakdown of one machine will stop an entire production line.6. Line layout needs major change with the changes in the product design.7. High investment in production facilities.8. The cycle time is determined by the slowest operation.

1. Flexible Manufacturing System:Need and Importance of FMS:1. Rigid production system designed for producing high volume lone variety products uneconomical, unresponsive and non-competitive. It is small batch, high variety are market place.2. Customers are demanding greater variety of products and short-term delivery times.Definition:The computer Integrated Process technology suitable for producing a moderate variety of products in moderate volume.Characteristics:1. FMS is a computer controlled system2. It contains several work stations each does different operations3. The workstation and machine are automated.4. Automotive material handling equipment move components to the appropriate workstation.5. Preprogrammed machine select position and activate the specific tool for each job6. Hundreds of tools options are available.7. Once the machine has finished one batch the computer signals the next quantity or components and the machine automatically repositions and retools accordingly.8. The just finished batch is automatically transferred to the next work- stationAdvantages1. production is quick2. high quality3. operating cost is less4. less direct labour costApplications:FMS is generally appropriate when1. All products are variations of a stable basic design.2. All products use the same family of components.3. The no of components is moderate(10-50)4. The volume of each component is moderate (1000-3000) annually.5. Manufacturing components that require several machining operations.

4. Computer Integrated Manufacturing (CIM)CIM is the automated version of the manufacturing process, where the three major manufacturing functions.1. Product/process design2. Planning/controlling3. The manufacturing processes are replaced by the automated technologies. Further, the traditional integration mechanism oral/written communication is replaced by computer technology.There are 2 aspects of CIM. They are1. Organizational part2. Operational partThe various elements of these are listed below.Organizational part:It contains corporate services, finance, business planning and marketing.Operational part: It Consists of computer Aided Engineering (CAE)1. Computer Aided Process Planning(CAPP)2. CAP3. CAQC4. CAD5. CADesign and Drafting6. MRP(Material Resource Planning)Computer Aided Manufacturing1. Flexible Manufacturing system(FMS)2. Flexible Manufacturing assembly3. Direct Numerical control (DNC)4. Data Acquisition System(DAS)The different types of computers are as follows.1. Mainframe2. Mini3. Micro4. PC5. PLC(Programmable logic controllers)6. Robotic Controllers

Comparisons between Intermittent and Continuous Production:S.No.ParticularsIntermittentContinuous

1Type of plant layoutProcess layoutProduct layout

2Type of machineMore GPMsMore SPMs

3Type of labourHighly skilledFew skilled

4No of product and product designWhile the range of products is manufactured in small quantities the product design changes from batch to batch.Few standard products are manufactured with large quantities with standard product design.

5Changes in machine settingsAs the specification of each order changes, the machines are set accordingly.Set up for the machines are changed for the normal period.

6Nature and size of orderUnrepeated small size of product orders.Regular and bulk product orders

7Investment in machines and equipmentsIt is less because few machines are required and more GPMs are usedMore since SPMs are used the machines are arranged according to product layout duplication of machine may occur

8Investment in inventoriesThe finished good inventory is less. Waiting and bottleneck slow down of the operating cycle. As a result to the investment and WIP raw materials is increasedFinished good inventory is slightly high But due to the need for sub storing is reduced leads to minimum investments on WIP inventory and raw materials inventory

9Material Handling Equipments(AMH)Not feasible to employ mechanized equipmentsMechanized material handling equipments are used

10Material handling cost/unitTends to be highLow

11Plant maintenance servicesBreak down maintenancesPreventive maintenances

12Line balancingNot possibleIt is must

Classification based on type of strategy used by the manufacturer to serve the customer 1. Made to stock.2. Made to order3. Assemble to order

1. Made to stockDepending on the prediction, of the demand the product was produced and stored as stock. All the characteristics of mass production are applicable to make to stock type.Characteristics:1. Constant and predictable demand2. Few standard product3. Short-term delivery time expected by the customers4. Product has higher self- life Exceptions: All food products, newspaper.

2. Made to order:Initiation is only after getting the order. Similar to intermittent production.Characteristics:1. Customer can wait (or) the expected lead-time is high2. Seasonable demand3. Artistic in nature4. Individual taste and preference can be met5. Product is not standardized

3. Assemble to order:Characteristics: Lead-time is shorter compared to make to order. But it is higher compared to make to stock.5ps of production processInputs:People: Both indirect and indirect work forcePlant: Factories (or) service branches when production is carried outParts: Materials that go through the systemProcess: Includes equipments and steps by which production is accomplishedPlanning and Control System:Includes procedures and information management uses to operate the system.Types of transformation:1. Physical transformation in manufacturing2. Location in transportation3. Exchange in retailing4. Storage in warehousing5. Physiological in health careInformational in telecommunication

Factors of Production To generate a product or service an organisation will need to combine labour, capital, energy, materials and information. Labour is the mental and or physical effort of employees and can take a variety of forms including filing, lifting, data processing, decision making, and line management. In fact labour is any effort/task an employee needs to undertake in order to produce the product or service. Capital is the machines and tools needed to produce the product or service. This physical capital is purchased through financial capital such as loans, sale of shares in the organisation and use of profit generated by the organisation. Energy is provided through the use of gas, electricity, solar power and steam. Energy is needed to heat/light up the premises, make the machinery work and to ensure that the organisation is a comfortable place for the employees to work in.

Categories of operations managersStrategic, operating and control decisions made by operations managers. Strategic decisions: relating to products, processes and manufacturing facilities. These decisions are major ones having strategic importance and long-term significance for the organization. Operating decisions: relating to planning production to meet demand. These decisions are necessary in order to ensure that the ongoing production of goods and services meets the market demand and provides reasonable profits for the organization. Control decisions: relating to planning and controlling operations. These decisions concern the day-to-day activities of workers, quality of products and services, production and overhead costs and maintenance of machines.SCOPE OF PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MGMTCommencing with the selection of location, production management covers activities as acquisition of land, constructing buildings, procuring and installing machinery, purchasing and storing raw materials and converting them into saleable products.CHARACTERISTICS OF PRODUCTIONThe system is characterized by four features: Manufacturing as competitive Advantage. (TQM, BPRE, JIT, FMS, CIM some techniques which the companies are employing to gain competitive advantage.) Services Orientation. :(intangible& perishable nature of services, constant interaction with clients or customers, small volume of production to serve local markets, need to locate facilities to serve local markets) Disappearance of Smokestacks: production system was dominated by smokestacks. Protective labor legislation, environment movement has brought total transformation in the production system-factories are aesthetically designed and built, environment friendly.) Small has Become Beautiful: (by E.F.Schumacher opposed giant organizations and increased specialization. But industrialists to avail large scale economies of production went in for huge organizations and mass production systems).

Classification based on type of strategy used by the manufacturer to serve the customer Made to stock: Depending on the prediction, of the demand the product was produced and stored as stock. All the characteristics of mass production are applicable to make to stock type. Made to order: Initiation is only after getting the order. Similar to intermittent production.Characteristics: Customer can wait (or) the expected lead-time is high. (A lead time is the latency (delay) between the initiation and execution of a process) Seasonable demand Artistic in nature Individual taste and preference can be met Assemble to order: Characteristics: Lead-time is shorter compared to made to order. But it is higher compared to make to stock.RECENT TRENDS IN PRODUCTION/OPERATIONS MGMTSome of the recent trends are: Global Market Place Production/operations Strategy Total quality Management (TQM) Flexibility Time Reduction Technology Worker Involvement Re-engineering: Reengineering could also be interpreted as reverse engineering, in which the characteristics of an already engineered product are identified, such that the product can perhaps be modified or reused. Environmental Issues Corporate Downsizing (or Right sizing): It has been forced on firms to shed their obesity. It has become necessary due to competition, lowering productivity, need for improved profit and for higher dividend payment to shareholders. Supply-chain mgmt Lean Production. (use of minimal amounts of resources to produce a high volume of high quality goods with some variety.)Organization of Production function Competitive advantage is believed that a firm, strong in competitive advantage, whatever the constraints or restraints. Production function can offer competitive advantage to a firm in the following areas: Shorter new-product-lead time. More inventory turns. Shorter manufacturing lead time. Greater Flexibility Better customer service. Reduced Wastage.Role of Operations in Strategic Management A strategy is a way of doing something. It usually includes the formulation of a goal and a set of action plans for accomplishing of the goal. Strategic Management: the process of formulating, implementing and evaluating business strategies to achieve organizational objectives. A comprehensive definition is that set of managerial decisions and actions that determines the long-term performance of a corporation. It involves environmental scanning, strategy formulation, strategy implementation, evaluation and control.

STRATEGIC MANAGEMENTIt involves five steps:1. Select the corporate mission and major corporate goals.2. Analyze the opportunities and threats or constraints that exist in the external environment. Also analyze the strengths and weaknesses that exist in internal environment.3. Formulate strategies that will match the organization's strengths and weaknesses that exist in internal environment.4. Implement the strategies.5. Evaluate and control activities to ensure that the organizations objectives are achieved.STEP-1 PROCESS OF STRATEGY MANAGEMENT It begins with selecting corporate mission and corporate goals and ends with monitoring the activities of the organization. The first step in strategic management process is selecting or crafting corporate mission and corporate goal. A mission statement is description or declaration of why a company is in operation (exists), which provides the framework within which strategies are formulated. A typical mission statement contains three components:*a statement, its reason for existence.*a statement of the key values or guiding standards on which the operations takes place.*a statement of major goals or objectives. A Mission statement is description or declaration of why a company is in operation (exists), which provides the framework within which strategies are formulated. A Mission statement contains three components, a statement , its reason for existence; a statement of the key values or guiding standards on which the operations take place and a statement of major goals or objectives. A mission statement is a formal, short, written statement of the purpose of a company or organization. The mission statement should guide the actions of the organization, spell out its overall goal, provide a sense of direction, and guide decision-making. It provides "the framework or context within which the company's strategies are formulated. In simplest terms, the mission is why you exist, and vision is what you want to be. McDonalds - "To provide the fast food customer food prepared in the same high-quality manner world-wide that is tasty, reasonably-priced & delivered consistently in a low-key dcor and friendly atmosphere STEP-2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING The environment of an organization comprises both external and internal factors. Environment needs to be scanned in order to determine trends and projections of factors that will affect fortunes of the organization. Scanning must focus on task environment. Scanning helps identify threats and opportunities prevailing in the environment . In formulating a strategy , a company seeks to take advantage of the opportunities while minimizing the threats.STEP-3 STRATEGY FORMULATION Strategies are formulated at four levels:1. Corporate level: It is formulated by top management to oversee the interests and operations of an organization made up of more than one line of business.2. Global level: Companies may be able to increase their profitability.3. Business unit level: A Business unit is an organizational subsystem that has a market ,a set of competitors, and a goal distinct from those of the other subsystem in the group and4. Functional level: Functional strategies identify the basic courses of action that each of the department must pursue in order to help the business unit to attain its goals. Corporate strategy is about the overall business of the firm encompassing things like resource allocation across the business units. Business strategy is about how a bit of a business competes within it's own environment (eg for a biotech firm how its biopharma / bioagriculture/biochem divisions operate within the company). Such a strategy must be geared towards success. An organization can achieve high growth and profits by creating a strategy that provides diversity on the cheap (e.g. IKEA). IKEA is an acronym: Ingvar Kamprad, Elmtaryd, Agunnaryd. Ingvar Kamprad grew up at Elmtaryd in AgunnarydIKEA sells household furnishings. Its furniture comes in "knock down" form and has to be assembled by the customer. This saves space in transportation and assembly costs. The cost saving is passed on to the customer, hence prices are cheaper. If customers want their furniture assembled, the various outlets will do that --- for an assembly and transportation charge. Operational Strategy is about how an organization delivers on a small scale, "operational level"Corporate level strategies1. Growth Strategies- internal growth, Horizontal integration (Horizontal integration occurs when a firm is being taken over by, or merged with, another firm which is in the same industry and in the same stage of production as the merged firm, e.g. a car manufacturer merging with another car manufacturer. ), Horizontal related Diversification, Conglomerate diversification (multi-industry company ), Vertical integration of related businesses, Vertical integration of unrelated businesses, Mergers, Strategic Alliances.2. Stability Strategy:3. Retrenchment Strategies- Turnaround, Divestment, Liquidation.

GLOBAL LEVEL STRATEGY Companies may be able to increase profit by producing goods and services in other countries at lower cost or better differentiate their product or service with their competitors.

Increasing profit through global expansion is possible due to:

Location economies: Philips, nokia manufactures products in china due to low cost labor.

Experience curve: It refers to the systematic decrease in production costs that have been observed to occur over the life of a product.

Transferring distinctive competencies: Toyotas distinctive competencies allow it to produce high quality, well designed cars at a lower cost than any other company in the world. Leveraging the skills of global subsidiaries: Global level strategies: international strategy, Multidomestic strategy, Global strategy (as defined in business terms is an organization's strategic guide to globalization ) and transnational strategy (The firm seeks to combine the benefits of global-scale efficiencies with the benefits of local responsiveness. Interchange still occurs between the home base and foreign subsidiary and between foreign subsidiaries - a process known as global learning) . BUSINESS UNIT LEVEL STRATEGY A single company that operates within one industry is also considered a business unit. For Example: An independent company that builds and sell swimming pools is considered a business unit. Siyaram Silk Mills(4%-5% mkt share.), Govind Rubber (focus on exports), Balakrishna Industries (Auto parts to be export).

STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATIONSTEP-4 Strategies formulated need to be implemented. Implementation is the logical step to formulation, the two differ in two ways: Strategy Formulation: It is primarily an intellectual process. Requires good intuitions and analytical skills. Requires co-ordination among a few individuals Strategy Implementation: Is positioning forces before action. Is managing forces during the action. Focuses on effectiveness. Focuses on efficiency. Requires special motivation and leadership skills. Requires co-ordination among many persons.IMPLEMENTING STRATEGIESIt requires actions such as altering sales territories, adding new departments, closing facilities, hiring new employees, changing an organizings pricing strategy, developing financial budgets, formulating new employees benefits, establishing cost-control procedures, changing advertising strategies, building new facilities, training new employees, transferring managers among divisions and building better computer information system etc.STRATEGY EVALUATIONSTEP-5

Strategy evaluation helps determine the extent to which the companys strategies are successful in attaining its objectives. Basic activities in strategy evaluation: Establishing performance targets, standards and tolerance limits for the objectives, strategies and implementation plans. Measuring the performance in relation to the targets at a given time. If outcomes are outside the limits, inform managers to take action. Analyze deviations from acceptable tolerance limits.

Business strategy: refers to the aggregated strategies of single business firm or a strategic business unit (SBU) in a diversified corporation. According to Michael Porter, a firm must formulate a business strategy that incorporates cost leadership, differentiation, or focus to achieve a sustainable competitive advantage and long-term success. Alternatively, according to W. Chan Kim, an organization can achieve high growth and profits by creating a Blue Ocean Strategy that breaks the previous value-cost trade off by simultaneously pursuing both differentiation and low cost. Functional strategies: include marketing strategies, new product development strategies, human resource strategies, financial strategies, legal strategies, supply-chain strategies, and information technology management strategies. The emphasis is on short and medium term plans and is limited to the domain of each departments functional responsibility. Each functional department attempts to do its part in meeting overall corporate objectives.

ELEMENTS OF PRODUCTION/OPERATIONS STRATEGYOperations strategy comprises six components:1. Positioning the production system2. Focus of factories and service facilities3. Product/service design and development.4. Allocation of resources to strategic alternatives, and5. Facility planning, Capacity, location and layout6. Technology selection and process development

BUILDING COMPETITIVE PRIORITIES: Strategy Formulation is a key element of business strategy and production strategy. Quality based strategies focus on satisfying the customer by integrating quality into all phases of the firm. Time-based strategies focus on reducing the time required to complete various activities (for .e.g. develop new products or services and market them, respond to change in customer demand or deliver a product or a service). By reducing time, costs are also reduced, productivity is increased, quality tends to be better, innovative products are launched to the market and customer service is improved.COMPETITIVE PRIORITIES: The companies have positioned themselves to compete on cost, quality, flexibility and speed. Competing on cost : low cost. Competing on Quality : High Performance design, High Quality, Consistent Quality. Competing on Flexibility : Variety, Volume. Competing on Speed : Rapid Delivery, On-time delivery.

STRATEGY FORMULATION Strategy Formulation is a key element of business strategy and production strategy. Quality based strategies focus on satisfying the customer by integrating quality into all phases of the firm. Time-based strategies focus on reducing the time required to complete various activities (for .e.g. develop new products or services and market them, respond to change in customer demand or deliver a product or a service). By reducing time, costs are also reduced, productivity is increased, quality tends to be better, innovative are launched to the market and customer service is improved.

Production and Operations strategy:According to Slack and Lewis, operations strategy holds the following definition:is the total pattern of decisions which shape the long-term capabilities of any type of operations and their contribution to the overall strategy, through the reconciliation of market requirements with operations resources.Operations strategy is the tool that helps to define the methods of producing goods or a service offered to the customer.

CORPORATE STRATEGY is the direction an organization takes with the objective of achieving business success in the long term. Recent approaches have focused on the need for companies to adapt to and anticipate changes in the business environment, i.e. a flexible strategy.

Production and Operations strategy :

The production and operation strategy is derived from the business strategy that relates to products, processes, methods, operating resources, quality, costs, lead times and scheduling. Production strategy must be consistent with the business strategy and formulated to support the goals of the business organization. Production and operations strategy may have a major influence on the competitiveness of an organization. A core competency is fundamental knowledge, ability, or expertise in a specific subject area or skill set. Companies with specific strengths in the marketplace, such as data storage or the development of accounting applications, can be said to have a core competency in that area. The core part of the term indicates that the individual has a strong basis from which to gain the additional competence to do a specific job or that a company has a strong basis from which to develop additional products.

IMPORTANCE/BENEFITS OF STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT Strategic management offers both financial as well as non-financial benefits to an organization: It allows for identification, prioritization and exploitation of opportunities. It provides an objective view of management problems. It represents a framework for improved co-ordination and control of activities. It allows more effective allocation of time and resources to identified opportunities. It creates a framework for internal communications among personnel. It gives encouragement to forward thinking. It gives encouragement to forward thinking.

Competitive priorities / OMs Emergence as a fieldIn the late 1950s and early 1960s scholars began to deal specifically with operations management as opposed to industrial engineering or operations research. Writers such as Edward Bowman and Robert Fetter (Analysis for production and operations management [1957]) and Elwood S.Buffa (Modern production management [1961]) noted the commonality of problems faced by all productive systems and emphasized the importance of viewing production operations as a system. They also stressed the useful applications of waiting-line theory, simulation, and linear programming, which are now standard topics in the field. In 1973, chase and Aquilanos first edition of this book stressed the need to put the management back into operations management and suggested the need to put the management back into operations management and suggested the lifecycle as a means of organizing the subject.Computers and the MRP CrusadeThe major development of the 1970s was the broad use of computers in operations problems. For manufacturers, the big breakthrough was the application of materials requirements planning (MRP) to production control. This approach ties together in a computer program all the parts that go into complicated products. This program then enables production planners to quickly adjust production schedules and inventory purchases to meet changing demands for final products. Clearly, the massive data manipulation required for changing schedules on products with thousands of parts would be impossible without such programs and the computer capacity to run them. The promotion of this approach (pioneered by Joseph Orlicky of IBM and consultant Oliver Wight) by the American production and Inventory Control Society (APICS) has been termed the MRP Crusade.JIT TQC and Factory Automation The 1980s saw a revolution in the management philosophies and the technologies by which production is carried out. Just In Time (JIT) production is the major break-through in manufacturing philosophy. Pioneered by the Japanese, JIT is an integrated set of activities designed to achieve high-volume production using minimal inventories of parts that arrive at the workstation just in time. This philosophy coupled with total quality control (TQC), which aggressively seeks to eliminate causes of production defects is now a corner stone in many manufacturers production practices.As profound as JITs impact has been factory automation in its various forms promises to have even greater impact on operations management in coming decades. Such as computer integrated manufacturing (CIM), flexible manufacturing systems (FMS), and factory of the future (FOF) are already familiar to many and are becoming everyday concepts to OM practitioners.Manufacturing Strategy Paradigm:The late 1970s and early 1980s saw the development of the Manufacturing Strategy Paradigm by researches at the Harvard Business School. This work by professors William Abernathy, kim Clark, Robert Hayes, and Steven Wheelwright (built on earlier efforts by Wickham Skinner) emphasized how manufacturing executives could use their factories capabilities as strategic competitive weapons. The paradigm itself identified how what we call the five Ps of production management can be analyzed as strategic and tactical decision variables. Central to their thinking was the notion of factory focus and manufacturing trade-offs. They argued that because a factory cannot excel on all performance measures, its management must derive a focused strategy, creating a focused factory that does a limited set of tasks extremely ell. This raised the need for making trade-offs among such performance measures as low cost, high quality, and high flexibility in designing and managing factories.Service Quality and ProductivityThe great diversity of service industries- ranging from airlines to zoos, with about 2,000 different types in between- precludes identifying any single pioneer or developer that has made a major impact across the board in these areas. However, one service companys- cDonalds-unique approach to quality and productivity has been so successful that it stands as a reference point in thinking about how to deliver high-volume standardized services. In fact, McDonalds operating system is so successful that the president of Chaparral Steel used it as model in planning the companys highly efficient minimills.Total Quality Management and Quality Certification:The unquestioned major development in the field of operations management, as well as in management practice in general, is total quality management (TQM). Though practiced by many companies in the 1980s, TQM became truly pervasive in the 1990s. All operations executives are aware of the quality message put forth by the so-called quality gurus-W.edards Deming, Joseph M. Juran, and Philip Crosby Helping the quality movement along is the Baldrige National Quality Award, which as started in 196 under the direction of the American Society of Quality Control and the National Institute of Standards and Technology. The Baldrige Award recognizes up to five companies a year for outstanding quality management systems.The ISO 9000 certification standards put forth by the International Organization for Standardization now play a major role in setting quality standards for global manufacturers in particular Man Europeans companies require that vendors meet these standards as a condition for obtaining contracts.Business Process Reengineering:The need to become lean to remain competitive in the global economic recession in the 1990s pushed companies to seek major innovations in the processes by which they run their operations. The flavor of business process reengineering (BPR) is conveyed in the title of Michael Hammers influential article Reengineering Work: Dont Automate, Obliterate. The approach seeks to make revolutionary changes as opposed to evolutionary changes (which are commonly advocated in TQM). It does this by taking a fresh look at what the organization is trying to do in all its business processes, and then eliminating nonvalue-added steps and computerizing the remaining ones to achieve the desired outcome.Electronic Enterprise:The recent quick adoption of the Internet and the World Wide Web during the late 1990s is amazing. Electronic enterprise refers to the use of the Internet as an essential element of business activity. The Internet is an outgrowth of a government network called the ARPANET, which was created in 1969 by the Defense Department of the United States government. The use of Web pages, forms, and interactive search engines is changing the way people collect information, shop, and communicate. Even today, connections to the Internet are relatively inexpensive, and Microsoft and Netscape have led the way by making the Web browsing software virtually free.Supply Chain Management:The idea is to apply a total system approach to managing the flow of information, materials, and services from raw material suppliers through factories and warehouses to the end customer. Recent trends such as outsourcing and mass customization are forcing companies to find flexible ways to meet customer demand The focus is on optimizing those core activities to maximize the speed of response to changes in customer expectations.

Computer Integrated Manufacturing CIM is an umbrella term for the total integration of product design and engineering, process planning and manufacturing by means of complex computer systems. It is a computerized system for production planning, inventory control, or scheduling is often considered part of CIM. By using these powerful computer systems to integrate all phases of manufacturing, from initial customer order to final shipment, firms hope to increase productivity, improve quality, meet customer needs faster, and offer more flexibility. CIM is an important aspect of technology in manufacturing, but it is just one set of tools that helps many manufacturing firms, even those with high wages, remain competitive in the global market place. In the following sections we describe these tools and their potential benefits.Computer Aided Design and ManufacturingCAD is an electronic system for designing new parts or products or altering existing ones, replacing drafting traditionally done by hand. The heart of CAD is a powerful desktop computer and graphics software that allow a designer to manipulate geometric shapes. The designer can create drawings and view them from any angle on a display monitor. The computer can also simulate the reaction of a part to strengthen and stress tests. Using the design data stored in the computers memory, manufacturing engineers and other users can quickly obtain printouts of plans and specifications for a part or product.CAD cuts the cost of product development and sharply reduces the time to market for new products. Analysts can use CAD to store, retrieve and classify data about various parts. This information is useful in creating families of parts to be manufactured by the same group of machines. Computer-aided design saves time by enabling designers to access and modify old designs quickly rather than start from scratch.The component of CIM that deals directly with manufacturing operations is called Computer-aided Manufacturing (CAM). CAM systems are used to design production process and to control machine tools and materials pass through programmable automation. For example, researchers at the Technology/Clothing Technology Corporation are developing a concept to enable clothing manufacturers to create custom clothing. The concept involves using a computer scan of a customers body and a computer- driven machine cut the fabric to fit the customer perfectly. Automated custom clothing goes against established apparel industry procedures, whereby companies cut down dozens of layers of cloth at the same time to hold down labor costs. It has also the advantage of fostering customization and speedy delivery as competitive priorities.A CAD/CAM system integrates the design and manufacturing function by translating final design specifications into detailed machine instructions for manufacturing an item. CAD/CAM is quicker, less error prone than humans, and eliminates duplication between engineering and manufacturing. CAD/CAM systems allow engineers to see how the various parts of a design interact with each other without having to build a prototype.Numerically Controlled MachinesNumerically controlled (NC) machines are large machine tools programmed to produce small to medium-sized batches of intricate parts. Following a preprogrammed sequence of instructions, NC machines drill, turn, bore, or mill many different parts in various sizes and shapes. Currently, NC machines are the most commonly used form of flexible (programmable) automation. Early models received their instructions from a punched tape or card. Computerized numerically controlled (CNC) machines are usually stand-alone pieces of equipment, each controlled by its own microcomputer.Industrial RobotsRobots are glamorous than NC workhorses. The first industrial robot joined the GM production line in 1961. Industrial robots are versatile, computer-controlled machines programmed to perform various tasks. These steel-collar workers operate independently of human control. Most are stationary and are mounted on the floor with an arm that can reach into difficult locations.The robots hand sometimes called an end effector or tool, actually does the work. The has (not shown) can be changed to perform different tasks, including materials handling, spot welding, spray painting, assembly, and inspection and testing. Second-generation robots equipped with sensors that simulate touch and sight have spawned new applications. For example, robots can wash windows, pick fruit from trees, mix chemicals in laboratories, and handle radioactive materials.The initial cost of a robot depends on its size and function. Other potential costs include modifying both product and process to accommodate the robot, preparing the worksite, installing and debugging the robot, and retraining and relocating workers. Benefits from robot installation include less waste materials, more consistent quality, and labor savings. Robots are the drudges of the work force, performing highly repetitive tasks without tiring, taking a lunch break, or complaining.Automated Material HandlingIn both manufacturing and service industries, the choice of how, when, and by whom materials are handled is an important technological decision. Materials handling covers the process of moving, packaging, and storing a product. Moving, handling, and storing materials costs time and money but adds o value to the product. Therefore operations managers are always looking for ways to reduce costs by automating the flow of materials to and from an operation.Whether materials handling automation is justifiable depends on flow strategy. When operations have a flexile flow strategy, job paths vary and there is little repeatability in material handling. Such variability means that workers must move materials and equipment in open-top containers, carts, or lift trucks. However, when operations have a line flow strategy and repeatability is high, handling can be automated. In addition, other types of flexible automation are now available for firms with flow strategies that fall between these two extremes. Lets look at two such technologies: automated guided vehicles and automated storage and retrieval systems.AGVsAn automated guided vehicle(AGV) is a small, driverless, battery-driven truck that moves materials between operations, following instructions from either an onboard or a central computer. Most older models follow a cable installed below the floor, but the newest generation follows optical paths that can go anywhere with aisle space and a relatively smooth floor.The AGVs ability to route around problems such as production bottlenecks and transportation blockages helps production avoid expensive, unpredictable shutdowns. Furthermore, AGVs enable operations managers to deliver parts as they are needed, thus reducing stockpiles of expensive inventories throughout the plant. The automotive industry now uses AGVs in some plants as mobile assembly stands primarily for heavy loads.AS/RSAn automated storage and retrieval system (AS/RS) is a computer-controlled method of storing and retrieving materials and tools using racks, bins, and stackers. With support from AGVs, an AS/RS can receive and deliver materials without the aid of human hands.FLEXIBLE MANUFACTURING SYSTEMA flexible manufacturing system (FMS) is a configuration of computer-controlled, semi-independent workstations where are automatically handled and machine loaded. An FMS is a type of flexible automation system that builds on the programmable automation of NC and CNC machines. Programs and tooling setups can be changed with almost no loss of production time for moving from production of one product to the next. Such systems require a large initial investment($5 million to $20 million) but little direct labor to operate. An FMS system has three key components:1. several computer-controlled workstations, such as CNC machines or robots, that perform a series of operations;2. computer-controlled transport system for moving materials and parts from one machine to another and in an out of the system; and3. loading and unloading stations.Workers bring raw materials for a part family to the loading points, where the FMS takes over. Computer-controlled transporters deliver the materials to various workstations where they pass through a specific sequence of operations unique to each part. The route is determined by the central computer. The goal of using FMS systems is to synchronize activities and maximize the systems utilization. Because automation makes it possible to switch tools quickly, setup times for machines are short. This flexibility often allows one machine to perform an operation when another is down for maintenance and avoids bottlenecks by routing parts to another machine when one is busy.Specific characteristics of this FMS include the following. The computer control room houses the main computer, which controls the transporter and sequence of operations. CNC machines, each with its own microprocessor, control the details of the machining process. AGVs, which travel around and move materials on pallets to and from the CNCs. When the AGVs batteries run low, the central computer directs them to certain spots on the track for recharging. Indexing tables lie between each CNC ad the track. Inbound pallets from an AGV are automatically transferred to the right side of the table, and outbound pallets holding finished parts are transferred to the left side for pickup. A tool changer loads and unloads tool magazines. Each magazine holds an assortment of tools. A machine automatically selects tools for the next specific operation. An automatic AS/RS (upper right) stores finished parts. The AGV transfers parts on its pallet to an indexing table, which then transfers them to the AS/RS. The process is reversed when parts are needed for assembly into finished products elsewhere in the plant.

This particular system fits an intermediate flow strategy involving medium-level variety (5 to 100 parts) and volume (annual production rates of 40 to 200 units per part). The system can simultaneously handle small batches of many products. In addition, an FMS can be used a second way: At any given time, an FMS can produce low-variety, high-volume products in much the same way that fixed manufacturing systems do. However, when these products reach the end of their life cycles, the FMS can be reprogrammed to accommodate a different product. This flexibility makes FMS very appealing, especially to operations using a line flow strategy where life cycles are short.A much more popular version of flexible automation is the flexible manufacturing cell (FMC), which is a scaled-down version of FMS that consists of one or a very small group of NC machines that may or may not be linked to a materials handling system controlled by a computer, which moves parts to the appropriate machines, as does the more sophisticated FMS.

Nature of International Operations Management / World Class Manufacturing:

The concern for improving performance continuously and rapidly in line with the increasing global competition is gathering momentum. If a system fails to give desirable results then the fault is not with the culture or the level of technology or labour. It is due to ineffective and incorrect performance measures used. Hence identification and definition of right type of performance measures are to be given a top most priority. World Class Manufacturing concept is of the recent origin following the attributes of World Class Manufacturing aim to fulfill the customer demands.1. Products with high quality2. Products at competitive price.3. Products with several enhance features.4. Products in a wider variety.5. Products deliver with shorter time.6. Products delivered on time.7. Flexibility in fulfilling the product demand.These performance measures are external to the manufacturing system but highly essential for the success of the company. These can be measured internally. Companies must set up the performance measure in these lines, so that the product will have the high level of acceptance at customer points.The success of the company in the face of stiff competition is a direct consequence of its manufacturing function having a superior performance measurement system over its competitors. Under World Class Manufacturing, the companies product should have a specification closer to the customer needs than those made by any competitor, they should reach the customer error free, get deliver in a need time faster than any other competitor and should always be delivered at the promised due dates.

ISSUES IN INTERNATIONAL OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT1. Sourcing and vertical integration.2. Facilities location.3. Standardization of production facilities.4. Contract manufacturing.5. Supply chain management.6. Managing service operations.7. International quality standards.8. Internationalization of R&D and,9. Managing technology transfers.

SOURCING AND VERTICAL INTEGRATION

Sourcing refers to series of steps and processes a firm uses to acquire the required components to produce goods and service. It is called as procuring. The required components / inputs may be manufactured in-house (or) may be outsourced. Make or buy decisions are the important factors in operations strategies. Backward integration: When a firm decides to make all the components in-house. Forward integration: A firm that owns and controls all distribution channels of the firms products. Outsourcing is the act of moving some of a firms internal activities and decision responsibility to external providers.FACILITIES LOCATION

Facility location problem is faced by both new and existing business and its solution is critical to a firms eventual success. For the firm contemplating to locate operations in foreign countries. Factors to be considered are:1. Country factors.2. Technology Factors.3. Product factors.4. Government Policies.

STANDARDIZATION OF PRODUCTION FACILITIES

Another strategic issue relates to Standardization of production facilities. Standardization of production facilities is one of the issues of internal operations management. Companies use same method of production, degree of capital invested, plant layout, control system and the like in all their subsidiaries located in different countries. A Few firms seek to customize their facilities to suit local conditions.

CONTRACT MANUFACTURING Contract manufacturing is an arrangement where an international business, places order with local manufacture companies for producing products, that are expected to sell locally or exported to foreign countries. The aerospace, defense, computer, semiconductor, energy, medical, food manufacturing, personal care, pharmaceutical and automotive fields. Some types of contract manufacturing include CNC machining, complex assembly, aluminum die casting, grinding, broaching, gears, and forging.

SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT A Supply chain is a sequence of an organizations facilities, functions and activities that are involved in producing and delivering a product / service. The sequence begins with basic raw materials supplies and extends all the way to the final customers. The elements are Customer service requirements. Plant and distribution centre network design Inventory management Outsourcing Key customer and supplier relationships Business processes Information systems Organizational designs and training Programmes Performance metrics Performance goals.

MANAGING SERVICE OPERATIONS

The service sectors, called the tertiary sector, is becoming increasingly important in the developed countries and trend is visible in developing countries. An international services business is a firm that transforms resources into an intangible output that creates utility for its customers. Eg: British Airways Capacity Planning: Deciding how many customers the firm will be able to serve at a time. It is crucial in service providing as purchasing of any service involves close customer participation.

INTERNATIONAL QUALITY STANDARDS: Quality refers to the ability of a product / service to consistently meet or exceed customer expectations. Quality should first and foremost be perceived from the customer point of view. Dimensions of quality are: Reliability Serviceability Durability Appearance Customer service and Safety. Any company that distinguishes its product based on any one of the dimensions of quality or group, helps in gaining competitive advantage.

INTERNATIONALISATION OF R&D :

Research and development (R&D) refers to an organized efforts, which are directed towards increasing scientific knowledge and product/ process innovation. Basic Research has the objective of enriching knowledge, without any short-term expectation of commercial applications. Applied research has the objective of achieving consumed applications. It has a problem solving emphasis i.e. ,it is conducted to reveal answers to specific problems. Development is the conversion of the results applied research into useful commercial applications. R&D benefits helps of firms in gaining competitive advantage by bringing new product or service to the market that is different from competitors.

MANAGING TECHNOLOGY TRANSFERS: Management of technology transfers is the final strategic issue in international operations management. Technology transfer is the transfer of systematic knowledge of the manufacturer of a product, for the application of process or for the rendering of a service and does not extend to the mere sale or lease of goods. Transfer of technology from an MNC to its foreign plant is complex, because it is time-consuming, and costly process. The process ranges from R&D to product planning and design. It includes training of personnel, quality control, management practices, marketing skills and service supports. Successful transfer of technology needs cooperation and communication between the transferring and the transfers firms and their respective countries.

Vertical Integration: This type of strategy can be a good one if the company has a strong competitive position in a growing, attractive industry. A company can grow by taking over functions earlier in the value chain that were previously provided by suppliers or other organizations ("backward integration"). This strategy can have advantages, e.g., in cost, stability and quality of components, and making operations more difficult for competitors. However, it also reduces flexibility, raises exit barriers for the company to leave that industry, and prevents the company from seeking the best and latest components from suppliers competing for their business.A company also can grow by taking over functions forward in the value chain previously provided by final manufacturers, distributors, or retailers ("forward integration"). This strategy provides more control over such things as final products/services and distribution, but may involve new critical success factors that the parent company may not be able to master and deliver. For example, being a world-class manufacturer does not make a company an effective retailer.Some writers claim that backward integration is usually more profitable than forward integration, although this does not have general support. In any case, many companies have moved toward less vertical integration (especially backward, but also forward) during the last decade or so, replacing significant amounts of previous vertical integration with outsourcing and various forms of strategic alliances.UNIT-II

FORECASTING, CAPACITY AND AGGREGATE PLANNING

DEMAND FORECASTING: Forecast: A statement about the future. Forecasting: Estimating the future demand for products/services and the resources necessary to produce these outputs. Forecasting defined: Forecasting is the first step in planning. It is defined as estimating the future demand for products and services and the resources necessary to produce these outputs. Estimates of the future demand for products or services are the starting point for the entire sales forecasts

DEMAND FORECAST:

According to Fayol, Forecasting is the essence of management. Its techniques are used in every type of organization may it be government or private, production or service and social or religious. According to McFarland, Forecasts are predictions or estimates of the changes if any in characteristic economic phenomena, which affect ones business plan. Forecasting is the study of internal and external forces that shape demand and supply.

CHARACTERISTICS:

1. It is the basis of planning, production program.2. It is an estimate of sales in the future.3. The basis of forecasting is past trends and present economic conditions.4. Forecasting is done for a particular period.5. It can be in the shape of money or in the shape of a unit of a commodity.6. It depends on market planning, economic, or other factors.7. It tries to find-out lines of profitable investment.8. It helps the firm in planning for trained manpower.9. It tries to arrange appropriate promotional efforts such as advertisement, sales campaign etc.NEED OF DEMAND FORECASTING:

Demand forecasting is needed for:New facility Planning:

Designing and building a new facility (factory) or designing and implementing a new production process, and long-range forecasts of demand for existing. Designing and building a new facility (factory) or designing and implementing a new production process may take as long as five years or even more. These strategic activities are based on long-range forecasts of demand for existing and new products to allow the needed lead time for production and operations managers for plant location, plant layout, installation of machinery and equipments to produce the products and services to meet the demand.

Production Planning: The rate of producing the products must be matched with the demand which may be fluctuating over the time period in the future. Work force scheduling: The forecasts of monthly demand may further be broken down to weekly demands and the workforce may have to be adjusted to meet these weekly demands.Financial Planning: Sales Forecasting are the driving force in budgeting. Sales forecasts provide the timing of cash inflows (sales revenues ) and also provide a basis for budgeting the requirements of cash outflow for purchasing materials, payments to employees and to meet other expenses of power and utilities etc. Hence, sales forecasts help finance manager to prepare budgets taking into consideration the cash inflows and cash outflows.

Workforce Scheduling: The forecasts of monthly demand may further be broken down to weekly demands and the workforce may have to be adjusted to meet these weekly demands. This may be done through reassignment of jobs to workforce, allowing overtime work, layoffs or hiring in order to match the weekly production rates with the weekly demands. Hence, short-range forecasts are needed to enable managers to have the necessary lead time to fine tune the workforce changes to meet the weekly production demands.

TYPES OF FORECAST:1. Technological Forecasts: Concerned with rates of technological progress. It will provide changes will provide many companies with new products and materials to offer for sale.2. Economic forecasts: Statements of expected future business conditions published by governmental agencies.3. Demand Forecasts: Projections of demand for a companys products or services throughout some future period, it provides the basis for the companys planning and control decisions. These forecast drive a companys production capacity and scheduling systems and serve as inputs to financial, marketing and human resource (manpower) planning.

FORECASTING TIME HORIZONS: (i) Short-range forecast: This forecast has a time span of upto one year, but is generally less than three months. It can be even for monthly or weekly forecasts. It is used for planning purchasing, job-scheduling, workforce levels, job assignments and production levels. (ii) Medium-range forecast (or intermediate range): A Medium range or intermediate range forecast generally spans from 3 months to 3 years. It is used in sales planning, production planning and budgeting (quarterly/yearly), cash budgeting and analyzing various operating plans.(iii) Long-range forecast: Generally 3 years or more in time span, long range forecasts are used in new product planning and development, capital expenditure planning and planning for facility location or expansion and research and development.TYPES AND CHARACTERISTICS OF FORECASTS BASED ON TIME HORIZON:

Forecast HorizonApplicationsCharacteristicsForecast Methods

Long-range(3 to 5 yrs. or more)Business planning, Product planning, Capital Planning, Facility planning, Location planningBroad, general,often only qualitativeTechnological, Economic, Demographic, Marketing studies, Judgment.

Medium or intermediate(3 to 3 years)Aggregate Planning, Capital and cash Budgets, Production Planning and budgeting, inventory planning and budgeting.Numerical, not necessarily at the item level. Estimate of reliability needed.Collective opinion, Time series / Regression analysis, judgment.

Short-range(1week to 3 months)Short run adjustment of production and personal levels, purchasing, job scheduling, capacity changes by over time, lay offs etc.May be at the item level for planning of activity level, should be at the item level for purchasing and inventory control.Exponential,Smoothing.

ELEMENTS / REQUIREMENTS OF A GOOD FORECAST:The forecast should be timely. This means that the forecasting horizon must have the time necessary to implement possible changes in production capacity, financial needs etc.(ii) The forecast should be accurate and the degree of accuracy should be known.(iii) The forecast should be reliable.(iv) The forecast should be expressed in meaningful units such as rupees, units of products, machines and skills needed.(v) Techniques should be simple.(vi) The forecast should be in the written form to permit an objective basis for evaluating the forecast once the actual results are known.

SHORT RANGE OBJECTIVES: Objectives are:1. Formulation of production strategy and policy: To Bridge the gap betn demand and supply of a product offered by the firm and to ensure.- The requirements of materials to be purchased on a regular basis.-Optimum utilization of plant and equipments.- Planning the availability of labor on a regular basis.2. Formulation of pricing policy: Demand forecasts enable management to formulate a suitable mechanism for fixing the prices for products to be sold.3. Planning and control of sales: Demand Forecasts facilitate territory design and determination of sales quotas to be assigned to sales people.4. Financial planning: Demand Forecasts Facilities estimating cash inflows and cash outflows for the products which forecasts are made.

MEDIUM OR LONG-RANGE OBJECTIVES:

Long-range planning for production capacity: The installed capacity of the plant is usually based on long-term demand forecasts.(ii) Labor requirements (Employment levels): Employment levels are based on reliable medium /long term demand forecasts so as to optimize the cost of production over the long term planning horizon.(iii) Restructuring the capital structure: Long term forecasts facilitate planning for long term finance requirements at reasonable finanacial coasts and other terms and conditions for obtaining finance from lending institutions as well as planning for internal finanacial resources to meet the long-term financial needs.

STEPS IN DEMAND FORECASTING:

1. Understand the objective of forecasting2. Integrate demand planning and forecasting throughout the supply chain3. Understand and identify customer segments.4. Identify Major factors that influence the demand forecast.5. Determine the appropriate forecasting technique.6. Establish performance and Error Measures for forecast.

STEPS IN FORECASTING PROCESS:

(i) Determine the purpose (objectives) of the forecast: details required in the forecast ,the amount of resources (manpower, computer time, rupees etc.)(ii) Select the items for which forecasts are needed: Determine whether the forecast needed for a single product or for a group of products (Product -line).(iii) Determine the time horizon for the forecast: Short-term, medium term, long term./ monthly, quarterly, or Yearly.(iv) Select the forecasting model (method or technique): Quantitative- Moving Averages, exponential Smoothing and regression analysis. Qualitative techniques such as judgmental or market research method.(v) Gather and analyze the data needed for the forecast:(vi) Prepare the forecast: Using the Selected method.(vii) Monitor the forecast: Monitor the forecast to determine whether it is performed satisfactorily. If not, review the method, assumptions, validity of data and modify the forecast if needed and prepare a revised forecast.

FORECASTING APPROACHES:

The two approaches to forecasting are:(i) Qualitative: It consists mainly of subjective inputs, often of non-numerical description. (ii) Quantitative: It involves either projection of historical data or the development of association models which attempt to use causal variables.

QUALITATIVE METHODS:Methods of Qualitative Forecasting:1. Consumers Survey Method: - Complete Enumeration Survey. - Sample Survey And test marketing. - End-use Method.2. Sales Force Opinion Method:3. Delphi Technique:4. Past Analogy.5. Executive Opinion- 6. Nominal Group Technique- problem solving& decision making method.

QUANTITATIVE DEMAND FORECASTING METHOD: Quantitative/ statistical methods are considered to be superior techniques of demand estimation because:1. The element of subjectivity in this method is minimum.2. Method of estimation is scientific.3. Estimation is based on the theoretical relationship between the dependents and independents variables.4. Estimates are relatively more reliable, and 5. Estimates involves smaller cost.TIME SERIES: Time series forecasting methods are based on analysis of historical data ( time series; a set of observations measured at successive times or over successive periods.) They make the assumption that past patterns in data can be used to forecast future data points. According to Morris Hamburg, A time series is a set of observations arranged in chronological order. According to Kenny And keeping, A Set of data depending on the time is called time series.

METHODS OF TIME SERIES ANALYSIS TIME SERIES Analysis can be done by two methods:1. Simple Average Method: In this model, the arithmetic average of the actual sales for a specific number of recent past time periods is taken as the forecast for the next time period.Simple Average = Sum of demands for all past periods Number of demand periods Semi-Average Method In this method, the original data is divided into two equal parts and averages are calculated for both the parts. These averages are called semi-averages.Moving- Average Method: Moving Average method is a simple device of reducing fluctuations and obtaining trend values with a fair degree of accuracy. In this method, the average value of a number of years (months, weeks or days) is taken as the trend value for thee middle point of the period of moving average. The process of averaging smoothes the curve and reduces the fluctuations.Weighted Moving Average Method Sometimes trend values are determined by using weighted moving average. In this method, the moving totals are multiplied by the weights assigned to them and the weighted moving average is obtained by dividing this product by the sum of the weights.Exponential Smoothing Exponential smoothing models are well known and often used in operations management. The reasons for their popularity are two:(i) They are readily available in standard computer software packages. (ii) They require relatively little data storage and computation.

TYPES OF EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING:i) Single Exponential Smoothing: The equation for creating a new or updated forecast uses two pieces of information: a) Actual demand for the most recent period, and b) The most recent demand forecast.As each time period expires, a new forecast is made:

Forecast of next periods demand = (Actual demand for most recent period) + (1- )(Demand forecast for most recent period).

Exponential Smoothing with trends (Double-Exponential Smoothing): An Exponential Smoothing over an already smoothed time series is called double-exponential smoothing. Double-exponential smoothing allows forecasting data with trends. This method is better at handling trends that are not stationary.iii) Triple-Exponential Smoothing: In the case of non-linear trends, it might be necessary to extend it even to a triple-exponential smoothing. Triple-exponential smoothing is better at handling parabola trends and is normally used for such data.

OVERVIEW OF QUALITATIVE METHODS:1. Jury of Executive Opinion.2. Sales force Composite Method3. Market Research Method (or Consumer Survey Method)4. Other Judge mental Methods: Delphi Method

JURY OF EXECUTIVE OPINION: It is a forecasting technique in which the opinions of a small group of high-level executives (managers) are taken, based on which a group demand is obtained as the forecast.Advantages: Can be used for technological forecasting. Can be used to modify an existing forecast to account for unusual circumstances. Disadvantages: Executive opinion can be costly because it takes valuable executive time. It sometimes gets out of control or gets delayed.

SALES FORCE COMPOSITE METHOD: This is also called as Pooled sales force estimate method. It is based on estimate of expected sales by sales persons. Advantages: The sales force is the group closest to the customers Sales territories often are divided into districts or regions and forecast will be useful in inventory management, distribution and sales force staffing. Disadvantages: Individual biases of sales people may affect the sales forecast (some are optimistic, some are pessimistic.)MARKET RESEARCH METHOD OR CONSUMER SURVEY METHOD: This is a systematic approach to determine consumer interest in a product or service by conducting a consumer survey and sample consumer opinions. This method may be used to forecast demand for the short, medium and long-term.OTHER JUDGE MENTAL METHODS: DELPHI METHOD: In this method, opinions are solicited from a number of other managers and staff personnel. The decision makers consist of a group of 5 to 10 experts who will be making the actual forecast. The staff personnel assist decision makers by preparing, distributing, collecting and summarizing a series of questionnaires and survey results. It is a judgmental method which uses a group process that allows experts to make forecasts.Quantitative ForecastingQualitative Forecasting

1) Quantitative forecasting methods use mathematical models to represent relationships among relevant variables based on historical data and / or known relationships.In contrast, qualitative forecasting methods rely on one or more individuals to generate forecast without using mathematical models alone; e.g., a sales manager may predict future sales for the division based on informal discussions with some customers.

2) Quantitative forecasting models are used in conjunction with historical data to forecast demands (or some other quantity).Qualitative forecasting incorporates the forecasters experiences, intuition, values and personal biases into the forecast.

3) These methods are sometimes referred to as objective forecasting methods because the underlying assumptions of the forecasting model and the data used can be stated precisely, independent of the user. Thus, if two individuals use the same model and same data, they should get the same forecasts.These are considered subjective forecasting methods because there is no way to determine exactly what information is being used by the forecaster and how. Such forecasts are specific to the forecaster and cannot be duplicated by others. For ex: If two individuals attempt to predict the market penetration of a new product, their forecasts will be different because the are Drawing on different experiences and are likely to weight the importance of those experiences differently.

CAPACITY PLANNING:Meaning: Capacity is the rate of productive capacity of a facility. Capacity is expressed as volume of output per time period. Operations manager are concerned with the capacity for reasons:1. They want sufficient capacity to meet customer demand in time.2. Capacity affects cost efficiency of operations, the ease or difficulty of scheduling output and the costs of maintaining the facility.3. Capacity requires an investment of capital.Definition of Capacity planning According to APICS, Capacity planning or capacity requirements planning is the function of establishing, measuring and adjusting limits or levels of capacity. The term capacity Requirements Planning in this context is the process of determining how much labor and machine resource is required to accomplish the tasks of production. It is also defined as Capacity Planning is the study of the level of capacity the organization provides at each stage of the production or service delivery system to meet its objective. Capacity Planning is the process used to determine how much capacity is needed in order to manufacture greater product or begin production of a new product.

Long Range Capacity Planning

LONG RANGE CAPACITY PLANNING: Over the long term,capacity planning relates primarily to strategic issues involving the firms major production facilities. Technology and transferability of the process to other products is also intertwined with the long term capacity planning. Long term capacity planning may evolve when short term changes in capacity are insufficient. For ex: If the firms Addition of a third shifts to its current two-shift plan still does not produce enough output, and subcontracting arrangements cannot be made, One feasible alternative is to add capital equipment and modify the layout of the plant (long term actions). It may even be desirable to add additional plant space or to construct a new facility (long-term alternatives).SHORT RANGE CAPACITY PLANNING: In short term, capacity planning concerns issues of scheduling, labor shifts and balancing resource capabilities. The goal of short-term capacity planning is to handle unexpected shifts in demand in an efficient economic manner. The time frame for short-term capacity planning is frequently only a few days but may run as long as six months.OBJECTIVES OF CAPACITY PLANNING:The decisions taken by operations managers in devising their capacity plans will affect several different aspects of performance: Costs: capacity levels in excess of demand could mean under-utilization of capacity and therefore high unit cost. Revenues: It is also affected by the balance between capacity and demand. Working Capital: It will be affected if an operation decides to build up finished goods inventory prior to demand. Quality: By hiring temporary staff.-disruption to the routine working of the operation. Speed: By the deliberate provision of surplus capacity to avoid queuing. Dependability:- how close demand levels are to capacity. Flexibility:-volume flexibility will be enhanced by surplus capacity.TYPES OF CAPACITY PLANNING: There are two types of capacity planning:1. Rough-cut capacity Planning (RCCP).2. Capacity Requirements Planning (CRP).Rough-cut capacity Planning (RCCP): Rough-cut capacity Planning (RCCP) is very important plan in capacity planning of firm. It takes capacity planning to the next level of detail. The Master Production Schedule (MPS) is the primary source of information for RCCP. RCCP is a medium-range planning aid and is used to verify whether enough available capacity exists at critical resources to accomplish a projected master production schedule. The purpose of RCCP is to check the feasibility of the MPS, provide warnings of any bottlenecks, ensure utilization of work centers, and advise vendors of capacity requirements. RCCP provides aggregate information to top management far enough in advance to permit management to make changes in capacity (i.e. hire more people, buy more equipment) to accomplish a given MPS.Capacity Requirements Planning (CRP): Capacity Requirements Planning (CRP) occurs at the level of the material requirements plan. It is the process of determining in detail the amount of labor and machine resources needed to achieve the required production. Planned orders from the MRP and open shop orders (scheduled receipts) are converted into demand for the time in each work centers accordingly. CRP is the last level of capacity analysis. it is planning and control of the resources needed to produce the requirements generated by the MRP system.Basis of differenceRCCPCRP

1)What1)Projected gross capacity2) Requirements for key resources.1) Projected net capacity2) Requirements for each work center.

2) HowExplode production plan or MPS through resource profiles.Explode MPS and MRP I planned orders through detailed routings combine with current WIP status from shop floor control.

3) WhenAs requir