oop 2012 - predictability & meansurement with kanban
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Metrics, measurement, probabilistic forecasting and setting expectations to enable predictable delivery with Kanban. Track session from OOP 2012 MunichTRANSCRIPT
OOP 2012
MunichJanuary 2012
Predictability & Measurementwith Kanban
David J. AndersonDavid J. Anderson & Associates
Twitter: agilemanager Email: [email protected]
Advanced
Kanban
Book PublishedApril 2010
A 72,000 wordintro to the topic
Available fromdjaa.com
Kanban
2012German
published January, 2011
Translation byArne Roock & Henning Wolf
of IT-Agile
http://www.limitedwipsociety.org
Yahoo! Groups: kanbandev
Yahoo! Groups: kanbanops
http://leankanbanuniversity.com
LinkedIn Groups: Software Kanban
Advanced
Kanban
Delivering predictability with Kanban
requires some different techniques
for different types of work such as
software maintenance and support
or
major project work
Advanced
Kanban
Service-oriented work
Advanced
Kanban
Create a regular delivery cadence
Develop a strong config management capability
Develop capability to deploy effectively
Build code with high quality
Advanced
Kanban
Lead Time Distribution
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101
106
Days
# C
Rs
MARCH
Lead Time Distribution
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Days
CR
s &
Bu
gs
APRIL
OutliersMajority of CRs range 30 -> 55
Understand capability by studying the natural philosophy of the work
Advanced
Kanban
SLA expectation of51 days with 98% on-time
Lead Time Distribution
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Days
CR
s &
Bu
gs
SLA expectation of44 days with 85% on-time
Observe Flow with a spectral analysis histogram of lead time
Mean of 31 days
Advanced
Kanban
44 or 51 days will not be good enough for some feature requests, so offer a package of classes of
service
Advanced
Kanban
Package of Classes with SLAs
As soon as possible Full transparency
100% on-time providing 24 days advance notice
Up to 51 days 98% on-time guarantee
Up to 51 days 50% on-time
Advanced
Kanban
Lead time
Features Delivered
Standard Class Items
Fixed Date Items
Expedite Item
Advanced
Kanban
Allocate capacity across classes of service in order to deliver against anticipated demand
5 4 43 2 2= 20 total
Allocation
10 = 50%
...
+1 = +5%
4 = 20%
6 = 30%
InputQueue
DevReady In Prog DoneDoneIn Prog
DevelopmentAnalysis BuildReady Test
ReleaseReady
Advanced
Kanban
Major Project Work
Advanced
Kanban
Requires all the same underlying data as used in service oriented
work
plus
Advanced
Kanban
Major Project with two-tiered kanban board
Kanban
2012
Observe Flow with a Cumulative Flow Diagram
Device Management Ike II Cumulative Flow
020406080
100120140160180200220240
Time
Fe
atu
res
Inventory Started Designed Coded Complete
WIP
Avg. Lead Time
Avg. Throughput
Kanban
2012
Little’s Law
ThroughputLead Time
WIP=
Kanban
2012
Cumulative Flow andPredictive Modeling with S-Curve
Device Management Ike II Cumulative Flow
020406080
100120140160180200220240
Time
Fe
atu
res
Inventory Started Designed Coded Complete
Typical S-curve
Kanban
2012
Simulating S-Curve with a Z
Device Management Ike II Cumulative Flow
020406080
100120140160180200220240
Time
Fe
atu
res
Inventory Started Designed Coded Complete
20%
60%
20%
Slope in middle3.5x - 5x slope
at ends 5x
Kanban
2012
Track actual throughput against projection
Device Management Ike II Cumulative Flow
020406080
100120140160180200220240
Time
Fe
atu
res
Inventory Started Designed Coded Complete
Track delta between planned and actual
each day
Advanced
Kanban
Unplanned Work Report
Dark Matter
Scope Creep
Kanban
2012
Planning a large project
Device Management Ike II Cumulative Flow
020406080
100120140160180200220240
Time
Fe
atu
res
Inventory Started Designed Coded Complete
Slope in middle3.5x - 5x slope
at ends 5x
Required throughput (velocity)
2006 2008
During the middle 60% of the project schedule we need Throughput (velocity) to average 220
features per month
Kanban
2012
Little’s Law
ThroughputLead Time
WIP=
Target to achieve plan
From observed capability
Treat as Fixed variable
Determines staffing level
Kanban
2012
Changing the WIP limit without maintaining the staffing level ratio represents a change to the way of
working. It is a change to the system design. And will produce a change in the observed ‘common
cause’ capability of the system
Kanban
2012
Plan based on currently observed capability and current working
practices. Do not assume process improvements.
If changing WIP to reduce undesirable effects (e.g.
multitasking), get new sample data (perform a spike) to observe the
new capability
Kanban
2012
ÞWIP = 22, round up to 25.5 teams, 5 per team
Þ If current working practice is 1 unit WIP per person then 5 people are needed to per team
Little’s Law
55 / week0.4 week
WIP=
Target to achieve plan
From observed capability
Determines staffing level
Advanced
Kanban
Conclusions
Advanced
Kanban
For Service-oriented work, create predictability with
a regular delivery cadencea strong config management capability
capability to deploy effectivelycode with high quality
For major projects
understand peak throughput (velocity)model the s-curve on work complete
treat the avg. lead time as the fixed variableuse Little’s Law to calculate WIP limits
and staffing levels
Advanced
Kanban
About…David Anderson is a thought leader in managing effective software teams. He leads a consulting, training and publishing business dedicated to developing, promoting and implementing sustainable evolutionary approaches for management of knowledge workers.
He has 30 years experience in the high technology industry starting with computer games in the early 1980’s. He has led software teams delivering superior productivity and quality using innovative agile methods at large companies such as Sprint and Motorola.
David is the author of two books, Agile Management for Software Engineering – Applying the Theory of Constraints for Business Results, and Kanban – Successful Evolutionary Change for your Technology Business.
David is a founder of the Lean Kanban University, a business dedicated to assuring quality of training in Lean and Kanban throughout the world.
http://leankanbanuniversity.comEmail: [email protected] Twitter: agilemanager