only shallow thoughts discriminate : a relative from a

Only shallow thoughts discriminate : a relative from a stranger.

For those who live magnanimously, the entire world constitutes but a family.

ॐ

सरे्व भर्वनु्त सुखिनः , सरे्व सनु्त ननरामयाः ।

सरे्व भद्रानि पश्यनु्त , मा कनिद्दुःिभाग्भरे्वत् ।

ॐ शाखन्तः शाखन्तः शाखन्तः

॥

May everyone be happy here, may all be free from disability, May all attain welfare, let nobody be subject to suffering.

Peace, Peace, Peace……

अयं बनु्धरयं नेनत गिना

लघुचेतसां | उदारचररतानां तु

र्वसुधैर्व कुटुम्बकं ||

1

Hitopadesha V 1.3.71

Brihadaaranyaka Upanishad 1.4.14

Evaluating the impact of change on livelihoods of poor communities in

central India: A novel approach

Alark Saxena PhDAssociate Research Scientist and Lecturer,

Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies

Program Director, Yale Himalaya Initiative

Presentation Structure

• Introduction

• Theory

• Methods

• Findings

• Conclusions

• Next Steps

3


• Introduction

• Theory

• Methods

• Results

• Conclusions

• Next Steps

4

Sustainability, Poverty, Environment & Climate Change

5


• Introduction

• Theory

• Methods

• Results

• Conclusions

• Next Steps

6

Theory

1. Sustainability-Interdisciplinarity

2. Sustainable Livelihood Framework

3. Social Ecological Resilience

4. Complex Systems

5. Modeling and Simulation

7

Operationalizing Resilience Analysis

• Retrospective – More qualitative analysis

– Case studies and historical analysis

• Forward Looking Analysis– Quantitative

– Roots in engineering and ecology

8

Objective

Measure the resilience of livelihoods of communities to change:

1. Measure livelihoods at village level

2. Model livelihoods at a village level (complex system)

3. Through modeling -measure resilience to change

9


• Introduction

• Theory

• Methods

• Results

• Conclusions

• Next Steps

10

Methods

• Operationalization of Resilience

• Case Study

• Modeling Resilience

11

Methods-Operationalizing Resilience

• Step 1- Of What

• Step 2 - To What

• Step 3 - Analysis

• Step 4 - Management

12

Four-Step Resilience Analysis as proposed by Walker et. al. (2002)

Forward looking– Four Step Cross Scale Resilience Analysis (CSRA)

Methods


• Case Study (CSRA)


13

Methods -Case Study- CSRA

• Step 1– Resilience of What

– Description of Panchayat

– Sustainable Livelihood Framework

• Step 2- Resilience to What

– Identification of Vulnerability

– Scenarios

• Step 3- Resilience Analysis

– Modeling and Simulation

14

15

O’Brien et. al. (2004)

CSRA Step 1 – “Resilience of what”General Description

S. No. Details Data

1. Agro-climatic zone Hot sub-humid (dry) eco-region

2. Forest type Dry Deciduous (Mixed) Forests (IVb) Young

3. Land quality Poor productivity

4. Total number of households 6 villages -319 HH (roughly 1850)

5. Landless households 42%

6. Average land size 2.82 (0.7 Irri; 2.12 dry) Acres =1.13 Ha

7. Average household Size 5.8

8. Households using fuelwood 100%

16







– Scenarios



17

Sustainable Livelihood Framework (SLF)

Fig incorporated from Baumann and Sinha (2001)

18

Conceptual diagram to merge CSRA & SLF

Incomes category

Income comprising of Percentage value

Income from Agriculture

Income from Agriculture production + Income from Agriculture labor

19239/- (24%)

Income from Non-farm labor

Income from quarries, Income from NREGS, Income from Forest works etc

14713/- (18%)

Income from Forest

Income from NTFP+ Income from monetization of fuelwood and timber

20126/- (25%)

Income from Migration

Income from short term migration+ Income from long term migration

25576/- (32%)

Scenarios

Govt. Policies Political

Capital Weather

Scenario 1Unfavorable

Favorable Favorable


Favorable Unfavorable


Unfavorable Unfavorable

Scenario 4Favorable

Favorable Favorable

Scenario 5Favorable


Scenario 6Favorable


Scenarios Vulnerabilities Benefits

Scenario 1 26.7% 38%

Scenario 2 40.4% 8.8%

Scenario 3 77.0% 8.8%

Scenario 4 2.0% 81.9%

Scenario 5 15.7% 52.2%

Scenario 6 77.0% 8.8%

Describe the system i.e. (processes, structures, actors and resources) using the asset based livelihood framework.

Identify vulnerabilities associated to various assets, policies, institutions and processes.

Develop scenarios based on the combination of major vulnerabilities

Conduct Resilience analysis i.e. evaluate scenarios by looking at the level of impact and the ability of the system to buffer those impacts

STEP-1

STEP-2

STEP-3

Data Collection

20

1. Census 4 years of 319 HHs2. Panel data for 150+ variables

Livelihoods

21

16%

8%

18%

26%

6%7%

18%

1%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

AgricultureCrops

Farm Labor Non-farmLabor

Long -Migration

Short -Migration

NTFP Wood Loans

Percentage Income

Mean (4yrs) Annual Income of HHs

22= $13501$ = 60Avg. = 80,863







– Scenarios



23

CSRA Step 2- Vulnerability “To What”

1. Weather patterns

2. Change in political capital

3. Implementation of the national park

guidelines

24

Top 3 out of 8 through vulnerability Ranking







– Scenarios



25

Scenarios

Scenarios National Park Policy

PoliticalCapital

Weather Patterns

Scenario 1 - + +

Scenario 2 - + -

Scenario 3 - - -

Scenario 4 + + +

Scenario 5 + + -

Scenario 6 + - -

26

Summary of Scenarios

Scenarios Vulnerable Beneficial

Scenario 1 27% 38%

Scenario 2 40% 9%

Scenario 3 77% 9%

Scenario 4 2% 82%

Scenario 5 15% 52%

Scenario 6 77% 9%

27

Percentages rounded to the closest whole number

Methods


• Case Study (CSRA)


28







– Scenarios



29

Modeling Complex Adaptive Systems

30

Borshchev and Filippov , 2004

Method- CSRA Step 3- Resilience Analysis- Modeling

• Complex Systems Modeling

• System Dynamics

31

Stakeholders’ Mental Models of Livelihood Dynamics

32

District

FundsAnnual Funding

to Village

Annual income

of HHCumulative

SavingsHH Exp

Agriculture

Exp

Climate variables

Income

from Agri.

Income

from NTFP

Income from

Migration

+ + + +

+

+

+

+

+

--

-

-

-

+-

market

Political Capital

Financial Capital

Social Capital

Income from Livestock

Forest Policies

Physical Capital

Regional/National

Politics

Social customs

and norms

Agricultural

Policies

Social policies

+

Natural Capital+

+

Method- CSRA Step 3- Resilience Analysis- Modeling and Simulation

Scenario Analysis through simulation

• Establishment of NP in 2020

• Weather (same)

• Political capital (same)

33


• Introduction

• Theory

• Methods

• Results

• Conclusions

• Next Steps

34

Household Incomes from Forest Resources

30,000

24,000

18,000

12,000

6,000

0

3

3

3

3 3 33 3

33 3

3 3 3

2 2 2 2 22

22

2

2

22 2 2

1

1

1 11 1

1

11

1

1

1 11

2008 2018 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 2078 2088 2098 2108

Year

Rs/

HH

*Y

ear

HH Forest income - Scenario Current 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Income from Fuelwood per HH per Year : Current 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Income from NTFP : Current 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 335

Result 1. Grazing, fire and wood extraction have a significant impact on forest

Total Average Household Income and population

110,000 Rs/HH*Year

1,500 HH

55,000 Rs/HH*Year

750 HH

0 Rs/HH*Year

0 HH

44

44 4 4

4

4

3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

2 22 2 2

22

2 2

11

11 1 1

11 1

2008 2028 2048 2068 2088 2108

Avg household income Rs/HH*Year1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Forest resource income Rs/HH*Year2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Govt Labor Rs/HH*Year3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

HHs in Panchayat HH4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 36

Result 2. Reduction in income leads to increased migration

Household Incomes from Forest Resources

30,000

24,000

18,000

12,000

6,000

0

2

2

2

2

2

22 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

1

1

1 11 1

1

11

1

1

1 11

2008 2018 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 2078 2088 2098 2108

Year

Rs/

HH

*Y

ear

HH Forest income - Scenario Current 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

HH Forest income - Scenario NP 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

37

Result 3. National park has a significant impact

Achar growth and income dynamics

50 Trees/Ha

10 Kg/HH

25 Trees/Ha

5 Kg/HH

0 Trees/Ha

0 Kg/HH

4

44

4 4 4 4 4 4 4

3

3

3

3

3 3

3 3 3 32 2

2

2 2 2 2 2 2 2

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

2008 2028 2048 2068 2088 2108

Mature Achar Trees- Current Trees/Ha1 1 1 1 1 1

Mature Achar Trees- NP Trees/Ha2 2 2 2 2 2

Average collection of Achar- Current Kg/HH3 3 3 3 3

Average collection of Achar- NP Kg/HH4 4 4 4 4 4

38

Result 4. Forests can bounce back

Average Household Income and Population

120,000 Rs/HH*Year

1,500 HHs

60,000 Rs/HH*Year

750 HHs

0 Rs/HH*Year

0 HHs

4 4

4

44

4 4 4

33

33 3 3 3

3

2

2

22

2

22

2 2

11

11 1 1

11 1

2008 2028 2048 2068 2088 2108

Avg household income- Scenario Current Rs/HH*Year1 1 1 1

Avg household income- Scenario NP Rs/HH*Year2 2 2 2 2

Number of HHs- Scenario Current HHs3 3 3 3 3 3

Number of HHs- Scenario NP HHs4 4 4 4 4 4

39

Result 5- National park have a significant and long term impact on local livelihoods


• Introduction

• Theory

• Methods

• Results

• Conclusions

• Next Steps

40

Conclusions #1

1. Diversity of incomes creates resilience

2. Impact of policy change > weather/market

3. Limiting access can create unintended consequences (e.g. displacement of HH)

4. Vulnerable population unable to migrate can fall into poverty trap

41

Conceptual diagram to merge CSRA & SLF

Incomes category

Income comprising of Percentage value

Income from Agriculture

Income from Agriculture production + Income from Agriculture labor

19239/- (24%)

Income from Non-farm labor

Income from quarries, Income from NREGS, Income from Forest works etc

14713/- (18%)

Income from Forest

Income from NTFP+ Income from monetization of fuelwood and timber

20126/- (25%)

Income from Migration

Income from short term migration+ Income from long term migration

25576/- (32%)

Scenarios

Govt. Policies Political

Capital Weather


Favorable Favorable





Scenario 4Favorable

Favorable Favorable

Scenario 5Favorable


Scenario 6Favorable


Scenarios Vulnerabilities Benefits

Scenario 1 27% 38%

Scenario 2 40% 9%

Scenario 3 77% 9%

Scenario 4 2% 90%

Scenario 5 16% 52%

Scenario 6 77% 9%

Describe the system i.e. (processes, structures, actors and resources) using the asset based livelihood framework.

Identify vulnerabilities associated to various assets, policies, institutions and processes.

Develop scenarios based on the combination of major vulnerabilities

Conduct Resilience analysis i.e. evaluate scenarios by looking at the level of impact and the ability of the system to buffer those impacts

STEP-1

STEP-2

STEP-3

Contributions #2• Unique methodology and a tool

– Better policy decisions

– Designing, implementation and monitoring of resilience projects

• Focuses on bottom up approach (village level)

• Can integrate other dynamics and data

• Can be integrated into higher resolution climate models

43


• Introduction

• Theory

• Methods

• Findings

• Next Steps

44

Research

Average Household Income and Population

120,000 Rs/HH*Year

1,500 HHs

60,000 Rs/HH*Year

750 HHs

0 Rs/HH*Year

0 HHs

4 4

4

44

4 4 4

33

33 3 3 3

3

2

2

22

2

22

2 2

11

11 1 1

11 1

2008 2028 2048 2068 2088 2108

Avg household income- Scenario Current Rs/HH*Year1 1 1 1

Avg household income- Scenario NP Rs/HH*Year2 2 2 2 2

Number of HHs- Scenario Current HHs3 3 3 3 3 3

Number of HHs- Scenario NP HHs4 4 4 4 4 4

Tipping Points/ Transformations / Pathways at local HH scales

45

Application

46

Thank You!

ॐ

द्द्योः शान्ति अिरिकं्ष शान्तिोः

पृथिवी शान्ति आपोः शान्ति औषधय: शान्तिोः

वनस्पतयोः शान्तिथविशे्वदेवाोः शान्तिर्ब्िह्म शान्तिोः

सवं शान्तिोः शान्तििेव शान्तिोः सामा शान्तििेथध |

ॐशान्ति : शान्ति : शान्ति :॥

May peace radiate in the whole sky as well as the vast ethereal space.

May peace reign all over this earth, in water, herbs, trees and creepers.

May peace flow over the whole universe. May peace be in the Supreme Being.

And may there always exist in all peace and peace alone.

peace, peace and peace to us and all beings!

47

Yajurveda 36:17

Village Landscape

48

Unfavorable Weather

• Loss of agriculture production

• Reduced farm labor due to loss of agriculture

• Reduced incomes from NTFP

• Increased migration

49

Unfavorable Political Capital

• Reduced government sponsored projects

• Reduced access to forest resources

• Reduced compensation for loss of crops

50

Implementation of National Park

• Protection of regeneration from fire and grazing

• Ban on collection of NTFP, fuelwood, grazing etc.

• Ban on labor (from quarries) due to buffer zone

• Loss of crops due to wildlife raids

• Limited increase in employment opportunities

51

Income from Forest Resources

<AverageTimber>

<Avg collection of

Mahua>

<Avg collection of

Tendu Fruits><Avg Collection of

Tendu Leaves>

Current Price of

Timber

HH Income from Timber

Current Price of

Fuelwood

Current Price of

Tendu Patta

Current Price of

Tendu Fruit

Current Price of

Mahua

Current Price of

achar

HH Income from

Fuelwood

HH Income from Tendu

Patta

HH Income from

Tendu Fruits

HH Income from Mahua

HH Income from

Achar

HH Income

from Forest

Resources

<Finished dried Kernel

(Achar) for Sale>

HH Income from

Wood Extraction

52

General Dynamics of NTFP Resources

No. of mature trees

per Ha

Productivity

Total production

fruits

+

+

Cumulative extraction

of produce

Avg collection of

produce+

Seeds left for

regeneration

-

+

Percentage seed

available to collect

+

+

+

Saplings

established Young Trees

R1

B1

Competition

Factor

+

B2

Establishment of

Saplings

-

+

Survival

Death due toDisturbance (Grazing

and Fire)Death Rate of Young

Tree (Fire and Logging)

Maturing Rate

Death Rate (Unsustainable

Harvesting and Logging)

--+

-

+B4

+-

B7

+B3+

-

B6

B5

+

Age to survive

-

Age to Mature

-

+

<Weather>

<Number of

HHs>

-

+

53

Other Dynamics

54

No. of mature trees

per Ha Tendu

Total production

of seeds Tendu

+


of seeds Tendu

Avg collection of

Tendu Fruits per HH

+

Seed left for

regeneration Tendu

-

+

+

+

Saplings

established Tendu

Total production

of leaves Tendu

+

Young Tendu

trees with roots

Tree Roots

per Ha

++

Root Decay

Death Tendu (Fire

and Logging)

No. of Rootsuckers

per Root per year

+

+

Total production of leaves

from Saplings Tendu

+

+

Avg Collection of Tendu

Leaves per HH per Year

+

Competition

Factor Tendu

+

R1

B1B2

R2

R3

Establishment of

saplings Tendu

-

+

+

Death due to distrubance

Tendu (Fire and Grazing)

-

-

-

Tendu

Productivity

+

Weather

Death rate Tendu

-

+

B3

Sapling to

juvinile maturing

+

-

B4 +

Juvnile maturing

age tendu -

+B5

Maturing

rate Tendu

+

-B6

+

Maturing age

Tendu

-

+

B7

+ B8

Percentage seed available

to collect Tendu

Percentage leaves

available to collect Tendu

+

+ +

<Number of

HHs>

-

+

Income from

labor - Govt

Percnt HH Willing to

work for Govt

Distance of work from

the village- Govt

Wage per day -

Govt

+

Interest of the Sarpanch

to get government works

Ease of work

+

Average Workdays

available - Govt

+

Number of current works

sanctioned in the region

+

Level of

Bureaucratic support

Political Pressure

Nature of work-

Govt

R1

B1

<Labour work days

availability ratio> +

Average completion

rate of works

-

Average work days per

Work sanctioned

Total days available for

work through project+

+

+

+

Trust

+

+

Political Capital

+

B2

R2

-

+

Number of days

used

++

+

Work in pipleine to

be sanctioned

+

+

Work finished - Govt+

B3

-

--

B4

+

-

B5

<Number of

HHs>

-

Income from govt. projects

Number of HHsNew Households Migrating

Households

+

+

+

-

Population Growth Rate

Migration Rate

+

R1 B1

+

Population Dynamics

Avg. total

Household Income

Migration rate in

Panchayat

-

+

B1

Migration dynamics

Mature trees/Ha

FTSeedling

established/Ha

FT

Cumulative Logging for

fuelwood per year

Young trees/Ha FT

Sustainabile harvest

index Timber

Percentageof yearly

wood available to collect

Accessibilty for

fuelwood

Cumulative demand

of fuelwood

+

Maturing FT

Average demand for

fuelwood per Year

+

Cumulative Logging

for Timber

Available

Timber

Average demand for

Timber per Year

+

+

+

+

Available Wood

to Collect

+

+

+Average Fuelwood per

HH per Year

+

Cumulative Demand

for timber per year

+

Average Timber per HH

per Year

+

++

Competition

Factor FT

-

+

R1

B1

Death FT due to

fire and Grazing

Establishent

rate FT

Survival FT

- -

B2B3

-

+B4 +

+

B5

Yrs to survive FT

-

+

Yrs to mature FT

-

B6

-

+

Trees

Dying FT

Max Age of Trees

+

-

B7

-

-

<Number of

HHs>

+

+

Forest Growth models

No. of mature trees

per Ha

Productivity

Total production

fruits

+

+


of produce

Avg collection of

produce+

Seeds left for

regeneration

-

+

Percentage seed

available to collect

+

+

+

Saplings

established Young Trees

R1

B1

Competition

Factor

+

B2

Establishment of

Saplings

-

+

Survival

Death due toDisturbance (Grazing

and Fire)Death Rate of Young

Tree (Fire and Logging)

Maturing Rate

Death Rate (Unsustainable

Harvesting and Logging)

--+

-

+B4

+-

B7

+B3+

-

B6

B5

+

Age to survive

-

Age to Mature

-

+

<Weather>

<Number of

HHs>

-

+

NTFP dynamics

55

Achar growth and income dynamics

20 Trees/Ha

6,000 Rs/HH*Year

50 Kg/HH

3,500 mm/Year

10 Trees/Ha

3,000 Rs/HH*Year

25 Kg/HH

1,750 mm/Year

0 Trees/Ha

0 Rs/HH*Year

0 Kg/HH

0 mm/Year

4

4 4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

3 3

33

33 3 3 3

3 3 3

2

2

22

22

2

2 2

2

22

11

11

1

1 11 1 1

1 1

2008 2018 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 2078 2088 2098 2108

Mature Achar Trees Trees/Ha1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Income from Achar Rs/HH*Year2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Average collection of Achar Kg/HH3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Rainfall Current mm/Year4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

Result 1. NTFP harvest is unsustainable

Dynamics of Government sponsored Labor and Income

400 Days/HH

20 Projects

200 Days/HH

10 Projects

0 Days/HH

0 Projects

44 4

44

44 4 4

3

3 3

3 3 33

3

3 3

2 2 2 22

2

2

2

22

11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

2008 2028 2048 2068 2088 2108

Wage days used- Scenario Current Days/HH1 1 1 1 1

Wage days used- Scenario NP Days/HH2 2 2 2 2 2

Works sanctioned - Scenario Current Projects3 3 3 3 3

Works sanctioned - Scenario NP Projects4 4 4 4 4 4

56

Result 5 – Current govt. efforts inadequate (100 wage days/HH)

Causal-Loop Diagram of Dynamics Between Incomes

57

Income from

Agriculture

Incomefrom Labor

Total Income of avg

household

+

+

Income from Forest

Resources

Income fromLabor

-Government

Income from

Labor-MiningIncome from

Migration

Income from

Short-term Migration

Income from Long

Term Migration+

+

++

+

+

Income from Govt supported

Social Security schemes

+

-

+

-

B1

<Weather>

-

-B2

-

B3 R1

- <PoliticalCapital>

+

+

+

+

Market+

+

CSRA Step 2- Factors affecting livelihoods

Capitals

1. Human -Health of household members

2. Physical - Conditions of infrastructure (Roads, Canals)

3. Financial – Access to credit

4. Social – Harmony amongst the tribal groups

5. Political- Political representation at state / local level

6. Natural- Agriculture (productivity) , Weather

7. Policies -Implementation of the National Park

58

Derived through Focus Group Discussions

Income Categories

Income category Composition Percentage value

Agriculture Crop production + Farm labor 19239/- (24%)

Local non-farm labor Quarries, NREGS, Forest 14713/- (18%)

Forest NTFP + $ Fuelwood & Timber 20126/- (25%)

Migration Short term + long term 25576/- (32%)

59

Case of Achar Collection:

• Unsustainable harvesting

– Lopping

– Premature harvesting

• Lack of regeneration

– Over grazing

– Frequent forest fires

Pictures from wikipedia, flowers of india.net

Factors affecting Achar (Buchnania lanzan ) (collection reduced to 1/3rd in last two decades)

60

Achar Dynamics

Mature Achar

TreesAchar

Production

Achar Collection by

Households

+

+

+

+

-

-

61

Next Steps

• Research – Tipping Points

– Transformations

– Pathways

• Application – Forest PLUS

– 100 Resilient Cities

– Flood Resilience

– LWR Resilience

62

People of Pipaliya Goli

63

64

Funding and Organizational Support

• Aranya, Bhopal• MP Forest Dept• Block Development Office, Raisen

only shallow thoughts discriminate : a relative from a

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