one percent flood levels in new york city: land use, land value, and demographic implications

Andy Yan

One Percent Flood Levels in New York CityLand Use, Land Value, and Demographic Implications

New York CityA History of the Land

Based upon August 2013 1% Flood FEMA Flood Elevations (Zone AE, AO, and VE), this study combines spatial datasets from:

• NYC Open Data• The City of New York Planning Department

• Citywide Administrative Districts• Land Use Zoning• Primary Land Use Tax Lot Output (PLUTO)

• The City of New York Department of Finance• FY 2014 Final Assessment Roll

• Federal Government• 2010 Census Block Groups

• 2012 Census Estimates for Total Population• 2010 US Census Summary File One

• Note: The estimates and maps in this document are for a high level discussion

Study Methodology and Data Sources

Source: NYC OpenData

New York CityToday

Total Land Mass: 304 Square Miles

New York City100 Year Flood Plain ScenarioFEMA Base Flood Elevation

Total Affected Land Mass: 47 Square Milesor 16 percent of Total City Land Mass


Land Area Under1% Base Flood Elevation

New York CityWhat does 47 square miles look like?

36 Central Parks (1.3 sq miles)About 1 City of San Francisco

(49.9 sq miles)

Source: Google Maps

New York City by BoroughToday

Total Land Area (in square miles):

BoroughTotal Land Area

% of Total Land Area

Bronx 43 14%Brooklyn 70 23%Manhattan 23 8%Queens 109 36%Staten Island 58 19%Total 303 100%


New York City by Borough1 Percent Flood Elevation ScenarioFEMA Base Flood Elevation

Borough

Area (in Square Miles)

Area under Flood Elevation

% of Total Land Mass

Staten Island 58 11 19.5%Queens 109 17 15.8%Brooklyn 70 11 16.3%Manhattan 23 3 14.0%Bronx 43 4 9.9%Total 303 47 15.7%


New York City by Dominant ZoningToday

Type of Dominant Land Use Zoning

% of Land Mass

Battery Park City 0.0%

Commercial 4.8%

Manufacturing 14.1%

Park/Recreational 13.4%

Residential 67.7%

Grand Total 100.0%


New York City by General Land Use ZoningToday


New York City by General Land Use ZoningUnder 1% Flood Elevation


New York City by ZoningUnder 1% Flood Elevation


New York City by General Land Use ZoningArea Under 1% Flood Elevation by Total Zoning Percentage

Note: There is a slight (~1%) data variation in land massbetween Zoning and Land Mass data layersSource: NYC OpenData

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Total

Area Under a 1% Floodplain

New York City by General Land Use ZoningArea Under 1% Flood Elevation by Square Feet

-

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

400,000,000 Area Under a 1% Floodplain


General Land Use (in Square feet)Area Under a 1%

Flood Elevation Total %Large Open Amusement Parks 1,717,679 1,863,201 92%

Waterfront Recreational Activities 9,927,306 18,569,273 54%Light and Heavy Industrial Areas 219,266,535 413,720,947 53%Park 314,966,666 1,095,637,163 29%Battery Park City 1,041,830 3,945,625 26%Manufacturing with 1 or 2 story warehouses characterized by loading bays 115,859,696 764,622,857 15%

Bridging Commercial and Manufacturing Uses 11,878,955 101,772,574 12%One and Two Family Houses 375,105,007 3,458,333,644 11%High-Bulk Commercial Uses Requiring a Central Location 9,431,704 87,373,608 11%

Regional Commercial Centers 14,629,831 142,373,433 10%

Lower-Density Residence Districts 56,915,927 753,243,056 8%

Central Commercial District 2,717,653 36,540,297 7%

High Density Residential 2,008,334 28,313,991 7%

Moderate- and higher-density residence districts 85,735,882 1,410,707,934 6%

Commercial Districts (Predominant Residential) 1,660,534 29,483,626 6%Total* 1,222,863,540 8,346,501,231 14.7%

New York City by General Land Use ZoningArea Under 1% Flood Elevation by Square Footage


Source: NYC PLUTO

• Number of Properties: 64,600 or 7.5% of all properties in the City of New York• Number of Housing Units: 325,000 units or 9% of total City Stock

New York City PropertiesUnder 1% Flood Elevation

Pre-1

800

1801

-190

0

1901

-192

0

1921

-194

5

1946

-197

5

1975

-200

0

2001

-201

3

Data

Unava

liable

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

85 1,191

7,333

15,532

20,666

7,080

4,678

8,793

Buildings in Flood Elevation by Year Built

New York City Individual LandmarksUnder 1% Flood Elevation

Lower Manhattan And NortheasternBrooklyn Inset

• 8 percent of Designated Individual Landmarks

Source: NYC PLUTO

Source: NYC Pluto, NYTimes

Full Value of all Properties in New York City: $1 trillionFull Value of Properties under a 1% Flood Elevation: $111 billionNYC Climate Adaptation Plan Estimated Costs: $20 billion

New York City Property ValuesUnder 1% Flood Elevation

Source: 2010 US Census with 2012 Population Projections

2012 Total Population of New York City: 8.3 million

2012 Total Population living in an 1% Flood Zone in New York City: 1.3 million

23% of Total Population Living under the Flood Elevation is Hispanic vs 18% of Total NYC

60% of Total Households Living under the Flood Elevation are renters vs 47% of Total NYC

New York City PopulationUnder 1% Flood Elevation

Legend

2012 Total Population by Census Block0 - 1,000

1,001 - 2,000

2,001 - 2,500

2,501 - 5,000

5,001 - 11,095

Source: New York City PopulationProjections by Age/Sex & Borough Briefing Booklet, 2006

Gehry Towers76 stories, 903 apartments

At 1,000,000 new residents~438 towers

At 800,000 new residents~263 towers

97 Orchard Street6 stories, 20 apartments

At 1,000,000 new residents~19,608 buildings

At 800,000 new residents~15,686 buildings

More People on Less LandBy 2030, New York City is projected to grow by 1,000,000 people

Source: PlanNYC. Coastal Protection, A Stronger, More Resilient New York, p.45

2050: 72 square miles of New York City is in a 100 year floodplain

1983: 33 square miles of New York City Is in a 100 year floodplain

New York CityFloodplains in the Future

New York City1% Floodplains in the Future2020s


Planning Resilience in New York CityCommissioners’ Plan of 1811

one percent flood levels in new york city: land use, land value, and demographic implications

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