one belt , one road and copper consumption€™s-one-belt...building the silk road economic belt...
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LEGAL STATEMENT
The purpose of the information in this presentation is to guide ICA programs and provide members with information to make independent business decisions.
1
ANTITRUST GUIDELINES
2
Antitrust Guidelines for Copper Industry
Trade Association Meetings
The following guidelines with respect to compliance with antitrust laws of the United States, Japan and European Community1
are intended to govern the conduct of participants in copper industry trade association meetings, both at the meeting itself and
in informal discussions before or after the formal meeting.
Price: Competitors should not discuss future prices (including terms of sale) of their products. There is no blanket prohibition
against the mention of or reference to current or past prices but limits must be observed. Such references or mentions should
occur only when necessary in connection with the development of association programs. For example, reference to a particular
price level in comparing the cost of a copper product to a competing product is permitted. Whenever possible, such references
should be discussed in advance with legal counsel.
Competitive Information: Competitors should not discuss the market share of a particular copper producer or copper
fabricator’s products. Furthermore, nothing should be said at a meeting which could be interpreted as suggesting prearranged
market shares for such products or producer production levels. The overall market share of copper products may be discussed
with regard to competition with non-copper products and general market acceptance.
New Products: Competitors should not encourage or discourage the introduction of a new product by another competitor or
reveal a particular copper company’s plans to change the production rate of an existing product or to introduce a new product.
No company should disclose to another company whether it is in a position to make or market a new product. New products
may be discussed in a technical manner or from the standpoints of competition with non-copper products and general market
acceptance. In addition, proposed methods for and results of field and laboratory testing can be considered.
The Role of Legal Counsel: Legal counsel attends association meetings to advise association staff and other meeting
attendees regarding the antitrust laws and to see that none of the matters discussed or materials distributed raise even the
appearance of antitrust improprieties. During the course of a meeting, if counsel believes that the discussion is turning to a
sensitive or inappropriate subject, counsel will express that belief and request that the attendees return the discussion to a less
sensitive area.
A paper entitled ‘Copper Industry Trade Associations and Antritrust Laws’ is available upon request.
10/92, 5/93, 10/10
1. Other foreign competition laws apply to International Copper Association, Ltd. (ICA)’s activities worldwide.
October 5th 2018, London Shanghai MarchWIN Consulting Co., Ltd.
Impact of China’s Belt and Road Initiative
Background
September 7th, 2013 - The initiative of building the Silk Road Economic Belt was raised for the first time.
• On Sep. 7th, 2013, President Xi Jinping made a speech titled "Promote People-to-People Friendship and Create a Better Future" at Kazakhstan's Nazarbayev University.
October 3rd, 2013 - The initiative of building the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road was raised for the first time.
• On Oct. 3rd, 2013, President Xi Jinping made a speech titled "Constructing Jointly the China - ASEAN Community of Common Destiny" at Indonesia's Parliament.
# "BRI" refers to the Belt and Road Initiative, the Initiative of building the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road.
4
Geographical Reach
Source: Mercator Institute for China Studies 5
64 Countries
• China is open to the countries that are willing to join.
6
Population and GDP
The 64's population accounts for
43.5% of the world's people in 2016.
64's GDP accounts for
16.1% of world GDP in 2016.
Source: World Bank
Source: World Bank
30,801 31,104 33,665
39,453
47,601
56,658
66,983
83,136
98,092
88,219
105,170
124,043 129,031
133,578 133,798
120,140 121,752
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
10
0 M
ILL
ION
US
$
64 GDP
2,618 2,656
2,693 2,731
2,770 2,808
2,846 2,885
2,923 2,962
3,001 3,041
3,080 3,119
3,158 3,196
3,234
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
3,200
3,400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
MIL
LIO
N
64 Population
7
Economic Potential
Source: China State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd, MarchWIN
Source: CEEC (China Energy Engineering Co., Ltd), China State Grid Energy
Research Institute Co., Ltd, CEC (China Electricity Council ), IEA, BP, UN
Forecast on 64 GDP Growth Forecast on Electricity Consumption
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
%
8
Year Region
Electricity Consumption
per capita per year
(kWh/a)
BRI 64 Countries 1,600
China 4,082
OECD 7,945
World 3,027
2020 E 2,024
2030 E 4,166
2015
BRI 64 Countries
Select Impact
Energy and Power
Power generation & power grid
Oil pipeline, gas pipeline
Petroleum processing
Transport
Highway
High-speed rail, low speed rail and urban rail
Port
Telecommunication
Driven investment is mainly focusing on infrastructure development
9 Note: The study covers power and transport in copper demand only, due to data availability.
Belt Road Initiative
Direct Impact
Indirect Impact
Increase in
Copper
Demand
Material Demand Methodology
Infrastructure development by
imported equipment from China
Power (generation + grid)
Transport (railway + highway)
10
Power Infrastructure
Source: ICA, MarchWIN
Source: MarchWIN
Power infrastructure
projects
China companies
involved
Power contracting projects include thermal, hydro and renewable power generation plus power grid.
Copper intensive power equipment and products include power cables, transformers and switchgears.
11
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1,0
00
ton
nes
Estimated copper demand
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
US
$ b
illio
n
China companies power contracting projectsinvestment in BR 64
Transport Infrastructure
Source: ICA, MarchWIN
Source: MarchWIN
Transport infrastructure
projects
China companies
involved
Railway and highway system constructions are key focused areas.
12
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1,0
00
ton
nes
Estimated copper demand
Highway
Urban rail
High-speed rail
Low speed rail
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
kilo
mete
rs
China companies transport contracting projects completed kilometers in BR 64
Low speed rail
High-speed rail
Urban rail
Highway
Challenges
13
Forecast – Direct Impact
2013 to 2017
BRI - 1st 5 years
1.25 million tonnes
0.25 m tonnes/a
2018 to 2022
BRI - 2nd 5 years
1.58 million tonnes
0.32 m tonnes/a
2023 to 2027
BRI - 3rd 5 years
2.10 million tonnes
0.42 m tonnes/a
Source: MarchWIN
14
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 E 2019 E 2020 E 2021 E 2022 E 2023 E 2024 E 2025 E 2026 E 2027 E
1,0
00
ton
nes
Power infrastructure Transport infrastructure (railway and highway)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 E 2019 E 2020 E 2021 E 2022 E 2023 E 2024 E 2025 E 2026 E 2027 E
1,0
00
ton
nes
Building construction Other appliances Aircon and refrigeration
Forecast – Indirect Impact
2013 to 2017
BRI - 1st 5 years 2018 to 2022
BRI - 2nd 5 years
0.52 million tonnes
0.10 m tonnes/a
2023 to 2027
BRI - 3rd 5 years
0.72 million tonnes
0.14 m tonnes/a
5 years lag of BRI's indirect impact (hypothesis)
Source: IWCC/ICA, MarchWIN 15
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 E 2019 E 2020 E 2021 E 2022 E 2023 E 2024 E 2025 E 2026 E 2027 E
1,0
00
ton
nes
BR 64's copper usage without BRI BRI direct impact on copper usage BRI indirect impact on copper usage
Forecast
6.5 m tonnes
5.9 m tonnes
5.3 m tonnes
Source: IWCC/ICA, MarchWIN 16