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On the Possibility of a On the Possibility of a Green Revolution in Green Revolution in SubSub--Saharan AfricaSaharan Africa

KeijiroKeijiro OtsukaOtsukaFoundation for Advanced Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Studies on International Development (FASID)Development (FASID)

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In the 1950s and the early 1960s in Asia, In the 1950s and the early 1960s in Asia, population grew rapidly, grain yield was population grew rapidly, grain yield was stagnant, and uncultivated land was stagnant, and uncultivated land was being exhausted. Therefore, there was being exhausted. Therefore, there was serious fear of famine in Asia. serious fear of famine in Asia.

•• Contemporary SubContemporary Sub--Saharan Africa (SSA) is Saharan Africa (SSA) is so similar to tropical Asia several decades so similar to tropical Asia several decades ago.ago.

•• A main difference is that we now have A main difference is that we now have accumulated knowledge and technology in accumulated knowledge and technology in Asia which is potentially useful for SSA.Asia which is potentially useful for SSA.

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Figure 1. Changes in Grain Yield (ton per ha) in Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia

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Sub-Saharan Africa South & Southeast Asia

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ContentsContents1.1. What is the essence of the Asian Green What is the essence of the Asian Green

Revolution?Revolution?2.2. Why has it been so difficult to realize a Why has it been so difficult to realize a

GR in SSA?GR in SSA?3.3. Is it possible to realize a GR in SSA? Is Is it possible to realize a GR in SSA? Is

there any encouraging evidence?there any encouraging evidence?4.4. What should be strategy to realize a What should be strategy to realize a

Green Revolution in SSA?Green Revolution in SSA?

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How can we increase crop yield per ha?How can we increase crop yield per ha?1) Shift production function upward (develop 1) Shift production function upward (develop fertilizerfertilizer--responsive varieties, capable of responsive varieties, capable of converting nutrients to grains efficiently)converting nutrients to grains efficiently)2)2) Apply more inputs, particularly fertilizerApply more inputs, particularly fertilizer

Essence of the Green Revolution in Asia: Essence of the Green Revolution in Asia: Development and diffusion of a series of Development and diffusion of a series of fertilizerfertilizer--responsive, highresponsive, high--yielding modern yielding modern varieties (varieties (MVsMVs).).

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Comparison of IR8, the original shorter modern rice variety, with Peta, a traditional tall variety and one IR8’s

parents (1st two photos); lodging (bottom photo)

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Figure 2. Yield Curves of Traditional Varieties (TVs) and Modern Varieties (MVs)

Yield/HaImproved MVs& irrigation

Fertilizer/Ha

TVs

Early MVs

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Production

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Nominal price

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Source: Production: FAOSTAT Electronic Database, FAO.20Apr2006 udpate.Rice Price: Relate to Thai rice 5%-broken deflated by G-5 MUV Index deflator (adjusted based on 1 March 2007 data upSource: www.,WorldBank.org

Figure 3. Trends in world rice production and real rice price,1961-2006

Figure 3. Trends in world rice production and real rice price,1961-2006

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Summary of the Asian Green Revolution (GR)

• Continuous development and diffusion of fertilizer-responsive and pest- and disease-resistant MVs made GR possible.

• MVs are particularly high-yielding in favorable areas, such as irrigated areas and shallow rainfed areas.

• There is, however, a strong sign that the GR is ending.• MV adoption rate now is 70-75% in Asia, implying that

nearly 25% of areas has been bypassed by the GR.• Such unfavorable areas are primarily drought-prone

areas, where people are particularly poor.

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Lessons of Asian Green Revolution for Sub-Saharan Africa

1. Need fertilizer-responsive and drought-tolerant varietiesfor SSA where rainfall is low and unpredictable.

2. Need fertilizer, where chemical fertilizer is often prohibitively expensive.

3. The use of cow manure may be recommended.4. For manure production, stall-feeding and cultivation of

feed crops are essential, as the Agricultural Revolution in 18th century England clearly attested.

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Case 1: Organic Maize and Banana Case 1: Organic Maize and Banana Green Revolution in East AfricaGreen Revolution in East Africa

StallStall--feeding of highly productive feeding of highly productive dairy dairy cows,cows, which are crosswhich are cross--breeds between breeds between European cows and local cowsEuropean cows and local cowsUse of manure and compost, as well as Use of manure and compost, as well as chemical fertilizerchemical fertilizerUse of highUse of high--yielding hybrid maize varieties yielding hybrid maize varieties and locally improved banana varietiesand locally improved banana varieties

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Bananas (Plantains) and Improved Cows in Uganda

Fig. 4 Maize Yield in Kenya and Uganda

Uganda Kenya

Kgs/Ha

Fig. 5 Chemical Fertilizer UseAdoption rate (%)

Uganda Kenya

Applied Quantity (Kgs/Ha) among the Adopted

Fig. 6 Organic Fertilizer UseAdoption rate (%)

Uganda Kenya

Applied Quantity (Kgs/Ha) among the Adopted

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0-0.5 0.5-1.5 15.-

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Fig. 7 Organic Fertilizer Application and Banana Yield in Uganda

tons/ha

tons/ha

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Summary of Major Findings about Summary of Major Findings about OGRsOGRs

1.1. StallStall--fed dairy cows produce a lot of manure. fed dairy cows produce a lot of manure. 2.2. Maize yield is nearly 3 tons per ha, if both Maize yield is nearly 3 tons per ha, if both

organic and chemical fertilizers are applied organic and chemical fertilizers are applied and improved varieties are adopted and improved varieties are adopted simultaneously. simultaneously.

3.3. Banana yield increases significantly with an Banana yield increases significantly with an increase in manure application.increase in manure application.

4.4. The maize and banana The maize and banana OGRsOGRs are taking are taking place in highlands of Kenya and Uganda place in highlands of Kenya and Uganda without without strong government support.strong government support.

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Case 2: NERICA in UgandaCase 2: NERICA in Uganda

NERICA is NERICA is ““New Rice for Africa,New Rice for Africa,”” highhigh--yielding and shortyielding and short--maturing upland rice maturing upland rice varieties developed by WARDA.varieties developed by WARDA.Like the case of Asian Green Revolution, Like the case of Asian Green Revolution, policypolicy--makers are excited about shining makers are excited about shining prospects of NERICA in Uganda.prospects of NERICA in Uganda.FASID conducted the first empirical study on FASID conducted the first empirical study on NERICA.NERICA.

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NERICA in Uganda (5 tons/ha?)

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Yield of NERICA in Uganda by previous crop and region (ton/ha)

1.52.72.1Average

2.53.33.1Tobacco

2.13.02.6Leguminous crops

1.52.41.8Rice/maize

New rice region

Traditional rice region

AveragePrevious crops

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How Revolutionary is NERICA?How Revolutionary is NERICA?The average NERICA yield of 2.1 tons/ha is twice The average NERICA yield of 2.1 tons/ha is twice as high as the average rice yield in SSA. (In as high as the average rice yield in SSA. (In Japan it took 100 years to increase upland rice Japan it took 100 years to increase upland rice yield from 1 ton/ha to 2 tons/ha.)yield from 1 ton/ha to 2 tons/ha.)Yield of 3.3 tons/ha on fields planted previously to Yield of 3.3 tons/ha on fields planted previously to fertilizerfertilizer--using tobacco in traditional rice growing using tobacco in traditional rice growing areas is truly revolutionary, suggesting that areas is truly revolutionary, suggesting that NERICA is also fertilizerNERICA is also fertilizer--responsive highresponsive high--yielding yielding varieties.varieties.In order to sustain the NERICA Revolution, the In order to sustain the NERICA Revolution, the application of manure and/or chemical fertilizer is application of manure and/or chemical fertilizer is essential.essential.

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Prospect of Green Revolution in SSA1. It is no longer a dream to realize a Green

Revolution in SSA, as OGRs and NERICA Revolution indicate.

2. In order to realize a GR, we need to invest more in research and development of drought-tolerant and yield-enhancing technologies.

3. In order to sustain a GR, we need to develop effective soil management practices based on crop-livestock interactions or the use of chemical fertilizer.

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But what about extension systems, farmers’ health and education,

fertilizer market, credit, and irrigation?

1. We have limited resources. Thus, the key question is where to invest limited fund.

2. Strengthening extension systems before developing new profitable technologies?

3. Fertilizer subsidy, cheap credit, and irrigation investments before developing fertilizer-responsive MVs for SSA?

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What is really needed?

1. What really matters is “excitement” about new technological possibilities.

2. Excitement about new technology will stimulate irrigation investments, initiation of credit programs, and strengthening extension systems, because the excitement is translated into high expected returns.

3. Politicians and farmer are excited about NERICA in Uganda. IRRI, Rockefeller & Gates Foundations, and KO are extremely excited about high potential of lowland rice production in Mozambique.

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Thank you very much for your attention