Charles University in PragueFaculty of Mathematics and Physics

Dept. of Meteorology and Environment ProtectionV Holešovičkách 2, Prague 8,

Czech Republic

On the modelling and On the modelling and diagnostics of sdiagnostics of solar activity olar activity effecteffectss i in n the atmospherethe atmosphere

Project SOLICEProject SOLICE

Tomáš HalenkaTomáš Halenka*)*)

E-mail: tomas.halenka@mff.cuni.cz

*) regular associate of the Abdus Salam ICTP

Solar activity forcingSolar activity forcing

amplitude of total solar amplitude of total solar irradiance variance causes irradiance variance causes forcing about forcing about 0.0.11 Wm Wm-2-2 during during 11-years solar cycle – 11-years solar cycle – comparable to trend in GHG comparable to trend in GHG forcing, but strongly latitudinally forcing, but strongly latitudinally dependentdependent

UV radiation (200-300nm) UV radiation (200-300nm) changes about 9%changes about 9%

Lyman-Lyman- (121.6nm) by a factor (121.6nm) by a factor of 2of 2

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Project EC Project EC SOLICE SOLICE (Solar Influences on Climate and the (Solar Influences on Climate and the EEnvironment)nvironment)

funded by the European Community 5funded by the European Community 5thth FPFP with objectives: with objectives: tto extract the stratospheric solar signal in datasets of ozone, temperature, o extract the stratospheric solar signal in datasets of ozone, temperature,

geopotential height, vorticity and circulationgeopotential height, vorticity and circulation tto assess the impacts of solar variability in the troposphereo assess the impacts of solar variability in the troposphere tto investigate the response of stratospheric composition and climate to o investigate the response of stratospheric composition and climate to

variations in solar ultra-violet radiation using general circulation models variations in solar ultra-violet radiation using general circulation models (GCMs), coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs), chemical transport (GCMs), coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs), chemical transport models (CTMs) and mechanistic modelsmodels (CTMs) and mechanistic models

tto develop a more complete understanding of the mechanisms by which o develop a more complete understanding of the mechanisms by which solar variability influences the natural variability of the stratosphere and solar variability influences the natural variability of the stratosphere and tropospheretroposphere

Project EC Project EC SOLICE SOLICE (Solar Influences on Climate and the (Solar Influences on Climate and the EEnvironment)nvironment)

initiated in April 2000initiated in April 2000 completedcompleted in December 2003 in December 2003 ffinal report in March inal report in March 20042004 involving eight Europeaninvolving eight European institutions and two American collaboratorsinstitutions and two American collaborators full results and further project details are available at full results and further project details are available at

http://www.imperial.ac.uk/research/spat/research/SOLICE/index.htmhttp://www.imperial.ac.uk/research/spat/research/SOLICE/index.htm..

This presentation of selection of results based on final report and article This presentation of selection of results based on final report and article prepared for SPARCNews by coordinator of the project J. D. Haigh, prepared for SPARCNews by coordinator of the project J. D. Haigh, Imperial College, London from contributions of SOLICE PartnersImperial College, London from contributions of SOLICE Partners

SOLICE SOLICE PartnersPartnersJ.D. HaighJ.D. Haigh11, J. Austin, J. Austin2,32,3, N. Butchart, N. Butchart22, M.-L. Chanin, M.-L. Chanin44, S. Crooks, S. Crooks55, L.J, L.J. G. Grayray6,76,7, T. Halenka, T. Halenka88, J. Hampson, J. Hampson44, L.L. Hood, L.L. Hood99, I.S.A. , I.S.A.

IsaksenIsaksen1010, P. Keckhut, P. Keckhut44, K. Labitzke, K. Labitzke1111, U. Langematz, U. Langematz1111, K. Matthes, K. Matthes1111, M. Palmer, M. Palmer5,65,6, B., B. RognerudRognerud1010, K. Tourpali, K. Tourpali1212, C. , C. ZerefosZerefos12,1312,13

1.1. Imperial College London, UKImperial College London, UK

2.2. The Met. Office, Exeter, UKThe Met. Office, Exeter, UK

3.3. now at NOAA GFDL, Princeton, USAnow at NOAA GFDL, Princeton, USA

4.4. Service d’Aeronomie du CNRS, FranceService d’Aeronomie du CNRS, France

5.5. University of Oxford, UK University of Oxford, UK

6.6. Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Didcot, UKRutherford Appleton Laboratory, Didcot, UK

7.7. now at University of Reading, UKnow at University of Reading, UK

8.8. Charles University, Prague, Czech RepublicCharles University, Prague, Czech Republic

9.9. University of Arizona, Tucson, USAUniversity of Arizona, Tucson, USA

10.10. University of Oslo, NorwayUniversity of Oslo, Norway

11.11. Free University of Berlin, GermanyFree University of Berlin, Germany

12.12. Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, GreeceAristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece

13.13. now at University of Athens, Greecenow at University of Athens, Greece

Scientific achievements and main Scientific achievements and main deliverables:deliverables:

Answers to the following questions:Answers to the following questions:1.1. What are the observed solar responses in middle atmosphere temperature and wind? What are the observed solar responses in middle atmosphere temperature and wind? 2.2. What is the observed interaction of the solar cycle and QBO in the lower stratosphere?What is the observed interaction of the solar cycle and QBO in the lower stratosphere?3.3. What are the observed solar responses in circulation patterns?What are the observed solar responses in circulation patterns?4.4. What is the response to solar variability in the troposphere?What is the response to solar variability in the troposphere?5.5. What are the observed solar responses in ozone?What are the observed solar responses in ozone?6.6. How successfully do GCM simulations with controlled irradiance and ozone variations How successfully do GCM simulations with controlled irradiance and ozone variations

reproduce observed solar signal?reproduce observed solar signal?7.7. Does inclusion of an interactive ocean improve simulations?Does inclusion of an interactive ocean improve simulations?8.8. Does a representation of the QBO improve model simulations of the solar influence?Does a representation of the QBO improve model simulations of the solar influence?9.9. How well do chemistry-climate models simulate solar cycle impact on stratospheric How well do chemistry-climate models simulate solar cycle impact on stratospheric

ozone and temperature?ozone and temperature?10.10. How well do chemistry-climate models simulate the 27-day solar cycle impact on How well do chemistry-climate models simulate the 27-day solar cycle impact on

stratospheric ozone and temperature?stratospheric ozone and temperature?11.11. What was the impact of the Maunder Minimum in solar activity on climate?What was the impact of the Maunder Minimum in solar activity on climate?12.12. What is a possible mechanism for the solar signal to reach the lower stratosphere?What is a possible mechanism for the solar signal to reach the lower stratosphere?13.13. How do solar activity levels affect the solar radiative forcing of climate?How do solar activity levels affect the solar radiative forcing of climate?14.14. To what extent does solar variability impact surface UV?To what extent does solar variability impact surface UV?15.15. What is the possible mechanism for the stratospheric low latitude solar signal to reach What is the possible mechanism for the stratospheric low latitude solar signal to reach

the troposphere?the troposphere?

What are the observed solar responses in What are the observed solar responses in middle atmosphere temperature and wind?middle atmosphere temperature and wind?

Examples of vertical profiles of temperature responses from the rocketsonde data (1969-early 1990) in the tropics, NH subtropics and NH mid-latitude with 1 and 2 sigma error bar (Keckhut et al. 2003).

Annual-mean zonal temperature response to solar activity based on SSU/MSU data from 1979 up to 1998. Annual response is presented as a function of latitude bands and pressure heights (to 100hPa up to 0.4 hPa corresponding to the tropopause level up to 55 km). The gray shaded regions indicate statistically significant signal.

Results from the zonal wind and temperature regression using the ERA-40 analysis showing the average annual response in the stratosphere and mesosphere (Crooks and Gray, 2004). Shading denotes the 95% and 99% confidence levels.

What is the observed interaction of the What is the observed interaction of the solar cycle and QBO in the lower solar cycle and QBO in the lower

stratosphere? stratosphere?

Left: Correlations between the 10.7cm solar flux and the detrended 30-hPa temperatures in July; shaded for emphasis where correlations are above 0.5. Right: The respective temperature differences (K) between solar maxima and minima; shaded where the differences are above 1 K. Upper panels: all years; middle panels: only years in the east phase of the QBO; lower panels: only years in the west phase of the QBO. (NCEP/NCAR re-analyses, 1968-2002) (Labitzke, 2003)

Left: Vertical meridional sections of the correlations between the 10.7cm solar flux and the de-trended zonal mean temperatures in July; shaded for emphasis where correlations are above 0.5. Right: The respective temperature differences (K) between solar maxima and minima, shaded where the correlations are above 0.5. Upper panels: all years; middle panels: only years in the east phase of the QBO; lower panels: only years in the west phase of the QBO. (NCEP/NCAR re-analyses, 1968-2002) (Labitzke 2003)

What is the observed interaction of the What is the observed interaction of the solar cycle and QBO in the lower solar cycle and QBO in the lower

stratosphere? stratosphere?

Scatter diagrams (de-trended 30-hPa temperatures (C) against the 10.7cm solar flux) at two grid points. Upper panels: 25N/90W; lower panels:20S/60W. Left: years in the east phase of the QBO (n=16); right: years in the west phase (n=19). The numbers indicate the respective years; r=correlation coefficient, ΔT= temperature difference (K) between solar maxima and minima. Period: 1968-2002. (Labitzke 2003)

Correlations between the 10.7cm solar flux and the detrended 30-hPa geopotential heights in July; shaded for emphasis where correlations are above 0.5. Right: The respective geopotential heights differences (m) between solar maxima and minima; shaded where the differences are above 60 gpm. Upper panels: all years; middle panels: only years in the east phase of the QBO; lower panels: only years in the west phase of the QBO. (NCEP/NCAR re-analyses, 1968-2002) (Labitzke, 2003)

What are the observed solar responses in What are the observed solar responses in circulation patterns? circulation patterns?

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Ratio from composites for solar max and min [2*(max-min)/(max+min)], for lower wavenumbers of potential vorticity expansion

What are the observed solar What are the observed solar responses in circulation patterns? responses in circulation patterns?

4th mode of PCA analysis of geopotential field in 50 hPa level (left panel) together with the cross correlation analysis of running average of its component with solar flux (right panel).

F10.7 with 4th mode PCA 50 hPa

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What is the response to solar variability in What is the response to solar variability in the troposphere? the troposphere?

Amplitudes of the components of variability in zonal mean temperature due to: (a) trend (b) solar, (c) QBO, (d) ENSO, (e) volcanoes, (f) NAO. The units are K/decade for the trend, otherwise maximum variation (K) over the data period. Shaded areas are not statistically significant at the 95% level using a Student’s t test.

What is the response to solar What is the response to solar variability in the troposphere? variability in the troposphere?

Top left: annual mean zonal mean zonal wind. Other panels: amplitudes of the components of variability in zonal mean zonal wind due to Below mean panel downwards : trend, ENSO, NAO. Top right downwards: solar, volcanoes. The units are ms-1/decade for the trend, otherwise maximum variation (ms-1) over the data period.

What are the observed solar responses in What are the observed solar responses in ozone?ozone?

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How successfully do GCM simulations with How successfully do GCM simulations with controlled irradiance and ozone variations controlled irradiance and ozone variations

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Mean zonal mean wind differences between the solar maximum and solar minimum experiments in metres per second for the NH (20°-80°N) winter (November to February, top to bottom), contour interval: 2 m/s. From left to right: observations (NMC data from 1980-1997, update of Kodera (1995)), GISS model, MRI-G experiment, MRI-I experiment, FUB model, and IC model. (Figure 5 from Matthes et al. (2003)).

Does a representation of the QBO improve Does a representation of the QBO improve model simulations of the solar influence? model simulations of the solar influence?

Left: 10-hPa (32~km) long-term daily mean NP temperature for solar min (top) and max (bottom) experiments. QBOw: black line with shaded 2sigma standard deviation, QBOe: white line with unfilled 2sigma standard deviation. Vertical line in January to separate early and late winter. Figure 10 from Matthes et al. (2004). Right: same as left but for the UM model.

Left: FUB-CMAM results, long-term mean wind differences between solar maxima and minima for the QBO east (left) and the QBOw experiment (right) for the NH from October to May and the surface to 80 km (1000 to 0.01 hPa), contour intervals: 2 m/s. Light (heavy) shading indicates the 95% (99%) significance level (Student t-test). Similar to figure 12a,b from Matthes et al. (2004); Right: same as left, but for the UM model from October until March.

How well do chemistry-climate models How well do chemistry-climate models simulate solar cycle impact on simulate solar cycle impact on

stratospheric ozone and temperature?stratospheric ozone and temperature?

Impact of the 11-year solar cycle on annually averaged ozone in UMETRAC as a function of pressure and latitude. The shading in (a) denotes the regions of statistically significant change using a two-tailed t-test for the significance levels of 80%, 95% and 99%.

Impact of the 11-year solar cycle on annually averaged temperature in UMETRAC as a function of pressure and latitude. The shading in (a) denotes the regions of statistically significant change using a two-tailed t-test for the significance levels of 80%, 95% and 99%.

How do solar activity levels affect the solar How do solar activity levels affect the solar radiative forcing of climate?radiative forcing of climate?

Author solar change

direct RF (tpse)

O3 O3

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Haigh 1994

11-year amp

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Hansen et al 1997

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Myhre et al 1998

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ConclusionsConclusions

The multiple regression analysis, which was developed within this contract to The multiple regression analysis, which was developed within this contract to analyse the different dataset, has helped defining the conditions that a dataset analyse the different dataset, has helped defining the conditions that a dataset should fulfil to be used for such detection: length of the data series, continuity, should fulfil to be used for such detection: length of the data series, continuity, noise-level. This analysis has shown to be a powerful tool to identify the noise-level. This analysis has shown to be a powerful tool to identify the contribution of the different forcings (anthropogenic and natural). (question 1).contribution of the different forcings (anthropogenic and natural). (question 1).

Our knowledge of the signature of solar response in both the troposphere and Our knowledge of the signature of solar response in both the troposphere and the stratosphere has been improved by using longer, improved datasets and the stratosphere has been improved by using longer, improved datasets and improved techniques (questions 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). improved techniques (questions 1, 2, 3, 4, 5).

The comparison of the solar signature observed from the whole datasets and The comparison of the solar signature observed from the whole datasets and their coherence with the output of the different models help supporting the their coherence with the output of the different models help supporting the hypothesis of a forcing mechanism involving the absorption of solar UV Flux by hypothesis of a forcing mechanism involving the absorption of solar UV Flux by stratospheric ozone.stratospheric ozone.

From this study, it appears clearly that only 3D models can represent the From this study, it appears clearly that only 3D models can represent the observations, because of the need to reproduce the 3D dynamical forcing observations, because of the need to reproduce the 3D dynamical forcing (questions 6, 9, 10, 11). (questions 6, 9, 10, 11).

Progress has been made in identifying the possible mechanisms that enable Progress has been made in identifying the possible mechanisms that enable the solar response to extend deep into the lower stratosphere and troposphere the solar response to extend deep into the lower stratosphere and troposphere (questions 12, 15).(questions 12, 15).

The importance of including an interactive ocean and the quasi biennial The importance of including an interactive ocean and the quasi biennial oscillation in model simulations has been investigated (questions 7, 8)oscillation in model simulations has been investigated (questions 7, 8)

The impact of changes in solar forcing have been investigated (questions 13, The impact of changes in solar forcing have been investigated (questions 13, 14).14).

ConclusionsConclusions

The purpose of the project on a longer term would The purpose of the project on a longer term would be to define what representation of the stratosphere, be to define what representation of the stratosphere, and mostly of the UV absorption by stratospheric and mostly of the UV absorption by stratospheric ozone, is to be used in full climate GCMs to ozone, is to be used in full climate GCMs to correctly reproduce the solar climate forcing, without correctly reproduce the solar climate forcing, without being prohibitive in term of added complexity.being prohibitive in term of added complexity.