oklahoma’s population … the key dimension of change

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Oklahoma’s population … Oklahoma’s population … the key dimension of changethe key dimension of change

Community Service Council of Greater TulsaCommunity Service Council of Greater Tulsa

MHSC 2009 Partner Presentation, Summer 2009MHSC 2009 Partner Presentation, Summer 2009

File:DaP:/ My DocumentsPowerPoint/MHSC/Immigration/MHSC 2009 Partner Presentation OK Pop Hispanic.pptFile:DaP:/ My DocumentsPowerPoint/MHSC/Immigration/MHSC 2009 Partner Presentation OK Pop Hispanic.ppt

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The Metropolitan Human Services Commission in Tulsa, partnership includes:The Metropolitan Human Services Commission in Tulsa, partnership includes:

• City of TulsaCity of Tulsa• Oklahoma Department of Human ServicesOklahoma Department of Human Services

• Tulsa Area United WayTulsa Area United Way

• Tulsa Community CollegeTulsa Community College

• Tulsa CountyTulsa County

• Tulsa Health DepartmentTulsa Health Department

• Tulsa Public SchoolsTulsa Public Schools• Union Public SchoolsUnion Public Schools

Ad Hoc members include: Metropolitan Tulsa Chamber and Tulsa Metropolitan Ministry.Ad Hoc members include: Metropolitan Tulsa Chamber and Tulsa Metropolitan Ministry.

MissionMissionTo serve as a leadership catalyst for coordination of funding, planning and policy decisions affecting human To serve as a leadership catalyst for coordination of funding, planning and policy decisions affecting human capital development in Tulsa County, and provide guidance to its partners to best enhance that development.capital development in Tulsa County, and provide guidance to its partners to best enhance that development.

Scope of ConcernScope of ConcernAdvancing the community’s investment in human capital includes the scope of efforts addressing the Advancing the community’s investment in human capital includes the scope of efforts addressing the education, safety, health, housing, family support, emergency financial, transportation and employment education, safety, health, housing, family support, emergency financial, transportation and employment preparation needs of families and individuals. These efforts increasingly seek to prevent needs through preparation needs of families and individuals. These efforts increasingly seek to prevent needs through promoting greater self-sufficiency among Tulsa’s people while still intervening to respond to crises and other promoting greater self-sufficiency among Tulsa’s people while still intervening to respond to crises and other immediate concerns.immediate concerns.

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Oklahoma’s Population … Oklahoma’s Population …

no signs of significant no signs of significant

growth except related to growth except related to

people of Hispanic Originpeople of Hispanic Origin


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Definitions…Definitions…

Demographic growthDemographic growth: Increase in the size of : Increase in the size of population by there being more births than death, population by there being more births than death, and more migrants entering than leaving and more migrants entering than leaving

Natural balanceNatural balance:: Fundamental growth when there are Fundamental growth when there are more births than deathsmore births than deaths

Replacement valueReplacement value: Number of children per family : Number of children per family just sufficient to keep the total population constant just sufficient to keep the total population constant or 2.1 children per womanor 2.1 children per woman


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WorldwideWorldwidepopulation population growthgrowth

By 2050 there will be 9 By 2050 there will be 9 billion people on earthbillion people on earth

3 billion will have been 3 billion will have been added just in the last 46 added just in the last 46 yearsyears

Fastest growth is in Fastest growth is in underdeveloped underdeveloped countriescountries

Ethnic and religious Ethnic and religious diversity will be more diversity will be more important than raceimportant than race

U.S. population centers U.S. population centers will be coastalwill be coastal

Taking a closer look…


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What About What About

Oklahoma?Oklahoma?


Look BackLook Back

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Population Population declines in declines in

Oklahoma are Oklahoma are widespreadwidespread

1950-20001950-2000

34 counties lost 143,75634 counties lost 143,756

2000-20082000-2008

32 counties lost 32 counties lost 24,500 24,500


20082008

Counties with less than Counties with less than 25,000 people25,000 people

4040

• 10,000 to 15,00010,000 to 15,000

7 7

• under 10,000under 10,000

1717

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Oklahoma CountiesOklahoma CountiesLosses & Gains 1950-2008Losses & Gains 1950-2008

Counties that grew more than the state’s 63% growth between1950 and 2008

Prepared by the Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa for the Metropolitan Human Services Commission, Prepared by the Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa for the Metropolitan Human Services Commission, June, 2009June, 2009File:DaP:/ My DocumentsPowerPoint/MHSC/Immigration/MHSC 2009 Partner Presentation OK Pop Hispanic.ppt

XX

X

X

X

X: loss over 50.1% to 64.8% [7]Y: loss over 39.2% to 47.3% [8] I: loss 27.0%- to 34.1% [7]o: loss 12.0% to 17.1% [5]o: loss 1.1% to 8.7% [8]

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62 of Oklahoma’s 77 counties either lost population or grew at 62 of Oklahoma’s 77 counties either lost population or grew at a rate less than the state between 1950 and 2008 a rate less than the state between 1950 and 2008

35 counties lost population, only 5 counties had over 25,000 people in 2008.35 counties lost population, only 5 counties had over 25,000 people in 2008.

Community Service Council of Greater TulsaCommunity Service Council of Greater Tulsa Source: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

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Oklahoma’s Population ShiftsOklahoma’s Population Shifts

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

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Non-Metro County

OK

59

%

USTotal

OK Total

Metro Cos.- Cleveland- Rogers- Canadian- Wagoner

NE Oklahoma- Delaware - Cherokee

Metro Cos. - Tulsa- Oklahoma

Sequoyah Co. (NE)

Metro Cos.- McClain- Comanche

- Mayes (NE) & - Marshall (SCrtl)

Metro Cos. - Logan- Creek

Only 15 counties grew at or above the state’s growth of 59% Only 15 counties grew at or above the state’s growth of 59%

All but 6 counties were over 50,000 population in 2005All but 6 counties were over 50,000 population in 2005

Source: U.S. CENSUS BUREAUSource: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU Community Service Council of Greater TulsaCommunity Service Council of Greater Tulsa

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Oklahoma is Oklahoma is growinggrowingat a slower pace at a slower pace than the nationthan the nation


Average Annual Rate of Average Annual Rate of Growth 2000 and 2008:Growth 2000 and 2008:

U.S. U.S. 1.0% 1.0%

State of OklahomaState of Oklahoma 0.7%0.7%

Tulsa MSATulsa MSA 0.8% 0.8%

Oklahoma City MSAOklahoma City MSA 1.2%1.2%

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Any growth Any growth mainly occurred mainly occurred in Metro Areasin Metro Areas

2000-2008:2000-2008:

• Oklahoma’s population grew Oklahoma’s population grew 5.6%5.6%

• Non-urban areas grew Non-urban areas grew 1.8%1.8%

• OKC/Tulsa MSAs together OKC/Tulsa MSAs together grew grew 8.6%8.6%

• 87% 87% of Oklahoma’s growth of Oklahoma’s growth was in the Oklahoma City was in the Oklahoma City and Tulsa MSAsand Tulsa MSAs


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Hispanic Hispanic ImpactImpact


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Immigrant Immigrant Population Population Impact has Impact has

been been SignificantSignificant


2000-20082000-2008::

10 counties would 10 counties would

have lost population have lost population

except for Hispanic except for Hispanic

population increasespopulation increases

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Average Annual Rate of Average Annual Rate of

Growth 2000-2008:Growth 2000-2008:

Without the Hispanic Without the Hispanic

populationpopulation Oklahoma’s Oklahoma’s

rate of growth would be rate of growth would be

reduced fromreduced from

0.7%0.7% to to

0.3%0.3%

Oklahoma City MSAOklahoma City MSA 1.2%1.2% to to 0.8%0.8%

Tulsa MSATulsa MSA0.8% to 0.8% to

0.4%0.4%

Oklahoma is Oklahoma is essentially not essentially not

growing growing OklahomaOklahomaTotalTotal

Oklahoma Oklahoma City MSACity MSA

1.2%1.2%

0.7%0.7%0.8%0.8%

Tulsa MSATulsa MSA

1.5%1.5%

0.3%0.3%

0.8%0.8%

0.4%0.4%

United StatesUnited States1.0% to 0.5%1.0% to 0.5%

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Hispanic Population Hispanic Population Impacts Urban and Impacts Urban and

Rural Areas Rural Areas

2000-2008 Population:

• Oklahoma County grew 7.0%, average annual growth 0.8%

• Tulsa County grew Tulsa County grew 5.1%, average annual 5.1%, average annual growth of 0.6%growth of 0.6%

What percent of What percent of Oklahoma County’s and Oklahoma County’s and Tulsa County’s growth Tulsa County’s growth was comprised of was comprised of people with Hispanic people with Hispanic origin?origin?


Oklahoma Oklahoma CountyCounty

Tulsa Tulsa CountyCounty

87%87%

71%71%

98%98%

Non-urbanNon-urbanareasareas

What about non-urban What about non-urban areas?areas?

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Growth related Growth related to natural to natural balancebalance

Oklahoma’s natural Oklahoma’s natural growth rate has been growth rate has been variable but lowvariable but low

30 counties in Oklahoma 30 counties in Oklahoma had less than 200 births had less than 200 births per yearper year

Of these, 15 counties Of these, 15 counties had less than 100 births had less than 100 births per yearper year

YearDeath Rate

Birth Rate

Natural Growth

Rate2000 10.0 14.4 0.442001 9.9 14.4 0.452002 10.1 14.4 0.432003 10.1 14.5 0.442004 9.7 14.5 0.462005 10.2 14.6 0.44


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In Oklahoma County In Oklahoma County

and Tulsa County, as and Tulsa County, as

well as Oklahoma, the well as Oklahoma, the

natural population natural population

growth is strongly growth is strongly

impacted by fertility impacted by fertility

rates of Hispanic rates of Hispanic

womenwomen


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Growth related to Growth related to natural balancenatural balance

YearFertility Rates

Children per Women*

Fertility Rates

Children per Women*

2000 62.6 1.9 67.5 2.12001 63.8 2.0 68.3 2.12002 64.3 2.0 69.2 2.12003 64.7 2.0 69.2 2.12004 65.2 2.0 69.4 2.12005 65.5 2.0 69.7 2.22006 67.7 2.1 71 2.2

White Non-HispanicOklahoma Tulsa County

YearFertility Rates

Children per Women*

Fertility Rates

Children per Women*

2000 103.3 3.3 121.4 3.92001 110.8 3.5 131.1 4.22002 111.4 3.5 131.9 4.22003 115.9 3.7 140 4.52004 116.1 3.7 135 4.32005 116.2 3.7 139.8 4.52006 125.2 4.0 158.2 5.1

Oklahoma Tulsa CountyHispanic, Any Race

Overall, Oklahoma’s Overall, Oklahoma’s

fertility rates have fertility rates have

increased slightly, from increased slightly, from

62.6 to 67.762.6 to 67.7

While the fertility rates While the fertility rates

for Hispanics are almost for Hispanics are almost

double, and increased double, and increased

from 103.3 to 125.2from 103.3 to 125.2

The replacement rate is The replacement rate is

2.1 and has reached 4.0 2.1 and has reached 4.0

for women of Hispanic for women of Hispanic

OriginOrigin


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Oklahoma Oklahoma population population growth related to growth related to immigrationimmigration

2000-20082000-2008::

Non-HispanicNon-Hispanic grew grew 92,390 or 2.8%92,390 or 2.8%

0.3% annually0.3% annually

White non-HispanicWhite non-Hispanic grew by 4.6%, or grew by 4.6%, or about 0.6% per yearabout 0.6% per year


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Oklahoma Oklahoma population population growth related growth related to immigrationto immigrationThe most critical The most critical contributor to population contributor to population growth in small states is growth in small states is the increase in Hispanic the increase in Hispanic population, including population, including immigrants.immigrants.

Oklahoma’s Hispanic Oklahoma’s Hispanic population grew by over population grew by over 99,300 [2000-2008] or 99,300 [2000-2008] or 55%, an average annual 55%, an average annual growth of 5.7%growth of 5.7%

In two years [2006-2008] In two years [2006-2008] Hispanics alone grew 13% Hispanics alone grew 13% or by over 31,000 peopleor by over 31,000 people


2000-2008: Asians and Hawaiian/Pacific 2000-2008: Asians and Hawaiian/Pacific Islander Alone increased in the double Islander Alone increased in the double digits, 30% & 45% respectively, but the digits, 30% & 45% respectively, but the numbers were much smaller numbers were much smaller

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Complete this

Urban public Urban public school enrollmentschool enrollment

2000-2008 Changes2000-2008 Changes: :

Oklahoma Co. Oklahoma Co. 7.2% 7.2% Tulsa Co. Tulsa Co. 6.8%6.8%

Non-Hispanic WhiteNon-Hispanic White population population decreaseddecreased Oklahoma Co.Oklahoma Co. - - 8,120 8,120 Tulsa Co.Tulsa Co. - - 5,0305,030

Black, Native American, Black, Native American, Asian & Pacific Inlanders, Asian & Pacific Inlanders, and Hispanic children all and Hispanic children all increased.increased.

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Complete this

Elementary public Elementary public school enrollment school enrollment growth was primarily growth was primarily due to increases in due to increases in

Hispanic studentsHispanic students % Hispanic% Hispanic

State-wide State-wide 12%12%

Oklahoma CountyOklahoma County 23%23%

Tulsa CountyTulsa County 15%15%

OKC Public SchoolsOKC Public Schools 35%35%

Tulsa Public SchoolsTulsa Public Schools 23%23%

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Complete this

Public school Public school enrollment growth was enrollment growth was primarily due to primarily due to increases in Hispanic increases in Hispanic studentsstudents

Hispanic enrollment Hispanic enrollment increased: increased:

Oklahoma Co. Oklahoma Co. 123.8%123.8%

Tulsa Co. Tulsa Co. 135.6%135.6%

Combined, these two Combined, these two counties had an increase counties had an increase of over 21,000 Hispanic of over 21,000 Hispanic childrenchildren

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OklahomaOklahoma County Schools October 1 EnrollmentCounty Schools October 1 Enrollment

Tulsa County Schools October 1 EnrollmentTulsa County Schools October 1 Enrollment


20002000 20082008 # Change# Change % Change% Change

White NHWhite NH 61,36261,362 53,24353,243 -8,119-8,119 -13.2%-13.2%

BlackBlack 24,71624,716 27,03827,038 2,3222,322 9.4%9.4%

Native AmericanNative American 5,6395,639 7,6487,648 2,0092,009 35.6%35.6%

HispanicHispanic 10,31710,317 23,09123,091 12,77412,774 123.8%123.8%

20002000 20082008 # Change# Change % Change% Change

White NHWhite NH 65,84865,848 60,817 60,817 -5,031-5,031 -7.6%-7.6%

BlackBlack 17,16617,166 18,743 18,743 1,5771,577 9.2%9.2%

Native AmericanNative American 10,43910,439 14,804 14,804 4,3654,365 41.8%41.8%

HispanicHispanic 6,0886,088 14,343 14,343 8,2558,255 135.6%135.6%

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Tulsa County Public School EnrollmentTulsa County Public School Enrollment2000-20082000-2008

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1999/2000 2007/2008Tulsa Co White NonHispanic

Oklahoma Co. White Non-Hispanic

Oklahoma Co.

Tulsa Co. -7.6%

-13.2%

White Non-Hispanic Enrollment

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1999/2000 2007/2008Tulsa Co. Hispanic

Oklahoma Co. Hispanic

Hispanic Enrollment

+135.6%

+123.8%+123.6%

+135.6%

Hispanic Enrollment


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Look ForwardLook Forward


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Oklahoma’s Oklahoma’s PopulationPopulation

Age StructureAge Structure


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Age grouping is Age grouping is an important an important factor to factor to considerconsiderIn relationship to the In relationship to the national percentage national percentage changechange [2000-2008] [2000-2008] Oklahoma was:Oklahoma was:

AboveAbove - Children 0-9- Children 0-9

BelowBelow - youth 10-24 - youth 10-24

AboveAbove ages 25-34 ages 25-34

BelowBelow ages 35-74 ages 35-74

AboveAbove ages 75-69 ages 75-69

Same as US 70-79Same as US 70-79

AboveAbove nation age 80 nation age 80 and over and over

30

6.2%5.1%

18.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

% C

han

ge

2000

-200

7

4.7%

0.9%

+163,258

+8,262

+10,502

+23,513+131,483

Oklahoma’s total population has grown at just under 0.6% per yearOklahoma’s total population has grown at just under 0.6% per year

People 65 and over increased 5.1% between 2000 and 2007People 65 and over increased 5.1% between 2000 and 2007

Total 0-17 18-64 65 & Over 85 & Over


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10.2% 9.5%

-0.21%

59.9%

50.4%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%

75%

% C

han

ge

2007

-203

0

+363,456 +84,446

-4,665

+283,675

+33,357

Between 2007 and 2030, Oklahoma’s total population is projected to Between 2007 and 2030, Oklahoma’s total population is projected to grow at a slow pace of +10.2%grow at a slow pace of +10.2%

The population of people 65 and over is projected to increase 60%The population of people 65 and over is projected to increase 60%

The working age population is projected to declineThe working age population is projected to decline

Total 0-17 18-64 65 & Over 85 & Over Community Service Council of Greater TulsaCommunity Service Council of Greater Tulsa

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-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Per

cent

Cha

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TotalPop

4 9 14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84

Age in Years

US 2000-2030 % ChangeOK 2000-2030 % Change

Age Structure: Total Population Percent ChangeAge Structure: Total Population Percent Change

US Compared to Oklahoma by Single Year of Age 0-85+US Compared to Oklahoma by Single Year of Age 0-85+

The age group that is most productive The age group that is most productive (34-47) is projected to decline(34-47) is projected to decline


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What does the future hold?What does the future hold?US Population ProjectionsUS Population Projections: 2005-2050: 2005-2050

• 82% of the increase will be due to immigrants arriving from 2005 to 82% of the increase will be due to immigrants arriving from 2005 to 2050 and their US-born descendants. 2050 and their US-born descendants.

• Nearly one in five Americans (19%) will be an immigrant in 2050, Nearly one in five Americans (19%) will be an immigrant in 2050, compared with one in eight (12%) in 2005. compared with one in eight (12%) in 2005.

• By 2025, the immigrant, or foreign-born, share of the population will By 2025, the immigrant, or foreign-born, share of the population will surpass the peak during the last great wave of immigration a century surpass the peak during the last great wave of immigration a century ago. ago.

• The Latino population, already the nation’s largest minority group, The Latino population, already the nation’s largest minority group, will triple in size and will account for most of the nation’s population will triple in size and will account for most of the nation’s population growth from 2005 through 2050. growth from 2005 through 2050.

• Hispanics will make up 29% of the US population in 2050, compared Hispanics will make up 29% of the US population in 2050, compared with 14% in 2005. with 14% in 2005.


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FindingsFindings


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Findings:Findings:• Oklahoma’s growth will continue to be low compared to Oklahoma’s growth will continue to be low compared to

the nationthe nation

• There will continue to be population shiftsThere will continue to be population shifts• From rural to urbanFrom rural to urban• MigrationMigration

– From out-of-stateFrom out-of-state– To out-of-stateTo out-of-state

• Metropolitan areas will continue to grow close to the Metropolitan areas will continue to grow close to the national rate of growth, and out pace both Oklahoma national rate of growth, and out pace both Oklahoma and rural areasand rural areas

• Children and seniors continue to be the largest growth Children and seniors continue to be the largest growth populations populations

• Population in the working age group will continue to Population in the working age group will continue to decline over time, especially in rural areasdecline over time, especially in rural areas


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Findings:Findings:Replacement populationReplacement population

• Oklahoma will have a hard time just replacing Oklahoma will have a hard time just replacing its’ populationits’ population

• Oklahoma’s population is aging and there is Oklahoma’s population is aging and there is a minimum ratio of persons aged 18 to 65 to a minimum ratio of persons aged 18 to 65 to those that between 0 - 18 and aged 65 years those that between 0 - 18 and aged 65 years and older that is necessary to maintain a and older that is necessary to maintain a viable economy and necessary services.viable economy and necessary services.

– Additional analysis needs to be completed to Additional analysis needs to be completed to determine the necessary mix of age groupsdetermine the necessary mix of age groups..


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Findings:Findings:

Hispanic populationHispanic population

• Hispanic populations will continue to play an Hispanic populations will continue to play an important role in population growth in urban important role in population growth in urban and rural areas.and rural areas.

• Births to women of Hispanic Origin will Births to women of Hispanic Origin will continue to grow, as a share of total births as continue to grow, as a share of total births as well as in total numberwell as in total number

• Hispanic children will continue to increase Hispanic children will continue to increase their share in the public school populationtheir share in the public school population


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Reasons why immigration issues need to Reasons why immigration issues need to be addressedbe addressed

• WorkforceWorkforce• EducationEducation• TrainingTraining• Child CareChild Care• SafetySafety

– Domestic ViolenceDomestic Violence– Keeping crime lowKeeping crime low

• Health careHealth care– ImmunizationsImmunizations– Pre-natal and Post-natal carePre-natal and Post-natal care– Emergency CareEmergency Care– BirthingBirthing

• Support servicesSupport services


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AgendaAgenda

Provide public education on immigration and Oklahoma’s Provide public education on immigration and Oklahoma’s needs –needs –

• Offer brief presentations describing the reasons for Offer brief presentations describing the reasons for sustaining and developing the immigrant population:sustaining and developing the immigrant population:

– Satisfying current and future workforce needsSatisfying current and future workforce needs

– Addressing Oklahoma’s future growth and vitalityAddressing Oklahoma’s future growth and vitality

– Increasing state resources for funding essential servicesIncreasing state resources for funding essential services


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Prepared by the Community Service Council of Greater TulsaPrepared by the Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

We are available to provide a great amount of additional data and information on this We are available to provide a great amount of additional data and information on this topic and many others.topic and many others.

The Community Service Council'sThe Community Service Council's Census Information Center (CIC) Census Information Center (CIC) is provided in is provided in cooperation with the U.S. Census Bureau to make census data more accessible for cooperation with the U.S. Census Bureau to make census data more accessible for use in planning to meet the needs of people in Oklahoma. use in planning to meet the needs of people in Oklahoma.

Please visit our website for a variety of presentations and sets of data for your use in Please visit our website for a variety of presentations and sets of data for your use in planning and development of the State of Oklahoma.planning and development of the State of Oklahoma.

Go to Go to www.csctulsa.org.www.csctulsa.org. Click on “Data” Click on “Data”

The Council is supported in data and information efforts by the Metropolitan Human The Council is supported in data and information efforts by the Metropolitan Human Services Commission in TulsaServices Commission in Tulsa

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa (a United Way agency)Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa (a United Way agency)

16 East 1616 East 16thth Street, Suite 202 . Tulsa, OK 74119-4402 . 918-585-5551 Street, Suite 202 . Tulsa, OK 74119-4402 . 918-585-5551

Contact: Contact: Dan Arthrell, MADan Arthrell, MA [email protected]@csctulsa.orgJan Figart, MSJan Figart, MS [email protected]@csctulsa.org
