oilcrops market summaries€¦ · market summaries 6 food outlook ... growth would be led by palm...
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6 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2017
SUMMARY: The 2016/17 season saw an easing in the
global oilseeds and oilmeal supply and demand situation,
while vegetable oil fundamentals remained relatively tight.
Accordingly, during the recently ended October/September
marketing year, international prices for oilseeds and
oilmeals remained subdued, while those of oils/fats
maintained their strength.
Preliminary forecasts for 2017/18 point to a broadly
balanced global supply and demand situation, in both the
oilseed and meal markets as well as in the oils/fats segment.
Global oilseed production is forecast to match last season’s
record level, with small year-on-year contractions in soybean
and sunflowerseed compensated by improvements in other
oilcrops. While the global area of the seven major oilseeds
is anticipated to expand further, average yields are expected
to retreat to trend levels, following last season’s unparalleled
highs. For soybeans, individual countries’ prospects are
mixed, with year-on-year gains concentrated in the Northern
Hemisphere, notably the United States, China and Canada,
while, in South America, possible drops are looming in Brazil
and Argentina.
World oils/fats production is forecast to expand moderately
in 2017/18. Growth would be led by palm oil, with production
in Southeast Asia reverting to average growth, after the last
two seasons’ El Niño-related swings. Global oils/fats utilization
could grow less than last season, assuming moderate income
growth in a number of countries and only limited expansion
in demand from the biodiesel sector. International meal
output, on the other hand, is forecast to remain flat, given
the anticipated drop in soybean production. Based on current
forecasts, global supplies of both meals and oils/fats would
be adequate to meet global demand, thus allowing end-of-
season stocks to remain at comfortable levels. World trade in
oils/fats and meals/cakes is anticipated to keep expanding in
2017/18, albeit at a somewhat reduced pace compared with
the previous season.
In the coming months, international prices of oilseeds, oils
and meals will be influenced by changes in the production
forecasts for soybeans in South America and palm oil in
Southeast Asia. Uncertainties remain regarding the actual
course of global oil and meal demand, including, in the case
of oils/fats, the impact of recent policy changes concerning the
biodiesel market.
OILCROPS
Contact:[email protected]
FAO - Trade and Markets Division Food Outlook, November 2017
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40 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2017
Major Oilseed Exporters and Importers
Major ExportersMajor Importers
Figure 1. FAO monthly international price indices for oilseeds, vegetable oils and meals/cakes (2002-2004=100)
OILCROPS, OILS AND MEALS 1
1 Almost the entire volume of oilcrops harvested worldwide is crushed to obtain oils and fats for human nutrition or industrial purposes, and to obtain cakes and meals that are used as feed ingredients. Therefore, rather than referring to oilseeds, the analysis of the market situation is mainly undertaken in terms of oils/fats and cakes/meals. Production data for oils and meals are derived from domestic production of the relevant oilseeds in a specific year, i.e. they do not reflect the outcome of actual oilseed crushing in a given country and period. Regarding oilseed trade, situations where oilseeds are produced in one country but crushed in another one are reflected in national oil/meal consumption figures. It is important to note that data on trade in oils (meals) refer to the sum of trade in oils (meals) plus the oil (meal) equivalent of oilseeds traded. Similarly, stock figures for oils (meals) refer to the sum of oil (meal) stocks plus the oil (meal) equivalent of oilseed inventories.
PRICES 2
Current supply and demand forecasts point to steady prices The 2016/17 season saw an easing in the global oilseeds
and oilmeal supply and demand situation, while vegetable
oil fundamentals remained relatively tight. Accordingly,
during the recently ended season, international prices
for oilseeds and oilmeals remained close to the previous
season’s subdued level, whereas oils/fats values maintained
their strength – as reflected by FAO’s price indices trailing
the oilseed complex.
FAO’s price index for oilseeds averaged 154 points
2016/17, close to the subdued level witnessed in 2015/16
and well below the 2011/12 peak. The index’ course level
primarily reflects developments in the soybean market that
saw bumper soy crops from the world’s two key suppliers,
Brazil and the United States, concur with moderate
growth in global demand – a situation that drove global
soy inventories to unprecedented highs. Moreover, early
forecasts for the forthcoming 2017/18 season pointed
to another record-breaking soy crop in the Northern
Hemisphere, raising the chances for a further expansion
in world soybean supplies, hence adding to downward
pressure on prices. FAO’s price index for oilmeals, which
primarily reflects soymeal values, followed the path of the
100
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20172016201520142013201220112010
Meals/cakesVegetable oils
Oilseeds
2 For details on prices and corresponding indices, see Statistical appendix table 23
41FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2017
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Figure 5. CBOT soybean futures for MarchFigure 2. FAO monthly price index for oilseeds (2002-2004=100)
Figure 3. FAO monthly price index for oilmeals/cakes (2002-2004=100)
Figure 4. FAO monthly price index for vegetable oils (2002-2004=100)
oilseeds index very closely, recording a slight fall compared
with 2015/16. Besides spill-over weakness from soybeans,
the softening in meal prices was driven by developments
in two closely related markets. Firstly, in 2016/17, meal-
rich soybeans were predominantly crushed for oil rather
than meal, a situation that has led to burdensome soymeal
supplies. Secondly, strong competition from competitively
priced feedgrains weighed on oilmeal prices throughout
2016/17.
FAO’s price index for vegetable oils averaged 171
points in 2016/17, up 16 points compared with 2015/16,
though well below the peaks recorded earlier in the
decade. The overall supply and demand balance of oils/
fats remained relatively tight, especially during the first
half of 2016/17, driving prices upward. International
quotations for palm oil, the world’s most consumed oil,
climbed to two-and-a-half year highs, underpinned by a
slower than anticipated recovery in palm oil production.
This, combined with robust global import demand, slowed
the replenishment of stocks in the world’s top suppliers,
Indonesia and Malaysia.
Preliminary forecasts for 2017/18 point to a broadly
balanced global supply and demand situation in both the
oilseed and meal market as well as in the oils segment. If
confirmed, this would provide limited scope for marked
upward or downward movements in prices. Stock-to-use
ratios similar to those observed in the last two seasons
and the convergence, during the last two to three months,
of the current Chicago Board of Trade futures price for
soybeans with that recorded last year seem to confirm
this picture. In the coming months, international oilseed,
oil and meal values will be influenced in particular by
changes in the production forecasts for soybeans in South
America and palm oil in Southeast Asia. Uncertainties
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2015/16
2014/15
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2015/16
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2015/16
2014/15
2016/17
SAJJMAMFJDNO
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USD per tonne
S OJA M
March 2017 values March 2018 values
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42 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2017
Note: The split years bring together northern hemisphere annual crops harvested in the latter part of the first year shown, with southern hemisphere annual crops harvested in the early part of the second year shown. For tree crops, which areproduced throughout the year, calendar year production for the second year shown is used.
2015/16 2016/17estim.
2017/18 f’cast
Change 2017/18
over 2016/17
million tonnes %
Soybeans 314.7 348.7 346.4 -0.7
Rapeseed 69.9 71.4 72.1 1.0
Cottonseed 37.7 39.8 42.5 6.8
Groundnuts (unshelled) 37.9 40.7 41.7 2.5
Sunflower seed 43.2 49.1 48.4 -1.4
Palm kernels 14.6 16.2 17.1 5.5
Copra 5.2 5.3 5.8 9.4
Total 523.2 571.3 574.1 0.5
Table 1. World production of major oilcrops
remain regarding the actual course of global oil and meal
demand, including, in the case of oils/fats, the impact of
recent policy changes concerning the market for biodiesel.
OILSEEDS
2017/18 production forecast marginally above last season’s record level After surging by 9 percent in 2016/17, global oilseed
production is tentatively pegged at 586 million tonnes
in 2017/18 – marginally above last season’s level. Based
on current forecasts, year-on-year contractions in global
soybean and sunflowerseed production would be offset
by sizeable gains in cottonseed and, to a lesser extent,
groundnut, rapeseed and palmkernel.
Global 2017/18 soybean production is forecast at
346 million tonnes — 1 percent below last season’s all-
time high, but still the second largest output on record.
The anticipated drop would stem from a return to trend
yields, after near optimal weather propelled yields to
record-highs last season. Global plantings, on the other
hand, are projected to expand by about 4 percent. In the
Northern Hemisphere, where harvests are about to near
completion, production is pegged at record or near-record
levels in all key producing countries except India. In the
United States, the world’s leading soybean producer,
latest estimates peg production at an unprecedented
121 million tonnes. The increase would mainly originate
from record-high soy plantings (as farmers trimmed
wheat and coarse grains acreage), while yields would
retreat from last season’s peak. In China, production is
anticipated to rise for the second consecutive year. The
reversal from the prior, downward trend was supported
by reforms of China’s maize policy regime, with lower
support payments for maize enticing farmers to shift
to alternative crops, in particular soybeans. A record-
breaking harvest is also reported from Canada, where
farmers raised soy plantings on the back of attractive
prices. In India, by contrast, production is poised to
drop sharply, following a sizeable contraction in area
sown and less favourable weather conditions than last
year. In South America, where sowings of the 2017/18
crop are now underway, aggregate output is anticipated
to drop by almost 5 percent from last season’s record
level on expectations of only modest gains in plantings
and a return to trend yields, assuming average weather
conditions. Based on these forecasts, Brazil’s output could
retreat by 6 percent, albeit the country would still harvest
the second-largest crop on record. On the other hand, in
Argentina, area planted could decline further, influenced
by crop rotation requirements and government policies
favouring competing crops as well as poor weather,
which, together, could drive production to a four-year low.
Global rapeseed production is currently forecast to
exceed last season’s all-time high by a small margin.
While global area planted would be close to record
levels, average yields could trail behind last season’s top
level, thus limiting production gains. The anticipated
production rise would stem from larger crops in the EU
and CIS countries, reflecting yield improvements in the
case of the EU and the Russian Federation, and higher
plantings in Ukraine. Meanwhile, in Canada, plantings
surged but yields remained low, keeping production about
unchanged. By contrast, production is forecast to fall in
India and China, where farmers have cut plantings in
response to, respectively, low domestic prices and the
termination of public support programmes. In Australia,
production is expected to drop sharply, following
unfavourable weather.
Global sunflowerseed production is projected to trail
behind last season’s record. Based on current forecasts,
sizeable contractions in the CIS and the United States
would be partly offset by gains in the EU, Argentina and
Turkey. Meanwhile, global cottonseed production is set
to expand under the lead of the United States, Pakistan
and India, underpinned by higher plantings. Also global
groundnut production could grow, boosted by top yields,
with production gains in the United States and China
expected to more than offsett losses in India.
43FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2017
Note: Refer to footnote 1 on page 40 for overall definitions and methodology.1 Includes oils and fats of vegetable, animal and marine origin.2 Production plus opening stocks.3 Residual of the balance.4 Trade data refer to exports based on a common October/September
marketing season.5 Major exporters include Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, Malaysia,
Ukraine and the United States.6 All meal figures are expressed in protein equivalent; meals include all meals
and cakes derived from oilcrops as well as meals of marine and animal origin.7 Major exporters include Argentina, Brazil, Canada, India, Indonesia, Malaysia,
Paraguay, the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Uruguay and the United States.
Table 2. World oilcrops and product market ata glance
2015/16 2016/17 estim.
2017/18 f’cast
Change: 2017/18
over 2016/17
million tonnes %
TOTAL OILCROPS
Production 534.8 582.6 585.7 0.5
OILS AND FATS 1
Production 206.1 223.3 226.5 1.4
Supply 2 244.9 257.7 263.5 2.2
Utilization 3 212.1 219.8 226.0 2.8
Trade 4 115.1 122.8 125.3 2.1
Global stock-to-use ratio (%) 16.2 16.8 16.6
Major exporters stock-to-disappearance ratio (%) 5
10.0 10.5 10.8
MEALS AND CAKES 6
Production 137.8 151.5 150.8 -0.4
Supply 2 163.9 176.6 179.2 1.5
Utilization 3 139.2 145.6 150.4 3.3
Trade 4 90.3 96.2 99.0 2.9
Global stock-to-use ratio (%) 25.1 28.3 28.6
Major exporters stock-to-disappearance ratio (%) 7
11.1 13.0 12.1
FAO PRICE INDICES (Oct-Sept) (2002-2004=100)
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 Change: Oct-Sept 2016/17
overOct-Sept 2015/16
%
Oilseeds 155 151 154 1.8
Oilmeals/cakes 194 168 160 -5.0
Vegetable oils 153 155 171 10.0
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OILS AND FATS 3
2017/18 oils/fats production to grow less than last seasonFAO’s current 2017/18 crop forecasts translate into
a further, albeit modest, expansion in global oils/fats
production to 226.5 million tonnes, as opposed to last
season, when global output increased sharply due to palm
oil’s recovery from the 2015 El Niño episode.
As for individual oils, in 2017/18, further growth in palm
oil production and, to a lesser extent, rape, cottonseed
and lauric oils, would compensate a fall in soybean and
sunflowerseed oil. Global palm oil production is expected
to revert to an average growth pace. In Indonesia, palm
oil production would keep expanding, allowing the country
to consolidate its position as the world’s leading producer.
By contrast, Malaysia’s output is pegged only marginally
above the country’s 2014/15 record, as growth continues to
be affected by slow expansion in mature area and limited
productivity gains, partly stemming from a protracted
shortage in plantation workers.
Global oils/fats supplies in 2017/18, which comprise
2017/18 production and 2016/17 carry-out stocks, are
forecast to outstrip last season’s level by 2–3 percent, with
last year’s rise in global inventories contributing to this
season’s supply growth.
Supply improvements will be concentrated in Indonesia,
Malaysia, the United States and the EU, mostly reflecting
good crops. Conversely, domestic availabilities are projected
to expand only scantily in Argentina, Canada and China, and to drop compared with last season in Australia, Brazil, the CIS and India, due to either poor harvests or
reduced carry-in stocks.
Global oils/fats utilization set to keep expanding World consumption of oils/fats in 2017/18 is pegged at
226 million tonnes, implying a year-on-year growth of
about 3 percent, slightly less than in the past three seasons.
With regard to individual oils, soy and palm oil are
expected to lead consumption growth, supported by ample
supplies and by price discounts relative to other vegetable
oils. The two oils’ joint share in total consumption is
set to increase further, reaching 57 percent. Moderate
consumption improvements are expected for the other oils/
fats, except for rapeseed oil, which could fall on the back of
reduced 2016/17 carry-out stocks.
While population and economic growth remain the
key drivers behind the rising uptake of oils/fats for food
and other traditional uses, especially in Asia, subdued
economic growth in a number of countries, together with
limited growth in oils/fats demand by the biodiesel industry
could temper growth in oils/fats consumption in 2017/18.
Biodiesel production and, with it, oils/fats uptake would
depend primarily on mandatory national consumption
targets, which are anticipated to remain unchanged in
most countries, except for Brazil and the United States,
where higher consumption targets are set to be introduced
in 2018. Meanwhile, demand for feedstock other than
vegetable oil – especially used cooking oil – continues to
gain ground in several countries, aided by policy incentives.
3 This section refers to oils from all origins, which – in addition to products derived from the oil crops discussed under the section on oilseeds – includes palm oil, marine oils as well as animal fats.
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44 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2017
Figure 7. World stocks and ratios of oils/fats (including the oil contained in seeds stored)
Figure 6. Global production and utilizationof oils/fats
Furthermore, discretionary blending of transport fuels
with biodiesel is anticipated to remain negligible, as its
profitability continues to be eroded by persistently high price
premiums of vegetable oils relative to crude mineral oils.
Developing nations in Asia are anticipated to continue
driving growth in global oils/fats uptake. While average or
above-average growth is anticipated in China, Indonesia,
Malaysia and Pakistan, a slowdown is possible in
India, given the projected drop in local supplies. In the
United States, Brazil, the EU and Argentina, changes in
biodiesel policies could affect oils/fats demand. In the
United States and Brazil, biodiesel production and,
with it, oils/fats uptake could expand as higher domestic
consumption targets are introduced. Furthermore, the
United States recently restricted biodiesel imports from its
main foreign supplier, Argentina, a measure that, in turn,
could hit Argentina’s biodiesel production. By contrast, the
EU’s recent decision to lift its import barriers on Argentine
biodiesel could weigh on the bloc’s biodiesel production, as
local refiners are affected by competitively priced imports.
Global oils/fats inventories to remain ample in 2017/18 In 2017/18, overall production is forecast to essentially
match global utilization. Accordingly, global inventories
– including the oil contained in stored oilseeds – would
remain close to last season’s above-average level.
Commodity-wise, palm oil stocks are projected to rise
(although inventories would remain below the level
observed before El Niño hit production) and more than
offset drops in soyoil inventories. As for the other oils,
reserves of groundnut oil could climb to record levels while
sunflower oil inventories may drop, mirroring the respective
crop outturns. Among main stock-holding countries,
sizeable draw-downs in inventories are forecast for India,
Brazil and Argentina due to reduced harvests and, in
Argentina’s case, also in order to support exports. By
contrast, noticeable stock replenishments are expected in
Indonesia, Malaysia, the United States and the EU.
While the above forecasts would lead to a fractional
drop in the global stock-to-use ratio in 2017/18, the stock-
to-disappearance ratio for the major exporting countries4
would inch up, hence remaining at near-record levels.
Growth in oils/fats transactions to slowdown in 2017/18Global trade in oils/fats – including the oil contained in
traded oilseeds – is forecast to expand less strongly than last
season, when a rebound in palm oil shipments propelled
global transactions upward. Palm and soybean oil, the two
most traded oils, would lead the year-on-year expansion in
global trade, backed by production gains in palm and record-
large opening stocks in soy. On the other hand, sunflower
and rapeseed oil shipments could fall on reduced national
availabilities. Aided by its more competitive price, palm oil
should be able to regain market share lost to other oils,
especially soyoil, in the last two seasons.
On the import side, demand growth will remain
concentrated in developing countries in Asia, led by China
and India, reflecting relatively slow growth in domestic
supplies. In India, imports would rise despite recent hikes
in the country’s import tariffs, as steady population and
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6
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2017/182016/172015/162014/152013/14
million tonnes million tonnes
estim. f’cast
Balance (production minus utilization, right axis)
Production (left axis) Utilization (left axis)
0
10
20
30
40
2017/182016/172015/162014/152013/148
11
14
17
20
million tonnes percent
Major exporters Rest of the world
World Stock-to-use ratio
Stock-to-disappearance ratio of major exporters
estim. f’cast
4 Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, Malaysia, Ukraine and the United States.
45FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2017
Figure 8. Oils/fats imports by region or major country (including the oil contained in seed imports)
0
10
20
30
40
50
2017/182015/162013/142011/122009/10
Latin America Asia excl. China (total)Europe
China (total)
million tonnes
United States & CanadaAfrica
f’cast
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income growth underpin food demand. Among developed
countries, net purchases by the EU are forecast to drop by
almost 1 million tonnes on account of improved domestic
availabilities.
Global export growth would rest primarily on record
sales of palm oil by Indonesia and a marked rebound in
shipments from Malaysia. Modest increases in deliveries are
also expected in Argentina, Brazil, the United States and
Canada, in part entailing inventory drawdowns. In Argentina,
the rise in exportable supplies would also stem from possible
cuts in domestic biodiesel production. On the other hand,
export contractions are expected in Ukraine and Australia,
reflecting prospective declines in oils/fats production.
MEALS AND CAKES 5
Global meal production to remain flat in 2017/18Based on current crop forecasts, 2017/18 global meal
production is pegged at 151 million tonnes (expressed in
protein equivalent), which would be fractionally below last
season’s all-time record. Contractions in soymeal and, to a
lesser extent, sunflower meal, would be offset by rises in
other meals/cakes.
Notwithstanding the portended stagnation in
production, global oilmeal supplies would grow by
1 to 2 percent, reflecting a conspicuous rise in carry-in
stocks. The most sizeable supply gain would occur in
the United States, the world’s leading meal supplier.
Underpinned by record-large opening stocks and
another bumper crop, US supplies are set to swell to an
unprecedented 47 million tonnes (expressed in protein
equivalent), marking the fifth consecutive year-on-
year growth. Following good crop outturns, moderate
expansions are also expected in China, the world’s top
consumer, Canada and the EU. Conversely, availabilities
could contract in India, Brazil, Ukraine and Australia,
mirroring drops in domestic output. Argentina’s supplies
are forecast to decrease only marginally, as ample carry-in
stocks would compensate prospective production drops.
Meal consumption set to expand further in 2017/18 Tentatively pegged at 150 million tonnes (expressed in
protein equivalent), global consumption would expand
further in 2017/18, albeit at a lower rate than last season.
In many countries, livestock and aquaculture industries are
expected to continue expanding, with a parallel expansion
in oilmeal uptake. However, global meat production could
grow at a reduced pace, which, combined with record-large
supplies of competitively priced feed grains, could weigh on
growth in meal utilization.
As in previous years, prospective utilization growth
would be mainly covered by soybean meal, with smaller
gains also forecast for cottonseed, rapeseed and groundnut
meal. Developing countries in Asia – led by China – should
remain the main engine of overall growth. However,
in China, the world’s largest meal consumer, uptake
by feed millers could grow less than last season, when
domestic soymeal consumption received a boost from the
government’s decision to restrict imports of DDGs (distiller’s
Figure 9. Oils/fats exports by major exporters (including the oil contained in seed exports)
0
10
20
30
2017/18 forecast
2016/17 estimate
million tonnes
USAIndonesiaCanada MalaysiaArgentina Brazil
5 This section refers to meals from all origins; in addition to products derived from the oil crops discussed under the section on oilseeds, also fishmeal and meals of animal origin are included.
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46 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2017
Figure 11. World stocks and ratios of meals/cakes (in protein equivalent and including the meal contained in seeds stored)
Figure 10. Global production and utilization of meals/cakes (in protein equivalent)
dried grains). Domestic meal demand could also be
trimmed by sluggish growth in the country’s pig and poultry
sectors, where oilmeal use is concentrated. Elsewhere in
Asia, consumption is anticipated to rise at about average
rates, including in India, Indonesia, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand, Viet Nam
and Turkey.
In the EU and the United States, the world’s second
and third largest consumers, meal consumption is forecast
to expand further, sustained by ample domestic supplies.
In Brazil, the prospective drop in domestic supplies could
constrain meal uptake.
Global meal inventories to remain about unchangedBased on current forecasts, in 2017/18, global meal output
would essentially match consumption, as opposed to last
season, when production outstripped demand, triggering
a sizeable rise in inventories. Therefore, in the current
season, global oilmeal stocks (including the meal contained
in stored seeds) are forecast to remain close to last season’s
record level, including stable reserves of soymeal, the
world’s dominant meal.
In Brazil and Argentina, sizeable stock drawdowns
could be required to make up for poor domestic supplies
as well as to support higher exports. The above reductions
would be offset by additional replenishments in the
United States where, boosted by another bumper
soybean crop, carry-out stocks are forecast to climb to an
11-year high. In China, where inventories have fallen in
the last two years, in part aided by government efforts to
cut state reserves, inventories could expand again, given
the prospective rebound in local soybean production and
further increases in imports.
Based on the above forecasts, both the global stock-to-
use ratio and the stock-to-disappearance ratio for the major
exporting countries6 would drop only slightly from last
season’s high level.
Expansion in global meal transactions could slow downInternational meal trade (including the meal contained in
traded oilseeds) is forecast to grow at a below-average
pace in 2017/18. As in previous years, soybean meal would
continue to drive growth. Sustained by record-high supplies
and, hence, competitive prices, soymeal transaction would
rise for the tenth consecutive year. Trade in all other
meals/cakes would advance marginally, except for global
sunflower meal shipments, which could contract following
this season’s reduced crops.
With regard to imports, Asian countries would
continue to dominate demand. In contrast to past years,
China could account for only around one-third of Asia’s
anticipated import expansion, with purchases by the world’s
top importer forecast to rise by only 2 percent. Factors
contributing to such below-average growth include the
anticipated rebound in local soy production, relatively weak
growth in domestic meal demand, the continued release of
state reserves, and a marked acceleration of imports in the
final stretch of the 2016/17 marketing season. Elsewhere
in Asia, steady growth in import demand is expected,
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0
5
10
115
130
145
160
2017/182016/172015/162014/152013/14
million tonnes million tonnes
estim. f’cast
Balance (production minus utilization, right axis)
Production (left axis) Utilization (left axis)
0
10
20
30
2017/182016/172015/162014/152013/145
10
15
20million tonnes percent
Major exporters Rest of the World
World Stock-to-use ratio
Stock-to-disappearance ratio of Major exporters
estim. f’cast
6 Argentina, Brazil, Canada, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Paraguay, the Russian Federation, Ukraine, the United States and Uruguay.
47FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2017
Figure 12. Meal/cake imports by region or major country (in protein equivalent and including the meal contained in seed imports)
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Figure 13. Meal/cake exports by major exporters (in protein equivalent and including the meal contained in seed exports)
especially in Thailand, Pakistan, the Republic of Korea,
the Philippines and Viet Nam. As for developed countries,
in the EU, the world’s second largest buyer, imports would
record only a small increase, as domestic supply gains
would help meet local requirements.
Export growth is expected to concentrate in the
United States, Canada and, providing current production
forecasts materialize, also in Brazil and Argentina −
the world’s four largest suppliers. Compared with last
season, sales by the United States and Canada are
projected to expand by, respectively, 2.0 million tonnes
and 1.2 million tonnes (expressed in product weight
and including the meal contained in seed shipments),
supported by bumper crops as well as, in the case of the
United States, largest-ever opening stocks. South America’s
export expansion is pegged at 4.2 million tonnes, divided
about equally between Argentina and Brazil. In both
countries, the rise in shipments would rest on the release
of domestic stocks. Similar to last season, Brazil, the
United States and Argentina, the world’s top three suppliers
of soybean meal, can be expected to strongly compete for
market share. With regard to other suppliers, deliveries by
Paraguay, Uruguay and the Russian Federation could
remain about unchanged, whereas the contraction in sales
forecast for India, Ukraine and Australia mainly reflects
poor domestic crops. In the case of India, soy processors
continue to face difficulties in exporting soymeal at
internationally competitive prices.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2017/182015/162013/142011/122009/10
Latin America Asia excl. China (total)
EuropeChina (total)
million tonnes
United States & CanadaAfrica
f’cast
0
10
20
30
2016/17 estimate
2017/18 forecast
million tonnes
USACanada India ParaguayArgentina Brazil
90 91FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2017
OILC
RO
PS
CO
UN
TRY
DA
TEPO
LIC
Y C
ATE
GO
RY
/IN
STR
UM
ENT
DES
CR
IPTI
ON
Thai
lan
d
May
-17
Sto
ck r
elea
seSo
ld 1
.66
mill
ion
to
nn
es o
f fo
od
-gra
de
rice
th
rou
gh
an
au
ctio
n h
eld
on
24
May
201
7. T
he
ten
der
off
ered
a t
ota
l of
1.82
mill
ion
to
nn
es f
or
sale
, in
clu
din
g 1
.5 m
illio
n t
on
nes
of
frag
ran
t ri
ce, 0
.2 m
illio
n t
on
nes
of
wh
ite
rice
an
d 0
.1 m
illio
n t
on
nes
of
glu
tin
ou
s an
d b
roke
n r
ice.
Jun
-17
Sto
ck r
elea
seO
ffer
ed 2
.2 m
illio
n t
on
nes
of
rice
fit
for
no
n-f
oo
d u
ses
thro
ug
h a
ten
der
hel
d o
n 1
5 Ju
ne
2017
. Sal
es f
rom
th
is t
end
er w
ere
susp
end
ed in
Ju
ly,
afte
r th
e A
dm
inis
trat
ive
Co
urt
ord
ered
a t
emp
ora
ry s
top
to
go
vern
men
t st
ock
au
ctio
ns
of
no
n-f
oo
d g
rad
e ri
ce.
Jun
-17
Pro
du
ctio
n s
up
po
rt
Ap
pro
ved
a b
ud
get
of
THB
1.8
4 b
illio
n (
USD
54
mill
ion
) to
ext
end
cro
p in
sura
nce
fo
r th
e 20
17 m
ain
pad
dy
cro
p. U
nd
er t
he
pro
gra
mm
e,
com
pen
sati
on
fo
r d
amag
es c
ause
d b
y n
atu
ral d
isas
ters
wo
uld
be
rais
ed b
y 13
per
cen
t to
TH
B 1
260
per
rai
(U
SD 2
32 p
er h
a) a
nd
by
14 p
erce
nt
in t
he
case
of
pes
t- o
r d
isea
se-r
elat
ed lo
sses
to
TH
B 6
30 p
er r
ai (
USD
116
per
ha)
. In
sura
nce
pre
miu
ms
wo
uld
als
o b
e lo
wer
ed b
y 9
per
cen
t to
TH
B 9
7.37
per
rai
(U
SD 1
8 p
er h
a). T
he
sch
eme
is e
xpec
ted
to
co
ver
up
to
30
mill
ion
rai
(4.
8 m
illio
n h
a) o
f p
add
ies
and
will
ru
n b
etw
een
1
Jun
e 20
17 t
o 3
1 A
ug
ust
201
7, e
xcep
t in
so
uth
ern
pro
vin
ces,
wh
ere
it w
ill b
e im
ple
men
ted
un
til 1
5 D
ecem
ber
201
7.
Jul-
17St
ock
rel
ease
An
no
un
ced
th
at it
wo
uld
off
er 1
60 0
00 t
on
nes
of
foo
d-g
rad
e ri
ce f
rom
go
vern
men
t re
serv
es, t
hro
ug
h a
n a
uct
ion
on
18
July
201
7.
Jul-
17Pr
od
uct
ion
su
pp
ort
Ap
pro
ved
a b
ud
get
of
THB
2.8
7 b
illio
n (
USD
84
mill
ion
) to
pro
mo
te p
rod
uct
ion
of
rice
gro
wn
org
anic
ally
an
d a
cco
rdin
g t
o g
oo
d a
gri
cult
ura
l p
ract
ices
(G
AP)
. Th
e p
rog
ram
me
will
be
imp
lem
ente
d b
etw
een
201
7 an
d 2
021,
wit
h t
he
aim
of
assi
stin
g p
rod
uce
rs in
fin
din
g a
mar
ket
for
600
000
ton
nes
of
org
anic
pad
dy
and
10.
3 m
illio
n t
on
nes
of
GA
P ce
rtifi
ed p
add
y. F
or
the
pu
rpo
se, i
t w
ill p
rovi
de
a 3
per
cen
t in
tere
st s
ub
sid
y o
n
soft
loan
s to
en
titi
es a
gre
ein
g t
o e
nte
r in
to p
urc
has
e ag
reem
ents
wit
h p
rod
uce
rs, p
rovi
ded
th
at t
hey
pay
15
per
cen
t m
ore
th
an m
arke
t p
rice
s fo
r o
rgan
ic r
ice
or
4 p
erce
nt
mo
re in
th
e ca
se o
f G
AP
cert
ified
ric
e.
Au
g-1
7St
ock
rel
ease
Lift
ed a
Ju
ly 2
017
sale
s su
spen
sio
n o
rder
fo
r 2.
6 m
illio
n t
on
nes
of
no
n-f
oo
d g
rad
e ri
ce f
rom
go
vern
men
t re
serv
es t
hat
had
bee
n t
end
ered
off
in
Ap
ril a
nd
Ju
ne
2017
. Th
e d
ecis
ion
, by
the
Sup
rem
e A
dm
inis
trat
ive
Co
urt
, allo
wed
sal
es o
f 0.
5 m
illio
n t
on
nes
of
rice
fo
r in
du
stri
al u
se t
o
pro
ceed
, alo
ng
wit
h t
he
rele
ase
of
2.1
mill
ion
to
nn
es o
f fe
ed q
ual
ity
rice
.
Sep
-17
Pro
du
ctio
n s
up
po
rt
Ap
pro
ved
a b
ud
get
of
THB
87.
2 b
illio
n (
USD
2.6
bill
ion
) to
imp
lem
ent
thre
e sc
hem
es g
eare
d a
t as
sist
ing
ric
e p
rod
uce
rs a
nd
eas
ing
do
wn
war
d
pre
ssu
re o
n p
rice
s at
har
vest
tim
e. T
he
firs
t sc
hem
e, a
n o
n-f
arm
mo
rtg
agin
g p
rog
ram
me
for
2.0
mill
ion
to
nn
es o
f m
ain
-cro
p p
add
y, w
ill r
un
fr
om
1 N
ove
mb
er 2
017
to 2
8 Fe
bru
ary
2018
. Un
der
th
e p
rog
ram
me,
par
tici
pat
ing
far
mer
s w
ou
ld r
ecei
ve T
HB
10
800
(USD
322
) p
er t
on
ne
for
Ho
m M
ali a
nd
glu
tin
ou
s p
add
y, w
hile
pro
du
cers
of
wh
ite
pad
dy
and
Pat
hu
m T
han
i fra
gra
nt
pad
dy
wo
uld
rec
eive
TH
B 7
200
(U
SD 2
15)
and
8
500
(USD
253
) p
er t
on
ne,
res
pec
tive
ly. A
no
ther
TH
B 1
500
per
to
nn
e (U
SD 4
5) w
ou
ld b
e av
aile
d t
o c
om
pen
sate
far
mer
s fo
r st
ora
ge
cost
s, w
hile
TH
B 1
200
per
rai
(U
SD 2
23 p
er h
a) w
ou
ld g
o t
o s
up
po
rt h
arve
stin
g a
nd
qu
alit
y im
pro
vem
ents
, fo
r a
max
imu
m o
f TH
B 1
2 00
0 (U
SD 3
58)
per
h
ou
seh
old
. Tw
o s
epar
ate
sch
emes
, eac
h r
un
nin
g f
rom
1 O
cto
ber
201
7 to
30
Sep
tem
ber
201
8, w
ou
ld a
vail
cred
it t
o c
oo
per
ativ
es a
nd
far
mer
g
rou
ps
to e
nco
ura
ge
them
to
del
ay t
he
sale
of
2.5
mill
ion
to
nn
es o
f p
add
y, a
nd
tar
get
to
sto
ckp
ile a
no
ther
8.0
mill
ion
to
nn
es o
f p
add
y b
y p
rovi
din
g in
tere
st s
ub
sid
ies
to p
roce
sso
rs a
nd
tra
der
s ag
reei
ng
to
sto
re s
up
plie
s fo
r tw
o t
o s
ix m
on
ths.
Turk
eyO
ct-1
7Im
po
rt r
equ
irem
ents
Rel
ease
d o
ffici
al s
tate
men
ts t
hat
imp
ort
s o
f n
ine
agri
cult
ura
l pro
du
cts
fro
m t
he
Ru
ssia
n F
eder
atio
n, i
ncl
ud
ing
pad
dy,
wo
uld
req
uir
e g
ove
rnm
ent
app
rova
l as
of
9 O
cto
ber
201
7.
Vie
t N
amJu
l-17
Exp
ort
str
ateg
y
Ap
pro
ved
a r
ice
exp
ort
dev
elo
pm
ent
stra
teg
y fo
r 20
17–2
020,
wit
h a
vis
ion
to
203
0. T
he
do
cum
ent
lays
ou
t an
an
nu
al e
xpo
rt t
arg
et o
f 4.
5–5.
0 m
illio
n t
on
nes
of
rice
fo
r 20
20, v
alu
ed a
t U
SD 2
.2–2
.3 b
illio
n. T
he
cou
ntr
y w
ou
ld s
triv
e to
sh
ore
up
th
e va
lue
of
its
rice
exp
ort
s to
USD
2.5
b
illio
n b
etw
een
202
1 an
d 2
030,
wh
ile g
rad
ual
ly r
edu
cin
g v
olu
mes
sh
ipp
ed t
o 4
.0 m
illio
n t
on
nes
. Th
e co
mp
osi
tio
n o
f ri
ce s
hip
men
ts w
ou
ld b
e re
stru
ctu
red
, wit
h d
eliv
erie
s o
f In
dic
a w
hit
e ri
ce t
o a
cco
un
t fo
r 25
per
cen
t o
f o
vera
ll ex
po
rts
by
2030
, wh
ile t
he
shar
e o
f fr
agra
nt,
Jap
on
ica
and
oth
er s
pec
ialt
y ri
ce w
as r
aise
d t
o a
co
mb
ined
40
per
cen
t, t
he
shar
e o
f g
luti
no
us
rice
to
25
per
cen
t, a
nd
of
oth
er t
ypes
to
10
per
cen
t. In
ad
dit
ion
, th
e co
un
try
wo
uld
see
k to
red
uce
th
e sh
are
of
Asi
an s
hip
men
ts in
ove
rall
exp
ort
s to
50
per
cen
t b
y 20
30, w
hile
rai
sin
g it
s m
arke
t sh
are
in a
ll o
ther
reg
ion
s, e
spec
ially
th
e A
mer
icas
, Afr
ica
and
th
e N
ear
East
.
OIL
CRO
PS:
MA
JOR
POLI
CY D
EVEL
OPM
ENTS
MID
-MA
Y T
O M
ID-O
CTO
BER
2017
*
CO
UN
TRY
PRO
DU
CT
DA
TEPO
LIC
Y
CA
TEG
OR
Y/
INST
RU
MEN
TD
ESC
RIP
TIO
N
Arg
enti
na
Ag
ricu
ltu
ral P
olic
yM
ay-1
7So
ybea
ns
Set
the
leve
l of
sub
sid
ies
pro
vid
ed t
o s
oyb
ean
far
mer
s in
th
e co
un
try’
s d
isad
van
tag
ed n
ort
her
n r
egio
ns
at A
RS
290
per
to
nn
e.
Seed
po
licy
Jun
-17
Ag
ricu
ltu
ral
cro
ps
Urg
ed f
arm
ers
to d
ecla
re t
he
qu
anti
ty a
nd
ori
gin
of
seed
s ke
pt
on
-far
m f
or
pla
nti
ng
, so
as
to e
nsu
re f
ull
tran
spar
ency
in t
he
do
mes
tic
seed
mar
ket
and
fac
ilita
te t
he
colle
ctio
n o
f ro
yalt
ies
by
seed
pro
du
cers
.
Bio
fuel
po
licy
Jun
e-17
to
O
ct-1
7B
iod
iese
lTe
mp
ora
rily
su
spen
ded
th
e co
un
try’
s ex
po
rt d
uty
on
bio
die
sel,
wit
h a
vie
w t
o im
pro
ve t
he
com
pet
itiv
enes
s o
f A
rgen
tin
e b
iod
iese
l o
n t
he
wo
rld
mar
ket.
Au
stra
lia/
Euro
pea
n U
nio
nFr
ee t
rad
e ag
reem
ent
May
-17
Rap
esee
dC
on
du
cted
a jo
int
sco
pin
g e
xerc
ise
on
a f
utu
re f
ree
trad
e ag
reem
ent
bet
wee
n A
ust
ralia
an
d t
he
Euro
pea
n U
nio
n, w
hic
h c
ou
ld
faci
litat
e ex
po
rts
of
Au
stra
lian
rap
esee
d t
o t
he
EU.
Au
stra
liaG
MO
po
licy
Jun
-17
Rap
esee
dIs
sued
a p
arlia
men
tary
pet
itio
n c
allin
g f
or
com
pen
sati
on
of
farm
ers
wh
en G
M-r
apes
eed
co
nta
min
atio
n c
ause
s th
em t
o lo
se t
hei
r G
M-f
ree
or
org
anic
cer
tifi
cati
on
.
Bo
livia
Exp
ort
po
licy
May
-17
Soyb
ean
sR
aise
d a
nn
ual
so
ybea
n e
xpo
rt q
uo
ta, i
n a
bid
to
pro
mo
te f
ore
ign
sal
es w
hile
co
nti
nu
ing
to
gu
aran
tee
that
do
mes
tic
con
sum
pti
on
re
qu
irem
ents
are
met
.
Bra
zil
Pest
co
ntr
ol
May
-17
Soyb
ean
sSe
t u
p a
wo
rkin
g g
rou
p w
ith
co
un
terp
arts
fro
m P
arag
uay
an
d B
oliv
ia t
o d
evel
op
join
t p
rog
ram
mes
on
co
ntr
olli
ng
th
e sp
read
of
Asi
an s
oyb
ean
ru
st in
So
uth
Am
eric
a.
Bra
zil/C
hin
aB
ilate
ral c
oo
per
atio
nM
ay-1
7So
ybea
ns
Set
up
a B
razi
lian
-Ch
ines
e in
vest
men
t fu
nd
fo
r in
fras
tru
ctu
re p
roje
cts,
wit
h a
vie
w t
o a
llow
Ch
ina
to in
vest
in B
razi
lian
rai
lro
ad,
hig
hw
ay a
nd
po
rt v
entu
res
that
wo
uld
low
er t
he
cost
of
ship
pin
g r
aw a
gri
cult
ura
l pro
du
cts
such
as
soyb
ean
s to
Ch
ina.
Bra
zil
Ag
ricu
ltu
ral P
olic
yJu
n-1
7A
gri
cult
ura
l cr
op
s
Pres
ente
d t
he
agri
cult
ura
l su
pp
ort
pro
gra
mm
e fo
r 20
17/1
8 th
at g
ran
ts in
crea
sed
loan
s fo
r co
mm
erci
al f
arm
ing
(fo
cusi
ng
on
in
vest
men
ts in
on
-far
m s
tock
-ho
ldin
g f
acili
ties
an
d im
pro
ved
pro
du
ctio
n t
ech
no
log
ies)
an
d r
aise
s p
ub
lic o
utl
ays
for
cro
p in
sura
nce
su
bsi
die
s.
Pest
co
ntr
ol
Jul-
17So
ybea
ns
Envi
sag
ed t
o e
xten
d a
n a
nn
ual
so
ybea
n-f
ree
per
iod
to
th
e St
ate
of
Mat
o G
ross
o d
o S
ul.
This
is m
ean
t to
hel
p c
on
tro
l th
e sp
read
o
f A
sian
so
ybea
n r
ust
fro
m o
ne
gro
win
g s
easo
n t
o t
he
nex
t.
Tran
spo
rt
infr
astr
uct
ure
Au
g-1
7So
ybea
ns,
gra
ins
Allo
cate
d f
un
ds
for
up
gra
din
g t
he
last
un
pav
ed s
tret
ch o
f h
igh
way
BR
163,
th
e ke
y ar
tery
lin
kin
g t
he
Stat
e o
f M
ato
Gro
sso
to
B
razi
l’s n
ewly
op
ened
po
rts
on
th
e n
ort
h-A
tlan
tic
coas
t.
Bio
fuel
po
licy
Sep
-17
Bio
die
sel
Co
nsi
der
ed r
aisi
ng
man
dat
ory
ble
nd
ing
of
bio
die
sel i
nto
reg
ula
r tr
ansp
ort
die
sel f
rom
8 p
erce
nt
to 1
0 p
erce
nt
in M
arch
201
8, o
ne
year
ear
lier
than
ori
gin
ally
pla
nn
ed.
Can
ada
Feed
sta
nd
ard
sM
ay-1
7C
amel
ina
oil
Ap
pro
ved
th
e u
se o
f m
ech
anic
ally
ext
ract
ed c
amel
ina
oil
as a
fee
d in
gre
die
nt
for
farm
ed fi
sh.
GM
O p
olic
yM
ay-1
7G
M f
oo
dR
ejec
ted
a d
raft
par
liam
enta
ry b
ill c
allin
g f
or
man
dat
ory
lab
ellin
g o
f g
enet
ical
ly m
od
ified
fo
od
s.
Hea
lth
po
licy
May
-17
Hyd
rog
enat
ed
veg
etab
le o
ilsA
nn
ou
nce
d p
lan
s to
pro
hib
it t
he
use
of
par
tial
ly h
ydro
gen
ated
oils
by
sum
mer
201
8, in
a b
id t
o r
edu
ce t
he
po
pu
lati
on
’s t
ran
s-fa
t in
take
to
th
e lo
wes
t le
vel p
oss
ible
.
Sect
or
dev
elo
pm
ent
mea
sure
sM
ay-1
7R
apes
eed
Set
up
a p
ub
lic-p
riva
te r
esea
rch
par
tner
ship
to
dev
elo
p a
dva
nce
d h
igh
-yie
ldin
g r
apes
eed
var
ieti
es, w
ith
a v
iew
to
up
ho
ld t
he
com
pet
itiv
enes
s o
f th
e co
un
try’
s ra
pes
eed
sec
tor.
Mar
ket
reg
ula
tio
nM
ay-1
7G
rain
s an
d
oils
eed
sPl
ann
ed e
xten
din
g, b
eyo
nd
its
exp
iry
dat
e o
f 1
Au
gu
st 2
017,
a t
emp
ora
ry r
even
ue
cap
on
rai
l tra
nsp
ort
s o
f g
rain
s an
d o
ilsee
ds
fro
m C
anad
a’s
Wes
tern
reg
ion
s to
th
e co
un
try’
s m
ain
po
rts.
Pest
icid
e re
gu
lati
on
Sep
-17
Inse
ctic
ide
'Mat
ado
r'Pr
op
ose
d, b
ased
on
saf
ety
con
cern
s, t
he
com
ple
te p
has
e-o
ut
of
Mat
ado
r, an
inse
ctic
ide
wid
ely
use
d in
rap
esee
d c
ult
ivat
ion
.
Hea
lth
po
licy
Sep
-17
Hyd
rog
enat
ed
veg
etab
le o
ilsC
on
firm
ed a
co
un
try-
wid
e b
an o
n p
arti
ally
hyd
rog
enat
ed o
ils. W
ith
en
try
into
fo
rce
in S
epte
mb
er 2
018,
th
e b
an w
ill in
clu
de
imp
ort
ed p
rod
uct
s an
d f
oo
ds
pre
par
ed a
nd
ser
ved
in r
esta
ura
nts
.
Can
ada/
Euro
pea
n
Un
ion
Free
tra
de
agre
emen
tSe
p-1
7R
apes
eed
oil
An
no
un
ced
th
e p
rovi
sio
nal
imp
lem
enta
tio
n, f
rom
21
Sep
tem
ber
201
7, o
f th
e C
om
pre
hen
sive
Eco
no
mic
Tra
de
Ag
reem
ent
(CET
A),
w
hic
h e
nta
ils t
he
elim
inat
ion
of
the
EU's
tar
iffs
on
Can
adia
n r
apes
eed
oil
imp
ort
s.
Ma
jor
po
licy
de
velo
pm
en
ts
92 93FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2017
CO
UN
TRY
PRO
DU
CT
DA
TEPO
LIC
Y
CA
TEG
OR
Y/
INST
RU
MEN
TD
ESC
RIP
TIO
N
Ch
ina
Ag
ricu
ltu
ral P
olic
yM
ay-1
7A
ll cr
op
sPl
ann
ed in
tro
du
cin
g n
ew a
gri
cult
ura
l in
sura
nce
pro
gra
mm
es in
sel
ecte
d c
ou
nti
es t
o c
om
pen
sate
far
mer
s fo
r cr
op
loss
es r
esu
ltin
g
fro
m n
atu
ral d
isas
ters
.
Foo
d s
tan
dar
ds
May
-17
Edib
le o
ilmea
lsA
nn
ou
nce
d t
hat
a n
ew s
afet
y st
and
ard
fo
r ed
ible
oilm
eals
wo
uld
co
me
into
fo
rce
on
23
Jun
e 20
17.
Ag
ricu
ltu
ral P
olic
yM
ay-1
7A
rab
le c
rop
sIs
sued
gu
idel
ines
co
nce
rnin
g t
he
futu
re d
istr
ibu
tio
n o
f ar
able
lan
d a
s p
art
of
the
cou
ntr
y’s
nat
ion
al f
oo
d s
ecu
rity
str
ateg
y, w
ith
a
view
to
op
tim
ize
the
cou
ntr
y’s
agri
cult
ura
l pro
du
ctio
n p
atte
rn, w
hile
mak
ing
ag
ricu
ltu
ral s
up
po
rt p
rog
ram
mes
mo
re e
ffec
tive
.
Ch
ina/
Bra
zil
Bila
tera
l co
op
erat
ion
May
-17
Soyb
ean
sSe
t u
p a
Bra
zilia
n-C
hin
ese
inve
stm
ent
fun
d f
or
infr
astr
uct
ure
pro
ject
s, w
ith
a v
iew
to
allo
w C
hin
a to
inve
st in
Bra
zilia
n r
ailr
oad
, h
igh
way
an
d p
ort
ven
ture
s th
at w
ou
ld lo
wer
th
e co
st o
f sh
ipp
ing
raw
ag
ricu
ltu
ral p
rod
uct
s su
ch a
s so
ybea
ns
to C
hin
a.
Ch
ina/
Ind
on
esia
Bila
tera
l co
op
erat
ion
Jun
-17
Bio
die
sel
Co
nd
uct
ed b
ilate
ral t
alks
to
exp
lore
th
e p
oss
ibili
ty o
f i)
Ind
on
esia
ass
isti
ng
Ch
ina
in it
s ef
fort
s to
rai
se d
om
esti
c b
iod
iese
l co
nsu
mp
tio
n, a
nd
ii)
Ch
ina
inve
stin
g in
Ind
on
esia
’s d
ow
nst
ream
pal
m o
il p
roce
ssin
g s
ecto
r.
Ch
ina
Imp
ort
po
licy
Jun
-17
GM
rap
esee
d,
soyb
ean
Ren
ewed
imp
ort
ap
pro
vals
fo
r 14
GM
O c
rop
s (i
ncl
ud
ing
th
ree
rap
esee
d a
nd
fo
ur
soyb
ean
var
ieti
es)
and
ap
pro
ved
tw
o n
ew G
MO
cr
op
s (i
ncl
ud
ing
a n
ew s
oyb
ean
var
iety
), u
nd
er b
road
er e
ffo
rts
to p
rom
ote
eco
no
mic
an
d t
rad
e ti
es w
ith
th
e U
nit
ed S
tate
s.
Ag
ricu
ltu
ral P
olic
yJu
n-1
7So
ybea
ns
An
no
un
ced
an
incr
ease
in p
ub
lic o
utl
ays
for
farm
er s
ub
sid
y p
aym
ents
mea
nt
to e
nco
ura
ge
cro
p r
ota
tio
n, n
ota
bly
bet
wee
n m
aize
an
d s
oyb
ean
s.
Imp
ort
po
licy
Au
g-1
7So
ybea
n o
ilA
gre
ed t
o r
esu
me
imp
ort
s o
f so
ybea
n o
il fr
om
Arg
enti
na,
as
par
t o
f co
mp
reh
ensi
ve b
ilate
ral t
alks
on
bal
anci
ng
tra
de
bet
wee
n
the
two
co
un
trie
s.
Imp
ort
po
licy
Sep
-17
Veg
etab
le o
ilG
ran
ted
a t
wo
-yea
r tr
ansi
tio
nal
per
iod
– u
nti
l 30
Sep
tem
ber
201
9 –
for
the
imp
lem
enta
tio
n o
f n
ew f
oo
d im
po
rt r
egu
lati
on
s re
qu
irin
g im
po
rter
s o
f b
ulk
veg
etab
le o
ils t
o r
evie
w r
elev
ant
hea
lth
cer
tifi
cate
s an
d c
on
du
ct o
n-s
ite
insp
ecti
on
s o
f fo
reig
n
esta
blis
hm
ents
fro
m w
hic
h p
rod
uct
s ar
e so
urc
ed.
Pub
lic s
tock
po
licy
Sep
-17
Soyb
ean
sR
esu
med
sal
es o
f o
ld-c
rop
so
ybea
ns
fro
m s
tate
res
erve
s.
Ag
ricu
ltu
ral p
olic
ySe
p-1
7So
ybea
ns
Set
sub
sid
y p
aym
ents
gra
nte
d t
o s
oyb
ean
pro
du
cers
in H
eilo
ng
jian
g P
rovi
nce
fo
r th
e 20
16/1
7 se
aso
n a
t C
NY
118
.58
per
mu
(U
SD
267
per
ha)
.
Ch
ina/
Ukr
ain
eTr
ade
stan
dar
ds
Sep
-17
Sun
flo
wer
seed
ca
keA
gre
ed o
n s
anit
ary
and
bio
safe
ty p
roto
cols
reg
ula
tin
g im
po
rts
of
Ukr
ain
ian
su
nfl
ow
erse
ed c
ake
into
Ch
ina.
Ch
ina
Ag
ricu
ltu
ral p
olic
yO
ct-1
7M
aize
, so
ybea
ns
Low
ered
su
bsi
dy
pay
men
ts p
rovi
ded
to
mai
ze g
row
ers
in a
n e
ffo
rt t
o c
urb
nat
ion
al m
aize
pro
du
ctio
n a
nd
eve
ntu
ally
cu
t d
om
esti
c st
ock
s, s
imu
ltan
eou
sly
enco
ura
gin
g f
arm
ers
to p
lan
t al
tern
ativ
e cr
op
s, in
clu
din
g s
oyb
ean
s.
Pub
lic s
tock
po
licy
Oct
-17
Soyb
ean
s, m
aize
Susp
end
ed, f
rom
en
d O
cto
ber
201
7, p
ub
lic a
uct
ion
s o
f o
ld-c
rop
mai
ze a
nd
so
ybea
ns
fro
m s
tate
res
erve
s, w
ith
a v
iew
no
t to
in
terf
ere
wit
h t
he
mar
keti
ng
of
the
new
201
7/18
cro
p.
Euro
pea
n U
nio
nPe
stic
ide
reg
ula
tio
nM
ay-1
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eon
ico
tin
oid
-b
ased
in
sect
icid
es
Co
nsi
der
ed c
on
vert
ing
th
e EU
’s t
emp
ora
ry m
ora
tori
um
on
neo
nic
oti
no
id-b
ased
inse
ctic
ides
(w
hic
h u
sed
to
be
wid
ely
emp
loye
d in
ra
pes
eed
cu
ltiv
atio
n)
into
a p
erm
anen
t b
an.
Euro
pea
n U
nio
n/
Au
stra
liaFr
ee t
rad
e ag
reem
ent
May
-17
Rap
esee
dC
on
du
cted
a jo
int
sco
pin
g e
xerc
ise
on
a f
utu
re f
ree
trad
e ag
reem
ent
bet
wee
n A
ust
ralia
an
d t
he
EU, w
hic
h c
ou
ld f
acili
tate
exp
ort
s o
f A
ust
ralia
n r
apes
eed
to
th
e EU
.
Euro
pea
n U
nio
n
Sect
or
dev
elo
pm
ent
mea
sure
sJu
l-17
Soyb
ean
sLa
un
ched
an
EU
-wid
e in
itia
tive
pro
mo
tin
g t
he
pro
du
ctio
n o
f n
on
-GM
so
ybea
ns
and
oth
er le
gu
me
cro
ps
for
foo
d a
nd
fee
d. T
he
pro
gra
mm
e is
mea
nt
to c
on
trib
ute
to
th
e d
evel
op
men
t o
f m
ore
su
stai
nab
le a
nd
res
ilien
t ag
ricu
ltu
ral s
yste
ms,
wh
ile t
akin
g in
to
acco
un
t g
row
ing
dem
and
fo
r G
M-f
ree
foo
ds
and
po
ssib
ly c
urb
ing
th
e EU
's d
epen
den
ce o
n im
po
rted
so
ybea
ns.
Imp
ort
po
licy
(an
ti-
du
mp
ing
du
ties
)Se
p-1
7B
iod
iese
lLo
wer
ed, e
ffec
tive
19
Sep
tem
ber
201
7, t
he
EU's
an
ti-d
um
pin
g d
uti
es o
n b
iod
iese
l im
po
rts
fro
m A
rgen
tin
a fr
om
22.
0–25
.7 p
erce
nt
to 4
.5–8
.1 p
erce
nt.
Pest
icid
e re
gu
lati
on
Sep
-17
Her
bic
ide
'Gly
ph
osa
te'
Post
po
ned
th
e d
ecis
ion
on
th
e p
rop
ose
d 1
0-ye
ar r
enew
al o
f th
e lic
ense
fo
r g
lyp
ho
sate
-bas
ed h
erb
icid
es, w
hic
h a
re w
idel
y u
sed
in
oils
eed
cu
ltiv
atio
n.
Euro
pea
n U
nio
n/
Can
ada
Free
tra
de
agre
emen
tSe
p-1
7R
apes
eed
oil
An
no
un
ced
th
e p
rovi
sio
nal
imp
lem
enta
tio
n, f
rom
21
Sep
tem
ber
201
7, o
f th
e C
om
pre
hen
sive
Eco
no
mic
Tra
de
Ag
reem
ent
(CET
A),
w
hic
h e
nta
ils t
he
elim
inat
ion
of
the
EU's
tar
iffs
on
Can
adia
n r
apes
eed
oil
imp
ort
s.
92 93FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2017
OILC
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ased
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ent
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oci
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all-
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alm
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du
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to
su
pp
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alm
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cho
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r co
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use
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s fr
ee e
du
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on
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ent
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ay-1
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cou
ntr
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a b
id t
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elia
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on
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ort
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dib
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ils.
Mea
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s in
clu
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nti
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oil
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m p
lan
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cess
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ent
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e St
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ly w
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urd
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lies.
Ag
ricu
ltu
ral p
olic
yJu
n-1
7A
gri
cult
ura
l in
pu
t p
rice
sU
rged
pri
vate
co
mp
anie
s to
low
er t
he
pri
ces
of
pes
tici
des
, see
ds
and
oth
er a
gri
cult
ura
l in
pu
ts t
o s
up
po
rt p
ub
lic in
itia
tive
s ta
ken
to
ass
ist
farm
ers
affe
cted
by
low
cro
p p
rice
s.
Ag
ricu
ltu
ral p
olic
yJu
n-1
7K
har
if o
ilcro
ps
Rai
sed
th
e m
inim
um
su
pp
ort
pri
ces
for
Kh
arif
oilc
rop
s, w
ith
a v
iew
to
pro
tect
far
mer
s fr
om
fre
sh p
rice
dec
lines
an
d t
o p
reve
nt
a sh
ift
in p
lan
tin
gs
away
fro
m s
oyb
ean
s an
d o
ther
oils
eed
s to
co
mp
etin
g c
rop
s.
Foo
d s
tan
dar
ds
Jul-
17V
eget
able
oils
Invi
ted
pu
blic
co
mm
ents
on
pro
po
sed
reg
ula
tory
am
end
men
ts c
on
cern
ing
i) t
he
rem
ova
l of
test
req
uir
emen
ts f
or
ble
nd
ed e
dib
le
veg
etab
le o
ils, a
nd
ii)
pro
visi
on
s re
gu
lati
ng
th
e sa
le o
f h
ydro
gen
ated
veg
etab
le o
ils/f
ats.
Foo
d s
tan
dar
ds
Jul-
17O
ils a
nd
fat
sC
on
firm
ed t
hat
a r
evis
ed s
tan
dar
d f
or
edib
le o
ils a
nd
fat
s w
ou
ld c
om
e in
to f
orc
e o
n 1
Ju
ly 2
017,
incl
ud
ing
a r
edefi
nit
ion
of
inte
r-es
teri
fied
veg
etab
le f
at a
nd
new
ru
les
reg
ard
ing
th
e u
se o
f fo
od
gra
de
enzy
mes
in o
il re
fin
ing
pro
cess
es.
Foo
d s
tan
dar
ds
Jul-
17Fo
od
pro
du
ct
lab
els
Post
po
ned
to
30
Sep
tem
ber
201
7 th
e co
mp
lian
ce d
ate
for
man
dat
ory
dec
lara
tio
n o
f tr
ans-
fat
and
sat
ura
ted
fat
co
nte
nt
on
fo
od
p
rod
uct
lab
els,
wit
h a
vie
w t
o a
llow
man
ufa
ctu
rers
to
uti
lize
exis
tin
g s
tock
s o
f p
acka
gin
g m
ater
ial.
Pub
lic p
rocu
rem
ent
Au
g-1
7O
ilsee
ds,
pu
lses
An
no
un
ced
th
e la
un
ch o
f an
ele
ctro
nic
pla
tfo
rm f
or
cou
ntr
ywid
e p
rocu
rem
ent
of
oils
eed
s an
d p
uls
es, w
ith
a v
iew
to
hel
p g
row
ers
ob
tain
mo
re r
emu
ner
ativ
e p
rice
s, w
hile
als
o c
on
tain
ing
co
nsu
mer
pri
ces.
Imp
ort
po
licy
Au
g-1
7V
eget
able
oils
Rai
sed
imp
ort
du
ties
on
sel
ecte
d c
rud
e an
d r
efin
ed o
ils w
ith
a v
iew
to
pro
tect
loca
l far
mer
s an
d o
il p
roce
sso
rs f
rom
low
-pri
ced
im
po
rts
and
th
ereb
y en
cou
rag
e d
om
esti
c o
ilsee
d p
rod
uct
ion
an
d r
efin
ing
.
Pric
e su
pp
ort
Au
g-1
7O
ilsee
ds,
pu
lses
An
no
un
ced
th
e la
un
ch o
f a
nat
ion
wid
e sc
hem
e to
co
mp
ensa
te f
arm
ers
for
dis
tres
s sa
les
at p
rice
s b
elo
w t
he
offi
cial
min
imu
m
sup
po
rt p
rice
s. T
he
sch
eme
wo
uld
on
ly a
pp
ly t
o o
ilsee
ds
and
pu
lses
, wh
ere
ph
ysic
al p
rocu
rem
ent
by
pu
blic
en
titi
es t
end
s to
be
limit
ed.
Sect
or
dev
elo
pm
ent
mea
sure
sSe
p-1
7C
oco
nu
t p
alm
Gra
nte
d fi
nan
cial
su
pp
ort
to
30
pro
ject
s p
rom
oti
ng
dev
elo
pm
ent
of
the
coco
nu
t se
cto
r in
five
dif
fere
nt
stat
es, f
ocu
sin
g o
n
rese
arch
init
iati
ves
and
pro
ject
s o
n p
roce
ssin
g a
nd
pro
du
ct d
iver
sifi
cati
on
.
Sect
or
dev
elo
pm
ent
mea
sure
sSe
p-1
7C
oco
nu
t p
alm
An
no
un
ced
a 1
0-ye
ar p
lan
to
fo
ster
th
e d
evel
op
men
t o
f co
con
ut
pro
du
ctio
n in
th
e St
ate
of
Ker
ala,
an
d c
on
sid
ered
set
tin
g u
p a
co
mm
itte
e to
co
ord
inat
e co
con
ut-
rela
ted
act
ivit
ies
of
cen
tral
an
d s
tate
-lev
el a
gen
cies
.
GM
O p
olic
ySe
p-1
7G
M o
ilsee
ds
Post
po
ned
a d
ecis
ion
on
th
e co
mm
erci
al r
elea
se o
f G
M o
ilsee
ds,
no
tab
ly o
f a
loca
lly d
evel
op
ed m
ust
ard
see
d v
arie
ty, s
tati
ng
th
at
mo
re t
ime
was
req
uir
ed t
o e
xam
ine
new
ly r
elea
sed
exp
ert
stu
die
s o
n t
he
sub
ject
.
Pub
lic p
rocu
rem
ent
Oct
-17
Gro
un
dn
uts
, so
ybea
ns
Init
iate
d p
ub
lic p
rocu
rem
ent
of
i) g
rou
nd
nu
ts in
th
e St
ate
of
Gu
jara
t, a
nd
ii)
soyb
ean
s an
d g
rou
nd
nu
ts in
th
e St
ate
of
Raj
asth
an.
Ind
on
esia
Pub
lic p
rocu
rem
ent
May
-17
Soyb
ean
sR
elea
sed
pu
blic
fu
nd
s fo
r th
e p
rocu
rem
ent
– o
n e
ith
er t
he
do
mes
tic
or
imp
ort
mar
ket
– o
f ri
ce, s
oyb
ean
s an
d s
ug
ar, w
ith
th
e ai
m
of
stab
ilizi
ng
do
mes
tic
con
sum
er p
rice
s.
Envi
ron
men
tal p
olic
yM
ay-1
7 /
July
-17
Oil
pal
mA
pp
rove
d a
tw
o-y
ear
exte
nsi
on
(u
nti
l May
201
9) o
f a
mo
rato
riu
m o
n is
suin
g n
ew li
cen
ses
for
the
use
of
lan
d d
esig
nat
ed a
s p
rim
ary
fore
st a
nd
pea
tlan
d, t
her
eby
curb
ing
pla
nta
tio
n d
evel
op
men
t in
th
e o
il p
alm
wo
od
an
d p
aper
sec
tors
. Su
bse
qu
entl
y p
rop
ose
d t
o t
urn
th
e te
mp
ora
ry m
ora
tori
um
into
a p
erm
anen
t b
an.
Exp
ort
po
licy
Jun
e-17
to
O
ct-1
7Pa
lm o
ilLe
ft in
pla
ce t
he
cou
ntr
y's
slid
ing
exp
ort
tax
reg
ime
for
pal
m o
il, w
hic
h is
aim
ed a
t p
rote
ctin
g t
he
inte
rest
s o
f d
om
esti
c p
rod
uce
rs
and
co
nsu
mer
s.
Ma
jor
po
licy
de
velo
pm
en
ts
94 95FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2017
CO
UN
TRY
PRO
DU
CT
DA
TEPO
LIC
Y
CA
TEG
OR
Y/
INST
RU
MEN
TD
ESC
RIP
TIO
N
Ind
on
esia
/Ch
ina
Bila
tera
l co
op
erat
ion
Jun
-17
Bio
die
sel
Co
nd
uct
ed b
ilate
ral t
alks
to
exp
lore
th
e p
oss
ibili
ty o
f i)
Ind
on
esia
ass
isti
ng
Ch
ina
in it
s ef
fort
s to
rai
se d
om
esti
c b
iod
iese
l co
nsu
mp
tio
n, a
nd
ii)
Ch
ina
inve
stin
g in
Ind
on
esia
’s d
ow
nst
ream
pal
m o
il p
roce
ssin
g s
ecto
r.
Ind
on
esia
/Nig
eria
Bila
tera
l co
op
erat
ion
Jun
-17
Oil
pal
mJo
intl
y ex
plo
red
po
ssib
iliti
es f
or
Ind
on
esia
to
co
llab
ora
te in
th
e d
evel
op
men
t o
f N
iger
ia’s
pal
m o
il in
du
stry
. Fu
rth
erm
ore
, In
do
nes
ia e
nco
ura
ged
Nig
eria
to
join
th
e C
ou
nci
l of
Palm
Oil
Pro
du
cin
g C
ou
ntr
ies,
a b
od
y se
t u
p b
y In
do
nes
ia a
nd
Mal
aysi
a to
p
rom
ote
pri
ce s
tab
iliza
tio
n a
nd
su
stai
nab
le p
alm
oil
pro
du
ctio
n.
Bila
tera
l co
op
erat
ion
Jul-
17Pa
lm o
ilIn
itia
ted
tal
ks w
ith
Nig
eria
n c
ou
nte
rpar
ts t
o r
elax
res
tric
tio
ns
on
imp
ort
s o
f In
do
nes
ian
cru
de
pal
m o
il in
to N
iger
ia.
Ind
on
esia
Exp
ort
pro
mo
tio
nJu
l-17
Palm
oil
Pro
mo
ted
bu
sin
ess
bet
wee
n In
do
nes
ia a
nd
Vie
t N
am, a
imin
g a
t, in
ter
alia
, in
crea
sed
sh
ipm
ents
of
Ind
on
esia
n p
alm
oil
to t
he
Vie
tnam
ese
mar
ket.
Ind
on
esia
/M
alay
sia
Bila
tera
l co
op
erat
ion
Jul-
17Pa
lm o
ilA
nn
ou
nce
d t
hat
Mal
aysi
a an
d In
do
nes
ia w
ou
ld c
on
sid
er a
join
t ch
alle
ng
e at
WTO
leve
l of
any
mea
sure
th
e EU
mig
ht
take
to
re
stri
ct p
alm
oil
imp
ort
s o
n s
ust
ain
abili
ty g
rou
nd
s.
Ind
on
esia
Sect
or
dev
elo
pm
ent
mea
sure
sA
ug
-17
Oil
pal
mR
elea
sed
a lo
ng
-ter
m n
atio
nw
ide
oil
pal
m r
epla
nti
ng
pla
n in
volv
ing
up
to
4.7
mill
ion
ha,
wit
h a
vie
w t
o b
oo
st p
rod
uct
ivit
y in
th
e se
cto
r.
Ind
on
esia
/M
alay
sia
Bila
tera
l co
op
erat
ion
Au
g-1
7Pa
lm o
ilA
gre
ed t
o jo
intl
y ex
plo
re t
he
po
ssib
ility
of
i) s
up
ply
ing
Ch
ina,
Ind
ia a
nd
oth
er c
ou
ntr
ies
wit
h p
alm
oil
for
thei
r n
asce
nt
bio
die
sel
ind
ust
ries
, an
d ii
) co
nd
uct
ing
join
t ca
mp
aig
ns
in k
ey im
po
rt m
arke
ts t
o p
ub
liciz
e p
alm
oil’
s en
viro
nm
enta
l cre
den
tial
s.
Ind
on
esia
/Ru
ssia
n
Fed
erat
ion
Bila
tera
l tra
de
arra
ng
emen
tsA
ug
-17
Palm
oil,
co
pra
Info
rmed
th
at a
pre
limin
ary
dea
l to
bar
ter
Ru
ssia
n m
ilita
ry je
ts f
or
Ind
on
esia
n c
om
mo
dit
ies
– in
clu
din
g p
alm
oil
and
co
pra
– h
ad
bee
n s
ign
ed b
etw
een
th
e co
un
trie
s' s
tate
tra
din
g c
om
pan
ies.
Ind
on
esia
/U
zbek
ista
nB
ilate
ral c
oo
per
atio
nSe
p-1
7C
oco
nu
t, p
alm
o
il, s
oyb
ean
sA
gre
ed t
o s
tren
gth
en b
ilate
ral c
oo
per
atio
n in
th
e ag
ricu
ltu
re a
nd
fish
erie
s se
cto
rs. R
epo
rted
ly, I
nd
on
esia
vie
wed
Uzb
ekis
tan
as
a p
ote
nti
al e
xpo
rt m
arke
t fo
r p
alm
oil
and
co
con
ut,
wh
ile U
zbek
ista
n w
as in
tere
sted
in In
do
nes
ia’s
exp
erti
se in
so
ybea
n c
ult
ivat
ion
.
Ind
on
esia
Sect
or
dev
elo
pm
ent
mea
sure
sO
ct-1
7O
il p
alm
Lau
nch
ed a
n o
il p
alm
rej
uve
nat
ion
sch
eme
for
smal
l oil
pal
m g
row
ers,
in a
bid
to
imp
rove
yie
lds
in s
mal
lho
lder
pla
nta
tio
ns.
Isla
mic
Rep
ub
lic
of
Iran
Sect
or
dev
elo
pm
ent
mea
sure
sJu
n-1
7O
ilsee
ds,
so
ybea
ns
Lau
nch
ed a
tw
o-y
ear
pro
ject
on
th
e p
rom
oti
on
of
sust
ain
able
oils
eed
pro
du
ctio
n, w
ith
par
ticu
lar
atte
nti
on
giv
en t
o t
he
soyb
ean
va
lue
chai
n.
Jam
aica
Bio
fuel
po
licy
Jun
-17
Bio
die
sel
Sup
po
rted
th
e d
evel
op
men
t an
d c
om
mer
cial
lau
nch
of
cast
or
oil-
bas
ed b
iod
iese
l, w
ith
a v
iew
to
cu
t th
e co
un
try’
s en
erg
y im
po
rt
bill
an
d c
on
trib
ute
to
th
e re
du
ctio
n o
f G
HG
em
issi
on
s.
Jap
anFe
ed s
tan
dar
ds
May
-17
Oilm
eals
Allo
wed
th
e m
ixin
g o
f se
lect
ed o
ilmea
ls w
ith
fee
d m
aize
in t
he
pro
du
ctio
n o
f co
mp
ou
nd
fee
d.
Mal
awi
Tax
po
licy
Sep
-17
Veg
etab
le a
nd
an
imal
oils
/fat
sEx
emp
ted
, eff
ecti
ve 1
Ju
ly 2
017,
veg
etab
le a
nd
an
imal
oils
/fat
s an
d t
hei
r d
eriv
ed p
rod
uct
s fr
om
pay
ing
val
ue-
add
ed t
ax, w
ith
a
view
to
hel
p t
he
ind
igen
ou
s ed
ible
oil
ind
ust
ry g
row
an
d d
om
esti
c o
ilsee
d p
rod
uct
ion
exp
and
.
Mal
aysi
a
Trad
e st
and
ard
sM
ay-1
7Pa
lm o
ilC
on
sid
ered
rev
isin
g t
he
pri
nci
ple
s an
d c
rite
ria
for
MSP
O, t
he
go
vern
men
t-b
acke
d s
ust
ain
abili
ty c
erti
fica
tio
n s
chem
e fo
r o
il p
alm
, w
ith
a v
iew
to
mak
e it
mo
re c
om
pat
ible
wit
h in
tern
atio
nal
sta
nd
ard
s.
Exp
ort
pro
mo
tio
nM
ay-1
7Pa
lm o
ilSi
gn
ed a
Mem
ora
nd
um
of
Un
der
stan
din
g w
ith
Ind
ian
go
vern
men
t o
ffici
als,
aim
ed a
t h
elp
ing
rai
se t
he
pre
sen
ce o
f M
alay
sian
p
alm
oil
in t
he
Ind
ian
mar
ket.
Exp
ort
po
licy
Jun
e-17
to
O
ct-1
7Pa
lm o
ilLe
ft in
pla
ce t
he
cou
ntr
y's
slid
ing
exp
ort
tax
reg
ime
for
pal
m o
il, w
hic
h is
aim
ed a
t p
rote
ctin
g t
he
inte
rest
s o
f d
om
esti
c p
rod
uce
rs
and
co
nsu
mer
s.
Mal
aysi
a/In
do
nes
iaB
ilate
ral c
oo
per
atio
nJu
l-17
Palm
oil
An
no
un
ced
th
at M
alay
sia
and
Ind
on
esia
wo
uld
co
nsi
der
a jo
int
chal
len
ge
at W
TO le
vel o
f an
y m
easu
re t
he
EU m
igh
t ta
ke t
o
rest
rict
pal
m o
il im
po
rts
on
su
stai
nab
ility
gro
un
ds.
Mal
aysi
a/Ph
ilip
pin
esB
ilate
ral t
rad
e ar
ran
gem
ents
Jul-
17Pa
lm o
il,
bio
die
sel
Co
nd
uct
ed b
ilate
ral t
alks
wit
h t
he
Phili
pp
ines
, ag
reei
ng
to
tar
get
a 5
0 p
erce
nt
incr
ease
in M
alay
sian
sh
ipm
ents
of
pal
m o
il an
d
pal
m o
il-b
ased
pro
du
cts
(in
clu
din
g b
iod
iese
l) t
o t
he
Phili
pp
ines
ove
r th
e n
ext
thre
e ye
ars.
Mal
aysi
aTr
ade
stan
dar
ds
Au
g-1
7Pa
lm o
ilC
on
firm
ed t
hat
cer
tifi
cati
on
th
rou
gh
th
e M
alay
sian
Su
stai
nab
le P
alm
Oil
(MSP
O)
sch
eme
wo
uld
bec
om
e m
and
ato
ry f
or
all
pal
m o
il g
row
ers
by
the
end
of
2019
, an
d a
gre
ed t
o s
ub
sid
ize
aud
it c
ost
s so
as
to h
elp
pal
m o
il p
rod
uce
rs c
om
ply
wit
h t
he
new
st
and
ard
.
94 95FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2017
OILC
RO
PS
CO
UN
TRY
PRO
DU
CT
DA
TEPO
LIC
Y
CA
TEG
OR
Y/
INST
RU
MEN
TD
ESC
RIP
TIO
N
Mal
aysi
a/In
do
nes
iaB
ilate
ral c
oo
per
atio
nA
ug
-17
Palm
oil
Ag
reed
to
join
tly
exp
lore
th
e p
oss
ibili
ty o
f i)
su
pp
lyin
g C
hin
a, In
dia
an
d o
ther
co
un
trie
s w
ith
pal
m o
il fo
r th
eir
nas
cen
t b
iod
iese
l in
du
stri
es, a
nd
ii)
con
du
ctin
g jo
int
cam
pai
gn
s in
key
imp
ort
mar
kets
to
pu
blic
ize
pal
m o
il’s
envi
ron
men
tal c
red
enti
als.
Mal
aysi
a/Ph
ilip
pin
esB
ilate
ral c
oo
per
atio
nSe
p-1
7O
il p
alm
Co
nd
uct
ed b
ilate
ral t
alks
wit
h t
he
Phili
pp
ines
to
exa
min
e th
e p
oss
ibili
ty o
f se
ttin
g u
p jo
int
ven
ture
s fo
r o
il p
alm
pla
nta
tio
ns
in t
he
Phili
pp
ines
, wit
h a
vie
w t
o c
ater
to
th
e co
un
try’
s ri
sin
g d
eman
d f
or
veg
etab
le o
il fo
r b
oth
fo
od
an
d in
du
stri
al u
ses.
Mex
ico
Ag
ricu
ltu
ral P
olic
yM
ay-1
7A
gri
cult
ura
l cr
op
s, o
ilsee
ds
An
no
un
ced
cu
ts in
th
e am
ou
nt
of
sub
sid
ies
pro
vid
ed t
o f
arm
ers
in 2
017,
incl
ud
ing
red
uce
d p
aym
ents
un
der
th
e co
un
try'
s sp
ecifi
c su
pp
ort
pro
gra
mm
e fo
r o
ilsee
ds.
Mo
rocc
oSe
cto
r d
evel
op
men
t m
easu
res
May
-17
Oliv
e o
ilB
acke
d a
mu
ltila
tera
l tec
hn
ical
co
op
erat
ion
pro
ject
aim
ed a
t st
ren
gth
enin
g M
oro
cco
's o
live
oil
sect
or,
in p
arti
cula
r b
y se
ttin
g u
p
inte
r-p
rofe
ssio
nal
org
aniz
atio
ns
and
pro
mo
tin
g p
rod
uct
ion
of
hig
h-q
ual
ity
oliv
e o
il.
Nig
eria
Sect
or
dev
elo
pm
ent
mea
sure
sJu
n-1
7O
il p
alm
Dis
trib
ute
d s
eed
ling
s o
f a
hig
h-y
ield
oil
pal
m v
arie
ty t
o f
arm
er a
sso
ciat
ion
s an
d c
oo
per
ativ
es, a
s p
art
of
effo
rts
to b
oo
st t
he
cou
ntr
y's
pro
du
ctio
n o
f ra
w m
ater
ials
, div
ersi
fy a
gri
cult
ura
l pro
du
ctio
n, a
nd
low
er r
elia
nce
on
co
mm
od
ity
imp
ort
s.
Nig
eria
/Ind
on
esia
Bila
tera
l co
op
erat
ion
Jun
-17
Oil
pal
mJo
intl
y ex
plo
red
po
ssib
iliti
es f
or
Ind
on
esia
to
co
llab
ora
te in
th
e d
evel
op
men
t o
f N
iger
ia’s
pal
m o
il in
du
stry
. Nig
eria
was
als
o
enco
ura
ged
to
join
th
e C
ou
nci
l of
Palm
Oil
Pro
du
cin
g C
ou
ntr
ies,
a b
od
y se
t u
p b
y In
do
nes
ia a
nd
Mal
aysi
a to
pro
mo
te p
rice
st
abili
zati
on
an
d s
ust
ain
able
pal
m o
il p
rod
uct
ion
.
Bila
tera
l co
op
erat
ion
Jul-
17Pa
lm o
ilIn
itia
ted
tal
ks w
ith
Ind
on
esia
n c
ou
nte
rpar
ts t
o r
elax
res
tric
tio
ns
on
imp
ort
s o
f In
do
nes
ian
cru
de
pal
m o
il in
to N
iger
ia.
No
rway
Bio
fuel
po
licy
Jun
-17
Bio
die
sel
Rel
ease
d a
par
liam
enta
ry r
eso
luti
on
rec
om
men
din
g t
o e
nd
– o
n e
nvi
ron
men
tal g
rou
nd
s –
pu
blic
pro
cure
men
t o
f p
alm
oil-
bas
ed
bio
die
sel,
wh
ile p
rom
oti
ng
th
e u
se o
f su
stai
nab
ly p
rod
uce
d, a
dva
nce
d b
iofu
els.
Peru
Lan
d r
igh
ts p
olic
yM
ay-1
7O
il p
alm
Co
mm
itte
d t
o c
on
sult
ind
igen
ou
s p
eop
le p
rio
r to
ap
pro
vin
g o
il p
alm
dev
elo
pm
ent
con
cess
ion
s th
at w
ou
ld a
ffec
t th
em.
Phili
pp
ines
/M
alay
sia
Bila
tera
l tra
de
arra
ng
emen
tsJu
l-17
Palm
oil,
b
iod
iese
lC
on
du
cted
bila
tera
l tal
ks w
ith
Mal
aysi
a, a
gre
ein
g t
o t
arg
et a
50
per
cen
t in
crea
se in
Mal
aysi
an s
hip
men
ts o
f p
alm
oil
and
pal
m o
il-b
ased
pro
du
cts
(in
clu
din
g b
iod
iese
l) t
o t
he
Phili
pp
ines
ove
r th
e n
ext
thre
e ye
ars.
Bila
tera
l co
op
erat
ion
Sep
-17
Oil
pal
mC
on
du
cted
bila
tera
l tal
ks w
ith
Mal
aysi
a to
exa
min
e th
e p
oss
ibili
ty o
f se
ttin
g u
p jo
int
ven
ture
s fo
r o
il p
alm
pla
nta
tio
ns
in t
he
Phili
pp
ines
, wit
h a
vie
w t
o c
ater
to
th
e co
un
try’
s ri
sin
g d
eman
d f
or
veg
etab
le o
il fo
r b
oth
fo
od
an
d in
du
stri
al u
ses.
Phili
pp
ines
Sect
or
dev
elo
pm
ent
mea
sure
sSe
p-1
7C
oco
nu
t p
alm
Ren
ewed
pu
blic
fu
nd
ing
fo
r th
e co
un
try'
s C
oco
nu
t A
uth
ori
ty in
cal
end
ar y
ear
2018
, wit
h t
he
bu
lk o
f fu
nd
s ea
rmar
ked
fo
r co
un
tryw
ide
coco
nu
t p
alm
rep
lan
tin
g p
rog
ram
mes
.
Ru
ssia
n
Fed
erat
ion
/In
do
nes
ia
Bila
tera
l tra
de
arra
ng
emen
tsA
ug
-17
Palm
oil,
co
pra
Info
rmed
th
at a
pre
limin
ary
dea
l to
bar
ter
Ru
ssia
n m
ilita
ry je
ts f
or
Ind
on
esia
n c
om
mo
dit
ies
– in
clu
din
g p
alm
oil
and
co
pra
– h
ad
bee
n s
ign
ed b
etw
een
th
e co
un
trie
s' s
tate
tra
din
g c
om
pan
ies.
Sri L
anka
Imp
ort
po
licy
May
-17
Co
con
ut
pro
du
cts
Co
nsi
der
ed li
ber
aliz
ing
th
e im
po
rtat
ion
of
hu
sked
co
con
ut
and
fre
sh c
oco
nu
t ke
rnel
, giv
en t
he
pre
vaili
ng
sh
ort
age
of
coco
nu
t in
th
e d
om
esti
c m
arke
t.
Mar
ket
reg
ula
tio
nSe
p-1
7C
oco
nu
t p
rod
uct
sIn
form
ed t
hat
pu
blic
sto
cks
of
coco
nu
t w
ou
ld b
e re
leas
ed in
to t
he
mar
ket
in a
n e
ffo
rt t
o c
hec
k fr
esh
su
rges
in d
om
esti
c p
rice
s.
Sect
or
dev
elo
pm
ent
mea
sure
sSe
p-1
7C
oco
nu
t p
alm
Rel
ease
d f
un
ds
for
the
dev
elo
pm
ent
of
coco
nu
t p
rod
uct
ion
in t
he
cou
ntr
y’s
No
rth
ern
an
d E
aste
rn P
rovi
nce
s, w
ith
a f
ocu
s o
n
i) id
enti
fyin
g s
uit
able
lan
d, i
i) s
etti
ng
up
nu
rser
ies
and
dis
trib
uti
ng
see
dlin
gs,
iii)
cre
atin
g m
od
el c
oco
nu
t g
ard
ens,
an
d iv
) d
evel
op
ing
loca
l in
fras
tru
ctu
re.
Thai
lan
d
Mar
ket
reg
ula
tio
n /
bio
fuel
po
licy
May
-17
Bio
die
sel
Rei
nst
ated
th
e co
un
try'
s m
and
ato
ry b
iod
iese
l ble
nd
ing
rat
e o
f 7
per
cen
t, in
a b
id t
o r
edu
ce b
urd
enso
me
do
mes
tic
pal
m o
il su
pp
lies.
Mar
ket
reg
ula
tio
n /
bio
fuel
po
licy
Jun
-17
Bio
die
sel
Urg
ed r
etai
lers
of
pal
m o
il-b
ased
bio
die
sel t
o r
aise
th
eir
sto
cks
of
the
fuel
by
40 p
erce
nt
so a
s to
hel
p a
bso
rb e
xces
s p
alm
oil
sup
plie
s an
d le
nd
su
pp
ort
to
do
mes
tic
pal
m o
il p
rice
s.
Turk
ey
Imp
ort
po
licy
May
-17
Sun
flo
wer
oil
and
mea
lR
ead
mit
ted
th
e R
uss
ian
Fed
erat
ion
to
Tu
rkey
's li
st o
f ac
cep
ted
imp
ort
tax
-fre
e o
rig
ins
for
agri
cult
ura
l pro
du
cts,
incl
ud
ing
su
nfl
ow
er o
il an
d s
un
flo
wer
mea
l.
GM
O p
olic
yA
ug
-17
Soyb
ean
sA
pp
rove
d t
he
imp
ort
atio
n o
f th
ree
gen
etic
ally
mo
difi
ed s
oyb
ean
var
ieti
es a
nd
th
eir
pro
du
cts
for
do
mes
tic
feed
use
.
Foo
d s
tan
dar
ds
Oct
-17
Veg
etab
le o
ilsPo
stp
on
ed im
ple
men
tati
on
of
new
lab
ellin
g r
ule
s fo
r se
lect
ed a
gri
cult
ura
l co
mm
od
itie
s, in
clu
din
g v
eget
able
oils
, to
31
Dec
emb
er
2017
.
Imp
ort
po
licy
Oct
-17
Sun
flo
wer
oil
and
mea
lIn
tro
du
ced
no
n-t
arif
f m
easu
res
app
lyin
g t
o t
he
imp
ort
atio
n o
f se
lect
ed a
gri
cult
ura
l co
mm
od
itie
s (i
ncl
ud
ing
su
nfl
ow
er o
il an
d
mea
l) f
rom
th
e R
uss
ian
Fed
erat
ion
.
Ma
jor
po
licy
de
velo
pm
en
ts
96 97FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2017
CO
UN
TRY
PRO
DU
CT
DA
TEPO
LIC
Y
CA
TEG
OR
Y/
INST
RU
MEN
TD
ESC
RIP
TIO
N
Ukr
ain
ePr
ice
con
tro
lJu
n-1
7Su
nfl
ow
er o
il,
bu
tter
Dis
con
tin
ued
, fro
m 1
Ju
ly 2
017,
sta
te c
on
tro
ls o
f fo
od
pri
ces
(in
clu
din
g p
rice
s o
f su
nfl
ow
er o
il an
d b
utt
er)
that
wer
e m
ean
t to
ch
eck
rise
s in
loca
l ret
ail p
rice
s.
Ukr
ain
e/C
hin
aTr
ade
stan
dar
ds
Sep
-17
Sun
flo
wer
seed
ca
keA
gre
ed o
n s
anit
ary
and
bio
safe
ty p
roto
cols
reg
ula
tin
g im
po
rts
of
Ukr
ain
ian
su
nfl
ow
erse
ed c
ake
into
Ch
ina.
Un
ited
Ara
b
Emir
ates
Bio
fuel
po
licy
Sep
-17
Bio
die
sel
Lau
nch
ed a
bio
die
sel b
len
d d
esti
ned
fo
r th
e co
un
try’
s co
mm
erci
al a
nd
ind
ust
rial
seg
men
t, in
a b
id t
o h
elp
red
uce
th
e co
un
try’
s G
HG
em
issi
on
s. T
he
fuel
co
nta
ins
5 p
erce
nt
bio
die
sel p
rod
uce
d f
rom
veg
etab
le o
il, u
sed
co
oki
ng
oil
or
anim
al f
at.
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
Bio
fuel
po
licy
Sep
-17
Bio
die
sel
Pub
lish
ed a
lon
g-t
erm
str
ateg
y fo
r ra
isin
g t
he
sup
ply
an
d s
ust
ain
abili
ty o
f re
new
able
tra
nsp
ort
fu
els
in t
he
cou
ntr
y, w
ith
a v
iew
to
low
er t
he
GH
G in
ten
sity
of
tran
spo
rt f
uel
s, w
hile
pro
vid
ing
a s
tab
le p
olic
y en
viro
nm
ent
for
inve
stm
ents
into
ren
ewab
le lo
w-
carb
on
fu
els.
Un
ited
Sta
tes
Bio
fuel
po
licy
Jun
-17
Bio
die
sel
An
no
un
ced
man
dat
ory
5 p
erce
nt
bio
die
sel b
len
ds
in h
om
e h
eati
ng
oil
in N
ew Y
ork
Cit
y an
d d
ow
nst
ate
New
Yo
rk c
ou
nti
es.
Bio
fuel
po
licy
Jul-
17B
iofu
els
Pub
lish
ed p
rop
osa
ls f
or
man
dat
ory
co
nsu
mp
tio
n o
f to
tal,
con
ven
tio
nal
an
d a
dva
nce
d r
enew
able
fu
els
in 2
018,
as
wel
l as
bio
mas
s-b
ased
die
sel i
n 2
019.
Bio
fuel
po
licy
Jul-
17B
iod
iese
lR
elea
sed
a U
S co
urt
ru
le e
stab
lish
ing
th
at t
he
met
ho
do
log
y u
sed
by
the
cou
ntr
y's
Envi
ron
men
tal P
rote
ctio
n A
gen
cy t
o ju
stif
y p
ast
red
uct
ion
s in
bio
fuel
co
nsu
mp
tio
n m
and
ates
was
inco
rrec
t.Im
po
rt p
olic
y (c
ou
nte
rvai
ling
d
uti
es)
Au
g-1
7B
iod
iese
lIn
tro
du
ced
pre
limin
ary
cou
nte
rvai
ling
du
ties
on
imp
ort
s o
f b
iod
iese
l fro
m A
rgen
tin
a an
d In
do
nes
ia, c
laim
ing
th
at A
rgen
tin
a an
d In
do
nes
ia r
ecei
ved
su
bsi
die
s o
f, r
esp
ecti
vely
, 50–
64 p
erce
nt
and
41–
68 p
erce
nt.
Fin
al d
uty
det
erm
inat
ion
s w
ou
ld b
e d
ue
on
7
No
vem
ber
201
7.
Bio
fuel
po
licy
Au
g-1
7B
iod
iese
lA
nn
ou
nce
d t
hat
, in
th
e st
ate
of
Min
nes
ota
, th
e m
and
ato
ry b
iod
iese
l ble
nd
ing
rat
e w
ou
ld b
e ra
ised
fro
m 1
0 to
20
per
cen
t in
May
20
18.
Hea
lth
po
licy
Au
g-1
7So
ybea
n o
ilA
llow
ed f
oo
d m
anu
fact
ure
rs a
nd
res
tau
ran
ts t
o m
ake
qu
alifi
ed h
ealt
h c
laim
s lin
kin
g s
oyb
ean
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con
sum
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on
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edu
ced
ris
k o
f co
ron
ary
hea
rt d
isea
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e re
gu
lati
on
Sep
-17
Her
bic
ide
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on
sid
ered
res
tric
tin
g t
he
use
of
dic
amb
a-b
ased
her
bic
ides
, wh
ich
are
ext
ensi
vely
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d in
so
ybea
n c
ult
ivat
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on
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erat
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me
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po
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le d
amag
e to
cro
ps
no
t re
sist
ant
to t
he
chem
ical
.
Bio
fuel
po
licy
Sep
-17
/ O
ct-1
7B
iod
iese
lC
on
sid
ered
low
erin
g t
he
man
dat
ory
ren
ewab
le f
uel
co
nsu
mp
tio
n t
arg
ets
for
2018
–201
9 p
rop
ose
d in
Ju
ly 2
017,
on
co
nce
rns
that
th
e o
rig
inal
ly p
rop
ose
d t
arg
ets
cou
ld le
ad t
o in
adeq
uat
e d
om
esti
c su
pp
lies
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fuel
to
co
nsu
mer
s. In
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ob
er 2
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er
mee
tin
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esis
tan
ce f
rom
law
mak
ers,
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e in
itia
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was
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and
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ort
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licy
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un
terv
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relim
inar
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un
terv
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uti
es im
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ug
ust
201
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nti
-du
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ing
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ort
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iese
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rgen
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laim
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at A
rgen
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d In
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old
th
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erch
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ited
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gin
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vely
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anu
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zbek
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n/
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on
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tera
l co
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erat
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-17
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pal
m
oil,
so
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reed
to
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then
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agri
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d fi
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ors
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do
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zbek
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xper
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ltiv
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coco
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stry
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bia
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ent
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lm o
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nd
s to
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cal p
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oil
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ture
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p r
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ce t
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dep
end
ence
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imp
ort
s o
f cr
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ent
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l-17
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eed
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l oils
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, esp
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ula
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ug
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rice
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r so
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ns
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iver
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o t
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ed G
rain
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keti
ng
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ard
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ove
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e p
reva
ilin
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arke
t p
rice
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a b
id t
o
stim
ula
te d
om
esti
c so
ybea
n p
rod
uct
ion
an
d r
edu
ce t
he
cou
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ence
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ort
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dib
le o
il.Im
po
rt p
olic
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p-1
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ns
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po
rary
ban
on
so
ybea
n im
po
rts,
in a
n e
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rt t
o e
nsu
re a
deq
uat
e su
pp
lies
of
coo
kin
g o
il in
th
e co
un
try.
Glo
bal
WTO
/FA
O C
od
ex
Alim
enta
riu
s C
om
mis
sio
nJu
l-17
Fish
oil
Issu
ed a
det
aile
d s
tan
dar
d f
or
fish
oil
inte
nd
ed f
or
hu
man
co
nsu
mp
tio
n, i
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ud
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visi
on
s fo
r d
iffe
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sh o
ils f
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eir
farm
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ou
nte
rpar
ts.
* A d
etai
led
desc
riptio
n of
maj
or p
olic
y de
velo
pmen
ts f
rom
Jan
uary
201
1 on
war
ds is
ava
ilabl
e at
htt
p://w
ww
.fao
.org
/eco
nom
ic/e
st/e
st-c
omm
oditi
es/c
omm
odity
-pol
icy-
arch
ive/
en/?
grou
pAN
Dco
mm
odity
=O
ilsee
ds,%
20oi
ls%
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d%20
mea
ls.
Statistica
l ap
pe
nd
ix
116 117FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2017
APPENDIX TABLE 10: TOTAL OILCROPS STATISTICS (million tonnes)
13/14-15/16
average2016/17 2017/18
13/14-15/16 average
2016/17 2017/1813/14-15/16
average2016/17 2017/18
estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast
ASIA 130.5 135.0 136.9 111.1 131.7 136.8 3.3 3.9 3.4China 58.7 58.6 61.2 82.5 98.1 100.5 1.1 1.0 1.0 of which Taiwan Prov. 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.5 2.6 2.7 - - -India 34.7 38.9 35.9 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.0Indonesia 11.2 11.4 12.3 2.5 2.8 3.0 0.1 0.1 0.1Iran, Islamic Republic of 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.3 2.2 2.5 0.1 0.1 0.1Japan 0.3 0.3 0.3 5.8 6.1 6.2 - - -Korea, Republic.of 0.2 0.1 0.2 1.6 1.5 1.7 - - -Malaysia 4.8 5.0 5.2 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Pakistan 4.9 4.3 4.9 1.8 2.9 3.2 - - -Thailand 0.8 1.1 1.2 2.4 2.8 3.3 - - -Turkey 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.0 3.3 3.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
AFRICA 17.9 18.0 18.5 3.8 4.9 4.9 0.7 0.7 0.7Nigeria 5.1 5.0 5.0 - - 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
CENTRAL AMERICA 1.7 2.0 1.9 6.5 6.6 6.7 0.2 0.2 0.2Mexico 1.3 1.5 1.4 5.7 5.9 5.9 - - -
SOUTH AMERICA 174.7 196.2 188.8 2.3 3.8 4.2 69.6 81.3 83.2Argentina 61.9 61.1 60.6 0.2 1.6 1.6 10.4 8.1 9.7Brazil 96.1 117.1 110.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 50.8 63.9 64.4Paraguay 9.4 10.6 10.1 - - - 5.0 6.0 5.7Uruguay 3.3 3.6 3.4 - - - 3.0 3.1 3.3
NORTH AMERICA 136.1 154.8 162.0 3.0 2.3 2.3 65.5 76.6 80.3Canada 25.2 27.3 29.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 14.4 16.4 18.0United States of America 110.9 127.5 132.8 2.4 1.7 1.7 51.1 60.2 62.3
EUROPE 66.5 70.6 72.9 21.3 23.8 22.2 6.1 6.9 6.9European Union 33.7 31.7 34.9 18.5 21.1 19.6 1.1 1.0 1.0Russian Federation 13.4 16.0 16.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 0.5 1.0 1.0Ukraine 17.0 20.7 19.4 - - - 3.9 4.4 4.3
OCEANIA 4.9 6.0 4.7 - - - 2.8 3.7 2.4Australia 4.5 5.6 4.2 - - - 2.7 3.6 2.3
WORLD 532.3 582.6 585.7 147.9 173.2 177.2 148.1 173.2 177.1Developing countries 325.0 351.3 346.2 117.8 140.9 146.5 73.8 86.1 87.6Developed countries 207.3 231.3 239.5 30.1 32.3 30.7 74.3 87.1 89.5LIFDC 58.5 62.3 59.8 4.0 5.4 6.3 1.6 2.1 1.8LDC 10.8 11.0 10.9 1.1 1.5 2.1 0.5 0.5 0.5
1 The split years bring together northern hemisphere annual crops harevested in the latter part of the first year shown, with southern hemisphere annual crops harvested in the early part of the second year shown; for tree crops which are produced throughout the year, calendar year production for the second year shown is used.
APPENDIX TABLE 10: TOTAL OILCROPS STATISTICS (million tonnes)
Production 1 Imports Exports
Sta
tist
ica
l a
pp
en
dix
118 119FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2017
APPENDIX TABLE 11: TOTAL OILS AND FATS STATISTICS 1 (million tonnes)
13/14-15/16
average2016/17 2017/18
13/14-15/16 average
2016/17 2017/1813/14-15/16
average2016/17 2017/18
estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast
ASIA 44.7 48.3 50.0 49.5 50.9 52.6 105.8 115.7 121.4Bangladesh 1.9 2.3 2.5 - - - 2.3 2.7 2.9China 9.4 8.5 9.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 36.7 38.8 40.7 of which Taiwan Prov. 0.5 0.5 0.5 - - - 0.9 1.0 1.0India 13.8 15.5 16.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 22.9 25.3 26.0Indonesia 0.1 0.1 0.1 26.4 28.9 29.5 10.7 12.1 13.3Iran, Islamic Republic of 1.3 1.5 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 1.8 2.0 2.1Japan 1.3 1.3 1.4 - - - 3.2 3.3 3.3Korea, Republic.of 1.1 1.2 1.3 - - - 1.4 1.6 1.7Malaysia 1.4 1.4 1.4 18.5 17.7 18.8 4.6 4.6 5.3Pakistan 3.0 3.5 3.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.7 5.2 5.5Philippines 0.9 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.7 2.0 2.2Singapore 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7Turkey 1.8 2.0 2.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 3.1 3.4 3.3
AFRICA 10.6 11.3 11.6 1.8 1.7 1.8 16.9 18.1 18.2Algeria 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.0 1.1Egypt 2.0 2.2 2.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 2.3 2.8 2.7Nigeria 1.5 1.6 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 3.4 3.5 3.5South Africa 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.1 - - 1.3 1.5 1.5
CENTRAL AMERICA 2.6 2.6 2.7 1.2 1.4 1.4 5.1 5.3 5.4Mexico 1.5 1.5 1.6 0.1 - - 3.4 3.6 3.7
SOUTH AMERICA 3.2 3.2 3.3 9.8 10.5 11.4 17.5 18.5 18.5Argentina 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.8 6.4 7.0 4.0 4.3 4.0Brazil 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.8 1.7 1.8 8.7 9.1 9.3Paraguay - - - 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1Uruguay 0.1 0.1 0.1 - - - 0.1 0.1 0.2
NORTH AMERICA 5.1 5.5 5.8 6.6 7.4 7.4 20.4 21.2 22.0Canada 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.3 3.8 3.8 1.5 1.5 1.6United States of America 4.7 5.0 5.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 18.9 19.7 20.4
EUROPE 14.3 14.7 14.5 10.5 12.6 11.9 38.6 39.7 39.2European Union 11.7 12.0 11.7 3.3 3.2 3.1 31.9 32.6 32.2Russian Federation 1.3 1.3 1.4 2.3 2.9 2.8 4.5 4.7 4.7Ukraine 0.3 0.3 0.3 4.5 6.1 5.5 1.0 0.9 0.8
OCEANIA 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.3 1.3Australia 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9
WORLD 81.1 86.4 88.5 81.4 86.4 88.5 205.5 219.8 226.0Developing countries 59.8 64.1 66.1 63.0 65.2 67.9 142.2 154.5 160.3Developed countries 21.3 22.2 22.3 18.4 21.2 20.5 63.2 65.3 65.7LIFDC 26.2 29.2 30.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 42.7 46.7 48.0LDC 6.9 7.7 8.0 0.6 0.7 0.7 9.8 10.7 11.1
1 Includes oils and fats of vegetable, marine and animal origin.
APPENDIX TABLE 11: TOTAL OILS AND FATS STATISTICS 1 (million tonnes)
Imports Exports Utilization
Statistica
l ap
pe
nd
ix
118 119FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2017
APPENDIX TABLE 12: TOTAL MEALS AND CAKES STATISTICS 1 (million tonnes)
13/14-15/16
average2016/17 2017/18
13/14-15/16 average
2016/17 2017/1813/14-15/16
average2016/17 2017/18
estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast
ASIA 35.1 37.7 38.8 14.2 14.0 14.3 152.0 171.7 179.2China 2.3 3.0 2.9 2.3 1.9 2.0 80.8 93.4 96.6 of which Taiwan Prov. 0.5 0.5 0.5 - - - 2.5 2.5 2.6India 0.2 0.4 0.5 2.6 2.6 2.4 12.8 13.9 14.3Indonesia 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.3 4.5 4.7 6.5 7.0 7.4Iran, Islamic Republic of 2.1 2.0 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.4 3.8 4.1Japan 2.3 2.2 2.2 - - - 6.4 6.4 6.6Korea, Republic.of 3.9 3.5 3.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 5.0 4.8 4.9Malaysia 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.0 2.1 2.4Pakistan 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.3 3.6 4.1 4.6Philippines 2.5 2.9 3.1 0.5 0.4 0.4 3.0 3.5 3.8Saudi Arabia 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.4 1.5 1.7Thailand 3.2 3.2 3.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 5.7 6.4 6.6Turkey 1.9 2.2 2.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.1 5.9 6.3Viet Nam 4.7 5.5 6.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 5.9 7.3 7.7
AFRICA 5.8 6.0 6.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 13.1 14.2 14.6Egypt 1.6 1.5 1.7 - - - 3.0 3.4 3.5South Africa 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.1 2.3 2.3
CENTRAL AMERICA 4.0 4.4 4.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 9.1 10.1 10.1Mexico 2.2 2.4 2.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 6.7 7.5 7.5
SOUTH AMERICA 5.5 5.4 5.4 49.1 51.7 54.4 28.4 30.9 31.9Argentina - - - 29.2 32.6 33.4 4.1 5.0 5.2Bolivia - - - 1.8 1.6 1.8 0.2 0.4 0.4Brazil - - - 14.3 13.8 15.2 16.6 17.6 18.2Chile 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.6 1.7 1.7Paraguay - - - 2.6 2.3 2.5 0.4 0.5 0.6Peru 1.0 1.2 1.3 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.7Uruguay 0.2 0.2 0.2 - - - 0.2 0.2 0.2Venezuela 1.2 0.7 0.7 - - - 1.4 1.0 0.9
NORTH AMERICA 5.1 5.1 5.0 16.3 16.5 16.8 37.1 39.0 39.5Canada 1.0 0.9 0.8 4.8 5.5 5.5 2.2 2.2 1.9United States of America 4.1 4.2 4.1 11.5 11.0 11.3 34.9 36.8 37.5
EUROPE 30.5 30.8 32.3 7.9 8.9 8.6 67.5 70.6 72.0European Union 27.9 28.0 29.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 57.5 59.0 60.5Russian Federation 0.6 0.5 0.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 5.6 6.8 6.9Ukraine - - - 3.9 5.1 4.7 1.7 1.8 1.7
OCEANIA 3.1 3.2 3.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 3.8 4.0 4.3Australia 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.8 1.9 2.0
WORLD 89.0 92.5 95.4 89.1 92.6 95.5 311.1 340.5 351.6Developing countries 48.1 51.3 52.7 64.7 67.0 70.0 196.3 220.5 229.4Developed countries 40.9 41.2 42.7 24.4 25.5 25.5 114.8 120.0 122.2LIFDC 3.0 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.6 24.3 26.7 27.9LDC 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 4.4 5.0 5.3
1 Expressed in product weight; includes meals and cakes derived from oilcrops as well as fish meal and other meals from animal origin.
APPENDIX TABLE 12: TOTAL MEALS AND CAKES STATISTICS
Imports Exports Utilization
Statistica
l ap
pe
nd
ix
128 129FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2017
APPENDIX TABLE 23: SELECTED INTERNATIONAL PRICES FOR OILCROP PRODUCTS AND PRICE INDICES
International prices1 FAO indices7
Period Soybeans 2 Soybean oil 3 Palm oil 4 Soybean cake 5 Rapeseed
meal 6
Oilseeds Vegetable oils Oilcakes/meals
.............................................. (USD per tonne) .............................................. ................... (2002-2004=100) ................
Annual (Oct/Sept)
2004/05 275 545 419 212 130 104 103 1012005/06 259 572 451 202 130 100 107 962006/07 335 772 684 264 184 129 150 1282007/08 549 1325 1050 445 296 216 246 2142008/09 422 826 627 385 196 157 146 1792009/10 429 924 806 388 220 162 177 1832010/11 549 1308 1147 418 279 214 259 2002011/12 562 1235 1051 461 295 214 232 2192012/13 563 1099 835 539 345 213 193 2552013/14 521 949 867 534 324 194 189 2532014/15 407 777 658 406 270 155 153 1942015/16 396 773 655 351 232 151 155 1682016/17 404 806 729 336 225 154 160 171Monthly2015 - October 377 743 581 351 255 146 143 1702015 - November 367 726 561 328 232 142 138 1592015 - December 372 757 568 317 215 144 141 1532016 - January 368 722 564 316 217 142 139 1522016 - February 370 762 639 303 203 142 150 1462016 - March 379 761 694 301 219 145 160 1452016 - April 398 797 723 339 242 152 166 1632016 - May 425 790 708 406 261 160 163 1932016 - June 455 797 679 430 259 169 162 2042016 - July 429 790 652 400 234 159 157 1892016 - August 414 812 736 375 228 156 169 1782016 - September 403 825 755 344 219 153 172 1652016 - October 404 853 712 340 214 153 168 1612016 - November 409 875 755 343 218 155 176 1632016 - December 420 902 783 344 211 159 183 1632017 - January 425 879 806 355 216 161 186 1682017 - February 428 838 779 357 241 162 179 1702017 - March 408 809 735 346 238 155 168 1642017 - April 389 788 693 331 240 149 161 1582017 - May 392 827 732 329 239 150 169 1572017 - June 379 821 681 313 238 144 162 1502017 - July 409 836 665 326 220 154 160 1552017 - August 391 854 678 318 216 149 164 1522017 - September 395 879 729 329 209 151 172 1562017 - October 397 869 721 331 207 151 170 157
1 Spot prices for nearest forward shipment 2 Soybeans: US, No.2 yellow, c.i.f. Rotterdam.3 Soybean oil: Dutch, fob ex-mill.4 Palm oil: Crude, c.i.f. Northwest Europe.5 Soybean cake: Pellets, 44/45 percent, Argentina, c.i.f. Rotterdam.6 Rapeseed meal: 34 percent, Hamburg, f.o.b. ex-mill.7 The FAO indices are based on the international prices of five selected seeds, ten selected oils and five selected cakes and meals. The indices are calculated using the
Laspeyres formula; the weights used are the export values of each commodity for the 2002-2004 period.
Sources: FAO and Oil World.