oil palm and green economy in indonesia: lessons from east kalimantan
TRANSCRIPT
Oil palm and Green Economy in Indonesia: lessons from East Kalimantan
LEDs Asia Forum, Jogjakarta, 10-13 November 2014
Krystof Obidzinski, CIFOR
3. GHG emissions and Green Economy in E. Kalimantan
BAU Scenario
GE = Reduce GHG 15.7% by 2020 (RAN-GRK)
Source: McKinsey Report
4. Green Economy in East Kalimantan and GHG emissions
68 57.32
52
43.48
50
42.15
35
29.51
20
16.86
20
16.86
4
3.37
2
1.69
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2010 2020
Oil Palm Agriculture Forestry Mining Construction Petroleum dan Refining Manufacturing Services
Reduce GHG from OP by 10 M tons
Source: McKinsey Report
6. GHG implications of scenarios
Saved Converted Saved Converted
Below ground Above ground
Scenario 1 0.00 -1438015365.77 0.00 221033821.40
Scenario 2 -808750110.96 -665605791.93 87107274.05 240243665.28
Scenario 3 -1590322549.47 0.00 222231587.19 98518475.67
-2500.00
-2000.00
-1500.00
-1000.00
-500.00
0.00
500.00
1000.00
Mill
ion
s
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Indicative value of ecosystem services Lost under each scenario
25.73
20.01
6.27
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00
SCENARIO 1
SCENARIO 2
SCENARIO 3
USD Billions
Source: Constanza et al 2014
Conclusions Scenario 3 most optimal for GHG reduction in OP to
meet the Green Economy target
PES loss also lowest
However, Scenario 3 results in 1.6 M ha (50%) of allocated plantation area being taken out of development
Degraded land is all under commercial concessions and thus unavailable to offset the loss of the plantation area
Scenario 3 has the additionality of 100M tons of CO2 eq, thus the cut off threshold of 35 tons of CO2 /ha could be adjusted upwards to 45-50 tons of CO2 /ha
This would enable OP to be in line with the GE target and keep the loss of the plantation area to below 1 M ha