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OIL &GAS ANNUAL REVIEW

2018

Oil & Gas Annual Review 2018

CONTENTS

I n t r o d u c t i o n

U p s t r e a m & P r o d u c t i o n

M i d s t r e a m S e c t o r

M i d s t r e a m A c t i v i t y

G a s D e v e l o p m e n t s

A s s e t A c q u i s i t i o n s

R e g u l a t o r y

G l o s s a r y

3

4

7

8

9

13

14

19 C o n t a c t s 21

INTRODUCTION

3


Tominiyi Owolabi Partner, Oil and Gas January 2019

This Review is the second in our series and

this year we would be looking at major,

industry wide events across the Nigerian Oil

and Gas Industry (the Industry) in 2018.

2018 was an improvement on 2017 in terms

of investment and regulatory activities in the

Industry. You will observe as you go through

the Review, that some of the major

highlights of 2018 include the passage of

the PIGB by the Senate and its presentation

to President Muhammadu Buhari for assent;

the NLNGs Train 7 development and

financing which has finally kicked off and the

NNPC’s 7 Critical Gas Development

Projects (7CGDPs).

On the gas side, true to its promise, there

was some activity by the NNPC in relation

to the Flare Gas Commercialization

Programme and the ensuing regulations

which were issued in 2018, as well as a few

critical projects earmarked by the NNPC

and its subsidiaries..

Expectedly, 2019 will be off to a slow start

on account of factors such as the Nigerian

general elections, global slump in the

economy, fall in crude prices as well as

uncertainty on the passage of the PIB

amongst others. Accordingly, we do not

expect any significant activity in Q1 and Q2,

save the continuation of some of the deals

which kicked off in 2018. Post the elections

however, we do expect some pick-up in

activity.

I hope that you find it an enriching read.

Please do not hesitate to contact us if you

have any queries.

Nigeria retained its position as Africa’s top oil producer in 2018, a position which it had lost

briefly to Angola sometime in 2016 on account

of increased vandalisation of oil facilities in the

oil rich Niger Delta. The country had set a

production benchmark of 2.3 mbd in the 2018 budget on the back of projections that

production output would hit 2.2 million bpd by

early 2019 when the 200,000 bpd Egina field

comes on stream.

Nigeria, which had earlier been exempted from

the 2017 OPEC supply cuts, will in 2019, be

expected to reduce production output as part

of efforts by OPEC to tighten the oil market

and increase the price of crude to $70 per barrel by Q3 2019. Understandably, this raises

concerns of potential decrease in government

revenue from oil exports. If the country is to

implement the production cuts with minimal

disruption to current government revenue levels, then a ramp up on condensates

production to about 640,000 bpd from its

current capacity of about 450,000 bpd

equivalent of condensates will be a welcome

development, given that the OPEC production numbers applies only to crude oil and does not

include condensates.

Anxiet ies relat ing to the OPEC cuts

notwithstanding, there is optimism that the country’s planned daily oil output of 2.3million

bpd for 2019 is still achievable. This was on

the back of the attainment of first oil by Egina,

Nigeria’s deepwater oil field in December

2018, which added an additional 200,000 bpd to the mix, thereby raising Nigeria’s daily oil

production above 2.09 million bpd as of

December, 2018.

Nigeria retains position as Africa’s top oil producer amidst OPEC Production cuts


4

2.3million bpd Nigeria’s projected daily oil output of

for 2019 still achievable

UPSTREAM & PRODUCTION


2018, a modest year for Upstream Investments in Nigeria


5

24% of capex on upstream Oil & Gas projects in sub Saharan Africa between 2019 & 2025, will be expended in Nigeria.

2018 did not witness any signif icant investments in new upstream projects. This

has been attributed to a number of factors

including Nigeria’s slow recovery from the

recession, inability of the Federal Government

to fully pass the much awaited PIB as well as uncertainty around fiscal terms for upstream

investments, slump in global crude oil prices,

and general decline in the economy amongst

others. Further, given that 2019 is an election

year for Nigeria, investors would typically be cautious of commencing any fresh round of

investments or acquisitions.

Despite the above, it is estimated that about

24% of the total capex on upstream oil and gas

projects in sub Saharan Africa over the next 5-6 years commencing from 2019, will be

expended in Nigeria.

Some of the key projects headlining that

expenditure are the Agip operated Zabazaba

Eton project, as well as developments on Shell’s assets in Bonga North and Bonga

South West. However, execution of some of

these projects would still take a few years.

In 2018, we also saw some independents grow by expanding their businesses into allied

services and we expect them to continue on

this path as they aim to get stronger.


Upstream Financing


6

Upstream asset financing was generally slow for most of 2018, save for the odd transaction

here and there. NNPC and NPDC favoured

alternative models of raising finance- (the

forward sale) to unlock value in certain

stranded non- JV assets. These models, although not new to the market, could solve

the funding challenges that have plagued the

government’s side for many years.

NPDC also achieved significant milestones in 2018, having increased its average production

from its operated assets which has steadily

grown from about 108,000 of oil per day in

2017, to 165,000 bod as at December 2018.

Significantly, NPDC’s equity production share currently represents about 8% of national daily

production which has been attributed to

initiatives such as the asset management team

structure, adoption of strategic financing models, and security architecture framework

amongst others. We expect that NPDC’s

alternative financing models would continue to

drive future upstream projects by the NPDC,

given its potential to unlock value from stranded assets in partnership with key

investors, whilst also enabling the NPDC side-

step some of the bottlenecks and challenges

associated with its traditional funding models.

More traditionally, however, the headline deal

for 2018 was clearly NLNG kickstarting the

long-awaited USD7 billion Train 7 development

and financing, which is aimed at construction

of a new LNG train thus ensuring continued production and supply of LNG to meet NLNG’s

existing and future LNG commitments.

NPDC’s equity production share currently represents about 8% of national daily production

MIDSTREAM SECTOR

Nigeria’s march towards self-sustainability in Refined Petroleum Products still on Course


7

Given the continued underperformance of the nation’s four major refineries, modular

refineries have been identified as one of the

ways of increasing the country’s refining

capacity. One of the ‘wins’ for the Federal

Government in 2018, was the ground-breaking ceremony for the Waltersmith 5,000bpd

Refinery with a capacity to scale up to

35,000bpd, with another 2 refineries billed for

completion between 2019 and 2020.

One of the key challenges for investors in

modular refineries in Nigeria and financiers

alike, is that of guaranteed supply of feedstock.

This perhaps, led to the model adopted by the

few existing modular field refineries in the country as well as those that are currently

under construction, whereby an upstream

producer establishes a midstream company to

own and operate the modular refinery, thereby

ensuring security of supply of crude feedstock to the refinery. Other possible options could be

in the form of partnerships or other forms of

alliance between the project sponsor of a

modular refinery and the holder of an onshore

producing asset, with the modular refinery cited close to the field, thus guaranteeing

supply of crude and reducing the risks

associated with transportation of crude oil via

pipelines over long distances.

The perceived slow progress in the take-off of modular refineries prompted the Federal

Government to look to the Dangote 650,000

bpd oil refinery which is expected to

commence operations sometime in 2020, to

provide the much needed boost to Nigeria’s refining capacity. The Dangote refinery would

be a game changer for Nigeria, transporting

the country from an importer of petroleum

products to a major exporter of petroleum

products.

From all indicators, the Dangote refinery and

proposed modular refineries would not sound

the death knell for the nation’s existing refineries, as it appears that the Federal

Government is set to push ahead with its

proposed, comprehensive rehabilitation of the

refineries in Warri, Kaduna and Port Harcourt

in a bid to restore them to their nameplate production capacities. However, industry

watchers and analysts have remained

sceptical about the Federal Government’s

proposal to rehabilitate the government owned

refineries, given the numerous failed attempts to achieve the same objective, as well as

strong sentiments that the refineries would be

better off in private hands.

Federal Government looking up to Dangote

650,000 bpd oil refinery which is expected to commence operations sometime in 2020

Nigerian firm inaugurates $500m LNG plant in Rivers State


8

Nigeria’s gas market enjoyed the significant investment of a $500million mini-LNG plant

(the Plant) inaugurated in 2018 by Greenville

Oil and Gas Company Limited’s (Greenville),

an indigenous hydrocarbon company. The

Plant, located in Port Harcourt, Rivers State, has a production capacity of 2,250 tonnes per

day, circa 750 million tonnes per year.

Grenville’s investment in the Plant (which is a

first of its kind in Africa, according to reports),

typifies investor’s increased confidence in

Nigeria’s gas industry; and buttresses the available opportunities in Nigeria’s gas market.

A l t h o u g h , i t i s e x p e c t e d t h a t t h e

implementation of the NGP, particularly the

reshaping of the regulatory landscape of the

gas industry, as envisaged by the NGP, will lead to a rise in investment activities, the

regulation of gas prices in the domestic market

will continue to be a deterrent to the huge

investment required to unlock Nigeria’s gas

potential.

The plant, in Port Harcourt, has a production capacity of

2,250 tonnes per day

MIDSTREAM ACTVITY

Nigeria Increases it’s proven and unproven gas reserves


9

In October 2018, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) disclosed an

increase in Nigeria’s current proven gas

reserves from 199 trillion standard cubic feet

(scf) to 202 trillion scf, while unproven gas

reserves now stand at about 600 trillion scf. This is a significant development as Nigeria

now has almost 10 times the Trinidadian

reserves base and is 9th in the world based on

proven gas reserves thus placing Nigeria

(which has been described as a gas province), in the same league as Iran, Qatar and Russia.

Discoveries in 2018 such as Shell’s discovery

of about .5 trillion cubic feet of gas and 42

Million barrels of condensate, in shallow and deep reservoirs, onshore Eastern Nigeria, also

helped to boost Nigeria’s gas reserves

estimates. Nigeria’s gas production for 2018

was in the region of about 8.5 billion scf per

day, of which 43% (about 3.7 billion scf per day) of total gas production was exported, 32%

(about 2.7 billion scf per day) used upstream

for gas re-injection and gas-lift, 18% (1.5billion

scf per day) utilised domestically for power

generation and industries, while the remainder (about 7% or 600 million scf per day)

accounted for flare gas.

GAS DEVELOPMENTS

8.5 billion scf per day

43%

32%18%

7%

Upstream

Exports

Domestic Use

Flared 3.7 billion (scf/d)

2.7 billion (scf/d)

1.5 billion (scf/d)

600 million (scf/d)

Nigeria’s gas production for 2018 was about

FGN Initiates Projects aimed at Improving Domestic Utilisation of Gas


10

Despite the current challenges impeding the development of a robust midstream gas sector

such as the absence of gas infrastructure as

well as regulated prices for downstream gas,

the Federal Government has initiated various

gas projects aimed at stimulating activities in the midstream sector –one of which is the

NNPC re-entry projects in Oredo, Utorogu and Odidi via its subsidiary – the Nigerian

Petroleum Development Company (NPDC),

which upon completion, would deliver an

additional 240 million scf per day to the

domestic market in 2019.

GAS DEVELOPMENTS

The NNPC has also made significant investment to promote the use of LPG with the revamp of the eight butanisation plants in: Apapa Ibadan Oshogbo Enugu Ilorin Gombe Makurdi Kano as part of its plan to connect all the stations through pipelines to bring LPG closer to consumers.

Other ongoing LPG projects which are expected to come on stream in 2019 include

the 12 metric million standard feet per day

(mmscfd) capac i ty LPG p lan t be ing

established by Green Energy International

Limited in Ikuru Town in Rivers state. The plant secured an approval to construct (ATC) from

the Department of Petroleum Resources

(DPR) in August 2018. The private sector has also renewed calls for value added tax on

locally produced LPG which has affected the

pricing and the demand for locally produced

LPG. It is believed that this would further boost

investments in the sector, stimulate local production and increase utilisation of LPG.

FGN Initiates Projects aimed at Improving Domestic Utilisation of Gas


11

On the private sector side, a number of gas utilization projects set up of private sector

players are scheduled to come on stream in a

couple of years with this there would be

increased supply of processed gas for use in

the domestic market.

In 2018, the NNPC also sealed a deal which

would allow for the development of a virtual

gas pipeline network for the power sector. The

project would involve the installation of “mini-LNG plants which will initially supply about 84

million scf of gas from production fields using

customised cryogenic tankers, to areas that are not easily accessible through pipelines.

Given the policy objectives of the Federal

Government as set out in the National Gas

Policy, investment opportunities abound in the

midstream gas sector, in areas such as pipelines, gas processing facilities, CNG, LPG,

LNG etc. What is required is government’s

willingness to deregulate downstream prices

as well as transit to a market led regime, which

would encourage entrants to invest in the sector.

GAS DEVELOPMENTS

NNPC sealed a deal for the development of a virtual gas pipeline network for the power sector

NNPC kick starts 7 critical gas projects across Nigeria to support 15GW of power generation


12

Nigeria’s focus towards establishing sustainable gas supply for the domestic market has been

evident in recent years with the development of

several infrastructure to harness the nation’s

gas reserves. This received a significant push

with NNPC signing agreements in Q3 2018 in respect of 7 Critical Gas Development Projects

(7CGDP) expected to deliver about 3.4 billion

standard cubic feet of gas per day (bscfd). The

7CGDP which comprises the development of

(x) the 4.3 trillion cubic feet (TCF) Assa North/Ohaji South field; (y) the 6.4 TCF Unitized Gas

Fields; (z) the 7.0 TCF NPDC’s OML 26, 30 &

42; (xx) the 2.2 TCF Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) JV Gas Supply

to Brass Fertilizer Company; (yy) the 5.0 TCF

OML 13 to support the expansion of Seven

Energy Uquo Gas Plant; and (zz) the Cluster

development of TCF Okpokunou/Tuomo West (OML 35 & 62) is expected to bridge medium

term gas supply gap by 2020.

The 7CGDP are also expected to generate at

least 15 gigawatts (GW) of electricity by 2020 and close the demand-supply gap in the

domestic gas market.

GAS DEVELOPMENTS

15 GW of electricity by 2020

The 7CGDP are also expected to generate at least

Marginal Field Bid Rounds


13

Although the 2018 marginal field bid round

which has been in the offing did not kick off in

2018, all sights are now set on a 2019 post-

election date for the marginal field bid rounds.

Expectedly, this Bid Round will bring more

players to the table- new consortia as well as

independents who will be looking to diversify

their asset portfolio.. Additionally, the

government has raised concerns on the poor

performance of many previous marginal field

awardees, prompting calls for revocation of

some of the awards, and for tighter measures

in selecting preferred bidders for the next

round.

ASSET ACQUIS I T IONS

all sights are now set on a

2019 post-election

date for the marginal field bid

rounds

2018 did not see any major asset divestments or acquisitions save for a number of isolated deals

such as the Petrobras divestment of some of its holdings as well as a number of quiet deals by one

or two of the oil majors. It is not clear yet whether 2019 will see any significant deal activity

especially in light of the general elections scheduled for Q1 2019 and the fact that a number of

assets are due for renewal, however we do expect that as the year matures, there might be the odd

deal or two on the table.. However, one area that is generally acclaimed as long overdue, is the

marginal field bid rounds, given that the last bid rounds occurred about ten years ago

Renewal of OMLs in 2019


14

About 42 oil mining leases are due to expire in 2019 and the renewal of these leases are

expected to trigger inflow of investments for

further development of the petroleum assets

so as to boost reserves. The process for

renewal of some of these leases has already commenced and some OML holders have

already secured approval for renewal of some

of the leases that were due for renew. It is

expected that the renewal of some of the leases which are still pending, would continue

next year, although perhaps with some delays,

given the up-coming elections. With renewal

processes and grants out of the way, we

expect that the much needed fresh round of investments in the affected assets will be

triggered, thus paving way for fresh activity in

the industry.

REGULATORY

About 42 oil mining leases are due to expire this year and the renewal of these leases are expected to trigger inflow of investments

DPR issues new safety guidelines for depots across Nigeria


15

The DPR raised the Health, Safety and Environment (“HSE”) bar in Nigeria’s oil sector

by issuing a new safety guideline in Q3 2018

known as the Minimum Industry Safety Training

(Guidelines), which is aimed at preventing fire

outbreaks at fuel depots as well as catering for the safety and protection of depots across the

country. The Guidelines make it mandatory for

every depot to have safety kits for downstream

facilities and the personnel who work there.

The Guidelines are a welcome development in

the oil and gas industry following the recent fire

outbreaks that have been plaguing depots

across the country such as the Linc Oil incident

in Q3, 2017 at the Linc Oil and Gas Depot, Calabar, the Apapa PWA loading jetty incident

shortly afterwards and the inferno which occurred at Stallionaire Oil Depot, Ijegun

Satelite Town, Ijegun, Lagos.

Following the Loss Time Injury incidents (“LTI”),

the DPR sought to attain zero LTI in the downstream sector in 2018 and the Guidelines

are one of the means by which the DPR seeks

to achieve this. However, beyond the

Guidelines, there is the need for HSE

compliance by operators, the DPR and other regulatory agencies. Recognizing the need for

strict HSE standards, the DPR have made

compliance with the guidelines a prerequisite

for the yearly renewal of operating licences by

operators.

REGULATORY

Guidelines make it mandatory for

every depot to have safety kits for downstream

facilities and the personnel who

work there

Passage of the PIGB: NNPC prepares for listing of 40% of its shares on the Nigeria Stock Exchange


16

At the 2018 annual conference of the Association of Energy Correspondents of

Nigeria (NAEC), the GMD of the NNPC

announced that 40% of the shares of the

NNPC would be floated at the NSE when the

PIGB gets Presidential Assent. The PIGB, which is one of the four derivative bills that

emanated from the PIB, aims at achieving: (i)

the creation of efficient and effective governing

institutions with clear and separate roles for the

petroleum industry; (ii) the establishment of a framework for the creation (out of existing

government-owned entities) of commercially

oriented and profit driven entities that will

ensure value-add and internationalization of

the petroleum industry; (iii) the promotion of transparency and accountability in the

petroleum industry; and (iv) the creation of a

conducive business environment for operators

in the petroleum industry.

When passed into law, the PIGB will require the Minister to within six months after its

enactment take necessary steps under the

Nigerian Companies and Allied Matters Act to

incorporate two entities, namely – the Nigerian

Petroleum Assets Management Company (NPAMC) and the Nigerian Petroleum

Company (NPC) which will be vested with

certain liabilities and assets of the NNPC. The

NPC shall be an integrated oil and gas

company operating across the value chain and vested with the responsibility of overseeing all

of NNPC’s assets, with the exception of assets

held under Production Sharing Contracts.

How the passage of the PIGB and the other components parts of the PIB will play out in

2019 cannot be predicted with exactitude but

we do expect there will be some movement on

the matter particularly post the 2019 general elections.

REGULATORY

40% of shares of the NNPC may be

floated at the NSE when the PIGB secures Presidential Assent

Local Content Strides in 2018


17

In furtherance of its statutory mandate, the Nigerian

Content Development and Monitoring Board

(NCDMB) employed various strategies in 2018, to

increase local content penetration in the oil and gas

sector. Notably, the NCDMB initiated plans to

capitalise a $200million Nigerian Content Intervention

Fund (NCIF) capable of facilitating 100 per cent local

fabrication for refineries. The NCDMB also made a

$10 million investment in the Waltersmith modular

refinery to be located at the firm’s oil field at Ibigwe,

Imo State, as part of its commitment to support the

take-off of modular refinery projects.

The NCDMB also proposed that a significant portion

of the engineering, procurement and construction

work for the planned 7 billion dollar Nigeria Liquefied

Natural Gas (NLNG) Limited Train 7 plant will be done

in-country by mostly Nigerian companies as part of

effort to ensure local content drive in the country.

Apparently, the NCDMB is leveraging on what had

been achieved with the Egina Floating Production

Storage and Offloading oil platform built by Total, as a

basis to assess new projects.

For the Egina project, more than half of the man

power involved in the project infrastructure were

Nigerians, and about 70% of the hours spent on the

project was onsite in Port Harcourt and Lagos. Nearly

one third of the project’s equipment requirements was

manufactured locally while infrastructure in the

country was enhanced, such as the construction of a

500-meter-long dock to assemble the FPSO.

This is a welcome development as it is in line with the

Federal Government’s resolve for the promotion of

local content as encapsulated in the Nigerian Oil and

Gas Industry Content Development Act 2010 which

governs local content requirements and sets targets

for the level of Nigerian content that must be achieved

in various categories.

As there is still a technical knowledge gap for

Nigerians in the Oil and Gas sector, it is important that

the necessary skills and know-how are developed by

Nigerians in this field and this can only be achieved

through conscious participation by Nigerians in Oil

and Gas Projects.

REGULATORY

…more than half of the man power involved in the project

infrastructure were Nigerians, and about 70% of the hours spent on the project was onsite in Port Harcourt and Lagos.

The Minister of Petroleum issues the Flare Gas (Prevention of Waste and Pollution) Regulations


18

The launch of the FG’s Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP) in

2016 received a major boost in 2018 with the

issuance and gazetting of the Flare Gas

(Prevent ion o f Waste and Po l lu t ion

Regulations), 2018 (the Regulations) in Q3 2018..

The Regulations vest ownership of flare gas in

the FG and provides for a competitive bidding

process, wherein qualified bidders would be issued permits to take flare gas on behalf of

the Federal Government from flare sites, thus

res t r ic t ing the Producer ’s ab i l i ty to

commercialise flare gas produced at such flare

sites. Notably, only Nigerian companies in the midstream sector are eligible to participate in

the bidding process, which commenced in Q4

2018.

The Regulations further prohibits gas flaring for greenfield projects and imposes new

penalties on gas flaring from brownfield

projects, including revocation of a producer’s

Oil Mining Lease or Marginal Field award.

On a general note, the Regulations are a

remarkable departure from the previous gas

re-injection regime under the Associated Gas

Re-injection Act, which was merely a pollution

prevention initiative with no apparent commercial value proposition. It is believed

that the Regulations are a statement of the

intent of the political will and the determination

of public sector stakeholders in the oil and gas

industry to realise the objectives of the Gas Policy. With an equal measure of tenacity on

the implementation front, Nigeria’s gas

industry may well begin to take shape sooner

than anticipated.

REGULATORY

The Regulations

prohibits gas flaring

for greenfield projects and imposes new

penalties


19

7CGDPs

ATC

7 Critical Gas Development Projects

Approval to Construct

BPD Barrels Per Day

BSCFD Standard Cubic Feet of Gas Per Day

CNG Compressed Natural Gas

DPR Department of Petroleum Resources

FG Federal Government

FGN Federal Government of Nigeria

FPSO Floating Production Storage and Offloading

FTZ Free Trade Zones

FPSO Floating Production Storage and Offloading

GMD General Managing Director

GW Gigawatts

HSE Health Safety and Environment

JV Joint Ventures

LPG Liquefied petroleum gas or Liquid petroleum gas

LNG Liquefied Natural Gas

LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas

LTI Loss Time injury

MMSCFD Million Standard Cubic Feet per Day

NAEC National Association of Energy Correspondents of Nigeria

NCDMB Nigerian Content Development Monitoring Board

NCIF Nigerian Content Intervention Fund

GLOSSARY


20

NGP National Gas Policy

NGFCP Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme

NNPC Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation

NLNG Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas Limited

NPC Nigerian Petroleum Company

NPDC Nigerian Petroleum Development Company

NPAMC Nigerian Petroleum Assets Management Company

NSE Nigerian Stock Exchange

OML Oil Mining Lease

OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

PIB Petroleum Industry Bill

PIGB Petroleum Industry Governance Bill

SCF Standard Cubic Feet

SCF/D Standard Cubic Feet Per Day

SPDC Shell Petroleum Development Company

TCF Trillion Cubic Feet

USD United States Dollars

GLOSSARY

CONTACT US

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TOMINIYI OWOLABI

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