offshore renewables minimising opex bruce valpy nantes 21 may 2015
TRANSCRIPT
Offshore renewables:
Minimising OPEX
Nantes, 21 May 2015
Bruce Valpy
Managing Director
© BVG Associates 2015
2/11
• Why focus on turbine reliability
• Reliability centred approach
• 10 steps to success
Contents
Justification
Offshore Renewables: Minimising OPEX
Introduction
© BVG Associates 2015
• BAV add
Selected clients
BVG Associates
• Market analysis and business development
• Supply chain development
• Economic impact assessment
• Support to industrialisation
• Project implementation
• FIT project development (UK only)
• SCADA & condition monitoring
• O&M technical support
• Technical innovation & engineering analysis
• Support to investment in technology
• R&D programme management
• Design and engineering services
3/11
• Why focus on reliability
• Cost of energy
• Health and safety
• Reliability centred approach
• 10 steps to success
Contents
Justification
Reliability centred approach during wind turbine development
Introduction
© BVG Associates 2015
• BAV add
Selected clients
BVG Associates
• Market analysis and business development
• Supply chain development
• Economic impact assessment
• Support to industrialisation
• Project implementation
• FIT project development (UK only)
• SCADA & condition monitoring
• O&M technical support
• Technical innovation & engineering analysis
• Support to investment in technology
• R&D programme management
• Design and engineering services
Cost of energy Basics
LCOE breakdown for project with 6MW turbines LCOE
Where:
LCOE Levelised cost of energy in £/MWh
= revenue needed (from whatever source) to obtain rate of
return W on investment over life of the wind farm
(tax, inflation etc. not modelled)
Ci Capital expenditure in € in year i
Oi Operational expenditure in € in year i
Di Decommissioning expenditure in € in year i
Et Energy production in MWh in year i
W Weighted average cost of capital in % (real)
= (cost of debt x % dept ) + (return on equity x equity portion)
n Operating lifetime of wind farm (baseline 20 years)
m Years before start of operation when expenditure first
incurred
i i year of lifetime (-m, ..., 1, 2, …n)
Project development and consenting up to FID
1%Project management and contingencies from FID
to WCD2%
Nacelle20%
Rotor15%
Tower5%
Foundation supply
11%
Array cables2%
Foundation installation
5%Array cable installation2%
Turbine installation1%
Transmission charges
20%
Unplanned service8%
Operation and planned maintenance
5%Other4%
Decommissioning1%
Operation maintenance and service
36%
Project 4%
Balance of plant supply
13%
Installation 8%
CAPEX 64%
Turbine supply 39%
4/11 © BVG Associates 2015
Source: BVG Associates
Why focus on reliability The case for focus on wind turbine reliability
Spend breakdown
© BVG Associates 2015
Wind farm OPEX
16% of LCOE
Unplanned Service
47%
Turbine ~90%
Foundation
Array cables
Other
Planned Maintenance
Operations
Transmission OPEX
If...
• If turbines were 100% reliable, so just needed visits for
planned maintenance...
• Wind farm OPEX reduced by 43%
• Lifetime expenditure reduced by 7%
• Lost energy due to turbine reliability reduced by 90%
• LCOE reduced by 11%
• Visits down 70%
• Accidents down by >80%
• Increased certainty would increase pool of investors
and decrease cost of capital
• Many innovations beyond
turbines, also…
5/11
Turbine electrical,
34%
Hub and pitch
system, 20%
Gearbox and main
shaft, 11%
Generator, 8%
Blades, 4%
Array cable, 3%
Support structure,
3%Other
turbine,
16%
Other wind farm, 2%
Source: BVG Associates
Lots good
Few components / systems tested thoroughly
Poor justification for component survival (beyond
calculations)
Main component exchange not designed in / tested
Not possible to easily replace wear parts
Poor / incomplete manuals and troubleshooting guides
Track record of unreliable systems / repeat faults
Training strategies not implemented
Site work records incomplete
SCADA report errors
Significant inefficiencies on site
Type Certificate (does not consider the above)
Why focus on reliability The case for focus on wind turbine reliability
Where our experience comes from
© BVG Associates 2015
Due diligence - experience
6/11
Reliability centred approach Important ingredients of reliability centred approach
1a. Reliability budget
© BVG Associates 2015
Turbine MTBF* = 3 months
(90 days)
Rotor 365 days
Blade
900days
Hub Assembly 600 days
Blade bearing 3650 days
Pitch System 450 days
Other 3650 days
Nacelle 200 days
Drive Train MTBF = 700 days
Gearbox MTBF = 3650 days
Generator MTBF = 3650 days
Converter MTBF = 2000 days
Other MTBF = 2700 days
Yaw system MTBF = 900 days
Control system MTBF = 700 days
Auxiliary systems MTBF = 900 days
Tower & Transition Piece
300 days
10 Steps to success
1. Reliability and OPEX
budgets (and model)
* MTBF (large vessel intervention, small vessel
intervention & remote reset)
7/11
Reliability centred approach Important ingredients of reliability centred approach
5. Demonstration of maintenance procedures
© BVG Associates 2015
10 Steps to success
2. ‘Rules of thumb’
1. Reliability and OPEX
budgets (and model)
4. Test and verification
3. Component reliability
reviews
5. Demonstration of
maintenance procedures
8/11
Reliability centred approach Important ingredients of reliability centred approach
6. Joined up SCADA/control/CM
© BVG Associates 2015
10 Steps to success
2. ‘Rules of thumb’
1. Reliability and OPEX
budgets (and model)
4. Test and verification
3. Component reliability
reviews
6.
Joined up SCADA/
control/CM
5. Demonstration of
maintenance procedures
Holistic
decisions
CMS Engineering
9/11
Reliability centred approach Important ingredients of reliability centred approach
9. Fix first time approach
© BVG Associates 2015
10 Steps to success
2. ‘Rules of thumb’
1. Reliability and OPEX
budgets (and model)
4. Test and verification
3. Component reliability
reviews
9. Fix first time approach
8. Useful, accurate data
7. Feedback from site
6.
Joined up SCADA/
control/CM
5. Demonstration of
maintenance procedures
10/11
Reliability centred approach Important ingredients of reliability centred approach
10. Reliability champion
© BVG Associates 2015
10 Steps to success
2. ‘Rules of thumb’
1. Reliability and OPEX
budgets (and model)
4. Test and verification
3. Component reliability
reviews
10. Reliability champion
9. Fix first time approach
8. Useful, accurate data
7. Feedback from site
6.
Joined up SCADA/
control/CM
5. Demonstration of
maintenance procedures
Bill Shankly, Liverpool Football Club
11/11
Thank you
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