office status fall // 2014 · the suburbs, keurig green mountain, inc. completed the expansion of...

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» Greater Boston posts sixth straight positive quarter with 1.1 million sf absorbed

» Highest two-quarter Class A absorption figure in Financial District since 2004

» Route 128 experiences most active quarter since 2006

» East Cambridge Class A asking rents hit record high for fourth straight period

» Construction completions in Boston and Burlington total 547,000 sf of positive absorption

» Build-to-suit construction continues along Route 128

Relative Performance Across the Region // Page 7

*Unless otherwise noted, all data is as of or for the quarter ended September 30, 2014 and is Transwestern | RBJ data.

Charles River Boston

officeSTATus Fall // 2014

2

Tenants absorbed 1.1 million sf of office

space in the third quarter of 2014,

extending Greater Boston’s absorption

streak to six straight quarters as large

national companies continue to target the

region for headquarters space, particularly

along Route 128. Vacancy dropped to 13.4

percent, matching its lowest level since the

economic downturn. During the absorption

streak, the market has experienced 5.5

million sf of positive absorption, making it

one of the most active periods in recent

history. Class A properties have driven

demand in old standbys such as the

Financial District, where tenants absorbed

674,000 sf of Class A space in the last two

quarters, and East Cambridge, where asking

rents continue to surge to near record highs.

Class B properties outside the city have

benefited residually from this activity, having

absorbed three times as much space along

I-495 the past three quarters as the Class A

market.

A pair of high-profile transactions

contributed to the heightened activity

this quarter, adding 547,000 sf of positive

absorption to the market. The historic

Burnham Building, formerly the flagship

home of Filene’s Department Store and

a site of much political turmoil in recent

years, opened its doors to a mix of office

and retail tenants, an important step in the

revitalization of Downtown Crossing. In

the suburbs, Keurig Green Mountain, Inc.

completed the expansion of its campus in

Burlington, bringing its total footprint to

425,000 sf. The KGM campus illustrates the

growing trend of large-tenant activity along

Route 128, where blue-chip firms continue

to lease headquarters space. Vistaprint and

TripAdvisor have HQ projects underway in

Waltham and Needham, respectively, for a

combined 583,000 sf, while Care.com and

Wolverine Worldwide both recently inked

deals to move their HQs to Waltham for

109,000 sf and 155,000 sf, respectively. As

large contiguous blocks of space dry up

in hotspots like East Cambridge, activity

should continue to thrive in Route 128 West,

whose positive absorption streak hit nine

consecutive quarters.

Despite the success of the suburbs, the

story of the Greater Boston market

begins and ends with the two major

hubs at its center. Cambridge, which has

seen minimal office movement for two

consecutive quarters, may be preparing for

a potential feeding frenzy with the news

that the General Services Administration

will solicit proposals from developers to

transform the 375,000 sf Volpe Center into

a mixed-use project. The Seaport District,

now just 11.2 percent vacant, should see

more foot traffic and prestige with the news

of a $1 billion expansion of the Boston

Convention and Exhibition Center. And

the seemingly supply-constrained CBD still

finds a way to attract large space users.

CIC Boston moved into its new home at

50 Milk Street, while Natixis Global Asset

Management agreed to become the anchor

tenant at 888 Boylston Street, the Back Bay’s

first new office tower in a decade. The high

quality of Boston’s space and access to

intellectual capital should continue to drive

tenants to the city – or at least as close to it

as they can get.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

(1.5)

(1.0)

(0.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Absorption sf in millions

Vacancy %

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep

Relative Performance June 30, 2014 = 1.00

Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul.

Unemployment rate %

National unemployment rate

Boston NECTA unemployment rate

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

EMPLOYMENT //US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Indicator Value 2 Qtr % 4 Qtr %

National Unempl. 6.2% -0.5% -1.1%

Boston NECTA Unenempl. 5.8% -0.3% -1.1%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

(1.5)

(1.0)

(0.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


Vacancy %

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10




Unemployment rate %



0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

ABSORPTION & VACANCY //Greater Boston

Vacancy 13.4%

Quarterly Absorption +1.1 million sf

Last Twelve Months Absorption +3.2 million sf

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

(1.5)

(1.0)

(0.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


Vacancy %

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10




Unemployment rate %



0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

Index Value 1 Qtr % 4 Qtr %

S&P 500 1999 +2% +16%

MS Hi Tech Index 984 +3% +18%

STOCK MARKET //Equity Indicators

Economy & Real Estate officeSTATus

Major Submarkets Drive Demand //Seaport, Financial District Absorb 1.4 million sf in Past Year

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

(0.8)

(0.6)

(0.4)

(0.2)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0


Vacancy %

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Class A asking rent per sf per year

FINANCIAL DISTRICT BACK BAY

(400)

(200)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Boston

Seaport Dist

rict

Financial D

istric

t

Longwood

North Sta

tion

South Sta

tion

Charlesto

wn

Back Bay

Midto

wn

Net absorption, last twelve months (in thousands)

• 75 State Street, Boston

• Transwestern | RBJ acted as landlord representative for Brookfield Office Properties in connection with two lease agreements.

• 167,000 sf3

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

(0.8)

(0.6)

(0.4)

(0.2)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0


Vacancy %

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014



(400)

(200)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Boston

Seaport Dist

rict

Financial D

istric

t

Longwood

North Sta

tion

South Sta

tion

Charlesto

wn

Back Bay

Midto

wn


Absorption & Vacancy //Central Boston

TW | RBJ BOSTON DEAL

Boston tenants absorbed 364,000 sf of space in Q3, lowering vacancy to 10.1

percent as Class A asking rents rose slightly to $51.79 per sf.

Class A properties in the Financial District have absorbed 674,000 sf in the past

two quarters, the most-active two-quarter period since 2004.

Nine straight quarters of positive absorption have dropped vacancy in the Seaport

District to 11.2 percent.

CIC Boston moved into 69,000 sf at 50 Milk Street, AltiSource leased 49,000 sf at

321 Summer Street and SimpliSafe moved into 20,000 sf at 294 Washington Street.

Natixis Global Asset Management leased 128,000 sf at 888 Boylston Street, the

17-story Back Bay office tower expected to be completed in 2017.

Governor Deval Patrick approved a bill authorizing a $1 billion, 1.3 million sf

expansion of the Boston Convention and Exhibition Center in the Seaport District.

Tenants began moving into the Burnham Building at 10 Summer St, with Arnold

Worldwide leasing 125,000 sf and Primark taking 112,000 sf of retail and office space.

Zurich Alternative Asset Management purchased 51 Melcher St. ($52.8 million,

103,000 sf, $513.98 per sf) and MetLife and Norges Bank Investment Management

acquired One Beacon St. ($561 million, 1.02 million sf, $551.53 per sf).

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

(0.8)

(0.6)

(0.4)

(0.2)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0


Vacancy %

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014



(400)

(200)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Boston

Seaport Dist

rict

Financial D

istric

t

Longwood

North Sta

tion

South Sta

tion

Charlesto

wn

Back Bay

Midto

wn


Class A Asking Rates //Central Boston

CURRENT AVERAGE ASKING RATES

Central Boston $51.79

Financial District $49.48

Back Bay $59.21

CURRENT DATA

Vacancy 10.1%

Quarterly absorption +364,000 sf

Last twelve months absorption +1.1 million sf

Highlights

Boston CBD officeSTATus

4

• 610 Main Street, Cambridge

• Transwestern | RBJ acted as landlord representative in connection with a lease agreement.

• 140,000 sf

Highlights

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

(200)

(100)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Absorption sf in thousands

Vacancy %

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014


EAST CAMBRIDGE MID CAMBRIDGE WEST CAMBRIDGE

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

East Cambridge

Newton

Wellesley

Seaport District

Back Bay

Burlington

Lexington

Absorption & Vacancy //Cambridge

CURRENT DATA

Vacancy 6.6%

Quarterly Absorption +8,000 sf

Last Twelve Months Absorption +260,000 sf

Class A Asking Rates //Cambridge

Vacancy remained at 6.6 percent as tenants absorbed a net 8,000 sf and Class A

asking rents rose to $57.48 per sf.

Just three buildings, or 3.4 percent of the entire Cambridge office inventory,

experienced positive or negative changes of more than 10,000 sf.

East Cambridge Class A asking rents, now at $63.87 per sf, have surpassed post-

tech-boom highs each of the past four quarters.

Vacant Class A space in Mid and West Cambridge is almost one-fifth of what it was

at the end of 2011.

Alexion Pharmaceuticals moved into 32,000 sf at 55 Cambridge Parkway, Thinking

Phones moved into 25,000 sf at 10 Wilson Road and Luminoso Technologies took

8,000 sf at 675 Massachusetts Avenue.

Just two blocks larger than 100,000 sf remain available for office users, though

several large national tenants continue to scour Cambridge for space.

The General Services Administration announced it will solicit proposals from

developers to transform the 375,000 sf Volpe Center into a mixed-use, public-private

development.

Vecna Technologies acquired 35 Cambridge Park Drive ($43 million, 137,000 sf,

$315.02 per sf) and King Street Properties purchased 87 and 200 Cambridge Park

Drive from Pfizer ($54.6 million, 286,000 sf, $191.00 per sf).

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

(200)

(100)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


Vacancy %

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014



0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

East Cambridge

Newton

Wellesley

Seaport District

Back Bay

Burlington

Lexington

Class A Asking Rates //Cambridge


East Cambridge $63.87

Mid Cambridge NA

West Cambridge $40.40

TW | RBJ CAMBRIDGE DEALRents Increase Over Time Across Market //Q3 2014 Class A Asking Rents Vs. Five-Year Lows, Select Areas

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

(200)

(100)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


Vacancy %

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014



0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

East Cambridge

Newton

Wellesley

Seaport District

Back Bay

Burlington

Lexington

Cambridge officeSTATus

Address City RSF Expected Delivery

53 South Ave. Burlington 274,000 Delivered

400 First Ave. Needham 281,000 06/2015

4 Burlington Woods Burlington 102,000 06/2015

275 Wyman St. Waltham 302,000 09/2015

1265 Main St. Waltham 120,000 09/2015

10 CityPoint Waltham 230,000 06/2016

Construction active along Route 128 //Region’s 1.0 million sf of construction the most since 2007

5

• 77 CityPoint, Waltham

• Transwestern | RBJ acted as tenant representative in connection with a lease agreement.

• 109,000 sf

Route 128 experienced 717,000 sf of positive absorption, with vacancy dropping to

14.4 percent and Class A asking rents rising to $27.92 per sf.

The 717,000 sf of net absorption is the region’s highest quarterly number since 2006.

128 West’s positive absorption streak hit nine straight quarters with net absorption

of 212,000 sf, its most active quarter during that streak.

Class A asking rents in Newton, Needham and Wellesley have collectively risen

28.8 percent since the end of 2012.

NetBrain Technologies took 40,000 sf in Burlington, Windover Development

moved into 17,000 sf in Beverly and Wolters Kluwer began phasing into an eventual

112,000 sf in Waltham.

Care.com will relocate to 77 CityPoint in Waltham, where its 109,000 sf

headquarters will more than double the size of its current office at 201 Jones Road.

Wolverine Worldwide will join Care.com at CityPoint, signing a 155,000 sf lease

to move its headquarters from Lexington to a build-to-suit facility expected to be

completed in 2016.

Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. moved into its new 274,000 sf expansion space in

Burlington, bringing its total footprint in the town to 425,000 sf.

Cornerstone Real Estate Advisers sold 1 Van De Graaff Drive in Burlington ($38.5

million, 158,000 sf, $243.67 per sf) and Piedmont Office Realty Trust acquired 5 Wall

Street in Burlington ($62.5 million, 182,000 sf, $343.96 per sf).

Highlights

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014


ROUTE 128 NORTH ROUTE 128 WEST ROUTE 128 SOUTH

Construction active along Route 128 Region’s 1.0 million sf of construction the most since 2007.




4 Burlington Woods Burlington 102,000 6/1/2015

275 Wyman St. Waltham 302,000 09/2015

1265 Main St. Waltham 120,000 09/2015


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

0

200

400

600

800


Vacancy %

Class A Asking Rates //Route 128


Route 128 North $26.93

Route 128 West $33.43

Route 128 South $21.43

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014


ROUTE 128 NORTH ROUTE 128 WEST ROUTE 128 SOUTH

Construction active along Route 128 Region’s 1.0 million sf of construction the most since 2007.




4 Burlington Woods Burlington 102,000 6/1/2015

275 Wyman St. Waltham 302,000 09/2015

1265 Main St. Waltham 120,000 09/2015


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

0

200

400

600

800


Vacancy %

Absorption & Vacancy //Route 128

CURRENT DATA

Vacancy 14.4%

Quarterly Absorption +717,000 sf

Last Twelve Months Absorption +1.5 million sf

TW | RBJ 128 DEAL

Route 128 officeSTATus

• One Research Drive, Westborough

• Transwestern | RBJ acted as landlord representative for Ferris Development Group in connection with a lease agreement.

• 114,000 sf6

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

0

200

400

600


Vacancy %

$16

$17

$18

$19

$20

$21

$22

$23

$24

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014


The Route 9 Effect Vacancy Drops 20.6 Percentage Points Once You Hit Route 9

I-495 NORTH I-495 WEST I-495 SOUTH

City Mi. from Boston Vacancy

Hudson 40.2 25.4%

Northborough 38.6 61.8%

Westborough 32.6 25.6%

Marlborough 30.9 30.6%

Southborough 28.1 11.4%

Framingham 22.8 8.7%

Natick 18.3 5.5%

Class A Asking Lease Rates //Interstate 495

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

0

200

400

600


Vacancy %

$16

$17

$18

$19

$20

$21

$22

$23

$24

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014


The Route 9 Effect Vacancy Drops 20.6 Percentage Points Once You Hit Route 9

I-495 NORTH I-495 WEST I-495 SOUTH

City Mi. from Boston Vacancy

Hudson 40.2 25.4%






Natick 18.3 5.5%

Absorption & Vacancy //Interstate 495

Vacancy fell to 20.6 percent on 50,000 sf of negative absorption as Class A asking

rents dropped slightly to $20.14 per sf.

Class B properties absorbed 333,000 sf in the past three quarters, compared to

107,000 sf for Class A buildings.

I-495 South’s vacancy averaged 14.4 percent the past two years; the two years

prior, it averaged 25.3 percent.

29 percent of I-495’s vacant space is located in 10 properties.

SanDisk moved into 58,000 sf in Marlborough as part of an eventual 70,000 sf

phase-in, Kewill renewed for 20,000 sf in Chelmsford and Berg took 40,000 sf in

Framingham.

One Research Drive in Westborough is now 93 percent leased after Genzyme

agreed to relocate from Framingham into 114,000 sf.

300 Friberg Parkway in Westborough (78,000 sf) is now under renovation for future

repositioning as a top-of-the-market Class A property.

Anchor Line Partners purchased Cross Point in Lowell ($100 million, 1.3 million sf,

$77.99 per sf) and W.P. Carey Inc. acquired 9 Technology Drive in Westborough ($47

million, 251,000 sf, $187.39 per sf).

Highlights

CURRENT DATA

Vacancy 20.6%

Quarterly Absorption -50,000 sf

Last Twelve Months Absorption +174,000 sf


I-495-North $19.38

I-495-West $20.90

I-495-South $21.08

TW | RBJ 495 DEALCity Miles from Boston Vacancy

Hudson 40.2 25.4%






Natick 18.3 5.5%

The Route 9 Effect //Average Vacancy Drops 20.6 Percentage Points Once You Hit Route 9

Interstate 495 officeSTATus

7

With 46 annual publications, Transwestern | RBJ

produces more research than any other commercial real

estate advisory firm in Greater Boston.

For more information, contact us at [email protected].

Pete McQuaidResearch Associate | [email protected]

Chase BourdelaiseResearch Director | [email protected]

Relative Performance Across the Region

Since 2010, average net absorption as a percentage of inventory in

many suburban regions has exceeded that of the Boston CBD. While

Boston leads the pack in activity and boasts a lower vacancy rate than

much of the region, certain suburban regions are very much alive when

accounting for the size of a given market. With many more opportunities

for growth and a trend toward amenity-focused developments,

Suburban Boston can be enticing to the right user, a reality that is easily

overlooked as downtown Boston receives the bulk of attention. In

fact, Class A product is prospering, especially in suburban hubs such as

Burlington, Braintree, and Marlborough. For hesitant buyers looking to

invest in the region, Boston will remain a strong play and a tight market,

though the performance of suburban areas should not be discounted.0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

0.40%

0.45%

0.50%

Boston CBD Cambridge Route 128 Route 495

Market Comparision: Average Net Absorption as Percentage of Inventory Since 2010

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

1.40%

1.60%

1.80%

2.00%

Boston CBD Cambridge Route 128 Route 495

Annual Net Absorption as Percentage of Inventory

(Average Since 2010)

About the visual: The size of circles represents performance, measured by net absorption in relation to market size. The cities in green have, on average since 2010, done a better job of leasing vacant inventory than the Boston CBD.

Market Interesting officeSTATus

Absorption/Occ Growth Construction $Cl A Asking Rent

Area RSF Vac% Q3’14 LTM* Growth** Comp LTM* Pipeline Class A 4Qtr Ch***

TOTAL MARKET 182,911 13.4% 1,071 3,220 2.0% 1,961 2,940 $ 40.20 3.0%

BOSTON SUBMARKETS 71,912 10.1% 364 1,093 1.7% 1,332 1,593 $51.79 2.0%

Financial District 35,870 11.5% 255 421 1.3% 282 74 $ 49.48 1.1%

Back Bay 13,884 8.1% 70 (188) -1.5% 0 0 $ 59.21 1.4%

Longwood/Inner South 5,133 2.0% 1 169 3.4% 0 489 $ 27.00 2.3%

Seaport District 8,299 11.2% 24 978 13.3% 1,050 800 $ 56.59 11.6%

Charlestown 2,850 9.7% 12 (73) -2.8% 0 0 NA NA

Midtown 2,217 24.6% 10 (324) -19.4% 0 0 $55.00 0.0%

North Station 2,161 3.5% (19) 69 3.3% 0 230 $ 35.00 25.0%

South Station 1,498 5.6% 11 41 2.9% 0 0 NA NA

CAMBRIDGE 11,215 6.6% 8 260 2.5% 50 0 $ 57.48 16.7%

East Cambridge 7,350 5.9% 2 282 4.1% 50 0 $ 63.87 17.9%

Mid Cambridge 2,063 3.7% (4) (55) -2.8% 0 0 NA NA

West Cambridge 1,802 12.7% 11 33 2.1% 0 0 $ 40.40 5.8%

SUBURBAN SUBMARKETS 99,784 16.6% 699 1,867 2.2% 579 1,347 $ 25.34 0.3%

Inner North 3,212 13.9% 33 174 6.3% 0 132 $ 26.85 0.0%

Route 128 & I-495 96,572 16.7% 667 1,693 2.1% 579 1,215 $ 25.31 0.3%

Route 128 61,669 14.4% 717 1,520 2.9% 394 1,035 $ 27.92 0.9%

Route 128 North 26,251 15.9% 422 775 3.5% 394 102 $ 26.93 2.2%

Route 128 West 22,318 11.1% 212 521 2.6% 0 933 $ 33.43 2.8%

Route 128 South 13,100 17.3% 83 224 2.1% 0 0 $ 21.43 0.4%

I-495 34,903 20.6% (50) 174 0.6% 185 181 $ 20.14 0.9%

I-495 North 15,594 22.7% (104) 235 2.0% 185 0 $ 19.38 2.6%

I-495 West 16,699 20.2% 24 (218) -1.6% 0 181 $ 20.90 0.2%

I-495 South 2,610 10.3% 30 156 6.7% 0 0 $ 21.08 0.7%

ALL AMOUNTS, EXCEPT PERCENTAGES AND $ FIGURES IN THOUSANDS

* LTM = Last twelve months // ** LTM absorption as a percentage of occupancy levels twelve months ago // *** Twelve months change in asking lease rate

Copyright © 2014 Transwestern | RBJ, all rights reserved

Looking Forward...

» Will there be more build-to-suit construction along Route 128?

» Will rents continue to rise in East Cambridge?

» Who will be Boston’s next major tenant?

» What will happen with the Volpe Center?

Pete McQuaidResearch Associate | [email protected]

Chase BourdelaiseResearch Director | [email protected]

officeSTATus Fall // 2014

office status fall // 2014 · the suburbs, keurig green mountain, inc. completed the expansion of...

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