Office of the National Science Advisor Office of the National Science Advisor Bureau du Conseiller national des sciencesBureau du Conseiller national des sciences

Jack Smith,

Director S&T Foresight

CRN World Care Conference

September 11, 2007

Vignettes – Foresight Vignettes – Foresight Glimpses on Selected Glimpses on Selected Dimensions of Prospective, Dimensions of Prospective,

Nano FuturesNano Futures

Foresight Disclaimer

• Foresight is a collaborative, sharing and challenging exercise;

• It involves diverse individuals and organizations doing forward research together in search of better preparedness for surprise;

• Nobody owns foresight outputs except those that actually participated;

• This presentation does not represent Canadian government policy, nor the views of the National Science Advisor of Canada

• The presenter is representing his own expertise and reporting upon the insights of those who have joined him in exploring the uncertainties associated with foresight

Current Mindsets are (Quite) Often Limited

• Heavier than air flying machines are impossible - Lord Kelvin, President Royal Society 1882

• The horse is here to stay, the automobile is a novelty - Bank Manager to Henry Ford 1908

• There is no likelihood man can ever tap the power of the atom - Robert Milliken, Nobel Prize in Physics 1923

• Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? - Henry Warner, Film Producer 1927

• There is a world market for about five computers - Thomas Watson IBM 1943

• We don’t like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out - President Decca Records, rejecting the Beatles 1962

Brockman’s List:The Next 50 Years

1. Cybersphere: information beams, portable tele-connection & ubiquitous smart networks;

2. Bio-engineering & bio-robotics, astro-biology, personal genomics & embryo simulation, artificial life models;

3. Quantum math & computing, teleportation, computational and emergent complexity;

4. Search for ETI and biophilic universes;5. Neuro-sentience & convergent cognition,

computational pharmacology,neuro-regeneration

6. Sub-terranean thermophilogy & Triphibious flexible transport

7. Nano-structural products, sensors, materials, fabrication and molecular tailoring

Business 2.0 List

1. Bio-interactive Materials - small sensing devices reside on or inside people, animals, and crops

2. Bio-fuel Production Plants - ethanol, methanol, bio-diesel, eliminating dependence on foreign oil

3. Bionics - the next-generation of sophisticated prosthetic limbs or even artificial organs

4. Cognitronics - to link the brain directly to computers

5. Genotyping - making the connection between DNA and specific physical attributes; i.e. longevity, disease.

6. Combinatorial Science - algorithms and computing to develop hypotheses by observing large amounts of data.

7. Molecular Manufacturing - the building of complex atomic structures one atom at a time

8. Quantum Nucleonics - tapping the energy of the atom for energy

Fraunhofer-Germany Long Term Tech List

1. Smart Environments – micro components, smart sensors, cyber bots;2. Man-Machine Cooperation – intuitive brain-computer links;3. Polytronics – plastics in displays, energy systems and virtual environments;4. Digital Medicine - imaging, simulations, medications via genomics, proteomics;5. Digital Logistics - automated commerce - transactions, storages, fleets; 6. Integrated Production – digital mass customized and virtual, flexible products;7. Adaptive Structures – piezo-ceramics to dampen vibration, noise, save energy; 8. Photonics Enablers- universal light controls: medicine, electronics, materials; 9. Nano-Ultra-Violet – extreme ultaviolet nano-processing radiation applications;10.Simulation and Modelling - of everything – quantum & grid computing power;11.Customized Energy – distributed, portable networks, less central power.

What is Foresight?

A set of strategic tools that support government and industry decisions with adequate lead time for societal preparation and strategic response.

• Anticipates multiple, plausible futures

• 5 – 25 year time horizon

• A rehearsal for potential futures

• Accommodates uncertainty & diversity

• Highlights emerging opportunities & threats

Foresight Tools

• Environmental Scanning• Scenario Planning• Technology Mapping

and Road-mapping• Expert Technical Panels• Robust Factor Analysis

and Strategies Development• Web Virtual Conferences• Computerized Modelling

and Dynamic Simulation

Scenario Basics

Stories With Implications

• Rich context

• Provocative diversity

• Relate to perceived needs & opportunities

• Designate some edges – choices, boundaries

• Consider also the opposites - + and -

Critical Parameters• 4-7 is best, > 10 confuses

• Plots are useful when transparent, consistently structured, concise

• Focus is critical to engage key stakeholders

• Challenges-evidence tests may be useful

• Balance of structure-free form helps ensure vibrancy

• Evocative names help recognition & thematic links

Foresight Systems Lenses

Relevance-Importance• Plausibility

• Technical feasibility

• Probability

• Convergence character

• Disruptive potential

• Relative preference

• Relative expectation

• Instant Buzz Factor

Spheres of Influence• Ecological

• Economic- Productive

• Socio-ethical

• Educational

• Geo-political

• Military-Intelligence

• Values & Culture

Effectiveness -Robustness

• Real uncertainties exposed, elaborated in different ways

• Consensus on risks leads to clear divides between positives and negatives - OR

• Strong and diverging pathways ensures issues and choices are clear with implications

• Stakeholders articulate and begin to advocate new opportunities, strategies for avoidance of threats

• Meta-insights emerge about the fundamental mission and its risk-reward systems

Environmental Scanning

• Strategic Trends: i.e. factors that shift as a result of change patterns, but we have little influence: e.g. more nuclear equipped nations; failing states proliferation;

• Critical Drivers and Uncertainties: i. e. discernible change patterns that may be amenable to stakeholder actions; e.g. global security; major S&T developments

• Possible Shocks: i.e. wild card, high impact, low probability events that alter fundamentals; e.g. 9-11; Iran as a nuclear power

Macro Shaping Trends

• Ambient Intelligence – progress toward the Singularity• Miniaturization of Technology• Globalization of Capital, Terror , Disease, Eco-environment• Anti-globalization of Biodiversity, Culture, Sustainability• De-Carbonization of Energy Economy• Harmonization - Standardization for Trade • Migration, Multi-Culturalism of Populations• Intensification, Differentiation, of Wealth• Bi-polarization of religious Values and Secular Evolution• Transformation, of Infrastructure Systems• Virtualization, Digitization & Integration of: Business-Professions,

Production, Communications, Entertainment, Education• Acceleration of Knowledge Services as Economic Driver• Proliferation of Surveillance - Security

Key Societal Change Domains

• Demographics – population shifts, immigration issues• Science & Technology – genomics, biotech,

convergence, nanotech, telecom & energy innovations• Environment – carrying capacity, global ecology,

treaties• Attitudes, Values, Beliefs – from opinion to religion to

geopolitical impacts on culture, security-terror etc.• Global Economy – interdependent markets, trade,

wealth shifts, productivity & management of innovation

• Governance & Institutions – political organization, nascent, failed and rogue states

• Evident Threats - to civilization, growth economies & infrastructure and to specific populations/segments

ONSA Foresight 2004 - 06

Canadian Foresight – ONSA Led

Challenges Results• Future fuel- technology options,

alternatives to conventional oil• Technology roadmaps for bio-fuels, hydrogen-fuel cells ,

unconventional hydrocarbons

• Technological innovation for the Canadian Health System;

• Technology maps and health commercialization advice; identified new technologies and regulatory stewardship

• S&T for public safety and all hazards Canadian security;

• Threat scenarios, S&T strategies for the DRDC – PSEPC Center for Security Science, links with USDHS, Proteus Critical Thinking Game;

• How to manage public anxieties re animal diseases and mass culls-disposal;

• Technology-communications measures for the CFIA to manage R&D and threats to public health, and strategies for proactive public anxiety reduction;

• How bio-products might factor into our future economy

• Scenarios and Canadian policy drivers for emerging bio-product markets and development paths

ONSA Connections with Global Foresight

Networks• USA National Science Advisor, Cyber Security

Task Force, National Science Foundation, National Intelligence Council, Director of National Intelligence

• UK Chief Scientist and Foresight Office

• Finland and Sweden: Finnsight 2015, Swedish Foresight Laboratory - Vinnova

• European Commission DG Research: Euro Research Area Foresight Network; Institute for Prospective Technology Studies, Framework Program 7

• NISTEP Japan; KISTEP Korea• APEC Centre for Technology Foresight , Industrial

Science and Technology and Energy Working Groups

• UN University Millennium Project • Germany Futur; France Futuris

Define Project Topic

Review Current Situation

Identify Key Lenses

Answer Challenge Questions

Identify Change Drivers

Select Critical Drivers

Identify Scenarios

Populate Each Scenario

Backcast to Present

Synthesis & Recommendations

Foresight Process Overview

Three Revolutions in Science

Nanotechnology

Systems BiologyAdvanced Computation

Strongest material known to man

100 times stronger than steel,only one-sixth the weight

Stiffness-to-weight ratio 40x higherthan that of aluminum

Electrical conductivity betterthan copper

Thermal conductivity greaterthan diamond

Hollow:gas storage, drug delivery

Water filtration

Actuationdemonstrated

Electronic Properties:Structural properties: Composites

1 nm

Carbon Nanotubes: Convergent Potentials

The best fieldemitters known

Already developedfor field emission displays, lighting

Molecular wires Semiconducting

or metallic Single-electron

transistors demonstrated Ballistic transport

(109 A/cm2) –up to 1 mA per tube!

Courtesy of Battelle - Dave Geohegan, ORNL

The Billion-Ton Vision:

Biomass Could Displace 30% or More of Our Current

Transportation Fuel Needs

Post-genomic biology offers the promise of controlled design of energy systems

Controlled Bio-Energy Convergence

Research Methodology…

Each technology/application area was evaluated by each expert panel member on three relevant dimensions:

• Commercial Potential• Technical Feasibility• Public Policy Issues

The midpoint of each team's evaluation are shown in the following 3 diagrams…

Convergent Technologies for Health and Life Sciences 2020

Anticipated Market Size

An

ticipa

ted

F

easib

ility

Convergent Technologies for Energy and the Environment

Anticipated Market Size

An

ticipa

ted

F

easib

ility

Convergent Technologies for Water, Food, and Bio-fuels 2020

Anticipated Market Size

An

ticipa

ted

F

easib

ility

Converging Technologies For Canada ?

1. "Clean Coal" technologies

2. Bio-nano-health Monitors

3. Implantable Nanoarrays for Livestock

4. "CO2 Sequestration" technologies

5. Environmental nanobiosensors

6. On-time Nano-vaccinology

7. "Biomass Biofuels" technologies

8. Medical "Tricorder"

9. Smart Agri-bio Nanoencapsulation

10. Food-tracking Nanotags

11. Directed Evolution Chips

Extreme Views of Convergence

Hope overReason

Techno-utopia Techno-dystopia

Evidence overHope

Transhumanists

Civil SocietyTechno-Skeptics

Religiousconservatives

Cautiousscientists -

Sagan, Asimov

Trends in Nanotechnology

Smart materials with nano films, structures Integration of functions and structure in membranes,

fabrics, fibers, self powered entities, biomimetic materials

New environmental leaps in performance: e.g water filtration and purification, biocidals, bioremediation and decontamination

Nano sensor networks, tracking capacities – nano-electro-mechanics (eg HVAC embedded)

Wearable personalized nano sensors with data and communications capabilities

Energy and power efficiencies improvements, battery power management

Smart dust capability for widespread human , environments surveillance

Computational devices embedded in consumer, commercial goods

Functional, programmable nanostructures for controlled drug delivery, performance of implants, protheses

New devices, building materials and fabrics that incorporate nano film solar power and are climate responsive

Trends in Biotechnology

• Control, improvements in living organisms• Bio-sensing at the micro and nano level, micro and

nano electromechanics• Integration with wireless, RFID, photonics-molecular

level cameras• Tissue engineering, artificial organs, implants and

protheses• Targeted drug delivery and use of in vitro capacities• Rapid scaleable bio-assays for molecule ID, medical

diagnosis and forensics• Personalized medicine using large data sets of patient

information, disease statistics, gene sequences and genotypes

• Genetically modified insects to counter pathogen carriers

• In silico- computer testing and comprehensive modelling for drug characteristics, side effects and receptor simulation – lab on chip

• Molecular recognition –targeted drug delivery to organs, tumours

Trends in Infotechnology &Ambient Intelligence (ICT)

Progress toward ubiquitous access and embededness; Open source collaborative tools and deeper peer- to

peer functionality; Continued migration towards device and functional

convergence; Infobased manufacturing, claytronics for distributed

fabrication; Broader object based nodes and networks so

everything can be smart and connected; Pervasive E Science and dynamic simulation and

modelling; Gaming for personal and organizational decisions,

learning; Emerging horizons for faster, exponentially more

powerful encryption, quantum information Sustained info markets growth for surveillance, sensor

networks, tracking capacities, nano-electromechanics Wearable, implantable personalized micro-nano-bio

info sensors with data and communications capabilities

Glimpses of the Nanocosm*

• Targeted delivery of nano-scale pharmaceuticals;• Nanoparticles for cancer treatment;• Smart bio-nano materials and implants;• Nanosensor determined synthetic • environments;• Nanosistors – wavicles: logic gates for

molecular DNA based computing;• Impermeable, anti corrosive nano composite coatings• Wearable polymer nano-electronics for

portable, personal bio-cogno self monitoring – computing

* Nanocosm by William Illsey Atkinson, Penguin Books Canada 2003

The Big Uncertainty

When, how and with what implications, nano level self assembly will be practical for not only new materials but new machines with new and amazing programmable capabilities

Pathways Toward Self Assembly

CRN Scenarios

1. New Arms Race: Secret Military Development

2. Positive Expectations - Evolutionary Potential

3. Molecular Anarchy & Redemption

4. Nano-Recede: Elusive Drextech

5. And Not a Drop to Drink

6. Nano-Policy Crisis

7. Breaking the Fever

8. Newshound Notebook 2018