october 2013 precognition research
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From "Introduction to the Scientific Study of Psychic Phenomena" on http://www.wiziq.com. Three more live classes this month, four more in January, eight recordings available from April and July. Join us!TRANSCRIPT
Precognition Research
in Scientific Parapsychology
Nancy L. Zingrone, PhD
www.theazire.orgThe AZIRE Learning Center in Second Life
SLURL: http://maps.secondlife.com/secondlife/Madhupak/153/89/60
Today’s Class Topics
• Precognition Cases and Case Collections
• Precognition Experiments
Extrasensory Perception (ESP)
Telepathy
Clairvoyance
Precognition
Precognition
A form of ESP in which the target is some
future event that cannot be deduced from
normally known data in the present.
M. A. Thalbourne, A Glossary of Terms Used in Parapsychology (2003)
Precognition
O An undefined sense that something terrible is going to happen (or something wonderful)
O A uncharacteristic change in behavior that seems to avoid some danger
O A realistic vision or dream that brings details of something on the horizon
O A sudden sense of knowing that moves you to do something altogether different — to save yourself, or others
Larry Dossey, The Science of Premonitions (2010)
“The non-sensory, non-inferred foreknowledge of a future event is
precognition or premonition.”
Larry Dossey
Cases“Precognitive experiences are probably nearly as common as acorns under oak trees.”
Louisa E. RhineESP in Life and Lab, 1967
Form of ExperienceDreams (literal, symbolic)
Intuition / Impressions
Bad Feelings / Anxiety
Hallucinations(visual, auditory, other)
Motor Automatisms
Herodotus on King Croesus (reigned c. 560–546)
Croesus sent delegates to the oracle of Delphi asking if he should attack the Persians.
According to Herodotus they were told “that if he should march against the Persians he should destroy a great empire” (I: 53).
Abraham Lincoln’s DreamW. H. Lamon, Recollections of Abraham
Lincoln (1895)
“I heard subdued sobs, as if a number of people were weeping. I thought I left my bed and wandered downstairs . . . What could be the meaning of all this? . . . I kept on until I arrived at the East Room, which I entered . . . Before me was a catafalque, on which rested a corpse wrapped in funeral vestments . . . 'Who is dead in the White House?' I demanded of one of the soldiers. 'The President,' was his answer; 'he was killed by an assassin!‘ ”
Butler-Dwyer Dream Case: 1959
Rita Dwyer: Research chemist.
Edward M. Butler: Rita’s co-worker.
Rocket fuel exploded in Dwyer's lab, she was badly burned.
Butler rescued her from the fire.
Butler had a recurring dream about saving Dwyer from a fire. He saved Dwyer’s life doing exactly what he had "rehearsed" in the dream.
Rita Dwyer
William Fletcher Barrett(1844-1925)
Irish Chemist & Physicist
Credited with helping to found the American Society
for Psychical Research
Interested in a variety of cases, including death-bed
witnesses
Frederic W. H. Myers
(1843-1901)
Society for Psychical Research
Founded in February of 1882
Classical scholar, theorist, early psychologist,
developed the theory of the subliminal mind, wrote
Human Personality and Its Survival After Bodily Death
Eleanor Sidgwick(1845-1936)
Society for Psychical Research
Founded in February of 1882
Methodical investigation of mainly spontaneous cases, with methodological refinements surroundings the level of corroboration available for the cases
Theodore Besterman
(1904-1976)
Was active in the SPR
from 1927 through 1935 as the Research Officer, collaborated with J. W.
Dunne who was known for his study of his own
precognitive experiences
H. F. Saltmarsh(1881-1943)
Joined the SPR in 1921
Two primary interests, precognition and the
survival of personal identity beyond bodily death, also
conducted some mediumship investigations
Some Pre-Rhine Research
O Publication of individual cases in the SPR proceedings (first one by Dr. William Barrett, in 1884)
O Publication of case collections (first one by Eleanor Sidgwick, 250 cases considered, in 1888; then Myers, 85 cases considered, in 1895 and Saltmarsh, 50 years worth of published cases considered, in 1934)
O Dream experiment conducted with volunteers (first one by Theodore Besterman, 3 series, 43 subjects, 430 dreams, 45 of which were precognitive, in 1932)
Sidgwick, E. (1889). On
the evidence for premonitions. Proceedings of the Society for
Psychical Research.
Evidence from dreams suggestive, but not conclusive for
premonitions
Dreams about: Death, Accidents, Winners of races, Trivial Incidents, Symbolic Dreams
Eleanor M. Sidgwick(1845-1936)
Eleanor M. Sidgwick’s 1889 Study of Cases
Pre-Rhine research approaches:O Emphasized analytical treatment of
cases for the purpose of uncovering features, patterns, types, possible conventional explanations
O Experimental work focused on single individuals, or groups of individuals engaged in a free response task such as dream telepathy, drawing experiments
O Advantages: Closer to “life”O Disadvantages: Difficult to establish
as evidence
Saltmarsh’s “Perfect Precognitive Case”:
O Case must have been told or recorded prior to the event precognized
O Include details so that chance foreknowledge is precluded
O Narrow limits of time for fulfillment, and narrow description of place or event
O Not inferable from knowledge gathered by conventional senses
O No one else has knowledge of the event, so that telepathy could be ruled out
O Excluded hyperesthesia
Enter the Rhines …
The remit:O To take the spontaneous phenomena of
experience and mediumship and operationalize it for laboratory testing:O Variations on a card-guessing regime:
O Telepathy: One sender concentrating on a card, one receiver guessing the card, a statistically analyzable matching of “call” to “card
O Clairvoyance: One perceiver guessing at hidden cards
O Precognition: Calls recorded before cards were prepared for guessing
Research problems peculiar to precognition:
O If precognition exists, how do we know a clairvoyance test measures clairvoyance and not precognition?
O What if an experimental participant is seeing the next target or something else?
O Do experimental results really tell us something about spontaneous experiences?
Still, the results were very good …
O Strong evidence in the Rhine team’s data for positive scoring in experiments with a precognitive set-up over life of the lab, with unselected subjects
O Meta-analysis from 1935-1987, still strong evidence: O 309 studiesO 42 investigatorsO 2 millions trialsO 50,000 subjects
O Overall z = 11.41, wildly significant
Trying to GetCloser to
Precognition in Life
Click icon to add picture
Case collections still being compiled from 1937 through
the 1960s
Drawing experiments being conducted at the Rhine until
the early 1940s
Reneé Warcollier, Upton Sinclair, and others were
using open ended methods of ESP testing closer to spontaneous cases
Stanley Krippner & Montague Ullman (1960s)
“The DescentFrom the Cross”Max Beckmann,
1917, Oil on Canvas
Target for a Successful
Dream Telepathy Session
O Prof Chris Roe, Andrew Hodrien & Laurrie Kirkwood (England) at the 2012 Convention (Durham, NC)
O Tested 40 participants on Precognitive Remote Viewing and Precognition Ganzfeld
O Target pool = 40 target sites using Google’s interactive maps (10 sets of 4) chosen for distinctiveness, aesthetics and interest
O 30% hit rate for the RV trialsO 35% hit rate for the Ganzfeld trialsO No correlations with personality, experience, but
participants who were more absorbed in the task, less physiologically aroused and had less internal dialogue did better
From recent Parapsychological Association conventions …
Results of free-response precognition tests overall …
O Dream studies since Maimonides significant but less strong than Maimonides
O At-home dream studies show strong effects, less costs, less logistical complications
O Meta-analysis from 1935-1997 showed a stronger significance for precognitive experiments than clairvoyance, but similar effect sizes
From recent Parapsychological Association conventions …
O Jon Taylor (Spain): The Nature of Precognition (presented at the 2013 conference in Viterbo, Italy)
O Precognition is the fundamental form of psychic functioning.
O Precognition is more likely to occur when the future event produces a strong emotional impact.
O Precognition is more likely to occur when the time interval between “now” and “then” is shorter.
O Belief in precognition has an impact on results in laboratory tests.
Main presentiment researchers …
Dick Bierman, Amsterdam/UtrechtDean Radin, IONs
Julia Mossbridge, Northwestern Patrizio Tressoldi, Padova
More basic elements …
O Standardized Target Pool of 600-700 photos
O Emotional (sometimes violent or erotic) targets
O Calm targets
O Task presentation:
O Target selected and shown for 3 seconds
O 10 second inter-trial period
O Repeat 30-40 trials in one sitting, about 15 minutes
O Continuous recording of physiology detection variable
Common hypotheses and analysis …
O That prior to the appearance of the target picture, the participant’s physiological activity changes
O Changes to higher arousal in advance of seeing an emotional photo
O No changes in arousal in advance of seeing a calm photo
O Analysis focuses on:
O Continuous recording of the physiology shows a statistically significant increase in arousal levels 3-4 seconds prior to the target picture appearance
Meta-analysis results from Mossbridge, Tressoldi & Utts …
O 26 studies from 1978 through 2010
O Results provide strong evidence for a presentiment effect
O Studies show consistency across experimenters, laboratories, language groups, detection methods
O Effect Size is small
O More work needs to be done on alternative explanations
O More work needs to be done on the presentiment process
But What Else Could It Be?
Coincidence
Failures to Predict ignored
Subconscious use of currently available
information(sensory / via ESP)
Psychokinesis
Implications
Expansion of Perception
Can the Future Be Changed?
The Nature of Time
Implications for Free Will
Thanks for your Attention!
email: [email protected]
www.theazire.orgThe AZIRE Learning Center in Second Life
SLURL: http://maps.secondlife.com/secondlife/Madhupak/153/89/60