october 2009 harrisonburg & rockingham county real estate market report
TRANSCRIPT
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8/14/2019 October 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report
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October 2009
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Real Estate Market Report
and Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker,
Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors
provided courtesy of
November 9, 2009
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November 9, 2009
1 7/ / 3:1 :3
Perhaps our local real estate market is starng to pick up a bit of steam, or perhaps
were seeing more closings as a result of the $8,000 tax credit and historic low rates.
Either way, despite sales being o 20% this year compared to last year, there wereas many home sales in October 2009 as there were in October 2008. This increase
in sales volume, however, may have been in response to more exible sellers. The
median sales price has fallen 4% year-to-date, and the average sales price has fallen
2.5% year-to-date. Though declines, these are tremendously small shis comparedto most other real estate markets in Virginia and the country as a whole.
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County November 9, 2009
HOME SALES REPORT
# Home Sales 2008 2009 % Change
October --- 62 62 0.00%
Year To Date 824 663 -19.54%
824
663
2008 2009
Median Sales Price 2008 2009 % Change
October $197,000 $184,748 -6.22%
Year To Date $197,900 $190,000 -3.99%
824
663
2008 2009
$198k $189k
Average Sales Price 2008 2009 % Change
October $226,057 $205,617 -9.04%
-
824
663
2008 2009
$198k $189k
2008 2009
$225k $220k
ear o a e , , - .
Average Days on Market 2008 2009 % Change
October 123 163 32.52%
824
663
2008 2009
$198k $189k
2008 2009
$225k $220k
2008 2009
157
190
Year To Date 165 187 13.33%
824
663
2008 2009
$198k $189k
2008 2009
$225k $220k
2008 2009
157
190
2008 2009
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
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November 9, 2009
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Real estate sales increase and decrease seasonally, and as we head into the winter,
sales typically start to decline. This year was no dierent, with fewer home sales
in October than in November, but since we matched the October 2008 sales pacein October 2009 (despite an overall 20% decline between 2008 and 2009), perhaps
well exceed the November 2008 pace this month. It wouldnt be too much of a
surprise if we did, as the (second of three versions of the) tax credit was set to expire
on November 30th. This tax credit deadline now extends through July 1, 2010, whichmay connue to encourage sales in our local market.
200
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Month-By-Month Home Sales History
2005
175
2006
2007
2008
2009
150
ndoSales
100
wnhom
e&Co
75
86
95
77
71
62
75
ingleFamily,T
37
5357
51
25
50Si
0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
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While it is only a small plateau, the long-term (me-adjusted) sales trends showing a
leveling o over the past few months. This happened quite tangibly in October 2009
since there were 62 home sales, the same amount as took place in October 2008.This rolling twelve month sum of home sales shows us the bigger picture of the
momentum of the market. Hopefully we will connue to see stability in this market
indicator as we move through the next six months --- perhaps aided by the rst me
buyer ($8,000) and long term resident ($6,500) tax credits.
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Time-Adjusted Home Sales Trends :: All HomesSum of Preceding 12 Months
1,600
1,800
1,200
1,400
1,000
600
800
200
400
0
Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
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November 9, 2009
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This graph provides excellent overall insight into the performance of the residenal
real estate market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. We see, via the yellow
bars, that the pace of home sales will likely again show a decline when 2009 drawsto a close, though we are not likely to see another 25% decline as we experienced
between 2007 and 2008. The median sales price, shown with the blue line, connues
to stay relavely stable, though with a slight decrease when comparing 2008 and
2009. This decrease is actually a bit larger when considering the changes in thecontext of moderate year to year inaon.
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price TrendsSingle Family Homes & Townhomes
1,507
1,669
95,
100
95,
500
0,
000
250,000
1,600
1,800
+11%
-14%
1,153
1,324
,
1,248
$192,
983
$ $
$19
$200,000
1,200
1,400
+14%
-13%
+15%+14%
+1% + .
829
1,071
936
0 $149,
00
0 $169,
90
$150,000
1,000
-25%
+29%
- +4%
+17%
+14%
663
$116,
000
$122,
900
$122,
588
$127,
70
$100,000
600
800+6%
.
$50,000
200
400
$00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
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Single family homes connue to show a moderate decline in median sales price, as
shown by the blue line in this graph. We have now seen an overall decline of 7.8%
between 2006 and 2009 year-to-date. This averages out to an approximate 2.5%decline per year during this me frame. This decline is unfortunate for home owners,
but is quite mild within the context of sales price and value declines seen in most
other parts of Virginia and the naon as a whole. The pace of single family homes
also connues to slow, with only 456 home sales thus far this year, as compared tothe total of 654 sales in 2008.
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price TrendsSingle Family Homes
1,024 1,025 $226,8
00
$223,
57
5
$215,
000
09,
000
$225 000
275,000
1 000
1,200
n/a-11% -1% -4%
868851
880909
798$210,
000
$
$175,000800
+16%
-12%+3%
-2%
+24%
+8%
674654
239
,000
47,
000 $1
70,
000
$125,000600
-18%
+9%
+2%+8%
+16%
456
$122,
850
$133,
$136
$
$75,000400
$25,000200
-$25,0000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
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8/14/2019 October 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report
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Between 2006 and 2008, townhomes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County
managed to escape the general sales price declines seen in the overall residenal
market. However, it appears that there will be a small downward shi in this medianhome price by the me 2009 comes to a close. Thankfully, however, there has been a
relavely small year-to-year shi in the number of townhomes in 2009 compared to
2008. This is in contrast to the staggering 37% decline in townhome sales between
2007 and 2008. This smaller decrease (in 2009) may be related to the $8,000 taxcredit for rst me home buyers, as many rst me buyers purchase townhomes.
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price Trends
Townhomes
644
$160,
85
0
$163,8
00
$167,
250
$163,
000
$180,000
600
700
+2%+2%
444
483
529
4500
$140,000
,
500
+33%
-18% -15%
+19%
$89,0
00
$94
,600
$103,
10
8,
200
$118,5
00 $
134,
9
$100,000
$120,000
400
+9%
-37%
+47%
+9%
+5%+10%
+14%
203
282
207
$10
$60,000
$80,000
200
300
+49%
+6%
155
$20 000
$40,000
100
+31%
$00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
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8/14/2019 October 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report
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November 9, 2009
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While our local market sll has an excess of supply of homes for sale (as shown on
the next page), we do sll see a decline in overall inventory levels when comparing
October 2009 to October 2008. Ulmately, however, we will need to see more ofa decline to return to a closer balance between buyers and sellers. If last years
trend is any indicaon, we should connue to see declines in inventory as we move
through November, December and January -- as many homeowners decide to take
their homes o the market during this me frame. This will mean (perhaps onlymarginally) fewer choices for buyers.
1200
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels
932 932
1000
909
866
828
794
838
888904
917 914
866
800
600
400
200
0
Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
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8/14/2019 October 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report
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Another measurement of value over me is shown in the median price per square
foot of single family homes sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County -- pictured
above. As can be seen, this value has gradually shied down since 2006, as we sawin the median sales price of single family homes during this same me period. This
is not an absolute guide on what to expect to pay for a house in todays market, since
this median value includes new homes, very old homes, homes with and without
basements and garages, and many other variaons of homes that could aect theoversimplied value judgement of price per square foot.
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Median Price Per Square Foot TrendsSingle Family Homes
119
$123
$126
$13
0
$13
1
$125
$129
$128
$127
$126
$125
$126
$121
516
$120
17 $
123
$125.00
$150.00
92
0$96
$99
$105
$105
$11
$1
$1 $
1
$100.00
.
$
76
$73
$73
$73
$
76
$77
$7
4 $78
$79
$80
$82
$84
$83 $
86
$87 $
$75.00
$50.00
$25.00
$0.00
2000-Q1 2001-Q1 2002-Q1 2003-Q1 2004-Q1 2005-Q1 2006-Q1 2007-Q1 2008-Q1 2009-Q1
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
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8/14/2019 October 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report
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November 9, 2009
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Expect to pay a bit more per square foot for smaller homes --- it has been that way
for almost 10 years now. The graph above shows how median price per square foot
varies based on the size of the house in queson. Interesngly, the median price persquare foot of mid-sized and large homes have remained relavely closely paired
over the past nine years, but have separated quite dramacally over the past year.
Price per square foot of the largest homes in our market is now just over $100 per
square foot, while the median price per square foot of mid-sized homes is muchcloser to the overall median value for this metric.
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Median Price Per Square Foot by Home SizeSingle Family Homes
$138$140
140
150
0 - 1,499 SF 1,500 - 2,500 SF 2,500+ SF
$123
$133
$128
$123 $123$121
130
$105
$113
$116$122
$119
$115110
120
$84
$89
$93 $94
$92
$106$105
90
100
$77
$71
$74
$77$83
70
80
$68$71 $72
60
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
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8/14/2019 October 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report
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November 9, 2009
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The graph above illustrates the drasc decrease in lot sales that our local market
has experienced over the past several years. With lot sizes smaller than one acre,
most of these lots are in subdivisions, on public water and sewer. The main causefor this drasc decrease is that new construcon has slowed -- most builders are no
longer buying building lots and building houses speculavely. Furthermore, many lot
end users are no longer considering building, because of changing circumstances
with their nances, or because of general economic and market uncertaines. Thedecrease in median lot prices is not surprising, given the large decrease in sales.
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Lot Sales & Median Prices
less than 1 acre
408
$99,
900
$100 000
$120,000
400
450
304
$76,
500
$80,000
,
300
350
201
261
247
$54,5
00
$58,
300
$5
9,
500
$60,000
250
165
,000
$30,
500
$32,
208
$36,
900
$42,
000
$40,000150
200
111
8574
40
$2
$20,000
50
100
$00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
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Land sales of parcels larger than one acre have not decreased as signicantly as
small lot sales have. We connue to see a decline, but aside from the spike in land
sales in 2005, there has always been quite a bit of variaon in the number of landsales happening in a given year. Of note, however, the median price per acre of the
land that is selling has slipped tremendously over the past two years, from a high
of $24k per acre down to the current level of $15k per acre. This is likely to slip a
bit further if land sales connue to decline, or even if they connue to stay at theircurrent low level.
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Land Sales & Median Price Per Acre
1 acre or more
168
$24,
184
$25 000
$30,000
160
180
7,
713
$21,
250
$20,000
,
120
140
87
107
83,
003
$1
$15,
000
$15,
500
$15,000
100
58
76 77
53$8,
245
$8,
333
$9,
535
$1
$10,00060
80
42
33
$8,
234
$5,000
20
40
$00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
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8/14/2019 October 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report
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This graph isolates new or almost new single family homes that have sold for each of
the past ten years. We have seen a steady decline in the number of new construcon
single family homes selling since 2005, but of note, the median price per square footof these homes has not shied as much as we might otherwise expect. While this
metric includes houses with signicant variaon in their characteriscs (basement,
garage, lot size), this price per square foot metric can likely be a helpful rule of thumb
in discussing price per square foot or building costs with a builder.
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
New Construction Single Family Home Sales TrendsNumber of Sales, Median Price Per Square Foot
186
200180
200
138 137140
158
139$144
$136
150140
160
89
121
109
14
$133
$15
$146
100
120
70
$87 $
94 $
99
$105 $
1 100
60
80
5040
00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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Most homes that sell (64%) are selling (and closing) within six months of coming
onto the market. This, of course, does not factor in the many (many) homes that
languish on the market and do not sell -- leading to a higher average days on marketstasc. Given that it typically takes 45 - 60 days to move from a raed contract to
the closing table, it is quite remarkable that a full 32% of home sales in the past six
months have taken place within 3 months of the date when those properes came
on the market. This means that they were under contract within the rst 30 or 45days of being listed, which is likely a surprising gure for many hopeful sellers.
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Days on Market Analysis
' - '
< 2 years
4
1%
0 - 3 months
1 - 2 years
54
12%
150
32%
9 - 12 months
43
9%
6 - 9 months
64
14%
3 - 6 months
150
32%
Average Days On Market: 186
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
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8/14/2019 October 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report
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November 9, 2009
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The me that it takes to sell a home in todays market varies quite signicantly based
on the price range of the home in queson. For example, a full 38% of homes that
sold for less than $200,000 sold in the rst 90 days of being on the market, whileonly 10% of homes between $300,000 and $400,000 were able to sell in that same
me period. On the other end of the spectrum, only 9% of homes that sold for less
than $200,000 took more than a year to sell, but a full 27% of homes priced over
$400,000 took over a year to sell. The average days on market for homes over $400k(234 days) is 43% higher than that of homes under $200,000 (164 days).
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Days on Market Analysis by Price RangeMay 2009 - October 2009
32% 32% 14% 9% 12%All Homes
0 -3 Months 3 - 6 Months 6 - 9 Months 9 - 12 Months 1 - 2 Years 2+ Years
38% 32% 11% 10% 9%Under $200k
Avg = 186
27% 32% 19% 7% 14% 2%$200k - $300k
Avg = 164
10% 43% 19% 14% 14%$300k - $400k
Avg = 205
36% 23% 5% 14% 23%400k and u
Avg = 219
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Avg = 234
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.