ocean observing subpanel december 7, 2010 recommendations
TRANSCRIPT
Ocean Observing Subpanel December 7, 2010 recommendations
to full ORRAP
2011 Subpanel Work Plan– Develop white paper/recommendations on
role of ocean observing in new National Ocean Policy
– Help identify, document & prioritize socioeconomic benefits of ocean observing, including benefits to industry
– Monitor implementation of ICOOS Act: FACA committee charter, certification, build-out plan, independent cost analysis, & gap analysis
– Monitor IOOS/OOI collaborations
• Needs new ORRAP members –champions of ocean observing member must be chair or vice-chair
• Include members of other ocean observing committees (UNOLS ocean obscommittee, IOOS Program FACA committee, OOI advisory committee, other?)
• Add new members with ocean observing expertise – users of ocean obs products
Subpanel changes
Accelerating the Decision Making Process for Renewable Ocean Energy Projects: A Forum to be Hosted by the
ORRAP Industry Sub-panel
The Industry Sub-panel of the Ocean Research and Resources Advisory Panel (ORRAP) will hold a collaborative forum to identify methods to accelerate the decision making process for ocean renewable energy projects. The Forum will be held in April 2011, in Washington, D.C., at the offices of the Consortium for Ocean Leadership.
Purpose
There is increasing social and government focus on encouraging the development of non-traditional energy sources, including harnessing ocean renewable energy. However, the present state of federal, state and local processes for deploying offshore renewable energy projects, to be sited in either coastal or outer continental shelf waters, while evolving, remains complex and, sometimes, poorly coordinated. The Forum will bring together regulators and individuals with real-world experience to discuss pervasive impediments to the development of projects. The outcome of this Forum will be specific suggestions, for ways to expedite the decision making process for ocean renewable energy projects, with results to be forwarded by ORRAP as policy guidance to the Administration.
ORRAP Education Sub-panel Priorities-Recommendations for the National
Ocean Council1-Ocean literacy in the general population – Public, informal education and outreach. Example opportunities include:•Get children out into nature (No Child Left Inside) as a means for teaching environmental principles •Educate the public on the interrelatedness of oceans and climatechange, especially through aquariums and other informal science education venues.•Educate upstream populations about their waterways’connections to ocean and coastal systems•Include the Great Lakes in discussions about the oceans and coasts•Engage under-represented and under-served communities, especially in recognition of changing demographic patterns
2-Workforce development. Example opportunities include:•Use results from the NOPP-funded MATE Center study to promote workforce development•Enhance websites and recruitment tools to aid applicants in applying for federal jobs
ORRAP Education Sub-panel Priorities-Recommendations for the National
Ocean Council- Cntd.
3-Investment needs and policies. Priority opportunities include:•Broaden the outdated thinking of “ocean-atmosphere coupling” to include oceans, atmosphere, inland water, and social sciences•Recognize the value of knowledge from traditional communities•Coordinate content of new and existing education reports
ORRAP Education Sub-panel Priorities-Recommendations for the National
Ocean Council- Cntd.
Opportunities for the New Administration• Restore America’s strength in STEM disciplines by making ocean,
coastal, and Great Lakes EOE a priority on par with research priorities at all relevant federal agencies.
• Designate NOAA as the lead agency to coordinate the integration and evaluation of ocean EOE nationally to maximize the impact of federal investments across all agencies.
• Establish standards and evaluate EOE effectiveness to ensure that EOE priorities and outcomes are documented and reported by federal agencies to the appropriate advisory/oversight groups.
• Engage the private sector and governmental agencies at all levels to work collaboratively with colleges and universities to retrain and retool our existing workforce.
ORRAP Education Sub-panel Priorities- Recommendations for the National Ocean Council1. Ocean literacy in the general population – Public, informal
education and outreach.2. Workforce development.3. Investment needs and policies.
Update on the Ocean Acidification Task ForceUpdate on the Ocean Acidification Task Force
IWGOA
OATF?
IWGOA OATF
OATF AccomplishmentsOATF Accomplishments IWGOA Incorporated OATF Recommendations into IWGOA Incorporated OATF Recommendations into
Strategic PlanStrategic Plan•• National Program OfficeNational Program Office
•• Not housed within a federal agencyNot housed within a federal agency•• Inclusive of academia, industry, NGOs, foundations, Inclusive of academia, industry, NGOs, foundations,
federal agenciesfederal agencies•• Exact structure TBDExact structure TBD
•• Enhanced CommunicationEnhanced Communication•• Significant existing international collaboration and Significant existing international collaboration and
interactionsinteractions•• Discussions of international meetingDiscussions of international meeting•• PI meeting of funded OA researchers at WHOI in March PI meeting of funded OA researchers at WHOI in March
2011 planned, approx. 150 to attend2011 planned, approx. 150 to attend
IWGIWG--OA questions for the OA questions for the ORRAP OA Task ForceORRAP OA Task Force
1) Assuming there will be a National Program Office 1) Assuming there will be a National Program Office with a Steering Committee, how we might best with a Steering Committee, how we might best structure it to get input from academia, industry, structure it to get input from academia, industry, NGOs, private foundations, state and local NGOs, private foundations, state and local governments, etc.?governments, etc.?
2) How we might foster international collaborations on 2) How we might foster international collaborations on OA research that go beyond the range of Southern OA research that go beyond the range of Southern Ocean, EPOCA and SOLASOcean, EPOCA and SOLAS--IMBER coordinated IMBER coordinated activities. Are there other OA communities and activities. Are there other OA communities and stakeholders we should be contacting as well?stakeholders we should be contacting as well?
OATF Foundation InteractionOATF Foundation Interaction•• Sven Huseby represented OATF at Foundation Sven Huseby represented OATF at Foundation
meetings on OAmeetings on OA–– October 2010: Palo Alto, CAOctober 2010: Palo Alto, CA
–– November 2010: London, UKNovember 2010: London, UK
–– December 15, 2010: NYCDecember 15, 2010: NYC
Foundations Seeking advice of what to supportFoundations Seeking advice of what to support International collaboration (travel, bilateral research)International collaboration (travel, bilateral research)
Centers for Excellence (COE) on OA (similar to PISCO) Centers for Excellence (COE) on OA (similar to PISCO) should be established to jumpstart OA research in the USshould be established to jumpstart OA research in the US
Foundations will hire a coordinator on OAFoundations will hire a coordinator on OA Should be on OATF and on National Program Should be on OATF and on National Program SSCSSC
Future OATF Tasks Future OATF Tasks ––Renew TOR To Continue until National Program Office is Renew TOR To Continue until National Program Office is
Instituted, or 12 monthsInstituted, or 12 months
•• Asked by IWGOA to Review IWGOA Strategic PlanAsked by IWGOA to Review IWGOA Strategic PlanMarch 2011 releaseMarch 2011 releaseNRC will reviewNRC will review
•• Update OATF Report Update OATF Report Field is progressing quicklyField is progressing quicklyNRC report was not available when OATF report writtenNRC report was not available when OATF report writtenAvailable for Review at March 2011 ORRAP meetingAvailable for Review at March 2011 ORRAP meeting
•• Act as FACA oversightAct as FACA oversightProvide continuity of advice to IWGOA until National Provide continuity of advice to IWGOA until National Program Office is implementedProgram Office is implementedEnsures access to individuals outside of Federal agenciesEnsures access to individuals outside of Federal agenciesCould continue on telecon basisCould continue on telecon basis
Pacific Northwest Oyster Emergency
Alan Barton• Failure of larval oyster recruitments in recent years
• Hatchery failure threatens $100M industry
• Ocean acidification a potential factor in failures
• Larval oyster may be “canary in coal mine” for nearshore acidification
• NOAA administered emergency funds ($500K) to Pacific Coast Shellfish Growers Association for equipment and monitoring of water quality at oyster hatcheries in OR & WA
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South winds produce downwelling
Lower salinityΩ>>1 (easy to form shell)Fast growth and good survival of small larvae
North winds produce upwelling
Higher salinityΩ <= 1 (difficult or impossible to build shell)Poor growth and mass mortality of small larvae
Willapa Bay
Slides courtesy of Alan Barton, Whiskey Creek Hatchery Consultant
Managing around the problem• Put small larvae into tanks filledin the afternoon or overnight
‐Works if the suns out
• 24 hour notice‐ Upwelling takes a day or two to start up, so when winds from the North, fill tanks late in the day and spawn like crazy
SPAWNLOTS!
DON’TSPAWN!
Egg Development – delayed mortality
Treated Seawater Control(buffered and degassed) (untreated)
pCO2= 349uatm @ 25°C, pCO2=759uatm @25°CpH=8.25, tCO2=2580.97 pH=7.80, tCO2=2159.54
Initial Survival– 76.7% 65.8%Survival at Day 10- 66.0% 0%
*Seawater conditions were manipulated for egg development ONLYAfter the first water change (t=48hrs), all larvae in the experiment were stored in
untreated seawater, and both groups saw identical water conditions until day 10The Control larvae in this experiment were irreparably damaged during egg development,
but mortality was not observed until day 10Data shown are average values from two replicate 6000 gallon tanks per treatment
Dabob Bay, WA‐ Taylor Shellfish Hatchery
NOAA, UW, PCSGA, PSRF partnershipNewton, Feely, Sabine,etc.
Bellingham, WA‐ Lummi Hatchery
Dabob Bay, WA‐ Taylor Shellfish Hatchery
Gray’s Harbor, WA‐ setting stations
Willapa Bay, WA‐Tokeland, Bay Center, andNahcotta monitoring stations
Netarts Bay, OR‐Whiskey Creek Shellfish Hatchery
2011 Monitoring Stations
Willapa Bay, WA‐Tokeland, Bay Center, andNahcotta monitoring stations
UW,PSI,WDFW,WRF partnershipTrimble,Suhrbier,Kaufman, etc.
Dabob Bay, WA‐ Taylor Shellfish Hatchery
NOAA, UW, PCSGA, PSRF partnershipNewton, Feely, Sabine,etc.
Questions?Questions?
The National Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP) 2009-2010 Update
Ocean Research and Resources Advisory Panel, 8-9 December 2010
Overview of Presentation
• Brief history of NOPP & ORRAP Legislation• NOPP and the National Ocean Policy• NOPP Funded Research• Looking forward
NOPP LegislationThe 1997 Defense Authorization Act (Public Law 104-201) established the National Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP) for two purposes:
1 To promote national goals of assuring national security, advancing economic development, protecting quality of life, and strengthening science education and communication through improved knowledge of the ocean; and
2 To coordinate and strengthen oceanographic efforts in support of those goals by:
a) Identifying and carrying out partnerships among federal agencies, academia, industry, and other members of the oceanographic scientific community in the areas of data, resources, education, and communication, andb) Reporting annually to Congress on the Program.
NOPP LegislationThe 1998 Defense Authorization Act (Public Law 105-85) defined responsibilities of ORAP [now ORRAP]:
RESPONSIBILITIES.—The Council [NORLC] shall assign the following responsibilities to the Advisory Panel:1 To advise the Council on policies and procedures to implement the National Oceanographic Partnership Program.2 To advise the Council on selection of partnership projects and allocation of funds for partnership projects for implementation under the program.3 To advise the Council on matters relating to national oceanographic data requirements.4 Any additional responsibilities that the Council considers appropriate.
NOPP and the National Ocean PolicyNOPP is an effective forum for development of new interagency initiatives and priorities that transcend single agency agendas. As strategic action plans are developed for each of the National Priority Objectives of the National Ocean Policy, it is critical that the interagency ocean community recognize that partnerships and collaboration are critical for the execution of the national priority objectives.
• NOPP and IWG-OP have demonstrated success at Coordinating & Supporting (4) management of our marine environments.
• NOPP and IWG-OP have focused and dedicated resources to Ocean, Coastal, and Great Lakes Observations, Mapping and Infrastructure (9)
• Informing Decisions and Improving Understanding (3) is strongly related to one of the goals from the NOPP strategic plan to promote lifelong ocean education
• The NOPP and IWG-OP agencies have held a long interest in the Changing Conditions in the Arctic (8)
NOPP Funding CriteriaTwo or more agencies collaborate on the funding announcement. This collaboration can include in-kind support.
For Proposers - Team efforts are required among two of the three sectors: academia, industry (including NGOs), and government (including State and Local).
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1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
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NOPP Funding By Agency and Year
USCGUSACE
USGS
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Distribution of NOPP Funding by Sector
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59%
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24%
NOPP ResearchBetween 1997 and 2010, $312.4 million** was spent on 163 research projects.
Figure: FY 1997-2009 investment in NOPP-Funded Activities, including both NOPP-Solicited Projects and NOPP-Managed Activities. Note that the dollar amounts shown are those spent each year; out-year commitments are not shown.
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NOPP-Solicited Projects NOPP-Managed Activities
NOPP ProjectsExamples of the diverse range of NOPP-funded research topics include:
• Long Term Impacts of Deployments of Tags on Whales
• Atlantic Deepwater Canyons• Offshore Renewable Energy• Acoustic Technologies to
Monitor Aquatic Organisms• Autonomous Sensors for
Measurement of Chemical & Biological Properties of Ocean
• Many others!0
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# of Projects Funded
Fiscal Year
FY09 NOPP-Funded TopicsFY09
• Improving Wind Wave Predictions: Global to Regional Scale
• Sensors for Measurement of Biological, Bio-Optical, Optical or Chemical properties of the ocean
• Improving Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting
Results
•19 total funded projects
•$18.7 M in total funding
•USACE, BOEMRE (formerly MMS), NASA, NOAA, NSF, and ONR sponsoredMore detailed information available at www.nopp.org/funded-projects/.
FY10 NOPP-Funded TopicsFY10
•Improving Attachments of Electronic Data Loggers to Cetaceans
•Developing Environmental Protocols and Monitoring to Support Ocean Renewable Energy and Stewardship
•Exploration and Research of Mid-Atlantic Deepwater Hard Bottom Habitats and Shipwrecks with Emphasis on Canyons and Coral Communities
Results
•13 total funded projects
• $21.7 M in total funding (~$27 M with in-kind contributions)
• BOEMRE, DOE, Exxon-Mobil, NFWF, NOAA, NSF, ONR, USGS sponsoredMore detailed information available at www.nopp.org/funded-projects/.
Case Study: Federal Leveraging
• NOPP FY 2010 Topic- Exploration and Research of Mid-Atlantic Deepwater Hard Bottom Habitats and Shipwrecks with Emphasis on Canyons and Coral Communities
• $3M funding contribution from BOEMRE• $3M contribution from NOAA OER for research vessels
and Jason ROV (3 cruises)• $3.4M contribution from USGS for 4 PIs and associate
staff time for 4 years• While the awarded project, led by CSA International,
receives $3M in funding, the total project worth is $9.4M
Development of NOPP-Funded Topics• Typically initiated via interactions among agency program
managers.• Member agencies (plural!) informally propose NOPP research
topics to IWG-OP, which encourages or discourages.• Preliminary interagency partnerships are formed, tentative
levels of support are pledged, and draft solicitation (Broad Agency Announcement or Request for Proposals) language is developed.
• IWG-OP approves funding announcement language, which is then announced by the lead agency as a BAA or RFP.
• Then comes the hard part…
NOPP Funding ProcessResearch topics developed by agencies.
Funding agreements, selection and announcement of funded projects.
Review of panel scores by agency program managers.
In-person panelists meeting led by program managers.
Written reviews submitted for each proposal by panelists.
Peer reviewers (panel) solicited.
Proposal processing by lead agency and NOPP Office.
Submission deadline.
Announcement for funding.
Proposal discussion and scoring made by panel
Excellence in Partnering Award
A core principle in NOPP collaborations has been cross-sector researcher partnerships and multiple agency funding partnerships.
Toward a predictive model of Arctic coastal retreat in a warming climate, Beaufort Sea, Alaska
• Research partners include the University of Colorado (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences & Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research), Naval Postgraduate School, U.S. Dept. of Interior
• Funding partners for this topic included ONR, BOEMRE, NSF, and Shell
• FY 2011 Marine Mammal Detection and Monitoring Funding Period just closed; __ proposals submitted
Looking into the Future• Currently reviewing FY 2011 U.S. Integrated Ocean
Observing System submitted Proposals
• Currently developing a NOPP funding opportunity on near term research for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
• Developing a NOPP fast response mechanism
Long-term collaboration of federal agencies motivated by common needs
The NOPP ApproachIdentify areas that are important to two or more agencies, and that would most benefit from a partnership approachValue PropositionWorking together achieves more, and does so more efficiently, than working alone
What is the bottom line?
Questions/Discussion?
Photo by Tom Weingartner
Reference Slides
Why is Partnering Important?1) Address critical national priorities that cannot be accomplished
by a single agency or sector;
2) Address priority issues that bridge the mandates of individual federal agencies;
3) Contribute to the cutting edge or forefront of interdisciplinary and intersector science and technology;
4) Help ensure that institutional resources are invested and leveraged wisely, while planning for the future; and
5) Provide the necessary flexibility for supporting new, emerging issues that may not yet be part of a “mandate” but are of interest and value to many.
NOPP Funding ProcessResearch topics developed by agencies.
Funding agreements, selection and announcement of funded projects.
Review of panel scores by agency program managers.
In-person panelists meeting led by program managers.
Written reviews submitted for each proposal by panelists.
Peer reviewers (panel) solicited.
Proposal processing by lead agency and NOPP Office.
Submission deadline.
Announcement for funding.
Proposal discussion and scoring made by panel
Proposal Review CriteriaProposals are reviewed based on:• Relevance of the proposed research to NOPP objectives; • Overall scientific and technical merits of the proposal;• Level of support of critical research objectives or
operational goals;• Quality of proposed partnerships;• The offeror’s capabilities, related experience, and facilities
that are critical to the proposal objectives;• The long-commitment of the partners to the proposed
objectives;• The qualifications and experience of the proposed PI and
key personnel; and • Reasonableness of cost.
“Give me half a tanker of iron and I’ll give you the next ice age”J. Martin,quote from WHOItalk in 1988
Ken BuesselerWoods Hole Oceanographic Institution
http://cafethorium.whoi.edu
Summary of Ocean Geoengineering & C mitigation options1. Ocean fertilization to increase carbon sequestration adding iron, nitrogen, other nutrients
- ocean pumps to bring deep water nutrients (and CO2) to surface1b. Ocean fertilization to increase DMS production
- dimethyl sulfide stimulates cloud formation
2. Dispose of carbon in the deep sea (or below sea floor)- liquid CO2, crop wastes, charcoal/biochar- must also consider impacts/costs of massive C removal from land
3. Change ocean chemistry to increase CO2 uptake- takes mega tons of chemical reagents to change alkalinity
4. Make the ocean white (clouds/floats)- treats climate symptoms, so no decrease in CO2 - ocean acidification is not improved by solar management- decreases light, hence algal CO2 uptake decreases
Natural pathway for rapid carbon sequestration in deep sea
Small changes to biopump can have big impacts10 Gt C/yrincrease remineralization depth by 24 meters, decrease atmos. CO2by 10-27 ppm
Can iron (dust) enhance ocean’s “biological pump”?
1. “Just add iron” -small amounts of iron enhance algal growth in some locations
2. Can iron increase ocean carbon sequestration?
most carbon does not reach deep sea, <10%(range 1-50%)
deeper = longer sequestrationcenturies
decades
seasons
P. W. Boyd et al., Science 315, 612 -617 (2007)
13 major iron fertilization experiments since 1993& studies of natural Fe sources
Map of surface ocean nitrate
Chlorophyll (mg m-3)
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R. Barber et al.
Increase in phytoplankton seen after iron additionday day
before 6 15 21
1. add iron2. see “bloom”
- 13 experiments3. see CO2 decrease
- but only in surface
sunlight
What controls the ocean response to iron?“Location, location, location…”
Phil Boyd- U. Dunedin, NZ
Initial conditions matter both for C uptake andC sequestration
- light- temperature- season- winds- biota- currents etc.
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orthSofe
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De Baar et al., 2005
Multiple iron experiments resulted in variable biomass & CO2 uptake
- what about other consequences?
T1171Day 12 .3
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Numerous biogeochemical and biophysical “side effects”. Some may help combatclimate change, some exacerbate it
Andrew Watson- Univ. East Anglia
- other greenhouse gases (DMS, CH4, N2O)
- biophysical effects (light)
Law and Ling, 2001
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What happens below the surface?
Add ironhere
Collect C on sinking particleshere
- not so easy to measure- need longer experiments
Science is certain regarding-1.Small iron additions can stimulate algal blooms & CO2 uptake2.Natural iron rich seas are productive & sequester more CO2
Science is uncertain regarding-1. Will it work?
how much CO2 & how long (potential- 100’s million tons C/yr)
2. What are the ecologicalconsequences?
intended & unintended
3. What is variability & predictability?
especially at larger & longer scales
Ocean Iron Fertilization
What comes next?
Scientific research priorities are clear Larger & longer experiments Follow subsurface fate of C Study ecological consequences Studies of other gases- O2, N2O, CH4, DMS Improve models But who will step up to the plate? NSF? NOAA? DOE? commercial?
International regulation important- London Convention
Science Jan. 2008
Some new science results- Indian/German cruise Jan. 2009
Science News Jan. 2009Controversy in Their Wake, Geoengineering Experiment in Southern Ocean to Begin
ETC 2009
detailed biogeochemical observations35 dayspost Fe addition
V. Smetacek& Naqvi et al.
Some scientific conclusions of LOHAFEX
1. Iron addition stimulated production. Accumulation rates of phytoplankton increased for a very short time only (if at all) because of heavy grazing pressure by zooplankton.
2. LOHAFEX showed that iron fertilization of nutrient-rich (NO3,PO4) waters does not necessarily lead to carbon export and thus CO2 uptake
-> Only diatoms, which are protected against grazing, are able totransport large amounts of carbon to the deep sea.
3. The state and functioning of the whole ecosystem plays an essential role; in particular: the plankton assemblage (initial conditions) and the amount of silicic acid.
Iron fertilization makes no sense here! (from C. Klaas, July ‘10)
DISCOVERY April 2009Adding Iron to Ocean Won't Stop Warming
What can be learned from natural OIF events?
Volcanic ash fuels anomalous plankton bloom in subarctic NE Pacific Hamme et al. GRL Sept. 2010
August, 2008
DISCOVER Oct. 2010Volcano Blast Creates a Natural Test of a Geoengineering Scheme–Which Fails“Despite the huge area of iron addition and the optimal time of year when there was plenty of sunlight, the impact of this August 2008 event in terms of carbon dioxide absorption was quite small,” Hamme said.
BUT0.01 Pg C sequestered = 0.01 Gt C = 40 million tons CO2
or equivalent to 85 million barrels of oil;940 million tree seedlings grown for 10 years
- no harmful effects (no reported decline O2, increase HABs)- pH increased from 8.08 to 8.12 (reduces acidification)- “some evidence” that much of the 0.01 Pg C was exported from the surface ocean- short event/small area
ANDNature, Oct. 2010Sparks fly over theory that volcano caused salmon boom- Could volcanic ash feed ailing fish populations?
“Tim Parsons, one of Canada's most eminent fisheries researchers, has suggested that iron in the ash from the volcanic eruption on Kasatochi island, which spurred a phytoplankton bloom, could have indirectly provided a feast for the salmon”
PNAS March, 2010
Still some skeptical voices-
“The findings establish potential consequences for developing toxic algal blooms in pelagic ecosystems”
“The specific effects of global-scale ocean fertilization are hard to predict, because ocean’s response is dependent upon scale…. Small-scale experiments are inherently inadequate to verify model predictions”
Nature Sept. 2009
Workshop on Ocean Iron Fertilization ResearchJuly 12-14, 2010, Woods Hole (WHOI sponsored)
An international group of scientists met to discuss the scientific motivation for future ocean iron fertilization (OIF) research.
The development of ocean observing systems now make this assessment of OIF possible.
A long-term, large-scale effort will be required to resolve many of the critical questions about OIF and carbon sequestration.
Importantly, OIF type experiments provide unique ways to study how the ocean functions, and have advanced our field in many ways.
A Consortium is being formulated to coordinate research, provide oversight, seek funding and communicate results.
Workshop participants list
Last First InstitutionBuesseler Ken WHOI, Woods Hole Oceanographic Inst.Campos Edmo Inst. Oceanografico U. San Paulo, BrazilChai Fei U. MaineChavez Francisco MBARI, Monterey Bay Aquarium Res. Inst.Dai Minhan U. Xiamen, ChinaGray Les Morgan Group LLCKlaas Christine AWI, GermanyLampitt Richard NOC Southampton UKLeinen Margaret Climate Response FundLohan Maeve U. Plymouth UKMcGillicuddy Dennis WHOIPopova Katya NOC Southampton UKRothstein Lew U. Rhode IslandSaito Mak WHOISaito Hiroaki Fisheries Research Agency, Shiogama JapanStuermer Dan WHOI Office of Applied OceanographyTrull Tom U. Tasmania AustraliaWanninkhof Rik AOML NOAA, MiamiWatson Andrew U. East Anglia, UKWinslow Chris WHOI CFOWhaley Dan ClimosWuebbles Don U. Illinois
Mission statement:
To resolve the impact of iron fertilization on marine ecosystems, to quantify its potential for removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and to improve our collective understanding of the changing ocean
ISIS Consortiumseeking government, private, corporate sponsorsmulti Institutional, internationalopen research, peer review, independent participantswork within London Convention/London Protocol
An Introduction to Geoengineering by “Solar Radiation Management”
(SRM)
Phil Rasch, (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)email: philip -dot- rasch – at – pnl –dot- gov
With thanks to Graham Feingold, John Latham, Alan Robock, Hailong Wang, Rob Wood
Tidbits from four or five papers appearing inPhilosophical Transactions AGeophys. Res. LettersEnv. Res. Letters
CostEffectivenessPerturbation on a natural phenomenaReadiness
May want to combine approaches
Cut emissionsSuck out CO2Brighten Planet
New Scientist
Some Geoengineering ApproachesAssessed as a
“possibly attractive scheme”
Cooling after Pinatubo
Soden et al 2002
Important processes for stratospheric aerosols(from SPARC Assessment of Stratospheric Aerosols, 2006
Sulfate during June, July, August
Impact on Sfc Temperature (JJA)
Rasch et al. (2008)
Robock (2000), Dutton and Bodhaine (2001)
+ 140 W m-2
- 175 W m-2- 34 %
Ozone change due to geoengineeringwith – without geo-engineering (Tilmes et al, 2009)
% change in O3
11
Humans do affect clouds
Simple theory suggests
More aerosol more drops smaller drops more reflective
clouds
•CO2 doubling compensated by (Slingo, 1990):•120% increase in droplet concentrations•40% decrease in cloud drop size•12% increase in oceanic cloud cover
Geoengineering by seeding boundary layer clouds
First suggested by John Latham in 1990 Subsequently explored in a few studies over the last 20 years
The idea is toTake some seawaterConvert it to very small dropletsIntroduce these tiny droplets near the ocean surface. They will evaporate and make tiny salt particles that can act as the Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN)Design the aerosol particles to be optimal CCN that will “outcompete” Natural Aerosols” to make cloud drops.
If we decided to seed 30% of the globe, where might we seed?
(number of months we seed at each location)
Implied Radiative Effect (ΔSWCF --- not exactly forcing because feedbacks are occurring)
JJA
DJF
Surface Temperature Change (compared to control)
2xCO2
+ seeding 20% of the ocean
+ seeding 70% of the ocean
Sea Ice is affected by global warming and geoengineering
Summer sea ice goes away with a doubling
of CO2
Ice returns with geoengineering
It is possible to overdo the effect
Precipitation Change(compared to today)
Change from geoengineering by
seeding 20% of the ocean
Precipitation Today
Jones et al 2009
Possible Influences on Ocean Ecosystems:
TemperaturePrecipitation /freshwater & salinityMixingOcean circulations
UpwellingENSOMOC
Total SunlightDirect/diffuse sunlightUVB
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LIMITED AREA FIELD EXPERIMENT: EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN
Rob Wood, Chris Bretherton: University of Washington
Hugh Coe, Keith Bower, Tom Choularton: University of Manchester
Phil Rasch: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Graham Feingold, NOAA ESRL
Phase 1: Injection and Dispersion of salt aerosols in the marine boundary layer
Injection stack Aerosol plume
Stacks of runs, different distances
Do the aerosols get bigger?Where do they go?– Can we locate them entering a cloud?How long do they last?Can we see their effect on the cloud?
Phase 2:Single source
cloud responses (“salt‐track”)
Aerosol plume
Satellites
Cloud layer
Aircraft 2: Radiation, remote sensingradar, lidar, spectral and broadband SW and LW radiometers, microwave rad.)
Aircraft 1: In-situ measurementcloud and aerosol chemistry and microphysics, turbulence, atmospheric state
Phase 3:Cloud responses in a 100x100 km limited area
Aerosol plume
Satellites
Cloud layer
Aircraft 3: Radiation, remote sensingradar, lidar, spectral and broadband SW and LW radiometers, microwave rad.)
Aircraft 1/2: In‐situ measurementcloud and aerosol chemistry and microphysics, turbulence, atmospheric state
Ship, mobile facility
Jerry Miller, OSTP Michael Weiss, CEQ
Ocean Research and Resources Advisory PanelDecember 9, 2010
National Ocean Council1
www.WhiteHouse.gov/oceans
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An America whose stewardship ensures that the ocean, our coasts, and the Great Lakes are
healthy and resilient, safe and productive,
and understood and treasured so as to promote the well-being, prosperity, and
security of present and future generations
National Ocean Council2
• Establishes our Nation’s first ever National Policy for Stewardship of the Ocean, our Coasts, and the Great Lakes
• Creates an interagency National Ocean Council to provide sustained, high-level, and coordinated attention to advance the National Policy
• Prioritizes 9 categories for action that seek to address the most pressing challenges facing the ocean, our coasts, and the Great Lakes
• Establishes a flexible framework for effective coastal and marine spatial planning to address conservation, economic activity, user conflict, and sustainable use of ecosystem services
3National Ocean Council
• Establish any new regulations
• Restrict any ocean uses or activities
• Include a zoning plan or map
• Slow down or halt current or pending actions
National Ocean Council4
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(1) our Nation’s first ever National Policy for the Stewardship of the Ocean, Our Coasts, and the Great Lakes (National Policy);
(2) a strengthened governance structure to provide sustained, high‐level, and coordinated attention to ocean, coastal, and Great Lakes issues
(3) a targeted implementation strategy that identifies and prioritizes nine categories for action that the United States should pursue
(4) a framework for effective coastal and marine spatial planning (CMSP) that establishes a comprehensive, integrated, ecosystem‐based
approach to address conservation, economic activity, user conflict, and sustainable use
National Ocean Council5
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• Protect, maintain, and restore the health and biological diversity of ocean, coastal, and Great Lakes ecosystems and resources;
• Improve the resiliency of ocean, coastal, and Great Lakes ecosystems, communities, and economies;
• Bolster the conservation and sustainable uses of land in ways that will improve the health of ocean, coastal, and Great Lakes
ecosystems; and
• Use the best available science and knowledge to inform decisions affecting the ocean, our coasts, and the Great Lakes, and enhance
humanity’s capacity to understand, respond, and adapt to a changing global environment.
National Ocean Council6
7National Ocean Council
• Support sustainable, safe, secure, and productive access to, and uses of, the ocean, our coasts, and the Great Lakes;
• Respect and preserve our Nation’s maritime heritage, including our social, cultural, recreational, and historical values; and
• Exercise rights and jurisdiction and perform duties in accordancewith applicable international law, including respect for and preservation of navigational rights and freedoms, which are essential for the global economy and international peace
and security.
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8National Ocean Council
• Increase scientific understanding of ocean, coastal, and Great Lakes ecosystems as part of the global interconnected systems of air, land, ice, and water, including their relationships to humans and their activities;
• Improve our understanding and awareness of changing environmental conditions, trends, and their causes, and of human activities taking place in ocean, coastal, and Great Lakes waters; and
• Foster a public understanding of the value of the ocean, our coasts, and the Great Lakes to build a foundation for improved stewardship.
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• Establishes a National Ocean Council
• Stronger decision-making and dispute-resolution process
• Formally engage state, tribal, and local entities through establishment of a coordinating committee
• Strengthen the link between science and management through a establishment of a steering committee
• Renewed and sustained high-level engagement with clear requirements for meetings
National Ocean Council9
National Ocean CouncilNational Ocean CouncilPrincipals/DeputiesPrincipals/DeputiesCoCo‐‐Chairs: CEQ/OSTPChairs: CEQ/OSTP
Steering CommitteeSteering Committee(CEQ, OSTP, Staff Director, (CEQ, OSTP, Staff Director,
and Chairs of the IPC)and Chairs of the IPC)
National Economic National Economic Council Council
National Security National Security CouncilCouncil
Governance Coordinating Governance Coordinating CommitteeCommittee
State/Tribal/LocalState/Tribal/Local
Ocean Research and Ocean Research and Resources Advisory PanelResources Advisory Panel
Ocean Resource Management Ocean Resource Management Interagency Policy CommitteeInteragency Policy Committee
Chair/CoChair/Co‐‐ChairChair
Ocean Science and Technology Ocean Science and Technology Interagency Policy CommitteeInteragency Policy Committee
Chair/CoChair/Co‐‐ChairsChairs
Working groups could be retained or established as standing or ad hoc Sub-Interagency Policy Committees (IPCs): e.g., Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning, Ocean Acidification, Ocean Observations, Mapping, Ocean Education, Climate Resiliency and Adaptation, Regional Ecosystem Protection and Restoration, Water Quality and Sustainable Practices on Land, and Arctic.
The Extended Continental Shelf Task Force and other designated interagency committees, as appropriate, would report to the Steering Committee and coordinate with the two IPCs.
ReportingCoordinationCommunication
one State representative each from:
AlaskaCaribbean
Great Lakes RegionGulf of Mexico Region
Mid-Atlantic RegionNortheast Region
Pacific IslandsSouth Atlantic RegionWest Coast Region
(9)
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• Four priority objectives to improve the way we do business:✓Ecosystem-based management✓Coastal and marine spatial planning✓ Inform decisions and improve understanding✓Coordinate and support
• Five areas of special focus:✓Resiliency/adaptation to climate change and ocean acidification✓Regional ecosystem protection and restoration✓Water quality and sustainable practices on land✓Changing conditions in the Arctic Ocean✓Ocean, coastal, and Great Lakes observations and infrastructure
12National Ocean Council
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Rather than managing for individual species
Considers the entire ecosystem
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Implement comprehensive, integrated, ecosystem‐based coastal and marine spatial planning and management in the United States
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Increase knowledge to continually inform and improve management and policy decisions
Better educate the public through formal and informal programs
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Better coordinate and support Federal, State, tribal, local, and regional management
Improve coordination and integration across the Federal Government
• Four priority objectives to improve the way we do business:✓Ecosystem-based management✓Coastal and marine spatial planning✓ Inform decisions and improve understanding✓Coordinate and support
• Five areas of special focus:✓Resiliency/adaptation to climate change and ocean acidification✓Regional ecosystem protection and restoration✓Water quality and sustainable practices on land✓Changing conditions in the Arctic Ocean✓Ocean, coastal, and Great Lakes observations and infrastructure
National Ocean Council17
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Strengthen resiliency of coastal communities and marine and Great Lake environments
Strengthen their abilities to adapt to climate change impacts and ocean acidification
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Establish and implement an integrated ecosystem protection and restoration strategy that is science‐based and aligns conservation and restoration goals
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Enhance water quality in the ocean, along our coasts, and in the Great Lakes by promoting and implementing sustainable practices on land
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Address environmental stewardship needs in the Arctic Ocean and adjacent coastal areas in the face of climate‐induced and other environmental changes
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Strengthen and integrate Federal and non‐Federal ocean observing systems, sensors, data collection platforms, data management, and mapping capabilities into a national system and integrate that system into international observation efforts
Photo credit: Rutgers
Take such action as necessary to implement the policy set forth in the executive order and the stewardship principles and national priority objectives as set forth in the Final Recommendations and subsequent guidance from the Council
Participate in the process for coastal and marine spatial planning and comply with Council certified coastal and marine spatial plans, as described in the Final Recommendations and subsequent guidance from the Council
Prepare an annual report of actions taken to implement the order
Coordinate and contribute resources, as appropriate, to assist in establishing a common information management system
Provide assistance to the Council upon request
National Ocean Council23
• NOC Deputies met September 24; Principals met November 9
• Governance Coordinating Committee nominations are under consideration
• Establishing the Ocean Resource Management Interagency Policy Committee
• Incorporating the Ocean Science and Technology Interagency Policy Committee
• Planning CMSP workshop for Spring 2011
• Meeting with stakeholders, experts, and interest groups
• Developing processes for engaging the stakeholders and the general public in various aspects of NOC activities
National Ocean Council24
• Lines of Communication between NOC and ORRAP• NOC Principal level, Deputy level and Steering
Committee • NOC Meeting Schedule• Relationship of NOC Subcommittees and JSOST
and SIMOR• State of the IWGs• NOC Staff Selection• NOC’s Initial Issue to Tackle
National Ocean Council25
National Ocean Council
“America's stewardship of the ocean, our coasts, and the Great Lakes is intrinsically linked to environmental sustainability, human health and well-being, national prosperity, adaptation to climate and other environmental changes, social justice, international diplomacy, and national and homeland security.”
-President Barack ObamaExecutive Order 13547
www.WhiteHouse.gov/oceans
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